1 Changes from previous version

  • Replaced change in per capita GDP growth figures from IMF with those from World Bank’s GEP reports
  • Dropped the fractional regression

2 Variable descriptions

Variable Description
coverage % pop living in hh reached by COVID-19 cash transfer
spending Total marginal spending on COVID-19 cash transfers as % GDP
spending_pc Marginal COVID-19 cash transfer spending as share of GDP per capita (ratio of spending over coverag)
pre_coverage % pop receiving cash transfers prior to COVID-19
pre_spending Spending on cash transfers as share of GDP prior to COVID
dig_reg Dummy for whether existing databases used for horizontal expansion
fsi Public service delivery component (P2) of Fragile States Index
non_ct_spending Total COVID-19 spending (excluding spending on cash transfers) as share of GDP
dig_id % pop with a digital ID
dig_xcheck Use of digital ID for cross-checking databases
deaths Total COVID-19 deaths per million up to 31-12-2020
region Country region
eap Dummy for region == East Asia and Pacific
atm Number of ATMs per 100,000 adults
soc_reg_coverage % population included in a social registry
pop_2018 Country population in 2018
rGDPg2020 Real GDP growth per capita in 2020
gdp_per_capita GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $)
log_gdp Log of GDP per capita

3 Kernel density of coverage by digital registration / cross check

## # A tibble: 6 x 2
##   Country     coverage
##   <chr>          <dbl>
## 1 Myanmar        0.503
## 2 Philippines    0.824
## 3 Sri Lanka      0.86 
## 4 Timor-Leste    0.961
## 5 Vietnam        0.276
## 6 Zambia         0.266

4 Correlation matrix of digital ID vars

##              dig_reg    dig_id dig_xcheck
## dig_reg    1.0000000 0.4794406  0.8617094
## dig_id     0.4794406 1.0000000  0.4521009
## dig_xcheck 0.8617094 0.4521009  1.0000000

5 Scatterplot of IMF vs WB GEP growth figures

6 Coverage regressions

In the regressions below the dependent variable is the share of the population in a household that received a COVID-19 cash transfer.

6.1 OLS

Dependent variable:
coverage
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
delta_2020 -0.015 -0.026* -0.025** -0.008 -0.017* -0.016** -0.009 -0.018** -0.017** -0.012
(0.011) (0.013) (0.012) (0.009) (0.009) (0.007) (0.007) (0.009) (0.007) (0.008)
dig_id 0.002** 0.003*** -0.00003
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
eap 0.346*** 0.167* 0.278*** 0.210** 0.289*** 0.237***
(0.107) (0.094) (0.101) (0.100) (0.087) (0.090)
log_gdp 0.194*** 0.108*** 0.077*
(0.029) (0.039) (0.042)
dig_reg 0.384*** 0.373*** 0.253***
(0.056) (0.051) (0.077)
dig_xcheck 0.410*** 0.404*** 0.305***
(0.054) (0.049) (0.084)
Constant 0.201*** -0.035 -0.108 -1.413*** 0.017 -0.014 -0.815*** 0.022 -0.011 -0.586**
(0.070) (0.089) (0.068) (0.196) (0.043) (0.042) (0.275) (0.046) (0.042) (0.297)
Observations 83 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
R2 0.024 0.137 0.285 0.499 0.443 0.540 0.601 0.488 0.593 0.619
Adjusted R2 0.012 0.114 0.257 0.472 0.428 0.522 0.580 0.475 0.577 0.599
Residual Std. Error 0.303 (df = 81) 0.290 (df = 77) 0.266 (df = 76) 0.224 (df = 75) 0.233 (df = 77) 0.213 (df = 76) 0.200 (df = 75) 0.223 (df = 77) 0.201 (df = 76) 0.195 (df = 75)
F Statistic 1.981 (df = 1; 81) 6.095*** (df = 2; 77) 10.095*** (df = 3; 76) 18.653*** (df = 4; 75) 30.587*** (df = 2; 77) 29.734*** (df = 3; 76) 28.249*** (df = 4; 75) 36.702*** (df = 2; 77) 36.920*** (df = 3; 76) 30.486*** (df = 4; 75)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

6.2 Linear regression diagnostics

Plot suggested by Alan for a regression of coverage on delta_2020, dig_id, eap, and log_gdp.

7 Table 3 - Average benefit regressions

The dependent variable is the average benefit size divided by GDP (calculated by dividing spending as a share of GDP divided by coverage).

Dependent variable:
avg_ben
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
delta_2020 -0.0002 0.001 0.0002 -0.00004 0.0002
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
non_ct_spending 0.050 0.063 0.060 0.132
(0.110) (0.097) (0.096) (0.108)
dig_xcheck -0.013*** -0.010* -0.011*
(0.005) (0.006) (0.006)
log_gdp -0.003 -0.002
(0.004) (0.005)
regionECA 0.009
(0.006)
regionLAC 0.001
(0.006)
regionMENA 0.020**
(0.009)
regionSAR 0.004
(0.009)
regionSSA 0.003
(0.007)
Constant 0.022*** 0.025*** 0.029*** 0.049 0.044
(0.008) (0.007) (0.007) (0.032) (0.040)
Observations 68 60 60 60 60
R2 0.001 0.006 0.127 0.134 0.224
Adjusted R2 -0.014 -0.029 0.080 0.071 0.084
Residual Std. Error 0.020 (df = 66) 0.019 (df = 57) 0.018 (df = 56) 0.018 (df = 55) 0.018 (df = 50)
F Statistic 0.043 (df = 1; 66) 0.159 (df = 2; 57) 2.721* (df = 3; 56) 2.135* (df = 4; 55) 1.602 (df = 9; 50)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

8 Table 4 - Spending regressions

The dependent variable is spending as a share of GDP.

Dependent variable:
spending
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
delta_2020 -0.001** -0.001* -0.001 -0.001* -0.0003
(0.0004) (0.0004) (0.0004) (0.0004) (0.0003)
dig_xcheck 0.004** 0.003 0.003* -0.0003
(0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.004)
non_ct_spending 0.089 0.058 0.071
(0.078) (0.067) (0.067)
eap 0.005** 0.003
(0.002) (0.003)
log_gdp 0.003
(0.002)
Constant 0.002 0.001 -0.0004 -0.001 -0.022*
(0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.013)
Observations 77 76 68 68 68
R2 0.051 0.111 0.170 0.222 0.266
Adjusted R2 0.039 0.087 0.131 0.173 0.207
Residual Std. Error 0.008 (df = 75) 0.008 (df = 73) 0.008 (df = 64) 0.008 (df = 63) 0.007 (df = 62)
F Statistic 4.052** (df = 1; 75) 4.559** (df = 2; 73) 4.375*** (df = 3; 64) 4.505*** (df = 4; 63) 4.503*** (df = 5; 62)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01