Parliamentary Studies:Speeches and Votes

• We rely on theories (A theory is a set of interrelated concepts, definitions, and propositions that explains or predicts events or situations by specifying relations among variables.)

• And derive hypotheses – more \( X \) –> more \( Y \)

• We test these hypotheses (see if the data support them), by using …

• Models

• Models are a representation of reality

• “All models are wrong, but some are useful” (George Box)

• They look something like this:

\[ y_i = \alpha+x_1\beta_i + x_2\beta_i ... + \varepsilon_i \]

These models (or equations) will try to fit some data. Put very generally and simply, we will have a dependent variable (often denoted \( y \)), and we will see if other, independent variables (often denoted \( x \)) are correlated with it.

• 20% Women in parliament, 10% speaking time!!!

• “participation isn't equal … [then] one democratic standard has fallen”

Searching for power/influence of women in decision making bodies:

• Do female MPs speak more when the leader of the debate is a female minister?

• Do female MPs have more influence when they speak in debates led by female ministers?

• Are female ministers more responsive to female MPs?

• The percentage of words of spoken by women

• Similarity as influence: you are powerful if speakers refer to what you said!

• “Women MPs speak significantly more in debates led by a Woman minister”

• Female MPs are more influential by 10%-30% in debates led by female ministers!!!

• Female Ministers are more responsive to women by 18%-25%!!!

• A reinforcing effect of female leadership: participation–>influence–>responsiveness

• Descriptive and substantive representation implications

• Implications for women's political participation in general

• The Representation of the People Act of 1867 and its impact on parliamentary debate

• Introducing working-class, less educated voters into voting pool

• What impact does this have on behavior of elites and political representation?

Leading politicians understood that after the reform, they had to sell their merchandise to a new crowd. Some noted that new voters were characterized by: “venality…ignorance…drunkeness” and were “impulsive, unreflecting and violent people”.

• Ministers, the face of the party, would talk in a less complex way

• Backbenchers… not so much

• Minister became around 8% easier to understand

• Impact of suffrage extension on MPs behavior, types of representation, political communication

• Maybe “dumbing down” is a necessary development representing a democratization of political language?

• Methodological & analytic creativity

• Rebellion is a costly act (rebels have lower prospects of promotion)

• Government rebels are generally purists thinking the government should produce policies popular among party base

• They grandstand

• They use speeches to communicate their position to constituencies

• Therefore: rebel speeches should be different

                    mps      parties
1          Adam Afriyie Conservative
2          Steven Baker Conservative
3          Graham Brady Conservative
4        Andrew Bridgen Conservative
5           Steve Brine Conservative
6     Christopher Chope Conservative
7            Greg Clark Conservative
8         Philip Davies Conservative
9     Jonathan Djanogly Conservative
10   Jackie Doyle-Price Conservative
11        Mark Francois Conservative
12          Marcus Fysh Conservative
13          Chris Green Conservative
14          Mark Harper Conservative
15       Mark Jenkinson Conservative
16       Pauline Latham Conservative
17         Andrew Lewer Conservative
18 Ian Liddell-Grainger Conservative
19       Karl McCartney Conservative
20         Esther McVey Conservative
21         Huw Merriman Conservative
22         John Redwood Conservative
23     Andrew Rosindell Conservative
24          Henry Smith Conservative
25           Greg Smith Conservative
26        Julian Sturdy Conservative
27       Desmond Swayne Conservative
28          Robert Syms Conservative
29         Craig Tracey Conservative
30       Charles Walker Conservative
31        William Wragg Conservative
32        Jeremy Wright Conservative

The Covid Recovery Group (CRG) is thought to comprise of around 70 backbench Tory MPs, and they claim to have the support of many more. With prominent members including Steve Baker and chair of the 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady, the group is styled on the once highly influential European Research Group (ERG).

(https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/tory-crg-coronavirus-lockdown-lift-rebels-boris-johnson)

1. Rebels are more likely to speak

2. Rebels are going to make longer speeches

3. Rebels express different emotions

4. Rebels use different language (pronouns)

5. Rebels use less complex language

• What do you think? Do we have support for hypothesis 1?

• It basically compares our data with data that implies that voting and speaking to choose are independent

• See that value up there? If our statistical test gives a higher number, the differences are really big

• We have 40.97

• It's off the chart. Rebels want to speak more!

• How do we test that?

“I am very pleased that compulsory mask wearing has not been extended to the hospitality sector, as that would have been deeply damaging to businesses. What is the position of Her Majesty's Opposition on this issue, because I think I heard something slightly different just now from what I heard yesterday?”

When we do sentiment analysis, we:

• classify the polarity of a given text

• We will classify each speech, based on the share of positive/negative words in sentences

• Can be positive/negative/neutral

• Easy: “I like your dog”

• Not so easy: “I don't like your dog”

• Need to take care of valence shifters

• Most negative speech

“I am very pleased that compulsory mask wearing has not been extended to the hospitality sector, as that would have been deeply damaging to businesses. What is the position of Her Majesty's Opposition on this issue, because I think I heard something slightly different just now from what I heard yesterday?”

• Most positive speech

Will the Minister give way? Will the Minister give way? My hon. Friend is the kindest of Ministers. On the question of the new variant's severity, I wonder if she has data to hand about whether any of the new cases of omicron in this country that she mentioned have been detected in patients hospitalised with covid.“

• How do we test that?

• Complex

“Have the Opposition done any analysis of how much it would cost to implement ventilation en masse across educational settings?”

• Simple

“I wish to return to the point I made earlier, and I wonder whether my hon. Friend shares my genuine concern. As he said, we are here today because of a variant that has been discovered.”

• That we can use the web to gather lots of data (email me if interested)

• That rebel behavior (in our case) it significantly different in terms of likelihood of speaking and length of speeches

  • This is also a general, robust result

• That we cannot conclude whether they are different in other regards (further research)

• That we can use social scientific tools to study parliaments

• That you don't always get what you want (as a social scientist)