• Climate change
• Habitat degradation
• Explotation
• Pollution (Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Air pollution)
• Invasive species

• Four different future scenarios
• Climate change velocity
• Extreme conditions

• Based of four corners (Fajardo et al., 2020)

• We are working on higher resolution climate for Denmark

• Kms per year

• From BIEN, we looked for all the presences of species present in Denmark
  • Native: 987
  • Introduced: 208 (more introduced species have also been modeled)
• Model current and 4 future scenarios

• When current and future ranges are aligned

• Present richness vs concensus richness
• Better options with migrations, artscore, and other metrics
• Other taxa

• Naidoo and Iwamura (2007)
• Based on potential crop and livestock production
• Does not consider climate change (We can do better)

• Copenhagen shows how different they are

\[{\mathit{Minimize} \space \sum_{i = 1}^{I} x_i c_i \\}\]

• Every \(i\) is a cell, where \(c_i\) is the cost for each cell.
• \(x_i\) is a decision of 0 not to use in prioritization and 1 to use in a prioritization

• Only take into account species (10% coverage)

• Add Agriculture as cost (min cost)

• Start with protected areas, eliminate cities (HFP)

\[{\mathit{Maximize} \space \sum_{i = 1}^{I} -s \space c_i \space x_i + \sum_{j = 1}^{J} a_j w_j \\}\]

• where \(c_i\) is the cost of cell \(i\)
• \(x_i\) is the decision to use (1) or not use (0) cell i in the final solution
• \(a_j\) is the amount of feature \(j\) in cell \(i\) and \(w_j\) is the weight of each feature
• \(s\) is a scaling factor used to shrink the costs so that the problem will return a cheapest solution

Subject to

\[\sum_{i = 1}^{I} x_i c_i \leq B\]

• Where B is a budget (don’t need to set fixed boudaries)

• We should probably test different objective functions
  • Minimum cost
  • Maximum utility
  • Minimum largest shortfall

• Ecosystem services
• Microbiota diversity and anssambles

• Carbon stock
• Pesticide reduction
• Food needs (i.e. 55,000 Tons of livestock)

• Agriculture and land use Best guess for the future
  • Projected yieald with climate change
  • Ideas on how to manage land use and check (could use ideal vs projected scenarios)
  • More local projections
• Carbons stock, acumulated per cell per time-slice