ReArrest Risk and Serious Crime

Checking Risk CNN P-hats for serious vs. non-serious crimes

Face Risk Predictions & serious crime flag

	Dependent variable:
	ML-Face Re-Arrest P-hat
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
serious_crime_flag	0.021***	0.008***	0.008*	0.009**
	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.004)
sexM		0.086***		0.085***
		(0.002)		(0.002)
sexU		-0.001		0.012
		(0.091)		(0.091)
age		-0.001***		-0.001***
		(0.0001)		(0.0001)
raceB		0.062***		0.060***
		(0.003)		(0.003)
raceU		-0.057***		-0.053***
		(0.007)		(0.007)
raceA		-0.052***		-0.049***
		(0.011)		(0.011)
raceI		0.0004		-0.002
		(0.022)		(0.022)
skin_tone_cont		-0.247***		-0.240***
		(0.030)		(0.030)
attractiveness		-0.003**		-0.004**
		(0.001)		(0.001)
competence		-0.008***		-0.008***
		(0.002)		(0.002)
dominance		0.004***		0.003***
		(0.001)		(0.001)
trustworthiness		-0.006***		-0.005***
		(0.002)		(0.002)
felony			0.016***	0.004*
			(0.002)	(0.002)
gun_crime			0.027***	0.005
			(0.004)	(0.003)
drug_crime			0.025***	0.020***
			(0.003)	(0.002)
violent_crime			0.019***	0.005**
			(0.003)	(0.002)
property_crime			0.028***	0.023***
			(0.002)	(0.002)
Constant	0.222***	0.208***	0.194***	0.187***
	(0.001)	(0.008)	(0.002)	(0.008)
Observations	9,603	9,603	9,603	9,603
Adjusted R2	0.003	0.279	0.045	0.294
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Detention outcome and serious vs. non-serious crimes

	Dependent variable:
	Final detention outcome
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
serious_crime_flag	0.211***	0.092***	0.102***	0.031
	(0.014)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)
p_hat_rearrest		0.443***	0.465***	0.360***
		(0.042)	(0.048)	(0.048)
sexM			0.053***	0.038***
			(0.011)	(0.011)
sexU			-0.155	-0.085
			(0.413)	(0.400)
age			0.001	0.001**
			(0.0004)	(0.0005)
raceB			-0.068***	-0.071***
			(0.012)	(0.012)
raceU			0.031	0.060**
			(0.030)	(0.030)
raceA			-0.054	-0.034
			(0.048)	(0.047)
raceI			0.069	0.047
			(0.101)	(0.097)
skin_tone_cont			-0.172	-0.159
			(0.136)	(0.131)
attractiveness				-0.004
				(0.006)
competence				-0.014**
				(0.007)
dominance				0.004
				(0.005)
trustworthiness				-0.006
				(0.007)
felony				0.204***
				(0.009)
gun_crime				0.008
				(0.015)
drug_crime				-0.037***
				(0.011)
violent_crime				0.037***
				(0.010)
property_crime				0.049***
				(0.009)
serious_crime_flagTRUE:p_hat_rearrest		0.454***	0.433***	0.347***
		(0.121)	(0.121)	(0.118)
Constant	0.212***	0.113***	0.103***	0.091**
	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.023)	(0.036)
Observations	9,603	9,603	9,603	9,603
Adjusted R2	0.023	0.040	0.047	0.105
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Testing AUC differences