COVID-19 in Maryland, US: Daily Updates and Insights with Granular Local Data

NOTE
Since March 1, 2022, select data from this site have been presented in an interactive app. This site is not maintained regularly anymore.

(Updated: 2022-10-23 14:04:08 EDT)

  • First of all, everyone, STAY HEALTHY and see what YOU can do!

  • Second, there are many excellent news articles and information sources, but I’m sharing some more questions (see left panel) and answers for those who are curious about a specific situation in Maryland, US - especially including local data. Maryland is my beautiful adopted home state of over 20 years

See footnote for further information about data sources. More questions and answers will be added, as more local data become available.

(Sorry, this is not mobile device friendly, and is best viewed on your regular monitor.)

1. What is the level of new cases? How has it changed?

2. How is Maryland doing, compared to neighboring states and the country as a whole?

Note: The x-axis is date since March. The y-axis is 7-day rolling average of daily new cases per 100,000 population. The light gray box represents the number of daily new cases 10 or lower per 100,000. The light purple line is the US national data.

4. Demographic characteristics of people with confirmed COVID-19 cases and those who died from COVID-19: how has it changed over time?

4.1. Focusing on changes in cases and deaths by 30-day retrospective period

NOTE on race data: composition excluding cases with unknown race. Hispanic was not reported as a separate category until April 15th, 2020.

NOTE on race data: composition excluding cases with unknown race. Hispanic was not reported as a separate category until April 15th, 2020.

4.2. Focusing on changes in cumulative case and deaths

NOTE on race data: composition excluding cases with unknown race. Hispanic was not reported as a separate category until April 15th, 2020.

5. What is the latest mortality, and how has it changed?

As of 2022-10-21 10:00AM, according to Maryland Department of Health, 1.5232^{4} COVID-19 deaths have occurred, that had been laboratory-confirmed. In addition, MD Health Department has published the number of probably COVID deaths since April 15. There have been 274 probable COVID-19 deaths, for which death certificate lists COVID-19 as the cause of death but not yet confirmed by a laboratory test. This means case fatality ratio can be calculated with vs. without the probable deaths (which are thus probable cases as well). Case fatality ratio is:

  • 1.2 % based on only laboratory confirmed cases and deaths.
  • 1.2 % based on laboratory confirmed as well as probable cases and deaths.

Given relatively small differences across groups (i.e., by age, sex, and race, results now shown), only laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths and cases are used throughout this report. I will keep monitoring how the two approaches produce different/similar results, and update as needed.

Below figure shows mortality by county - in terms of both absolute number (red bars) and case fatality ratio (orange bars) as of 2022-10-21.

Below chart shows the mortality trends, since March 18 when the first COVID-19 death was reported in Maryland. Globally in countries severely affected by the epidemic before US, case fatality ratios increased rapidly in the beginning. The rates then stabilized in some of the countries, depending on health systems’ response and characteristics of patient population.

6. How has mortality changed over time by age?

(Note: case fatality ratio including only lab-confirmed COVID-19 deaths and cases. See Question 5 for comparison between case fatality ratios with vs. without probable deaths/cases.)

7. How has it affected population across different races? And, how has it changed over time?

The Maryland Department of Health started publishing data by race (i.e., the number of cases and deaths by race) on April 9th, following an upsetting report about racial disparity in COVID mortality in the US: higher morality in states with higher proportions of black population. Further data - specifically disaggregated by individual people’s race, beyond the state-level analysis - are crucial to monitor and understand the disparity. Also, though initially unavailable, a separate category for Hispanic population is published on April 15. As a resident of Maryland, I am very proud of the state’s rapid action to publish race data!

Now with Hispanic population disaggregated from “other”, the pattern of incidence and mortality by race/ethnicity can be examined better. In terms of rates (important to compare across races with different population sizes), the incidence rate is substantially higher among Hispanic, followed by African American population (blue bars). And, incidence rate among Hispanic population has increased most rapidly - see the second figure below.

However, case fatality ratio is highest among White and Asian Americans (orange bars). This implies that the disproportionately higher number of deaths among African American population in Maryland is because of the higher rate of infection, not because of higher risk of dying among those who are infected. At the same time, it is notable that, though the infection rate is lower, mortality risk is higher among Asian Americans in Maryland.

To understand reasons behind this, we will need to learn more about characteristics of patients by race (e.g., Do Asian Americans with COVID tend to be older and/or have existing conditions in Maryland? Are Hispanic Marylanders with COVID younger than their counterparts?) and any differences in access to health care by race among COVID patients. Also, what can we do to reduce the higher infection rate among African Americans and Hispanic population in Maryland? Finally and importantly, if and when we have better data on race (i.e., less cases with missing race information), the findings on racial disparity may well change (see below note on race data in Maryland).

Hover over each figure to see values and more options.

(Note: case fatality ratio including only lab-confirmed COVID-19 deaths and cases. See Question 5 for comparison between case fatality ratios with vs. without probable deaths/cases.)

(Note: case fatality ratio including only lab-confirmed COVID-19 deaths and cases. See Question 5 for comparison between case fatality ratios with vs. without probable deaths/cases.)

Important note on race data in Maryland:
1. 6 % of cases do not have race information. This is likely because private labs are not required to report race. All data shown here is only based among cases and deaths with known race.
2. In Maryland, “Other” population includes: American Indian and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and ‘Two or more races’ - accounting for about 3% of total population in the state. Figures do not include “Other” races, given possibility that Hispanic population might have been included in this category initially.

8. How extensive has testing been? How has the test positivity rate changed?

This is a very important question, since the magnitude of testing over time is critical information to understand the epidemic. I got trend data on testing in Maryland from COVID-19 Case Map Dashboard by Maryland Department of Health also COVID Tracking Project for earlier data. Still, data on the number of new tests are not available between 3/12 and 3/28.

As of 2022-10-21 10:00AM, a total of NA tests have been conducted. There are about 6 million people in Maryland, and this means NA tests have been conducted in every 1000 people.

In the last seven days, test positivity rate was 7 % on average. Ideally, the positive test rate should be below 5%.

Note 1: On May 28th, Maryland Health Department started publishing “total testing volume”“. However, it is unclear what a unit of testing is, since the volume is about 15% higher than the sum of”Number of confirmed cases” and “Number of persons tested negative”, as of May 28, 2020. Until this is clarified, the test positivity in this report is calculated consistently as percent of “number of new confirmed cases” out of “number of new confirmed cases AND number of new persons tested negative.” The number of new cases/persons is a difference between cumulative numbers over two consecutive days, which are published by the state. Then, the test positivity rates are averaged over 7 days.

8. What age groups are affected? And, how has it changed over time?

Currently, the incidence rate is highest, 2.65907^{4} per 100,000 population, among people 20-29 years of age.

(Source: Maryland Department of Health’s Maryland COVID-19 Case Map Dashboard, and Maryland Department of Planning’s Population Estimates by Race and Hispanic Origin for July 1, 2018)

9. How many confirmed cases do we have now, and where are they?

As of 2022-10-21 10:00AM, 1263279 confirmed cases have been reported in Maryland, according to Maryland Department of Health. This means there are 21 people with confirmed COVID-19 per 100 population in the state.

Below figure shows number of confirmed cases (gray bars) and infection rates (i.e., number of confirmed cases per 100,000 population) (blue bars) by county, as of 2022-10-21.

Hover over each figure to see values and more options.

Data sources:
1. All COVID-19 data for Maryland come from Maryland COVID-19 Case Map Dashboard published by Maryland Department of Health. This dashboard presents latest numbers on tests, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths as of 10:00AM on each day. Accessed on 2022-10-23. County-level data from New York Times’ Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count are no longer used, as of July 19, 2020.
2. All COVID-19 data for other US states and countries come from JHU/CSSE, accessed on 2022-10-23.
3. All data on Maryland county population come from US Census Bureau’s County Population Totals: 2010-2019. Accessed on March 29, 2020.
4. Data on Maryland population by age and sex come from Maryland Department of Planning’s Population Estimates by Race and Hispanic Origin for July 1, 2018. Accessed on April 1, 2020.
5. All data on US state population come from US Census Bureau, accessed on March 29, 2020.
6. All vaccination data by county come from US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention —

See GitHub for data, code, and more information. For typos, errors, and questions, contact me at www.isquared.global.

Making Data Delicious, One Byte at a Time, in good times and bad times.