All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. workers in the economy that excludes owners, private servants, unpaid volunteers, farm workers, and unregistered self-employed workers. This measure represents about 80 percent of workers who contribute to gross domestic product (GDP). This measure provides useful information about the current economic situation, as it can represent the number of jobs added or lost in an economy. The increase in employment could indicate that companies are hiring, which could also suggest that companies are growing. In addition, those who took on new jobs increased their personal income, which means (everything else constant) that disposable income also increased, thus promoting further economic expansion (seasonally adjusted)

To measure policy-related economic uncertainty in the United States,the index is constructed from three types of underlying components. The first and most flexible component quantifies newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty. This newspaper-based approach is also used for the majority of other country- and topic-specific indexes.The data comes from two other sources which includes the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire and disagreement among economic forecasters.

The Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market’s expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants

##                        ME      RMSE        MAE           MPE      MAPE
## Training set   -0.8635192  122.9805   93.68851 -0.0004391879 0.0743093
## Test set     -954.5181049 4250.4850 2485.41477 -0.7125414473 1.7460450
##                    MASE       ACF1 Theil's U
## Training set 0.04344261 -0.0102766        NA
## Test set     1.15246696  0.8757145  2.200914

The ARIMA model uses statistical analysis in combination with carefully collected historical data points to predict future trends and business needs. For businesses, it can be used to forecast seasonal changes in sales, forecast inventory needed for the next sales cycle, and estimate the impact of events and new product launches. The ARIMA model is usually indicated with parameters (p, d, q), which can be assigned different values to modify the model and apply it in different ways. Some of the limitations of the model are its reliance on data collection and the manual trial and error process required to determine the most suitable parameter values.

##                     ME     RMSE        MAE         MPE       MAPE       MASE
## Training set   10.4828  121.864   93.84967 0.008883538 0.07445977 0.04351734
## Test set     6232.7978 8045.221 6540.18954 4.223247245 4.45520103 3.03263361
##                      ACF1 Theil's U
## Training set -0.009896016        NA
## Test set      0.909116117    3.9751

ARIMAX is related to the ARIMA technique but, while ARIMA is suitable for datasets that are Univariate, ARIMAX is suitable for analysis where there are additional explanatory variables (multivariate).ARIMAX provides forecasted values of the target variables for user-specified time periods to clearly illustrate results for planning, production, sales and other factors.

##                    ME     RMSE      MAE         MPE       MAPE       MASE
## Training set 7.321873 118.8117 92.50265 0.006202307 0.07299031 0.04289274
##                    ACF1
## Training set 0.02219314

Using Regressors Volatility Index and Uncertainty Index didn’t facilitate us to urge the specified result we had a thought of by testing this hypothesis that certains our theory that the Volatility Index and Uncertainty Index has no impact on employment and our model remains stable here therefore the alternatives can be to use other predictors that have a serious impact on employment on the long haul appreciate inflation, recession or the other varieties of huge jolts within the economy that have a control on employment over a period of time