Introduction

It has been suggested that the climate-change independent “Voices of” movement will lead to a wipe out of The Greens at the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This post attempts to quantify the potential imapct of “Teals” candidates on the Greens vote.

Seats Targeted by Voices Groups

The “Voices of” Wikipedia page has a reference for seats where Teals are either confirmed or rumoured to be running.

All divisions identified as being potential Teal targets are currently Liberal held.

There is a Voices of Cooper listed however a Google search failed to reveal any “Voices of” activity relating to this seat.
As Labor and Greens attracted 68% of first preferences in 2019 so it is doubtful that a “Voices of” campaign would target this seat. I have removed this seat from consideration.

Currently 12 targets seats have “Voices of” candiates.

Greens Primary Vote in Teal Targeted Seats

While The Greens polled 10.40% of the primary vote nationally at the 2019 federal election, their vote is significantly stronger in Metropolitan areas than in Non-Metropolitan.