Hot Weather and Motor Vehicle Crashes in NYC
In this report, I seek to examine the link between hot weather in the summer months and the number of car accidents in NYC. In numerous reports and other research there is a proven link between violent crime and warm temperatures. I seek to use the same principles to prove my theory here. My hypothesis: there is a positive correlation between higher temperatures (in the summer months) and the amount of motor vehicle accidents. As heat increases, irritability of drivers during hot summer days can lead to recklessness when driving and in turn, accidents.
I chose New York as it is one of the U.S.’s biggest cities and famous for bad driving and crazy traffic. I was curious if either of those factors would have an effect on the conclusions or if they are just misconceptions about NYC.The Data & Visualizations
To create the visualizations, I utilized data from NYC’s open data portal that dates back to 2014 and holds data on motor vehicle crashes. I also used the software programs Excel and Tableau Prep (assisted by my professor) to organize the data and Tableau to create all my visualizations. For the purposes of thus project, I will define “summer months” as June-August when the average highs are 75 degrees Fahrenheit or higher for the NYC area. According to weather-us.com, temperatures can regularly dip into the mid 90s in August.
Please note, I am limiting the accident parameters to vehicle on vehicle collisions only. Additionally, because there is so much data, my examination will begin in 2016 instead of 2014 when the data starts. 2016 is where accidents begin spiking and we can begin seeing patterns in the data.
Crash Locations - Map
First I made a map that examines and animates all the crash sites by year starting in January of 2016.
Crashes Over Time - Bar Chart
I then made a bar chart displaying number of motorists injured or killed per month over time. Please click through the multiple Tableau tabs to see all visualizations. I also included a smaller scale bar chart (just 2020-2021) where we can clearly see accident spikes in the summer months.
Conclusion
These findings have lead me to a few main conclusions:
1. There is a clear connection between motor vehicle accidents and temperature in the summer months. That can be backed up with data collected from the NHTSA that says 29% more people die in accidents in the summer months.
According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which studies national data on car crashes, there are 29% more vehicle crashes in the summer. The most common reasons for the increased crashes include: traffic congestion, increased teenage drivers, road construction, inclimate weather, tourists, impaired drivers, vehicle equipment failure, and drowsy driving (Crumplar, 2021).
2. It is difficult to tell if the connection is correlation. I.e. because there are so many other factors, it’s hard to say temperature is the main or only reason for the increased accidents.
So, in summary, there is a correlation between motor vehicle accidnts in NYC and hot temperatures of the summer months, but because there are so many other factors at play I cannot conclude the weather is the main or most influential culprit. However, I can say a different (and a possibly more conclusive) answer may be found with more specific data that more carefully examines/documents the weather patterns and vehicle crashes in NYC.