Gowanus Rezoning : Demographics and Flooding
Research Context:
Background Information:
November 2021 the New York City approved the The Gowanus Rezoning plan, which was first proposed during the Bloomberg administration, while now-Mayor de Blasio was still serving District 39 on the City Council. It was limited to 12-story buildings with 20% affordable housing at first, but since Council member Brad Lander was elected to replace de Blasio, the desire to upzone has grown. The new and current plan, which was developed in consultation with developers, provides huge tax discounts and credits to developers while requiring relatively few community benefits.The Gowanus rezoning proposal spans 80 blocks, including Bond Street on the west, Baltic Street on the north, 4th Avenue from Atlantic Avenue to 15th Street on the east, and Hamilton Avenue on the south. It is the de Blasio administration’s single most major rezoning proposal. The plan would add 8,200 new homes to the neighborhood, bringing additional 20,000 residents to the area.
The new plan gives permision for the construction of skyscrapers of 22 to 30 stories on both sides of the Gowanus Canal, as well as in other areas. According to current trends, 70% of the new residences will be high-end luxury flats with monthly rents exceeding $3,000 per month.
The Gowanus Canal neighborhood used to be home to a number of businesses that generated toxic garbage that seeped deep into the ground. The tract of land known as Public Place contains coal tar at depths of 150 feet and will require ongoing monitoring following treatment; this is the area where a school and the most of the affordable housing will be erected. The city is also cutting back on the amount of time it spends cleaning this region.
The Gowanus Canal is one of the most contaminated water bodies in the United States as a result of nearly a century of industrial and governmental negligence. In fact, the Gowanus is so polluted that the federal government declared it as a Superfund site in 2010 owing to the immediate threat to community health. Not only is the Gowanus Canal filled with industrial garbage, but it also has a pathogen level that poses a health danger by acting as a breeding ground for antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
The majority of the area that will be rezoned is in FEMA Flood Zone A, which means it will be inundated the most if another Hurricane Sandy or Ada occurs. Environmentalists and others are encouraging us to avoid building more dwellings in flood zones, which would put more people at danger.
The plan is presented to the public as rezoning of a white, wealthy neighborhood being to create more housing opportunities for low-income population. Even though most of the new housing will be luxury condos.
Research Questions:
To find out whether the image of the rezoning that is put out in the public is accurate the research focuses on the demographics of Gowanus. Two questions are being asked:
- What is the median income in the neighborhood?
- What is the proportion of white population in Gowanus?
Since the neighborhood is not yet densely populated but many people are is still affected by flooding, another area of observation for this research is creating a Map of the Flooded Areas to see which census tracts are affected the most and comparing them with the number of population. To understand the data in a larger context, the research compares Gowanus flooding alerts with other neighborhoods in Brooklyn to examine whether Gowanus is more affected by flooding than other areas of Brooklyn.
Mapping the income levels in Gowanus
Using the ACS 2019 data that was used for the Rezoning plan
Gowanus Median Income Per Person is $ 47,034, which is more than the Median Income Per Person in Brooklyn $ 31,406 according to the ACS 2019 (datacommons.org) From the plot, it can be observed, that the areas with less white identifying population have less income.
Comparison of ACS 2019 and Decennial Census 2020 Data about Race:
ACS 2019
The data from ACS 2019 used for the rezoning shows the following allocation of percent of white population in Gowanus. Gowanus is a predominately white Neighborhood with 3 tracts with majority non-white population.
Data from the latest Decenial Census
Even though the geographic borders of Census tracts are different in ACS 2019 and Census 2020, this plot still shows Gowanus as a white neighborhood, with even less non-white population. To look of a bigger scale, I looked at the percent of white population in Brooklyn on tract level.
The area where the rezoning is planned has higher percent of white population.
Flooding Alerts in Brooklyn, New York:
New York is heavily affected by flooding. The sewer system is overloaded and recently we have seen many deaths linked to flooding occurring because of hurricanes. Because of the geographic location New York is also being affected by sea level rise, especially the coastal neighborhoods. It was interesting to examine what is the response of the city residents about this issue - is flooding reported adequately and what areas have the most 311 requests regarding the sewer or flooding issues.
311 Service Requests, Filtered with Keywords: Flooding and Sewer:
According to the 311 service request map, there are other areas in Brooklyn that have more flooding related issues than Community Board 6 - where Gowanus is located. This map should not be read as a map of areas mostly affected by flooding. Since Gowanus is less densly populated, the lack of requests might be the reason of lack of reporting.
311 Requests in Gowanus (filtered by Brooklyn Community Board 6):
The area shaded in light blue is the least populated area in Gowanus and reports the least about flooding and sewer related issues. This strengthens the assumption, that the overall Brooklyn map of 311 reqests might not relate to actual amount of flooding problems.
Description of the Data Sources
Population:
U.S. Census Bureau, Median Income, 2015-19 American Community Survey 5-year estimates, using the tidycensus R package. U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Decennial Census, using the tidycensus R package.
Median Income:
U.S. Census Bureau, Median Income, 2015-19 American Community Survey 5-year estimates, using the tidycensus R package.
Flooding Alert:
NYC Open Data, 311 Service Requests from 2010 to Present
Methods:
Percent of White Population is calculated from the total population number in Gowanus by census tract by comparing:
ACS 2019 data
Decennial Census data 2020
311 Service Requests for flooding issues were overlapped with the mostly populated areas to understand the relationship
Findings
Gowanus Rezoning Plan was presented to the public and the media as a white reigborhood being upzoned. The data the committee used was based on census tract level analysis, as you see in this research. After working with the same data, it was clear to me how looking through a narrow lens can give researches the opportunity to manipulate data. Through other research papers done by the students of Methods 1 class, it was made clear that looking only at census tract level doesn’t give us the full picture about the demographics. Areas can be misrepresented according to different geograohic levels.With this research and maps we see that indeed Gowanus has a higher inclome level than avarage income in Brooklyn and has a higher percent of white population, which not necessarily shows the full picture.
The 311 flooding maps also showed that Gowanus is not the area with mostly reported flooding issues. However, neither of the outcomes were backed up by other methods of the primary research - site visits and interviews conducted in Gowanus. The situation seemed to be more alarming and the rezoning - more unjust. Gowanus rezoning has a lot of conflicting arguments and research. With this analysis I have learned that data is not objective and it is very important to have the right sources and methods to analyze it.
Next Steps
As a next step, it would be interesting to look at other data sources relating to flooding. There is more data available from NYC Open Data which can be analyzed with ArcGis. The continuation of his research can be mapping new construction sites, comparing them to flooding data and finding out if the developements are exacerbating the flooding issue by overloading the old sewer system.
Methods Appendix
Sources Used:
What is the “Gowanus Rezone”? - Voice of Gowanus. (n.d.). Retrieved December 18, 2021, from https://www.voiceofgowanus.org/what_is_the_gowanus_rezoneUS Census Bureau, American Community Survey(ACS) 2015-2019
US Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2020