Heather in SportsBetting

Overview

In this program, Heather is calculating the implied probability of a team winning from the moneyline odds and comparing that to the inferred probability of them winning according to the spread. The spread probabilities are calculated for each matchup by combining the two teams’ margin of victory/loss over/under the spread for the current and past season, wherein an empirical probability distribution is obtained. From this distribution, the area to the left of this weeks -spread is the probability of the underdog winning, and the area to the right is the probabiltiy of the favorite team winning. Hence, there are now two probabilities of a team winning, the moneyline and spread probabilities, one of which is more accurate in estimating the true unknown probability.

• If you believe the spread probability is accurate:
  Bet the moneyline on the team with a negative difference between their moneyline and spread probabilities for the contest. Why?? Because the moneyline odds are in that team’s favor.

OR

• If you believe the moneyline probabilies are accurate:
  Bet the spread on the team with a positive difference between their moneyline and spread probabilities for the contest. Why?? Because the spread is set in that team’s favor.

Note the following …

• Heather is showing you which matchups have large deviations in their spread and moneyline probabilities (that is her value), it is up to you to decide whether the spread or moneyline probability is the accurate one for that matchup, and hence which way you should bet. The bets will be contrasting depending on which probability you believe is accurate (e.g. Team A moneyline if spread probability is accurate or Team B spread if moneyline probability is accurate, but not both)

• I don’t know in general if the spread probability or moneyline probability is more accurate, but my hunch is that the spread probability is by the wisdom of the masses (it is a more popular bet). With that in mind, my “thought” is to bet the moneyline on those underdog teams whose difference between the moneyline and spread probabilities is negative, the more negative the better.

Output (FanDuel Odds)

Team_F	ML_F	S_F	Diff_F	Team_U	ML_U	S_U	Diff_U	K_C	MoneyF	MoneyU	Spread
Baltimore	0.67	0.53	0.14	Pittsburgh	0.37	0.47	-0.10	0.08	-200	168	4.0
Cincinnati	0.61	0.50	0.11	LAChargers	0.43	0.50	-0.07	0.06	-158	134	3.0
Minnesota	0.76	0.65	0.11	Detroit	0.28	0.35	-0.07	0.05	-320	260	7.0
Arizona	0.79	0.69	0.10	Chicago	0.25	0.31	-0.06	0.04	-375	300	7.5
SanFrancisco	0.61	0.51	0.10	Seattle	0.43	0.49	-0.06	0.05	-154	130	3.0
LARams	0.88	0.80	0.08	Jacksonville	0.16	0.20	-0.04	0.02	-750	530	13.0
Miami	0.74	0.67	0.07	NYGiants	0.30	0.33	-0.03	0.02	-290	235	6.5
KansasCity	0.80	0.73	0.07	Denver	0.24	0.27	-0.03	0.02	-390	310	8.5
Indianapolis	0.82	0.80	0.02	Houston	0.22	0.20	0.02	NA	-450	350	10.0
LasVegas	0.55	0.54	0.01	Washington	0.49	0.46	0.03	NA	-124	106	1.5
Philadelphia	0.69	0.69	0.00	NYJets	0.35	0.31	0.04	NA	-225	188	5.0
TampaBay	0.84	0.84	0.00	Atlanta	0.20	0.16	0.04	NA	-510	390	10.5
Buffalo	0.58	0.59	-0.01	NewEngland	0.46	0.41	0.05	NA	-136	116	2.5

• Team_F = Favorite Team
• ML_F = Probability of Favorite Team Winning by Moneyline
• S_F = Probability of Favorite Team Winning by Spread
• Diff_F = Difference of Moneyline and Spread Probabilities for Favorite Team
• Team_U = Underdog Team
• ML_U = Probability of Underdog Team Winning by Moneyline
• S_U = Probability of Underdog Team Winning by Spread
• Diff_U = Difference of Moneyline and Spread Probabilities for Underdog Team
• K_C = Half Kelly Criterion for Moneyline on Underdog using Spread Probability
• MoneyF = Moneyline for Favorite Team
• MoneyU = Moneyline for Underdog Team
• Spread = Well, it is the Spread
• Note that ML_F + ML_U > 1 since the sportsbook’s Rake = ML_F + ML_U - 1
• Note that S_F + S_U = 1 since these are from a probabilty distribution