Explanation
In order to determine who I believe to be the true MVP’s in the span of 2018-2021, I chose to build out value on the basis of wRC+, which is in my opinion the most expansive offensive stat for a hitter, FLD, which is the collective defensive metric used to calculate the defensive portion of WAR, and Win Percentage Added (WPA), to explain how much these players affected their teams wins positively or negatively. For 2018, despite Mike Trout being head and shoulders better than all but one player, that one player was Mookie Betts, the American League MVP whose combination of Offense, Defense and clutch made him one of the most valuable players ever. The National League showed possibly an even less debatable race as Christian Yelich was in a league of his own offensively Real MVP’s: Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich My MVP’s: Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich
2019 posed a much closer race in both leagues, with the front runners being Mike Trout and Alex Bregman in the American League, and Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich in the national league. In both cases, one player was a better hitter, while the other was a better defender. In order to find a proper difference, I used linear regression to determine the equivalent values. In this instance, +1 in wRC+ was equivalent to 0.2167 FLD. In turn, Christian Yelich, actually has higher value then Bellinger thanks to his sizeable difference in wRC+. The more interesting case is Bregman and Trout, as Bregman’s defense while not remarkable, was +2.4 on Trout, higher than the 2.167 difference required to re-look, however thanks to Trout’s higher WPA, he gets the nod. Real MVP’s: Cody Bellinger and Mike Trout My MVP’s: Christian Yelich and Mike Trout
The Covid 2020 Season posed interesting issues in the debate of value, as 60 games is hardly enough to quantify players or teams. The National League had two standouts, Juan Soto who smashed his way to a 201 wRC+, and Freddie Freeman (who won the MVP). The American League was more cluttered as it had 3 players who remarkably similar seasons: DJ lemahieu, Jose Ramirez, and Jose Abreu. Starting in the NL, the weird Covid season oddly saw players struggle defensively just as much as offensively, rendering linear regression in a weird position, and because of Freeman’s significantly better defensive season and having a higher WPA than Soto gives him the MVP, although Soto wowed Barry Bonds style with the Bat. Interestingly, the AL MVP Abreu, had more claim to third place than he did to first. Jose Ramirez was +1 on Abreu in wRC+, which is almost identical but better fielding likely yields him second place over Abreu, however Dj Lemahieu’s Offensive was more overwhelming than the American crowd around him. Real MVP’s: Jose Abreu and Freddie Freeman My MVP’s: DJ Lemahieu and Freddie Freeman
2021 featured 2 great sluggers in the American League,the key difference is that one of them was also a very good pitcher, and so we won’t address that case openly but to say, he was a unanimous MVP for a very good reason. The other race was in the National League, and while Fernando Tatis Jr. held his own at the plate, his paltry defense makes Tyler O’Neill just as reasonable a candidate for third place as Tatis Jr. However it was Nationals star Juan Soto (this name should already be familiar) and former Nationals star Bryce Harper. Both were extremely similar, while Soto gets a slight edge in fielding, Harper gets a slightly larger edge in offense (although these two are as close as any #1 and #2 candidate so far) Harper getting the edge in Offense and WPA secures his position. Real MVP’s: Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani My MVP’s: Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani
Fun Facts and Bonus info: 2018: If you look just below the 0 on the Y axis the farthest left point looks like Alcides Escobar, but to the left of that is a microscopic dot representing Chris Davis, whose season was statistically the worst season ever by a qualified hitter. 2018: Mike Trout had the second best season offensively of anyone measured through a full season (excludes 2020) and yet was not an MVP in his own league that season. 2019: Christian Yelich actually was better all around in 2019 than he was in 2018, the year he actually won the MVP. 2019: Overlapping Cody Bellinger’s plot is George Springer, who was nearly identical to Bellinger in hitting and defense, The difference is Bellinger won the MVP in the National league, and Springer finished 8th in voting in the American League. 2020: Despite not being a full 162 game season, Juan Soto’s 201 wRC+ was the highest since Barry Bonds historic 2004 season that saw 233 wRC+ 2021: Despite many fans arguing that 2021 AL MVP would have been Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in any non Shohei season, his late season slump brought him down to Earth, as Bryce Harper was a better hitter and Juan Soto was very similar in the opposite league, Guerrero’s 166 wRC+ wouldn’t have won him an AL MVP in any of the other sampled seasons Best Defensive season: Andrelton Simmons (2018) Best Offensive Season: Juan Soto (2020) Worst Defensive season: Salvador Perez (2021) Worst Offensive season: Chris Davis (2018)