Vietnam

Yifan Zhou, Katie Lerner, Christina Rodriguez, and Richard Jiao

Figure 1: Flag of Vietnam

Figure 2: Map of Vietnam

The five most populous areas in the country are Ho Chi Minh City (13,312,000), Hanoi (7,785,000), Haiphong (2,103,500), Cantho (1,237,300), and Bien Hoa (1,104,000) (United Nations, 2019).

According to The World Bank, as of 2020, an estimated 37.34% of Vietnam’s population lives in urban areas whereas 62.66% lives in rural areas (The World Bank, 2020).

Little data answers the differences in population densities between rural and urban areas of the country. According to The World Bank, there are 313.925 people per square kilometer of land in Vietnam (The World Bank, 2020).

The Red River that extends through the north of Vietnam is an important features that promotes high trade with China. The capital of the country also falls alongside the Red River (Osborne, 2021).

Demography

Vietnam’s crude mortality rate is 6.4 deaths (per 1000) (United Nations, 2019). This rate is lower in comparison to Vietnam’s northern neighbor, China, which has a 7.3 (per 1000) mortality rate (United Nations, 2019). However, Vietnam’s mortality rate is higher than their southwestern neighbor, Cambodia, which has a crude rate of 6.0 deaths (per 1000) (United Nations, 2019).

Vietnam’s crude fertility rate is 2.05 live births per woman (United Nations, 2019). This is slightly larger than China’s 1.70 fertility rate (United Nations, 2019). Cambodia has a slightly higher fertility rate at 2.48 live births per woman (United Nations, 2019).

The male life expectancy from birth in Vietnam is 71.2 years whereas for females it is 79.4 years (United Nations, 2020).

The infant mortality rate is 17 deaths per 1000 births (United Nations, 2020).

The median age is 32.5 years.

Figure 3: Trends in Mortality Rate and Life Expectancy in Vietnam over time

Over the last 20 years in Vietnam, as seen in Figure 3, the infant mortality rate has continued to drop and the life expectancy has increased (United Nations, 2019).

The median age in Vietnam as of 2019 is 32.5 years old (United Nations, 2019).

Due to different laws in Vietnam, the legal working age is 15 years old. The percentage of the population that is of working age is 69% (United Nations, 2019).

Figure 4: Age-Sex Pyramid for Vietnam

Within Figure 4, the age-sex pyramid for Vietnam, an extreme drop in population growth rate is evident for those around the age of 20/25/30 year olds. This may be attributed to the desire to limit children per couple to only 2 kids in the late 1990s and the early 2000s (PRB, 2003).

Cultural-Linguistic Information

The official language of Vietnam is Vietnamese and it is spoken by about 75 million people in Vietnam (Saxena, 2020). The second most spoken language is English which is spoken by about 51.4 million people in Vietnam (VN Economic Times, 2016). The third most spoken language in Vietnam is Tay, which comes from the Thai family of languages; about 1.7 million people speak Tay in Vietnam (Saxena, 2020).

Figure 5: Geographic Distribution of Vietnamese in Vietnam

This geographical distribution shows the natively Vietnamese spoken areas. Vietnamese is the official and national language of Vietnam and is spoken by almost all people in Vietnam.

Figure 6: Geographic Distribution of English Speakers in Vietnam

This geographical distribution represents the proficiency of English speakers in Vietnam. According to Pagoda Projects, this distribution shows, “the Southeast and the Red River Delta, Ho Chi Minh City’s and Hanoi’s regions respectively, are regions with the highest English proficiency within Vietnam; the North Central Coast, on the other hand, has the lowest proficiency.”

Figure 7: Geographic Distribution of Tay Speakers in Vietnam

This geographical distribution represents the spread of Tay speakers in Vietnam. The red areas represent higher densely populated regions and the yellow represent less densely populated regions. According to Holidify, Tay is mainly spoken in the northeastern part of Vietnam because the Tay ethnic group are mainly farmers who grow rice and make handmade items.

Economic Information

The economy of Vietnam is a socialist-oriented market economy, which is the 37th-largest in the world as measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and 23rd-largest in the world as measured by purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2020. Vietnam is a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the World Trade Organization.

According to a forecast by PricewaterhouseCoopers in February 2017, Vietnam may be the fastest-growing of the world’s economies, with a potential annual GDP growth rate of about 5.1%, which would make its economy the 20th-largest in the world by 2050.

The median adult income of Vietnam in 2021 is 2235.955 USD.

Electrical Equipment is the most important export (USD 26.24 billion)

Education

With the introduction of the new policy termed “doi moi” in 1986, economic mobility in Vietnam has soared which also promoted the development of the whole education system in Vietnam.

Vietnam’s national compulsory education is 9 years. From 1990 to 2019, for example, nine-year compulsory education has become more and more popular in Vietnam, and people older than 25 years of age spend more and more time in education. By 2019, the average number of years of schooling spent by people over 25 was 8.3, up from an average of four years in 1990 (World bank,1990~2019).

The government’s reform of the country’s education system, coupled with a partnership with the World Bank, has also significantly increased the proportion of Vietnamese citizens over the age of 25 enrolled in higher education. In 1990, just 2.8 percent of the population over the age of 25 had higher education, but by 2016, the proportion had skyrocketed to almost 31 percent (World Bank). This is enough to show the success of the Vietnamese government’s reform of its education system. However, in the period from 2016 to 2019, the rate for tertiary school attendance fell to 28 percent.Since the ratio tends to stagnation, In 2020, the Vietnamese government issued the Education Development Strategic Plan for the Years 2008 to 2020, as well as the Higher Education Reform Agenda to further reform the education system and thus promote the popularization of Higher Education.

Vietnam’s economy has developed rapidly from 2008 to 2013 (from VND 18738205.48 in 2008 to VND 39494871.51 in 2013), and the country’s GDP has been growing steadily. During those years, the growth rate of citizens’ income also tends to be stable. It is worth noting that in Vietnam, student spending on higher education as a percentage of adult income remained high. Until 2008, when the Vietnamese government reformed its education system and economic operation mode. The proportion of education consumption has an obvious downward trend – from 56.4484 in 2008 to 34.21589 in 2013. Although higher education spending still accounted for about a third of the average population’s income in 2013, the policies and reform strategies proposed by the Vietnamese government have indeed made Vietnamese people richer than they were in 2008.

Demographic and Socio-economic Trends

Mortality (Christina)

Figure 8: Infant Mortality Rate per Women Age group

As seen in Figure 8, infant mortality has been divided amongst age groups of the female population in Vietnam. Each of the graphs are split by year (MISC2 is data for the year 2000 and MISC4 is data for the year 2011). It does appear in both sets of data that the concern is with infant mortality for older age groups, but within all the data, there has been a decrease in infant mortality rates overall. This is seen through comparing the values on the y-axis as the lowest point of infant mortality rates in 2000 was just below 0.04 (4%) whereas in 2011, it is close to 0.01 (1%). For the older population, (45-49 age group) the infant mortality rate decreased from 0.08 (8%) to 0.06 (6%). It can be presumed that the mortality rates were worse in 2000 due to a lower quality of healthcare. As time progressed it is presumed that Vietnam has had some technological advances within their health care system or it has become more accessible to others. Given that there is a decrease in overall infant mortality rate, it can be inferred that there was an improvement in health care or health-related systems in place for pregnant women. To aid with the higher infant mortality for older women, solely basic healthcare will most likely not be the most helpful. Older women are presumably more at risk when carrying children so they will need special attention and care. A way to address this issue is to offer more affordable doctors appointments which may be complicated as this can become a highly politicized issue. Another way to do so is to offer more support from a doula which can be more affordable, and at times, can be more knowledgeable as their care can be more personalized for the soon-to-be mother. They can also offer more emotional and psychological support which applies the mind-body concern of well-being. This can help treat the concern of higher infant mortality rates for older women in Vietnam in a safe and affordable way.

Age Structures (Christina)

Figure 9: Age Structures (1950-2030)

Figure 9 displays several age-sex structures in Vietnam from 1950-2030. For clarification, the year 2030 has not yet occurred, so this structure represents a prediction in the next decade of the population growth for both sexes. In the year 1950 it is evident the age structure was slightly growing, but the population was not large. In the year 1990, there was a very large population spike which is mostly the result of the post-Vietnam war era. Even during the war, many refugees and Americans settled and “repopulated” in South Vietnam which, in turn, also contributed to the influx of population. Moving into 2020, it can be seen that there is a significant drop in population, as a result of intervention where couples were encouraged to limit children to two per pair. This occurred through the 1990s into the 2000s. The 2030 prediction seems to have a maintained population but still decreasing. This can be seen as alarming if the population continues to decrease, since there will be a higher population of elderly people who are unable to work. Economically, it becomes a concern that the younger, and smaller, generations cannot financially afford to support all the elderly people from the larger generations. For governments it is very concerning as well because, financially, they lose a lot of money also trying to support the growing eldery population for the next few decades. A potential treatment to the solution is to remove encouragement on limiting children per families. The government would play a large role in influencing the limitations of fertility rate. For those that are resistant to having more children due to financial reasons, since it does pose a very large financial burden for parents, the government could inform families of the overall economy of Vietnam and how their money would go towards elderly rather than their own family. It will be a few decades before future generations accept the social expectation shift away from the limitations. It is important as well for the government to make it clear that a population boom is also economically concerning since overpopulation would become of concern for everyone. The emphasis should be on population control and maintenance. These tactics can be applied to ensure that Vietnam can prevent these economic challenges in the soon future.

Income Inequality (Katie)

Figure 10: Bar Graph of Varying Household Income Quintiles

In Vietnam, there is a rising increase of income inequality. Due to factors like the transition to a market economy in the 1990s and a new found emphasis on export-led industrialization rather than agricultural and small business development, the gap of inequality continues to grow. The rising inequality disproportionately negatively affects younger people in Vietnam as well as marginalized groups like disabled people, women head households, migrants, and ethinic minority farmers. In order to define the trend of the rising income inequality in Vietnam, we must first acknowledge the threat it imposes on Vietnam’s socio-economic development. Young people in Vietnam have far fewer opportunities for higher earnings and better socio-economic status than young people ten years ago. And when looking at quantitative data, we see that according to the Palma ratio, “which measures the ratio between income share of the richest 10% and the poorest 40% of the population, increased from 1.48 to 1.74 between 1992 and 2012. In some provinces the income gap between the richest and poorest 20% is as much as 21 times” (United Nations, 2019). The UN also found that the 210 richest individuals in Vietnam earn enough money in one year to lift 3.2 million people out of poverty. When looking at this data and these studies, we are left to wonder how Vietnam’s income inequality could rise so quickly. But, according to the UN, “from the late 1980s, the market-based reforms known as Doi moi or “Renewal” were characterized by rapid economic growth and widespread poverty reduction. In barely a generation, Vietnam has gone from one of the world’s poorest countries, with frequent food shortages, to a lower middle-income economy that is a leading exporter of rice, seafood, coffee and other commodities” (United Nations, 2019).

Migration (Katie)

Figure 11: Pie Chart of Migration Reasons in Vietnam

In Vietnam, internal and international migration have increased significantly since economic reforms were introduced (Anh, et al., 2003). The trend of migration in Vietnam can be directly linked to economic growth and development. This can be seen by the link between places where economic growth is highly concentrated and the amount of people who migrate there (Anh, et al., 2003). In terms of internal and external migration, Vietnam’s internal migrants make up a substantial population (UNESCO, et al., 2015). Trends of internal migration show that internal migration in Vietnam is mostly intra-regional, in which the Southeast in particular has more migrants from other regions (UNESCO, et al., 2015). According to Migration in Vietnam, “during the five years preceding the 1999 census, nearly 4.5 million persons changed their place of residence (rural commune or urban ward) in Vietnam. These people constituted 6.5% of the total population aged five and over. Among these migrants, 55% moved within a province, and 45% moved across provincial boundaries within Vietnam.” (Anh, et al., 2003). As seen throughout this research, internal migration and intra-regional migration is largely affected by economic factors rather than background variables like sex, age, marital status, etc. (Anh, et al., 2003). Due to Vietnam’s rapidly growing industrial and urban economies, internal migrants move from rural areas to more industrial areas in order to try and escape poverty (Coxhead, et al., 2015). Because of the increased migration due to economic factors, net income is increased for both the individual and the economy as a whole (Coxhead, et al., 2015). However, in order to best identify this trend between migration and economic factors, we must also take into account that the migrants who benefit from labor mobility tend to be more educated and more qualified than those from their rural cities who never end up migrating (UNESCO, et al., 2015).

Population Trend (YIFAN)

Given Vietnam’s turbulent history, the country is making great strides in population growth. Currently, Vietnam’s population is 97.3 million people, a number expected to hit 100 million by the end of 2024. Vietnam’s population is projected to hit its peak of 109.78 million people in 2054.

Vietnam’s population is increasing by about 1% each year, adding about 1 million people per year. Despite this, the annual population growth rate is decreasing each year and eventually, the population will begin decreasing after 2055.

Vietnam’s fertility rate in 1980 was 5 births per woman, which has decreased to 2.0 births per woman. This is the result of the government’s “two-child policy” that limits births by issuing contraception, fining couples that have more than two children, and prohibiting them from moving to urban centers.

Economic challenges and opportunities caused by demographic processes (YIFAN)

Carbon emissions are growing faster in Vietnam than any other country in the world. CO2 emissions per capita in Vietnam are equivalent to 2.7 tons per person. As shown in the graph, Vietnam’s Co2 emission rate becomes higher in recent years. Generally, the GDP growth and and CO2 emission have a positive correlation. Looking back to the GDP contribution we can see that industry and manufacturing consist of large portion of the GDP of Vietnam. What’s more, among the emission categories, Power Industry consists of the largest part of contribution. From the first chart we can see that, GDP growth in Vietnam maintains a stable rise in recent years. According to a forecast by PricewaterhouseCoopers in February 2017, Vietnam may be the fastest-growing of the world’s economies, with a potential annual GDP growth rate of about 5.1%, which would make its economy the 20th-largest in the world by 2050. Thus anticipation could be drawn that, as the GDP keeps climbing high, Carbon emission would be a larger challenge for Vietnam’s economies.

Except for the fact that Vietnam is positively developing its heavy industry, we can see from the second chart that Transport follows Power Industry as the second large contributor. On one hand, this its due to the development of the car industry, on the other hand, though population growth rate is inclined to decline in recent years in Vietnam, it is still positive and it will cause larger Co2 emission in terms of transportation and buildings.

Though Vietnam is facing a fierce challenge carbon emission, Vietnam is also targeting carbon emission neutrality by 2050. Vietnam is taking steps on embarking on a roadmap to reduce coal-fired power generation. The country aimed to double the installed wind and solar power generation capacity to 31-38 gigawatts by 2030. However, this requires technology and fund, so whether Vietnam can achieve its goal remains unknown.

Fertility (Richard)

As you can see from the bar chart above (downloaded from the World Bank), the fertility rate per 1,000 Vietnamese residents declined slightly between 2009 and 2019. In 2009, the fertility rate was 17.22 percent per 1,000 people, but in 2019, it fell to 16.45 percent. In general, although the fertility rate in Vietnam is gradually declining, the decline is not exaggerated. In other words, the fertility rate in Vietnam is relatively stable between 2009 and 2019.

Climate Change (Richard)

Due to its unique geographical position, Vietnam’s economic operation model is based on its agriculture and animal husbandry. Since agriculture and livestock are linked to climate problems, due to its coastal location and low coastline, Vietnam will be one of the countries most affected by climate change in the world. As can be seen from the chart above, drought, disease, floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes are the major natural disasters affecting Vietnam’s economy. Hurricanes, floods, and droughts were the most frequent natural hazards and caused direct economic losses of about $20 billion to Vietnam’s agriculture, aquaculture, and road infrastructure industries during the decade. So for Vietnam, how to predict and deal with climate change is the key to its economic development.

Bibliography

Vietnam - population.un.org. (n.d.). Retrieved November 18, 2021, from https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/1_Demographic%20Profiles/Viet%20Nam.pdf.

Vietnam- co2.png. retrieved November 18, 2021, from https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/vietnam#year-on-year-change-what-is-the-percentage-change-in-co2-emissions

Mortality (Christina)

Huong, D. L., Minh, H. V., Janlert, U., Van, D. D., & Byass, P. (2006). Socio-economic status inequality and major causes of death in adults: A 5-year follow-up study in rural Vietnam. Public Health, 120(6), 497-504. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2006.03.003

The authors ran this study to follow up on prior research on the relationship between mortality and socioeconomic status. The sample was taken from rural areas of northern Vietnam which assists with understanding the influence of socioeconomic status differences. Researchers tracked deaths through verbal autopsy where they were in contact with both doctors and the immediate families. They looked at socioeconomic status from a household perspective rather than individuals since they also measured death through families. The data analyses revealed that non-communicable diseases were one of the leading causes in deaths in both male and female groups. This is relevant to the group project because it connects several important data aspects of looking at rural communities, low socioeconomic status, and mortality rates. This allows the group to formultate treatments in each of these categories to alleviate the issue.

Lee, H. Y., Do, D. V., Choi, S., Trinh, O. T. H., & To, K. G. (2016). Trends and determinants of infant and under-five childhood mortality in Vietnam, 1986-2011. Global Health Action, 9(1).

The objective of this article was to look at the infant and young children mortality rates in Vietnam and link them to potential causes to ultimately lower the rate of deaths. Researchers utilized Multiple Indicator Cluster surveys as a means to collect data on women and children per household that was randomly selected. Data analyses revealed higher death rates for males rather than females. This study also found that death rates have notably decreased especially in rural areas of Vietnam. This article informs the group project on mortality rates for these specific age groups, but it also provides insight as to which socioeconomic factors and location influence these data.

Ngo, A.D., Rao, C., Hoa, N.P., Adair, T., Chuc, N. T. K. (2010). Mortality patterns in Vietnam, 2006: Findings from a national verbal autopsy survey. BMC Res Notes 3(78). https://doi.org/10.1186/1756-0500-3-78

This study is year specific to 2006 data focusing on death rates. The researchers utilized verbal autopsy reports to measure the death rates in Vietnam. This method includes interviewing the immediate relatives that have experienced a death in the family for details. The results of the study found that there was a higher mortality rate for males rather than females. Researchers concluded that the verbal autopsy reports are not an adequate method to measure death for an entire nation. This data does inform mortality rate for the country, but the researchers admitted the challenge in quality of it. This article is helpful for the country report because it informs that data can be questionable when implemented in a nation-wide manner.

Age Structures (Christina)

Cuong, N. V. (2021). The ageing trend and related socio-economic issues in Vietnam. Human Geographies, 15(1), 53-65. DOI:10.5719/hgeo.2021.151.2

This paper looks to discuss the issues and relationship between socioeconomic status and age trends in Vietnam. The authors prefaced the article with mentioning that Vietnam has an ever increasing aging population and as it continues to rise, the more noted that eldery people are living by themselves even in their old age. The article connects the sole living with socioeconomic status and investigates whether the likeliness of being alone is correlated with it. The authors made note in their careful selection of surveys for data collection so as to include the elderly population. This is helpful for the group project because it discusses impending concerns with the age structure of Vietnam that their population may decrease.

Minh, N. T. (2009). Dynamic demographics and economic growth in Vietnam. Asia Pacific Economy, 14(4), 389-398. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860903169365

The study focuses on the age structures in Vietnam and their relationships to economic growth. This article created a model to measure the relationship utilizing data collected from self-report instruments over a longitudinal period of time. The introduction of the study informs the reader of age structure context from prior research and data collection. In this text, the authors connect potential reasons or causes for the changes in the age structures over time such as government action and socioeconomic factors. The results of the data analyses utilizing the model, the researchers found that the age structures reveal a beneficial pattern suggesting a growing population from present and onward.

Wei, Y., Wang, Z., Wang, H., Li, Y., & Jiang, Z. (2019). Predicting population age structures of China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on compositional data. PLoS ONE 14(4). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212772

This article utilizes prior data from the countries: China, India, and Vietnam, to produce a prediction for what their age structures will look like in the near future - the year 2030. The researchers separated the population into different age groups to predict age structure differences based on these data trends or patterns. The data utilized in this study was collected over the course of over 50 years. The results found that China and Vietnam have a proposed trend that their youth will level off, but India seems to have a decline in this area. This article is helpful for the country report as it compares Vietnam to other Asian countries that are extremely populous and well known. This helps inform the group whether the Vietnamese trends in age structures should be of concern or not since a comparison can be made with the other two countries.

Income Inequality (Katie)

Wells-Dang , A., & Thi Quynh Hoa, V. (2019, May 20). Shrinking opportunities: Social mobility and widening inequality in Vietnam. UNRISD. Retrieved October 25, 2021, from https://www.unrisd.org/80256B3C005BE6B5/search/C0838EC429923FAAC125840000323191.

This article analyzes the recent income inequality in Vietnam. The article focuses on young people’s inability to receive higher earnings and opportunities financially. The article looks at and focuses on the transition to a market economy in the 1990s and how that has affected income inequality now. In this article the UN found that due to export-led industrialization marginalized groups were most affected by income inequality, these groups included ethnic minority farmers, women headed households, and migrants. The article concludes by offering a solution on how to break the cycle of income inequality for young people.

The trend of inequality in income distribution in Vietnam 2016-2020 period. General Statistics Office of Vietnam. (2021, June 22). Retrieved from https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/2021/06/the-trend-of-inequality-in-income-distribution-in-vietnam-2016-2020-period/.

This article defines income inequality in which they note that income inequality is the difference in income and wealth between individuals. The article then goes on to discuss Vietnam’s economy between 2016 and 2020 in which they find that the covid-19 pandemic negatively affected Vietnam’s economy. The authors of this article also touch on the inequality and the gap between the wealthiest people in Vietnam and the poorest people in Vietnam and how that gap is increasing. This article also offers tables that represent the GINI coefficient in urban areas between 2016 and 2020 and one that shows the difference between the lowest and highest income groups in Vietnam between 2016 and 2020.

Inequality in Vietnam: A special focus of the taking stock report July 2014 - Key Findings. World Bank. (2014, July 8). Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/07/08/inequality-in-vietnam-a-special-focus-of-the-taking-stock-report-july-2014.

This article focuses on the rapid growth of increase of Vietnam’s income inequality. The authors point out that income inequality is contributed to by inequality of opportunities, especially for children. This article also offers data from the World Bank and the Institute of Labour Science and Social Affairs in which they find that the perception of inequality of the people they surveyed did not match statistical data of inequality in Vietnam. This data also found other factors that are caused by income inequality such as malnutrition in children and a lack of education.

Migration (Katie)

UNESCO, UNDP, IOM, & UN-Habitat. (2015). Overview of Internal Migration in Viet Nam. https://bangkok.unesco.org/sites/default/files/assets/article/Social%20and%20Human%20Sciences/publications/Brief%2010%20-%20Country%20Brief%20-%20Viet%20Nam.pdf.

This article provides data on Vietnam’s population and internal migration. While considering internal migration, this research points out the main migration destinations and acknowledges that internal migration is usually intra-regional. This article also takes into account the characteristics of migrants offering data such as women representing 52.4% of all migrants in Vietnam. The authors also touch on new working and living conditions after migrating and offer data on the impact of internal migration on those who stay behind and do not migrate.

Anh, D. N., Tacoli, C., & Thanh, H. X. (2003). Migration in Vietnam: A review of information on current trends. https://pubs.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/migrate/G00479.pdf.

This essay offers data and discussion on migration in Vietnam after economic reforms were introduced in the country in 1986. The data shows the demographics of migrants in Vietnam such as age, gender, and field of work. This article also mentions the significant increase in international migration along with internal migration. The essay also discusses the benefits and costs of migration in a country like Vietnam in which it mentions increasing pressure on infrastructure but also a more balanced and equitable regional development through infrastructure.

Coxhead, I., Cuong, N. V., & Vu, L. H. (2015, November). Migration in Vietnam: New evidence from … - world bank. Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/23597/Migration0in0V00from0recent0surveys.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y.

This essay acknowledges the high levels of geographical labor mobility having an effect on migration decisions in Vietnam. This essay uses data in which they find that the probability of migration is associated with characteristics on an individual level, their household, and their community level. This essay collects data from a more narrow group of recent migrants which yielded for more narrow results. In the essay, the researchers discuss having found a connection between migration and income or employment industry.

Fertility (Richard)

Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan Sajeda Amin (2010, July). The Role of Abortion in the Last Stage of Fertility Decline in Vietnam. Retrieved from https://www.guttmacher.org/journals/ipsrh/2010/07/role-abortion-last-stage-fertility-decline-vietnam

The article outlines a number of factors contributing to the annual decline in the average fertility rate of Vietnamese women, highlighting the misperception of abortion as an alternative method of contraception. This article analyzes in detail the unique data from Vietnam’s 2001 National Health Survey and explores the root causes of Vietnam’s fertility decline in terms of household wealth, geographical characteristics of different regions, and ethnic differences among many other factors.

Annika Johansson, Hoang Thi Hoa, Nguyen The Lap, Vinod Diwan, Bo Eriksson (1996,June).Population policies and reproductive patterns in Vietnam. Retrieved from https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(96)90676-5.pdf

The topic of this paper is to explore the gradual decline in average fertility in Vietnam, which, if not curtailed, could accelerate the aging of the Vietnamese population and lead to a series of serious social damage. The target period of this paper is 1945-1970, and women in remote areas or rural areas are selected as survey subjects from 1945-49 to explore the implied relation between their fertility and abortion.

Carl Haub, Phuong Thi Thu Huong (2003,February) An Overview of Population and Development in Vietnam. Retrieved from https://www.prb.org/resources/an-overview-of-population-and-development-in-vietnam/

This article introduces in detail the population growth trend in Vietnam, as well as the population growth trend among different regions. A comparison of the population between 1994 and 1999 shows that although Vietnam’s population grew a lot each year, its rate of growth slowed sharply. By investigating the distribution of population density in different regions of Vietnam, this paper calculates the change of population density per square kilometer in the whole country and obtains more relevant factors affecting the fertility rate in Vietnam. By comparing the data between urban and rural areas, it is concluded that the birth rate in almost all cities is lower than that in rural areas.

Climate Change(Richard)

Michael Tatarski (2018, October) New climate change report highlights grave dangers for Vietnam. Retrieved from https://news.mongabay.com/2018/10/new-climate-change-report-highlights-grave-dangers-for-vietnam/

This article highlights that Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, and discusses the threat to Vietnamese people’s lives, the impact of climate change on economic performance, and the potential benefits it implies. In this paper, relevant data are obtained through field visits and interviews with local people, and the data are used to depict the most real picture of Vietnam under the influence of repeated and changeable climate change.

Publication(2020, November) Climate Risk Country Profile: Viet Nam. Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/publications/climate-risk-country-profile-viet-nam

This article summarizes the various extreme climate problems faced by Vietnam and describes the different negative effects of different climate disasters by analyzing these problems one by one. The paper describes the impact of climate change in a visual way, using data collected from the World Bank, and describes the measures taken by various countries, especially Vietnam, to deal with climate change.

UNU-WIDER(2013,June)Research Brief–The Cost of Climate Change in Vietnam. Retrieved from https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/cost-climate-change-vietnam

This paper presents three reasons why Vietnam is vulnerable to climate change. Vietnam is a large agricultural country with a special geographical location and a low coastline. Based on the unU research project “Development under Climate Change”, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on the above three aspects in detail and points out the potential economic benefits of climate change for Vietnam.

Population Trend (YIFAN)

Haub, Carl. An Overview of Population and Development in Vietnam. https://www.prb.org/resources/an-overview-of-population-and-development-in-vietnam/ This article presents us a comprehensive picture of the population trend in Vietnam since 1979, especially emphasizing on the dramatic population change since last century. This article is relevant to our project because it offers us a whole picture of the population changes and tendency in Vietnam.

Dang, A., Goldstein, S., & McNally, J. (1997). Internal Migration and Development in Vietnam. International Migration Review, 31(2), 312–337. https://doi.org/10.1177/019791839703100203

This article focuses on the nature of the interrelationship between population movement and development as Vietnam continues to move toward intensive market reforms. The overall results of OLS regression indicate that more developed provinces attracted higher volumes of inmigrants, whereas less developed provinces produced more outmigrants, other things being equal. Most of the migrants, especially females, moved to more urbanized and industrialized areas, regardless of their origin home provinces. The study results suggest the importance of interpreting population movement in Vietnam within the broader context of its current transition to a market economy. Government key-policy deliberations must include careful attention to how migration relates to long-term national development.This is relevant to the group project because it connects the internal migration of population and the economic development.

Jones, G. W. (1982). Population Trends and Policies in Vietnam. Population and Development Review, 8(4), 783–810. https://doi.org/10.2307/1972473

This article points out that the population of Vietnam continues to grow rapidly, despite a steady decline in the birth rate since 1976 to a level in the low 30s by 1980. The country, particularly the North, suffers from acute pressure of population on the land. The State Planning Committee plans to step up national efforts in family planning, as well as continue its ambitious program of population redistribution from the overcrowded areas of the North to the more sparsely settled interior regions. This article evaluates demographic trends revealed by recent censuses and the vital registration system; the current status of economic and population planning; and the provision of health care and family planning services and the collection of vital statistics at the commune level. This article is relevant to our project because the author analyzes the population trends in Vietnam and also its consequent policies.

Economic challenges and opportunities caused by demographic processes (YIFAN)

Ha, P.T.T., Kokutse, N., Duchesne, S. et al. Assessing and selecting interventions for river water quality improvement within the context of population growth and urbanization: a case study of the Cau River basin in Vietnam. Environ Dev Sustain 19, 1701–1729 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-016-9822-7

In this study, a multi-criteria methodology is proposed to identify and prioritize interventions for water quality improvement with the aid of computer simulation models. The methodology can be used to elaborate and compare future socio-economic development scenarios to select the best interventions. The results show that fast future population growth in upstream has significant impacts. In 2020, an increase of 116 % of the population in Bac Kan town can lead to an increase of 120 and 135 % in BOD5 and NH4 + median concentrations, respectively, with the implementation of a treatment plant for 10,000 people in Bac Kan town. Therefore, the increase of the domestic wastewater treatment plant’s capacity in Bac Kan town, at least twice as the projection of local government, is necessary. These results will help decision makers to select the best interventions for Cau River basin management. This article is relevant to our project because it points out due to population growth, the river protection and waste water treatment becomes a challenge economically.

Scott Fritzen, Growth, inequality and the future of poverty reduction in Vietnam, Journal of Asian Economics, Volume 13, Issue 5, 2002, 635-657, ISSN 1049-0078, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(02)00173-2.

Vietnam’s economy over the past decade grew at one of the highest rates in the world. The broadly based nature of this growth sent tumbling by over 20% points the proportion of the population falling under an internationally comparable poverty line. Yet this growth has also generated increases in income inequality which, by some measures, threaten to give Vietnam one of the highest Gini coefficients in Southeast Asia within 10 years. This paper examines the dynamic interconnections between growth and equity over Vietnam’s transition to a market economy. It argues that the sustainability of Vietnam’s achievements in reducing poverty is not assured, since greater inequality may undermine both the efficiency with which future growth will reduce poverty and make it politically more difficult to pursue pro-poor policies. The paper reviews the current state of Vietnam’s reform agenda, as it affects prospects for achieving equitable growth in the medium-term. This article is relevant to our project because it points out the economic challenges Vietnam is facing due to population growth and political policy.

Benuyenah, V., & Phoon, M. (2014). Population, Property and Productivity: A Theoretical Prediction of Economic Growth in Vietnam. Journal of Global Business & Economics, 8(1), 1–13.

This paper seeks to identify sustainable economic growth variables in Vietnam and in so doing, the author proposes a model that is parsimonious and useful to the current economic climate. This simple growth model that he proposes identifies three main determinants of economic growth - Population, Property, and Productivity. These determinants are essential for sustainable growth in Vietnam and propose several policy recommendations to achieve these aims. For example, we recommend FDI promotion through the further strengthening of trade and bilateral relationships, incentives to maintain the domestic population such as child tax credits and paid paternity leave, and the provision of subsidies related to the cost of locally sourced building materials. This article is relevant because it presents the future economy growth model.