1 Changes from previous version

Changed specifications for coverage and spending regressions
Removed filter causing code to drop observations with pre_spending missing from the spending regressions

2 Variable descriptions

Variable	Description
coverage	% pop living in hh reached by COVID-19 cash transfer
spending	Total marginal spending on COVID-19 cash transfers as % GDP
spending_pc	Marginal COVID-19 cash transfer spending as share of GDP per capita (ratio of spending over coverag)
pre_coverage	% pop receiving cash transfers prior to COVID-19
pre_spending	Spending on cash transfers as share of GDP prior to COVID
dig_reg	Dummy for whether existing databases used for horizontal expansion
fsi	Public service delivery component (P2) of Fragile States Index
non_ct_spending	Total COVID-19 spending (excluding spending on cash transfers) as share of GDP
dig_id	% pop with a digital ID
dig_xcheck	Use of digital ID for cross-checking databases
deaths	Total COVID-19 deaths per million up to 31-12-2020
region	Country region
eap	Dummy for region == East Asia and Pacific
atm	Number of ATMs per 100,000 adults
soc_reg_coverage	% population included in a social registry
pop_2018	Country population in 2018
rGDPg2020	Real GDP growth per capita in 2020
gdp_per_capita	GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $)
log_gdp	Log of GDP per capita

3 Table 2 - Coverage regressions

The dependent variable is the share of the population in a household that received a COVID-19 cash transfer.


	Dependent variable:

	coverage
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)

rGDPg2020	-0.023^***	-0.018^**	-0.017^**	-0.007	-0.011^*	-0.011^*	-0.006	-0.009	-0.008	-0.005
	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.007)

dig_id		0.001	0.002^**	0.0001
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)

eap			0.279^***	0.168^*		0.266^***	0.228^**		0.276^***	0.234^***
			(0.091)	(0.087)		(0.089)	(0.092)		(0.084)	(0.090)

log_gdp				0.175^***			0.103^**			0.080
				(0.036)			(0.046)			(0.053)

dig_reg					0.319^***	0.317^***	0.235^***
					(0.074)	(0.063)	(0.083)

dig_xcheck								0.317^***	0.338^***	0.256^***
								(0.071)	(0.059)	(0.093)

Constant	0.240^***	0.201^*	0.088	-1.212^***	0.156^***	0.107^***	-0.716^**	0.185^***	0.129^***	-0.507
	(0.033)	(0.110)	(0.076)	(0.270)	(0.047)	(0.041)	(0.342)	(0.041)	(0.038)	(0.401)


Observations	83	66	66	66	67	67	67	66	66	66
R²	0.151	0.133	0.256	0.421	0.351	0.469	0.521	0.368	0.494	0.521
Adjusted R²	0.140	0.106	0.220	0.383	0.330	0.444	0.490	0.348	0.470	0.489
Residual Std. Error	0.293 (df = 81)	0.284 (df = 63)	0.266 (df = 62)	0.236 (df = 61)	0.252 (df = 64)	0.230 (df = 63)	0.220 (df = 62)	0.243 (df = 63)	0.219 (df = 62)	0.215 (df = 61)
F Statistic	14.375^*** (df = 1; 81)	4.848^** (df = 2; 63)	7.105^*** (df = 3; 62)	11.066^*** (df = 4; 61)	17.282^*** (df = 2; 64)	18.575^*** (df = 3; 63)	16.874^*** (df = 4; 62)	18.353^*** (df = 2; 63)	20.194^*** (df = 3; 62)	16.559^*** (df = 4; 61)

Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

4 Table 3 - Average benefit regressions

The dependent variable is the average benefit size divided by GDP (calculated by dividing spending as a share of GDP divided by coverage).


	Dependent variable:

	avg_ben
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)

rGDPg2020	0.0004	0.0003	-0.0002	-0.0003	-0.0002
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.0005)	(0.001)	(0.0004)

non_ct_spending		0.042	0.043	0.046	0.109
		(0.106)	(0.097)	(0.100)	(0.114)

dig_xcheck			-0.014^***	-0.010^*	-0.011^*
			(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.006)

log_gdp				-0.003	-0.003
				(0.004)	(0.005)

regionECA					0.011
					(0.007)

regionLAC					-0.0002
					(0.006)

regionMENA					0.019^**
					(0.008)

regionSAR					0.004
					(0.008)

regionSSA					0.002
					(0.007)

Constant	0.024^***	0.022^***	0.028^***	0.053^*	0.050
	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.031)	(0.040)


Observations	69	60	60	60	60
R²	0.014	0.006	0.128	0.140	0.227
Adjusted R²	-0.0002	-0.029	0.082	0.077	0.088
Residual Std. Error	0.020 (df = 67)	0.019 (df = 57)	0.018 (df = 56)	0.018 (df = 55)	0.018 (df = 50)
F Statistic	0.984 (df = 1; 67)	0.182 (df = 2; 57)	2.748^* (df = 3; 56)	2.230^* (df = 4; 55)	1.634 (df = 9; 50)

Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

5 Table 4 - Spending regressions

The dependent variable is spending as a share of GDP.


	Dependent variable:

	spending
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)

rGDPg2020	-0.0003^**	-0.0002	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.00003
	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)

dig_xcheck		0.004^*	0.003	0.003^*	-0.001
		(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.004)

non_ct_spending			0.107	0.081	0.084
			(0.077)	(0.068)	(0.069)

eap				0.005^*	0.003
				(0.003)	(0.003)

log_gdp					0.003^*
					(0.002)

Constant	0.005^***	0.004^***	0.002	0.002	-0.023^*
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.014)


Observations	79	78	69	69	68
R²	0.047	0.092	0.162	0.209	0.261
Adjusted R²	0.035	0.068	0.123	0.159	0.201
Residual Std. Error	0.008 (df = 77)	0.008 (df = 75)	0.008 (df = 65)	0.008 (df = 64)	0.007 (df = 62)
F Statistic	3.805^* (df = 1; 77)	3.809^** (df = 2; 75)	4.184^*** (df = 3; 65)	4.217^*** (df = 4; 64)	4.376^*** (df = 5; 62)

Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01