What team is destined to win the 2022 NBA Championship?

The young NBA season has seen several power-house teams come out to hot starts, including but not limited to the Brooklyn Nets, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Laker,s and Phoenix Suns. These three teams, not unlike other championship contenders, are carried by a select few: The Net’s rely heavily on Kevin Durant and James Harden, the Warriors have been led to early success by the incredible shooting of Steph Curry, the weight of the Lakers has been put on Lebron James and Anthony Davis and the suns have been scraping together wins through the leadership of Chris Paul while his co-star Devin Booker continues to struggle. It is clear that in today’s NBA, most title contenders are led by one or two elite scorers who are surrounded by traditional “pieces” that fill in key roles a team needs to win like perimeter defense and three-point shooting. This inference is consistent with BetMGM’s NBA title odds. The Brooklyn Nets are betting favorites to win the NBA championship with +260 odds (this means that a $100.00 bet on the Nets would pay out $260.00) while the Los Angeles Lakers have the second-best odds at +550. As previously acknowledged, the lion share of the Nets’ scoring comes from all-stars Kevin Durant and James Harden while the same is true for the Lakers with Lebron James and Anthony Davis (while all-star Russel Westbrook still tries to find his bearings with his new team). Besides each of these teams’ two scoring leaders, there is a significant drop off skill- wise. The Nets and Lakers each have other impressive players and young assets that are sure to be competent NBA starters, but an average NBA fan would be able to tell you the impact these team’s all-stars have on their team. This top-heavy roster style is consistent across all title contenders-except one team: the Miami Heat.

The Miami Heat are currently 1.5 games behind the Washington Wizards for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference of the NBA. They have not two, not three, not four, but five double-digit scorers-which is tied with the Philadelphia 76ers for most in the league-and three players averaging 20 points or more, which also leads the NBA, according to ESPN. Despite the shared scoring success within the Heat and strong record, the Heat only have the sixth-best betting odds (+1200) to win the NBA Championship, according to BetMGM. To analyze how the Heat have been one of the most dynamic (and subsequently different) teams in the NBA, it is effective to compare them to the betting favorites to win an NBA title this year-the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers.

Figure 1

As figure 1 shows, only two players have scored more than 18 points per game for the Nets: Kevin Durant and James Harden. There is a significant dropoff in scoring after these two all- stars.

Figure 2

Figure 2 illustrates that only two players (Lebron James and Anthony Davis) average more than 15 points per game for the Lakers. The next highest leading scorers (with the exception of Russel Westbrook who is quickly getting his averages up) score around 10 fewer points per game.

Figure 3

This bar plot (Figure 3) is glaring compared to Figures 1 and 2. Duncan Robinson (10.8), Kyle Lowry (12.8), Bam Adebayo (19.7), Tyler Herro (21.5), and Jimmy Butler (23.6) have all been double-digit scorers this year which has led the Heat to unprecedented success-similarly to what we saw in the NBA bubble and their 2020 championship run. In any given game, the Heat have proven all five of their starters can achieve elite scoring, as they have all had games with 25+ points-the Heat are the only team in the league to accomplish this. The Heat is achieving this exceptional feat despite their low eFG%. One of the most telling NBA statistics is a player/team’s eFG%, which is shooting statistics that take into account the increased difficulty of shooting a three-pointer as opposed to a traditional two-point field goal. When thinking about the Miami heat, flashes of Duncan Robinson’s and Tyler Herro’s three-point shooting come to mind, however, the Heat have been scoring without shooting high percentages from beyond the arch.

Figure 4

As Figure 4 shows, the Nets have eight players with an eFG% between 40% and 60%, 4 players between 60% and 70%, and one player, LaMarcus Aldridge, in the 70-80% range. The Nets are one of the best eFG% teams in the league, showing poised and mature shot selection.

Figure 5

The Lakers have been off to a poor start in terms of eFG%. Deandre Jordan is the team’s outlier, as he is the only player with an eFG% higher than 70%. The average Laker has an eFG% in the high 40s. This is indicative of poor shot selection from beyond the arch, in particular.

Figure 6

The Heat’s eFG% histogram (Figure 6) is similar to the Lakers’. Omer Yurtseven (who only plays 3.4 minutes per game) leads the Heat in eFG%, and there is a significant drop-off after that.

The Heat have managed to be one of the top scoring offenses despite their below average eFG%. If Erik Spoelstra can improve his team’s eFG% the Heat are destined for a deep playoff run.

Erik Spoelstra

Written by Max Brandt