This report summarizes how each team has done so far this season and could act as a guide for how to improve your respective teams. I’ll probably update this every few weeks or so, but could increase the frequency if there’s demand for it. Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions for stuff to add.
Roto Standings Over Time
This chart shows the standings for if we were in a roto league, where each team is ranked by how well they did in each stat category (12 points for 1st place, 1 for last). Brett B has been in the top spot for most of the season, while it’s a close battle for the next four spots between Mitch, Jon, Shawn and myself. The 3-week moving average tab shows the same chart but on a rolling 3-week basis. This is good for capturing short-term trends, such as teams facing COVID absences. These charts are interactive, so you can hover over the points on each team’s line to see how they progressed in the standings.
Best Weeks Overall
This table showcases the top 10 overall weeks of the season, based on taking the ranking of each category among all weeks for all teams, and then summing up that rank. To give an example of how this works, a team with 9 Expected Wins would mean somebody had the best score for each category for the whole season. My team just recorded the best week of the season and it was barely enough to beat Brett B, who has 3 of the top 5 best weeks. Brett G has 2 weeks on this list, and Jeff and Shawn are also represented.
Best Weeks of the Season
|
Team
|
Week
|
Games
|
Expected Wins
|
FGP
|
FTP
|
TPM
|
PTS
|
REB
|
AST
|
ST
|
BL
|
TO
|
|
Big Ballers
|
12
|
48
|
6.96
|
0.479
|
0.867
|
84
|
772
|
227
|
177
|
40
|
29
|
75
|
|
A Brace of Bogdanovic’s
|
5
|
49
|
6.85
|
0.495
|
0.811
|
89
|
724
|
272
|
166
|
39
|
26
|
78
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
11
|
43
|
6.79
|
0.489
|
0.839
|
107
|
703
|
241
|
125
|
40
|
25
|
57
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
4
|
44
|
6.73
|
0.449
|
0.835
|
64
|
725
|
279
|
160
|
45
|
30
|
71
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
5
|
46
|
6.57
|
0.475
|
0.802
|
71
|
726
|
284
|
147
|
48
|
30
|
84
|
|
A Brace of Bogdanovic’s
|
3
|
50
|
6.47
|
0.480
|
0.818
|
99
|
734
|
279
|
117
|
43
|
37
|
93
|
|
Capitol Stormers
|
12
|
48
|
6.42
|
0.519
|
0.703
|
85
|
718
|
285
|
137
|
45
|
33
|
76
|
|
Big Ballers
|
11
|
46
|
6.41
|
0.502
|
0.831
|
48
|
650
|
217
|
143
|
43
|
44
|
62
|
|
Shawn’s Team
|
7
|
41
|
6.37
|
0.471
|
0.806
|
85
|
636
|
232
|
145
|
34
|
34
|
54
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
9
|
46
|
6.23
|
0.501
|
0.864
|
75
|
659
|
246
|
168
|
32
|
20
|
73
|
Actual vs Expected Wins
I’m sure all of us can recall a week where our team was awesome but we happened to be playing a team that was doing even better. There’s also the occasional week where your shooting percentages are awful but your opponent is having even worse luck than you. There will always be a luck component to fantasy basketball, and I thought it would be interesting to try to quantify it.
For each week of the season, I looked at how every team ranked across the stat categories to come up with an “expected wins” metric. I then took the difference between actual and expected to see who has gotten lucky/unlucky. My theory is that this will balance out over the course of the season, but maybe not!
One big caveat to this analysis is that managers will do what it takes to maximize points in each matchup (e.g., if I’m chasing points and assists, I might stream a bunch of guards, which means my field goal percentage might suffer.) This would be reflected in my expected wins total even though I might not have managed my team the same way if I had faced a different opponent.
Shawn’s 8-1 victor in Week 11 is considered the luckiest of the season, netting him 3.73 wins over what was expected if he had played every team that week. Overall, 8 of the 12 teams in this league appear on this list. So most teams can feel grateful for some fortuitous matchups.
Luckiest Weeks of the Season
|
Team
|
Week
|
Actual Wins
|
Expected Wins
|
Win Difference
|
|
Shawn’s Team
|
11
|
8
|
4.27
|
3.73
|
|
Big Ballers
|
5
|
7
|
3.32
|
3.68
|
|
Shawn’s Team
|
9
|
7
|
4.09
|
2.91
|
|
There Goes My Herro
|
7
|
7
|
4.27
|
2.73
|
|
Oliver James First of His Name
|
8
|
5
|
2.27
|
2.73
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
6
|
7
|
4.36
|
2.64
|
|
Purple Reign
|
11
|
8
|
5.36
|
2.64
|
|
Kevin’s Team
|
12
|
6
|
3.36
|
2.64
|
|
A Brace of Bogdanovic’s
|
10
|
8
|
5.50
|
2.50
|
|
A Brace of Bogdanovic’s
|
11
|
6
|
3.64
|
2.36
|
Brett B had one of the best weeks of the season in Week 11, and Jeff was unfortunate enough to be matched against him. Jeff had an average week, but came away with 0 wins - by far the most unlucky week of the season. Harry appears on this list 3 times, while Jeff, Andrew and Brett G each appear twice.
Unluckiest Weeks of the Season
|
Team
|
Week
|
Actual Wins
|
Expected Wins
|
Win Difference
|
|
Capitol Stormers
|
11
|
0.0
|
4.50
|
-4.50
|
|
Young Bloods
|
5
|
1.5
|
4.41
|
-2.91
|
|
Carusos World
|
2
|
1.0
|
3.77
|
-2.77
|
|
Capitol Stormers
|
6
|
2.0
|
4.77
|
-2.77
|
|
A Brace of Bogdanovic’s
|
9
|
1.5
|
4.27
|
-2.77
|
|
Carusos World
|
12
|
2.0
|
4.64
|
-2.64
|
|
Carusos World
|
11
|
2.0
|
4.59
|
-2.59
|
|
Stepback to Freedom
|
12
|
3.0
|
5.59
|
-2.59
|
|
A Brace of Bogdanovic’s
|
8
|
2.0
|
4.36
|
-2.36
|
|
Young Bloods
|
11
|
2.0
|
4.27
|
-2.27
|
League Activity
The plot below shows where everyone ranks in total games played, acquisitions made, and number of category wins on the season. You can hover over each dot to view the values. The teams currently in playoff position tend to be in or near the top-right quadrant, showing the importance of maxing out games and picking up players throughout the season.
Team Summaries
I made these spider plots mostly because they look cool, but you can also get a relative sense of strengths and weaknesses compared to the rest of the league.
