Wavumbuzi BHAG

Overview

The primary objective of this mini-study is to disaggregate and project the one million BHAG target by each country and over time (year). To come up with reasonable estimates and projections per-year & per-country, it is critical to take into account the following considerations:

  • Highschool students population dynamics per country
  • Trends in time and population growth
  • It should be progressive & additive and should be weighted by population for each country from 2021 to 2030
  • Other operational constraints to be considered include:
    • Internet connectivity
    • Power availability
    • Computer labs
    • AGGP HR capacity
    • Any other foreseeable barriers
    • Take advantage of ecosystem growth and AGGP’s capacity growth and maturity over the years

Assumptions

  • Unit of analysis is not schools but rather learners
  • We don’t aggregate multiple iterations conducted per year.
  • Past achievements (prior to 2021) are not included in the BHAG aggregates

Secondary Education

Internet Access

Power Coveragae

To action this objective we need to first:

  1. Extrapolate the expected number of highschool students from 2021 to 2030, for each of the 10 countries.
  2. Weight it by a progressive factor that takes into account the growth rate as well as operational constraints.
  3. Using the progressive weight, project the one-million BHAG targets (longitudinally ) across time until 2030, while disaggregating by country

Methodology

Time series projections have been widely used to forecast population, events, and other micro and macro indicators, in order to prospectively provide programmatic Strategic Information (SI) or to proactively simulate intervention pathways that can be taken in order to change the trajectory of events.

Highschool Student Population Projection

To extrapolate/forecast the expected number of high school students per country from 2021 to 2030, we are going to utilize ARIMA forecasting modeling approach. ARIMA is an acronym that stands for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average. It is a class of models that captures a suite of different standard temporal structures in time series data. This acronym is descriptive, capturing the key aspects of the model itself. Briefly, they are:

  • AR: Autoregression. A model that uses the dependent relationship between an observation and some number of lagged observations.

where, \(Y{t-1}\) is the lag1 of the series, \(\beta1\) is the coefficient of lag1 that the model estimates and \(\weight\) is the intercept term, also estimated by the model.

  • I: Integrated. The use of differencing of raw observations (e.g. subtracting an observation from an observation at the previous time step) in order to make the time series stationary.
  • MA: Moving Average. A model that uses the dependency between an observation and a residual error from a moving average model applied to lagged observations. Each of these components are explicitly specified in the model as a parameter. A standard notation is used of ARIMA(p,d,q) where the parameters are substituted with integer values to quickly indicate the specific ARIMA model being used.

Why ARIMA?

ARIMA models are often considered because they deliver more accurate forecasts than other common techniques (Song et al, 2003b). For example, ARIMA models outperform multivariate models in forecasting performance (du Preez & Witt, 2003). Overall performance of ARIMA models is superior to that of the naïve models and smoothing techniques (Goh & Law, 2002).

Datasource

World Bank Open Data coordinates statistical and data work and maintains a number of macro, financial, and sector databases. Working closely with the Bank’s regions and Global Practices, the group is guided by professional standards in the collection, compilation, and dissemination of data to ensure that all data users can have confidence in the quality and integrity of the data produced.

Students Population Extrapolation

Clean Model: 2 Countries

Path to 1M by 2030 in 2 countries

Target Projection | Phased roll-out for 2 countries | Don’t Reset weights for each country

  • Kenya
  • Rwanda

Model Benchmark

  • Progressively weight the student population per year & per country
  • [0.34% (2021) to 3.4% (2030)]
  • For each year, the weights doesn’t reset.
  • Start with 0.34% of the population per country in 2021
  • End with 3.4% of the population per country in 2030

## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 0.8593 0.0034 12,746 12,746 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 0.1407 0.0034 2,088 14,834 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 0.8564 0.0069 26,294 41,128 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 0.1436 0.0069 4,409 45,537 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.8535 0.0103 40,668 86,205 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.1465 0.0103 6,978 93,183 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.8507 0.0138 55,896 149,079 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.1493 0.0138 9,808 158,887 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.8479 0.0172 72,004 230,891 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.1521 0.0172 12,914 243,805 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.8451 0.0207 89,019 332,824 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.1549 0.0207 16,310 349,134 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.8424 0.0241 106,967 456,101 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.1576 0.0241 20,012 476,113 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.8397 0.0276 125,878 601,991 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.1603 0.0276 24,034 626,025 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.8370 0.0310 145,778 771,803 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.1630 0.0310 28,394 800,197 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.8343 0.0345 166,697 966,894 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.1657 0.0345 33,106 1,000,000 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"

Kenya Alpha

  • Kenya Alpha is an average of KE1 alpha and KE2 alpha
  • Kenya Alpha = {( KE1-Actual/KE1-Target ) + ( KE2-Actual/KE2-Target ) } / 2
  • Kenya Alpha = ((1851/8,714 )+ (4884/17,779))/2
  • Kenya Alpha = 0.2435615

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  243,563"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 0.8275 0.0025 8,714 2,122 2,122 1,851
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 0.1725 0.0025 1,817 443 2,565 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 0.8655 0.0050 17,779 4,330 6,895 4,884
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 0.1345 0.0050 2,763 673 7,568 3,574
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 0.8593 0.0074 27,516 6,702 14,270 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 0.1407 0.0074 4,507 1,098 15,368 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 0.8564 0.0099 37,842 9,217 24,585 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 0.1436 0.0099 6,346 1,546 26,131 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.8535 0.0124 48,775 11,880 38,011 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.1465 0.0124 8,369 2,038 40,049 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.8507 0.0149 60,334 14,695 54,744 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.1493 0.0149 10,587 2,579 57,323 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.8479 0.0174 72,540 17,668 74,991 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.1521 0.0174 13,010 3,169 78,160 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.8451 0.0199 85,410 20,803 98,963 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.1549 0.0199 15,649 3,811 102,774 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.8424 0.0223 98,965 24,104 126,878 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.1576 0.0223 18,515 4,510 131,388 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.8397 0.0248 113,226 27,577 158,965 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.1603 0.0248 21,619 5,266 164,231 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.8370 0.0273 128,212 31,228 195,459 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.1630 0.0273 24,972 6,082 201,541 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.8343 0.0298 143,945 35,059 236,600 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.1657 0.0298 28,588 6,963 243,563 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  243,563"

Rwanda Alpha

  • Rwanda Alpha = RW1-Actual / RW1-Target
  • Rwanda Alpha = 3574 / 2,763
  • Rwanda Alpha = 1.293522

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  1,293,523"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 0.8275 0.0025 8,714 11,272 11,272 1,851
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 0.1725 0.0025 1,817 2,350 13,622 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 0.8655 0.0050 17,779 22,998 36,620 4,884
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 0.1345 0.0050 2,763 3,574 40,194 3,574
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 0.8593 0.0074 27,516 35,593 75,787 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 0.1407 0.0074 4,507 5,830 81,617 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 0.8564 0.0099 37,842 48,949 130,566 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 0.1436 0.0099 6,346 8,209 138,775 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.8535 0.0124 48,775 63,092 201,867 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.1465 0.0124 8,369 10,825 212,692 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.8507 0.0149 60,334 78,043 290,735 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.1493 0.0149 10,587 13,695 304,430 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.8479 0.0174 72,540 93,832 398,262 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.1521 0.0174 13,010 16,829 415,091 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.8451 0.0199 85,410 110,480 525,571 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.1549 0.0199 15,649 20,242 545,813 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.8424 0.0223 98,965 128,013 673,826 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.1576 0.0223 18,515 23,950 697,776 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.8397 0.0248 113,226 146,460 844,236 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.1603 0.0248 21,619 27,965 872,201 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.8370 0.0273 128,212 165,845 1,038,046 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.1630 0.0273 24,972 32,302 1,070,348 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.8343 0.0298 143,945 186,196 1,256,544 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.1657 0.0298 28,588 36,979 1,293,523 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  1,293,523"

1M Engagement Target

To arrive at 1M engagement BHAG, we need to oversample the number of targeted registered learners by 30%

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,573"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target engagement_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 0.8593 0.0034 12,746 18,209 18,209 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 0.1407 0.0034 2,088 2,983 21,192 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 0.8564 0.0069 26,294 37,563 58,755 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 0.1436 0.0069 4,409 6,299 65,054 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.8535 0.0103 40,668 58,097 123,151 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.1465 0.0103 6,978 9,969 133,120 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.8507 0.0138 55,896 79,851 212,971 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.1493 0.0138 9,808 14,011 226,982 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.8479 0.0172 72,004 102,863 329,845 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.1521 0.0172 12,914 18,449 348,294 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.8451 0.0207 89,019 127,170 475,464 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.1549 0.0207 16,310 23,300 498,764 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.8424 0.0241 106,967 152,810 651,574 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.1576 0.0241 20,012 28,589 680,163 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.8397 0.0276 125,878 179,826 859,989 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.1603 0.0276 24,034 34,334 894,323 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.8370 0.0310 145,778 208,254 1,102,577 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.1630 0.0310 28,394 40,563 1,143,140 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.8343 0.0345 166,697 238,139 1,381,279 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.1657 0.0345 33,106 47,294 1,428,573 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,573"

Target Projection | Phased roll-out for 4 countries | Reset weights for each country

If the other 2 countries were rolled out in phases as from 2022 with baseline weights for each country i.e:

  • Ethiopia: 2022
  • Ghana: 2023

Model Benchmark

  • Progressively weight the student population per year & per country
  • Reset weights for each country and increase weight by + 0.0014
  • [0.34% (2021) to 3.45% (2030)]
  • Start with 0.34% of the population per country in 2021
  • End with 3.45% of the population per country in 2030

## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 0.8593 0.0034 12,746 12,746 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 0.1407 0.0034 2,088 14,834 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 0.8564 0.0069 26,294 41,128 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 0.1436 0.0069 4,409 45,537 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.8535 0.0103 40,668 86,205 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.1465 0.0103 6,978 93,183 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.8507 0.0138 55,896 149,079 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.1493 0.0138 9,808 158,887 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.8479 0.0172 72,004 230,891 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.1521 0.0172 12,914 243,805 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.8451 0.0207 89,019 332,824 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.1549 0.0207 16,310 349,134 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.8424 0.0241 106,967 456,101 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.1576 0.0241 20,012 476,113 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.8397 0.0276 125,878 601,991 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.1603 0.0276 24,034 626,025 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.8370 0.0310 145,778 771,803 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.1630 0.0310 28,394 800,197 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.8343 0.0345 166,697 966,894 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.1657 0.0345 33,106 1,000,000 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"

Kenya Alpha

  • Kenya Alpha is an average of KE1 alpha and KE2 alpha
  • Kenya Alpha = {(KE1-Actual/KE1-Target ) + (KE1-Actual/KE2-Target ) } / 2
  • Kenya Alpha = ((1851/8,714 )+ (4,884/17,779))/2
  • Kenya Alpha = 0.2435615

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  243,563"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 0.8275 0.0025 8,714 2,122 2,122 1,851
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 0.1725 0.0025 1,817 443 2,565 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 0.8655 0.0050 17,779 4,330 6,895 4,884
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 0.1345 0.0050 2,763 673 7,568 3,574
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 0.8593 0.0074 27,516 6,702 14,270 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 0.1407 0.0074 4,507 1,098 15,368 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 0.8564 0.0099 37,842 9,217 24,585 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 0.1436 0.0099 6,346 1,546 26,131 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.8535 0.0124 48,775 11,880 38,011 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.1465 0.0124 8,369 2,038 40,049 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.8507 0.0149 60,334 14,695 54,744 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.1493 0.0149 10,587 2,579 57,323 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.8479 0.0174 72,540 17,668 74,991 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.1521 0.0174 13,010 3,169 78,160 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.8451 0.0199 85,410 20,803 98,963 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.1549 0.0199 15,649 3,811 102,774 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.8424 0.0223 98,965 24,104 126,878 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.1576 0.0223 18,515 4,510 131,388 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.8397 0.0248 113,226 27,577 158,965 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.1603 0.0248 21,619 5,266 164,231 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.8370 0.0273 128,212 31,228 195,459 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.1630 0.0273 24,972 6,082 201,541 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.8343 0.0298 143,945 35,059 236,600 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.1657 0.0298 28,588 6,963 243,563 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  243,563"

Rwanda Alpha

  • Rwanda Alpha = RW1-Actual / RW1-Target
  • Rwanda Alpha = 3574 / 2,763
  • Rwanda Alpha = 0.2077452

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  1,293,523"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 0.8275 0.0025 8,714 11,272 11,272 1,851
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 0.1725 0.0025 1,817 2,350 13,622 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 0.8655 0.0050 17,779 22,998 36,620 4,884
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 0.1345 0.0050 2,763 3,574 40,194 3,574
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 0.8593 0.0074 27,516 35,593 75,787 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 0.1407 0.0074 4,507 5,830 81,617 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 0.8564 0.0099 37,842 48,949 130,566 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 0.1436 0.0099 6,346 8,209 138,775 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.8535 0.0124 48,775 63,092 201,867 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.1465 0.0124 8,369 10,825 212,692 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.8507 0.0149 60,334 78,043 290,735 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.1493 0.0149 10,587 13,695 304,430 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.8479 0.0174 72,540 93,832 398,262 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.1521 0.0174 13,010 16,829 415,091 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.8451 0.0199 85,410 110,480 525,571 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.1549 0.0199 15,649 20,242 545,813 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.8424 0.0223 98,965 128,013 673,826 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.1576 0.0223 18,515 23,950 697,776 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.8397 0.0248 113,226 146,460 844,236 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.1603 0.0248 21,619 27,965 872,201 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.8370 0.0273 128,212 165,845 1,038,046 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.1630 0.0273 24,972 32,302 1,070,348 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.8343 0.0298 143,945 186,196 1,256,544 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.1657 0.0298 28,588 36,979 1,293,523 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  1,293,523"

1M Engagement Target

To arrive at 1M engagement BHAG, we need to oversample the number of targeted registered learners by 30%

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,573"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target engagement_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 0.8593 0.0034 12,746 18,209 18,209 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 0.1407 0.0034 2,088 2,983 21,192 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 0.8564 0.0069 26,294 37,563 58,755 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 0.1436 0.0069 4,409 6,299 65,054 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.8535 0.0103 40,668 58,097 123,151 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.1465 0.0103 6,978 9,969 133,120 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.8507 0.0138 55,896 79,851 212,971 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.1493 0.0138 9,808 14,011 226,982 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.8479 0.0172 72,004 102,863 329,845 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.1521 0.0172 12,914 18,449 348,294 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.8451 0.0207 89,019 127,170 475,464 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.1549 0.0207 16,310 23,300 498,764 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.8424 0.0241 106,967 152,810 651,574 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.1576 0.0241 20,012 28,589 680,163 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.8397 0.0276 125,878 179,826 859,989 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.1603 0.0276 24,034 34,334 894,323 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.8370 0.0310 145,778 208,254 1,102,577 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.1630 0.0310 28,394 40,563 1,143,140 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.8343 0.0345 166,697 238,139 1,381,279 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.1657 0.0345 33,106 47,294 1,428,573 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,573"

Clean Model: 4 Countries

Path to 1M by 2030 in 4 countries

Target Projection | Phased roll-out for 4 countries | Don’t Reset weights for each country

If the other 2 were rolled out in phases as from 2022 i.e:

  • Ethiopia: 2022
  • Ghana: 2023

Model Benchmark

  • Progressively weight the student population per year & per country
  • [0.12% (2021) to 1.2% (2030)]
  • For each year, the weights doesn’t reset.
  • Start with 0.12% of the population per country in 2021
  • End with 1.2% of the population per country in 2030

## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0012 NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0012 NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0012 4,582 4,582 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0012 750 5,332 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0025 14,910 20,242 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0025 NA 20,242 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0025 9,452 29,694 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0025 1,585 31,279 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 0.4517 0.0037 22,657 53,936 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 0.2068 0.0037 10,371 64,307 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.2915 0.0037 14,620 78,927 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.0500 0.0037 2,509 81,436 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 0.4475 0.0050 30,647 112,083 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 0.2076 0.0050 14,221 126,304 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.2934 0.0050 20,094 146,398 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.0515 0.0050 3,526 149,924 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 0.4436 0.0062 38,918 188,842 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 0.2084 0.0062 18,278 207,120 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.2951 0.0062 25,885 233,005 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.0529 0.0062 4,643 237,648 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.4402 0.0074 47,504 285,152 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.2089 0.0074 22,546 307,698 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.2965 0.0074 32,002 339,700 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0543 0.0074 5,863 345,563 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.4371 0.0087 56,434 401,997 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.2094 0.0087 27,033 429,030 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.2978 0.0087 38,454 467,484 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0557 0.0087 7,194 474,678 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.4343 0.0099 65,736 540,414 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.2097 0.0099 31,744 572,158 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.2989 0.0099 45,252 617,410 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0571 0.0099 8,640 626,050 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.4317 0.0112 75,428 701,478 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.2100 0.0112 36,686 738,164 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.2999 0.0112 52,406 790,570 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0584 0.0112 10,207 800,777 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.4293 0.0124 85,530 886,307 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.2101 0.0124 41,865 928,172 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.3008 0.0124 59,926 988,098 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0597 0.0124 11,902 1,000,000 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"

Kenya Alpha

  • Kenya Alpha is an average of KE1 alpha and KE2 alpha
  • Kenya Alpha = {( KE1-Actual/KE1-Target ) + ( KE2-Actual/KE2-Target ) } / 2
  • Kenya Alpha = ((1851/3,239 )+ (4884/6,607))/2
  • Kenya Alpha = 0.6553443

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  655,346"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ghana NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 NA 0.0009 3,239 2,123 2,123 1,851
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 NA 0.0009 675 442 2,565 NA
Y 2020 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 2,565 NA
Y 2020 Ghana NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 2,565 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 NA 0.0018 6,607 4,330 6,895 4,884
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 NA 0.0018 1,027 673 7,568 3,574
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0028 NA NA 7,568 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0028 NA NA 7,568 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0028 10,226 6,702 14,270 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0028 1,675 1,098 15,368 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0037 22,183 14,538 29,906 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0037 NA NA 29,906 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0037 14,063 9,216 39,122 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0037 2,358 1,545 40,667 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 0.4517 0.0046 28,090 18,409 59,076 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 0.2068 0.0046 12,858 8,426 67,502 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.2915 0.0046 18,126 11,879 79,381 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.0500 0.0046 3,110 2,038 81,419 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 0.4475 0.0055 34,197 22,411 103,830 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 0.2076 0.0055 15,868 10,399 114,229 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.2934 0.0055 22,422 14,694 128,923 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.0515 0.0055 3,935 2,579 131,502 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 0.4436 0.0065 40,531 26,562 158,064 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 0.2084 0.0065 19,035 12,474 170,538 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.2951 0.0065 26,958 17,667 188,205 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.0529 0.0065 4,835 3,169 191,374 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.4402 0.0074 47,117 30,878 222,252 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.2089 0.0074 22,362 14,655 236,907 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.2965 0.0074 31,741 20,801 257,708 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0543 0.0074 5,816 3,811 261,519 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.4371 0.0083 53,975 35,372 296,891 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.2094 0.0083 25,855 16,944 313,835 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.2978 0.0083 36,779 24,103 337,938 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0557 0.0083 6,881 4,509 342,447 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.4343 0.0092 61,125 40,058 382,505 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.2097 0.0092 29,518 19,344 401,849 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.2989 0.0092 42,078 27,576 429,425 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0571 0.0092 8,034 5,265 434,690 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.4317 0.0101 68,579 44,943 479,633 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.2100 0.0101 33,355 21,859 501,492 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.2999 0.0101 47,648 31,226 532,718 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0584 0.0101 9,280 6,082 538,800 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.4293 0.0111 76,349 50,035 588,835 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.2101 0.0111 37,372 24,492 613,327 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.3008 0.0111 53,494 35,057 648,384 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0597 0.0111 10,624 6,962 655,346 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  655,346"

Rwanda Alpha

  • Rwanda Alpha = RW1-Actual / RW1-Target
  • Rwanda Alpha = 3574 / 1,027
  • Rwanda Alpha = 3.480039

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  3,480,039"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ghana NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 NA 0.0009 3,239 11,272 11,272 1,851
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 NA 0.0009 675 2,349 13,621 NA
Y 2020 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 13,621 NA
Y 2020 Ghana NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 13,621 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 NA 0.0018 6,607 22,993 36,614 4,884
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 NA 0.0018 1,027 3,574 40,188 3,574
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0028 NA NA 40,188 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0028 NA NA 40,188 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0028 10,226 35,587 75,775 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0028 1,675 5,829 81,604 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0037 22,183 77,198 158,802 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0037 NA NA 158,802 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0037 14,063 48,940 207,742 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0037 2,358 8,206 215,948 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 0.4517 0.0046 28,090 97,754 313,702 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 0.2068 0.0046 12,858 44,746 358,448 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.2915 0.0046 18,126 63,079 421,527 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.0500 0.0046 3,110 10,823 432,350 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 0.4475 0.0055 34,197 119,007 551,357 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 0.2076 0.0055 15,868 55,221 606,578 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.2934 0.0055 22,422 78,029 684,607 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.0515 0.0055 3,935 13,694 698,301 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 0.4436 0.0065 40,531 141,049 839,350 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 0.2084 0.0065 19,035 66,243 905,593 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.2951 0.0065 26,958 93,815 999,408 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.0529 0.0065 4,835 16,826 1,016,234 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.4402 0.0074 47,117 163,969 1,180,203 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.2089 0.0074 22,362 77,821 1,258,024 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.2965 0.0074 31,741 110,460 1,368,484 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0543 0.0074 5,816 20,240 1,388,724 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.4371 0.0083 53,975 187,835 1,576,559 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.2094 0.0083 25,855 89,976 1,666,535 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.2978 0.0083 36,779 127,992 1,794,527 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0557 0.0083 6,881 23,946 1,818,473 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.4343 0.0092 61,125 212,717 2,031,190 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.2097 0.0092 29,518 102,724 2,133,914 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.2989 0.0092 42,078 146,433 2,280,347 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0571 0.0092 8,034 27,959 2,308,306 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.4317 0.0101 68,579 238,658 2,546,964 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.2100 0.0101 33,355 116,077 2,663,041 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.2999 0.0101 47,648 165,817 2,828,858 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0584 0.0101 9,280 32,295 2,861,153 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.4293 0.0111 76,349 265,697 3,126,850 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.2101 0.0111 37,372 130,056 3,256,906 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.3008 0.0111 53,494 186,161 3,443,067 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0597 0.0111 10,624 36,972 3,480,039 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  3,480,039"

1M Engagement Target

To arrive at 1M engagement BHAG, we need to oversample the number of targeted registered learners by 30%

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,574"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target engagement_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0012 4,582 6,546 6,546 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0012 750 1,071 7,617 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0025 14,910 21,300 28,917 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0025 NA NA 28,917 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0025 9,452 13,503 42,420 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0025 1,585 2,264 44,684 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 0.4517 0.0037 22,657 32,367 77,051 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 0.2068 0.0037 10,371 14,816 91,867 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.2915 0.0037 14,620 20,886 112,753 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.0500 0.0037 2,509 3,584 116,337 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 0.4475 0.0050 30,647 43,781 160,118 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 0.2076 0.0050 14,221 20,316 180,434 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.2934 0.0050 20,094 28,706 209,140 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.0515 0.0050 3,526 5,037 214,177 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 0.4436 0.0062 38,918 55,597 269,774 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 0.2084 0.0062 18,278 26,111 295,885 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.2951 0.0062 25,885 36,979 332,864 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.0529 0.0062 4,643 6,633 339,497 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.4402 0.0074 47,504 67,863 407,360 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.2089 0.0074 22,546 32,209 439,569 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.2965 0.0074 32,002 45,717 485,286 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0543 0.0074 5,863 8,376 493,662 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.4371 0.0087 56,434 80,620 574,282 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.2094 0.0087 27,033 38,619 612,901 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.2978 0.0087 38,454 54,934 667,835 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0557 0.0087 7,194 10,277 678,112 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.4343 0.0099 65,736 93,909 772,021 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.2097 0.0099 31,744 45,349 817,370 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.2989 0.0099 45,252 64,646 882,016 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0571 0.0099 8,640 12,343 894,359 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.4317 0.0112 75,428 107,754 1,002,113 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.2100 0.0112 36,686 52,409 1,054,522 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.2999 0.0112 52,406 74,866 1,129,388 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0584 0.0112 10,207 14,581 1,143,969 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.4293 0.0124 85,530 122,186 1,266,155 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.2101 0.0124 41,865 59,807 1,325,962 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.3008 0.0124 59,926 85,609 1,411,571 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0597 0.0124 11,902 17,003 1,428,574 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,574"

Target Projection | Phased roll-out for 4 countries | Reset weights for each country

If the other 2 countries were rolled out in phases as from 2022 with baseline weights for each country i.e:

  • Ethiopia: 2022
  • Ghana: 2023

Model Benchmark

  • Progressively weight the student population per year & per country
  • Reset weights for each country and increase weight by + 0.0014
  • [0.14% (2021) to 1.4% (2030)]
  • Start with 0.14% of the population per country in 2021
  • End with 1.4% of the population per country in 2030

## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0000 NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0014 5,283 5,283 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0014 865 6,148 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0014 8,595 14,743 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA 14,743 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0029 10,898 25,641 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0029 1,827 27,468 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 0.4517 0.0029 17,414 44,882 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 0.2068 0.0014 3,986 48,868 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.2915 0.0043 16,855 65,723 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.0500 0.0043 2,892 68,615 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 0.4475 0.0043 26,499 95,114 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 0.2076 0.0029 8,198 103,312 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.2934 0.0057 23,167 126,479 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.0515 0.0057 4,065 130,544 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 0.4436 0.0057 35,894 166,438 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 0.2084 0.0043 12,643 179,081 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.2951 0.0071 29,843 208,924 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.0529 0.0071 5,352 214,276 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.4402 0.0071 45,639 259,915 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.2089 0.0057 17,329 277,244 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.2965 0.0086 36,895 314,139 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0543 0.0086 6,760 320,899 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.4371 0.0086 55,768 376,667 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.2094 0.0071 22,262 398,929 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.2978 0.0100 44,334 443,263 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0557 0.0100 8,294 451,557 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.4343 0.0100 66,313 517,870 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.2097 0.0086 27,448 545,318 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.2989 0.0114 52,171 597,489 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0571 0.0114 9,961 607,450 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.4317 0.0114 77,298 684,748 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.2100 0.0100 32,896 717,644 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.2999 0.0129 60,419 778,063 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0584 0.0129 11,768 789,831 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.4293 0.0129 88,746 878,577 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.2101 0.0114 38,613 917,190 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.3008 0.0143 69,089 986,279 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0597 0.0143 13,721 1,000,000 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"

Kenya Alpha

  • Kenya Alpha is an average of KE1 alpha and KE2 alpha
  • Kenya Alpha = {(KE1-Actual/KE1-Target ) + (KE1-Actual/KE2-Target ) } / 2
  • Kenya Alpha = ((1851/3593 )+ (4,884/7,331))/2
  • Kenya Alpha = 0.5906902

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  590,689"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 NA 0.0010 3,593 2,122 2,122 1,851
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 NA 0.0010 749 442 2,564 NA
Y 2020 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0010 NA NA 2,564 NA
Y 2020 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 2,564 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 NA 0.0020 7,331 4,330 6,894 4,884
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 NA 0.0020 1,139 673 7,567 3,574
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0020 NA NA 7,567 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0010 NA NA 7,567 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0031 11,345 6,701 14,268 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0031 1,858 1,098 15,366 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0031 18,458 10,903 26,269 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0020 NA NA 26,269 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0041 15,602 9,216 35,485 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0041 2,616 1,545 37,030 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 0.4517 0.0041 24,932 14,727 51,757 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 0.2068 0.0031 8,559 5,056 56,813 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.2915 0.0051 20,110 11,879 68,692 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.0500 0.0051 3,451 2,038 70,730 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 0.4475 0.0051 31,616 18,675 89,405 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 0.2076 0.0041 11,737 6,933 96,338 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.2934 0.0061 24,876 14,694 111,032 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.0515 0.0061 4,365 2,578 113,610 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 0.4436 0.0061 38,543 22,767 136,377 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 0.2084 0.0051 15,085 8,911 145,288 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.2951 0.0072 29,909 17,667 162,955 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.0529 0.0072 5,364 3,168 166,123 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.4402 0.0072 45,739 27,018 193,141 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.2089 0.0061 18,608 10,992 204,133 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.2965 0.0082 35,215 20,801 224,934 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0543 0.0082 6,452 3,811 228,745 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.4371 0.0082 53,229 31,442 260,187 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.2094 0.0072 22,311 13,179 273,366 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.2978 0.0092 40,804 24,103 297,469 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0557 0.0092 7,634 4,509 301,978 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.4343 0.0092 61,034 36,052 338,030 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.2097 0.0082 26,199 15,475 353,505 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.2989 0.0102 46,684 27,576 381,081 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0571 0.0102 8,914 5,265 386,346 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.4317 0.0102 69,168 40,857 427,203 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.2100 0.0092 30,277 17,884 445,087 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.2999 0.0113 52,863 31,226 476,313 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0584 0.0113 10,296 6,082 482,395 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.4293 0.0113 77,647 45,865 528,260 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.2101 0.0102 34,552 20,410 548,670 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.3008 0.0123 59,349 35,057 583,727 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0597 0.0123 11,787 6,962 590,689 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  590,689"

Rwanda Alpha

  • Rwanda Alpha = RW1-Actual / RW1-Target
  • Rwanda Alpha = 3574 / 1139
  • Rwanda Alpha = 3.13784

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  3,137,842"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 NA 0.0010 3,593 11,274 11,274 1,851
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 NA 0.0010 749 2,350 13,624 NA
Y 2020 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0010 NA NA 13,624 NA
Y 2020 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 13,624 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 NA 0.0020 7,331 23,004 36,628 4,884
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 NA 0.0020 1,139 3,574 40,202 3,574
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0020 NA NA 40,202 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0010 NA NA 40,202 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0031 11,345 35,599 75,801 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0031 1,858 5,830 81,631 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0031 18,458 57,918 139,549 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0020 NA NA 139,549 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0041 15,602 48,957 188,506 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0041 2,616 8,209 196,715 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 0.4517 0.0041 24,932 78,233 274,948 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 0.2068 0.0031 8,559 26,857 301,805 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.2915 0.0051 20,110 63,102 364,907 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.0500 0.0051 3,451 10,829 375,736 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 0.4475 0.0051 31,616 99,206 474,942 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 0.2076 0.0041 11,737 36,829 511,771 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.2934 0.0061 24,876 78,057 589,828 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.0515 0.0061 4,365 13,697 603,525 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 0.4436 0.0061 38,543 120,942 724,467 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 0.2084 0.0051 15,085 47,334 771,801 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.2951 0.0072 29,909 93,850 865,651 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.0529 0.0072 5,364 16,831 882,482 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.4402 0.0072 45,739 143,522 1,026,004 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.2089 0.0061 18,608 58,389 1,084,393 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.2965 0.0082 35,215 110,499 1,194,892 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0543 0.0082 6,452 20,245 1,215,137 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.4371 0.0082 53,229 167,024 1,382,161 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.2094 0.0072 22,311 70,008 1,452,169 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.2978 0.0092 40,804 128,036 1,580,205 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0557 0.0092 7,634 23,954 1,604,159 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.4343 0.0092 61,034 191,515 1,795,674 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.2097 0.0082 26,199 82,208 1,877,882 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.2989 0.0102 46,684 146,487 2,024,369 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0571 0.0102 8,914 27,971 2,052,340 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.4317 0.0102 69,168 217,038 2,269,378 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.2100 0.0092 30,277 95,004 2,364,382 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.2999 0.0113 52,863 165,876 2,530,258 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0584 0.0113 10,296 32,307 2,562,565 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.4293 0.0113 77,647 243,644 2,806,209 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.2101 0.0102 34,552 108,419 2,914,628 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.3008 0.0123 59,349 186,228 3,100,856 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0597 0.0123 11,787 36,986 3,137,842 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  3,137,842"

1M Engagement Target

To arrive at 1M engagement BHAG, we need to oversample the number of targeted registered learners by 30%

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,572"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target engagement_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0014 5,283 7,547 7,547 3,510
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0014 865 1,236 8,783 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0014 8,595 12,279 21,062 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 21,062 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0029 10,898 15,569 36,631 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0029 1,827 2,610 39,241 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 0.4517 0.0029 17,414 24,877 64,118 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 0.2068 0.0014 3,986 5,694 69,812 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 0.2915 0.0043 16,855 24,079 93,891 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 0.0500 0.0043 2,892 4,131 98,022 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 0.4475 0.0043 26,499 37,856 135,878 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 0.2076 0.0029 8,198 11,711 147,589 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 0.2934 0.0057 23,167 33,096 180,685 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 0.0515 0.0057 4,065 5,807 186,492 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 0.4436 0.0057 35,894 51,277 237,769 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 0.2084 0.0043 12,643 18,061 255,830 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 0.2951 0.0071 29,843 42,633 298,463 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 0.0529 0.0071 5,352 7,646 306,109 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.4402 0.0071 45,639 65,199 371,308 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.2089 0.0057 17,329 24,756 396,064 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.2965 0.0086 36,895 52,707 448,771 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0543 0.0086 6,760 9,657 458,428 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.4371 0.0086 55,768 79,669 538,097 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.2094 0.0071 22,262 31,803 569,900 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.2978 0.0100 44,334 63,334 633,234 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0557 0.0100 8,294 11,849 645,083 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.4343 0.0100 66,313 94,733 739,816 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.2097 0.0086 27,448 39,211 779,027 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.2989 0.0114 52,171 74,530 853,557 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0571 0.0114 9,961 14,230 867,787 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.4317 0.0114 77,298 110,426 978,213 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.2100 0.0100 32,896 46,994 1,025,207 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.2999 0.0129 60,419 86,313 1,111,520 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0584 0.0129 11,768 16,811 1,128,331 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.4293 0.0129 88,746 126,780 1,255,111 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.2101 0.0114 38,613 55,161 1,310,272 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.3008 0.0143 69,089 98,699 1,408,971 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0597 0.0143 13,721 19,601 1,428,572 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,572"

Clean Model: 7 Countries

Path to 1M by 2030 in 7 countries

Target Projection | Phased roll-out for 7 countries | Don’t Reset weights for each country

If the other 5 countries were rolled out in phases as from 2022 i.e:

  • Ethiopia: 2022
  • Ghana: 2023
  • Nigeria: 2024
  • Cote d’ivoire: 2025
  • Tanzania: 2026

Model Benchmark

  • Progressively weight the student population per year & per country
  • [0.06% (2021) to 0.6% (2030)]
  • For each year, the weights doesn’t reset.
  • Start with 0.06% of the population per country in 2021
  • End with 0.6% of the population per country in 2030

## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0006 NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0006 NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0006 NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0006 2,204 2,204 3,510
Y 2021 Nigeria NA NA 0.0006 NA 2,204 NA
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0006 361 2,565 NA
Y 2021 Tanzania NA NA 0.0006 NA 2,565 NA
Y 2022 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0012 NA 2,565 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0012 7,171 9,736 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0012 NA 9,736 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0012 4,546 14,282 NA
Y 2022 Nigeria NA NA 0.0012 NA 14,282 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0012 762 15,044 NA
Y 2022 Tanzania NA NA 0.0012 NA 15,044 NA
Y 2023 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0018 NA 15,044 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 NA 0.0018 10,896 25,940 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 NA 0.0018 4,988 30,928 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 NA 0.0018 7,031 37,959 NA
Y 2023 Nigeria NA NA 0.0018 NA 37,959 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 NA 0.0018 1,206 39,165 NA
Y 2023 Tanzania NA NA 0.0018 NA 39,165 NA
Y 2024 Cote d’Ivoire 2,242,396.4 NA 0.0024 5,349 44,514 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 NA 0.0024 14,739 59,253 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 NA 0.0024 6,839 66,092 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 NA 0.0024 9,664 75,756 NA
Y 2024 Nigeria NA NA 0.0024 NA 75,756 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 NA 0.0024 1,696 77,452 NA
Y 2024 Tanzania NA NA 0.0024 NA 77,452 NA
Y 2025 Cote d’Ivoire 2,294,696.9 NA 0.0030 6,842 84,294 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 NA 0.0030 18,717 103,011 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 NA 0.0030 8,790 111,801 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 NA 0.0030 12,449 124,250 NA
Y 2025 Nigeria NA NA 0.0030 NA 124,250 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 NA 0.0030 2,233 126,483 NA
Y 2025 Tanzania 2,849,904.3 NA 0.0030 8,497 134,980 NA
Y 2026 Cote d’Ivoire 2,346,612.2 0.0697 0.0036 8,396 143,376 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.1895 0.0036 22,846 166,222 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.0900 0.0036 10,843 177,065 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.1277 0.0036 15,391 192,456 NA
Y 2026 Nigeria 13,833,379.4 0.4106 0.0036 49,494 241,950 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0234 0.0036 2,820 244,770 NA
Y 2026 Tanzania 3,002,891.7 0.0891 0.0036 10,744 255,514 NA
Y 2027 Cote d’Ivoire 2,398,120.8 0.0689 0.0042 10,010 265,524 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.1868 0.0042 27,141 292,665 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.0895 0.0042 13,001 305,666 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.1273 0.0042 18,494 324,160 NA
Y 2027 Nigeria 14,364,858.4 0.4128 0.0042 59,962 384,122 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0238 0.0042 3,460 387,582 NA
Y 2027 Tanzania 3,161,179.9 0.0908 0.0042 13,195 400,777 NA
Y 2028 Cote d’Ivoire 2,449,202.7 0.0681 0.0048 11,684 412,461 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.1844 0.0048 31,614 444,075 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.0890 0.0048 15,267 459,342 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.1269 0.0048 21,763 481,105 NA
Y 2028 Nigeria 14,909,580.6 0.4148 0.0048 71,126 552,231 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0242 0.0048 4,155 556,386 NA
Y 2028 Tanzania 3,324,866.0 0.0925 0.0048 15,861 572,247 NA
Y 2029 Cote d’Ivoire 2,499,839.4 0.0673 0.0054 13,416 585,663 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.1821 0.0054 36,276 621,939 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.0886 0.0054 17,643 639,582 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.1265 0.0054 25,204 664,786 NA
Y 2029 Nigeria 15,467,721.1 0.4167 0.0054 83,012 747,798 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0246 0.0054 4,909 752,707 NA
Y 2029 Tanzania 3,494,047.6 0.0941 0.0054 18,752 771,459 NA
Y 2030 Cote d’Ivoire 2,550,013.5 0.0665 0.0060 15,206 786,665 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.1800 0.0060 41,134 827,799 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.0881 0.0060 20,134 847,933 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.1261 0.0060 28,820 876,753 NA
Y 2030 Nigeria 16,039,455.9 0.4185 0.0060 95,645 972,398 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0250 0.0060 5,724 978,122 NA
Y 2030 Tanzania 3,668,822.7 0.0957 0.0060 21,878 1,000,000 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"

Kenya Alpha

  • Kenya Alpha is an average of KE1 alpha and KE2 alpha
  • Kenya Alpha = {( KE1-Actual/KE1-Target ) + ( KE2-Actual/KE2-Target ) } / 2
  • Kenya Alpha = ((1851/1613 )+ (4884/3582))/2
  • Kenya Alpha = 1.255518

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  1,255,518"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0005 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0005 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ghana NA NA 0.0005 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 NA 0.0005 1,613 2,025 2,025 1,851
Y 2019 Nigeria NA NA 0.0005 NA NA 2,025 NA
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 NA 0.0005 336 422 2,447 NA
Y 2019 Tanzania NA NA 0.0005 NA NA 2,447 NA
Y 2020 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 2,447 NA
Y 2020 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 2,447 NA
Y 2020 Ghana NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 2,447 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 NA 0.0009 3,291 4,132 6,579 4,884
Y 2020 Nigeria NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 6,579 NA
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 NA 0.0009 512 643 7,222 3,574
Y 2020 Tanzania NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 7,222 NA
Y 2021 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0014 NA NA 7,222 NA
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0014 NA NA 7,222 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0014 NA NA 7,222 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0014 5,094 6,396 13,618 3,510
Y 2021 Nigeria NA NA 0.0014 NA NA 13,618 NA
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0014 834 1,047 14,665 NA
Y 2021 Tanzania NA NA 0.0014 NA NA 14,665 NA
Y 2022 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 14,665 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0018 11,050 13,873 28,538 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 28,538 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0018 7,005 8,795 37,333 NA
Y 2022 Nigeria NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 37,333 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0018 1,175 1,475 38,808 NA
Y 2022 Tanzania NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 38,808 NA
Y 2023 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0023 NA NA 38,808 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 NA 0.0023 13,993 17,568 56,376 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 NA 0.0023 6,405 8,042 64,418 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 NA 0.0023 9,029 11,336 75,754 NA
Y 2023 Nigeria NA NA 0.0023 NA NA 75,754 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 NA 0.0023 1,549 1,945 77,699 NA
Y 2023 Tanzania NA NA 0.0023 NA NA 77,699 NA
Y 2024 Cote d’Ivoire 2,242,396.4 NA 0.0028 6,182 7,762 85,461 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 NA 0.0028 17,035 21,388 106,849 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 NA 0.0028 7,905 9,925 116,774 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 NA 0.0028 11,169 14,023 130,797 NA
Y 2024 Nigeria NA NA 0.0028 NA NA 130,797 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 NA 0.0028 1,960 2,461 133,258 NA
Y 2024 Tanzania NA NA 0.0028 NA NA 133,258 NA
Y 2025 Cote d’Ivoire 2,294,696.9 NA 0.0032 7,380 9,266 142,524 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 NA 0.0032 20,190 25,349 167,873 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 NA 0.0032 9,482 11,905 179,778 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 NA 0.0032 13,429 16,860 196,638 NA
Y 2025 Nigeria NA NA 0.0032 NA NA 196,638 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 NA 0.0032 2,409 3,025 199,663 NA
Y 2025 Tanzania 2,849,904.3 NA 0.0032 9,166 11,508 211,171 NA
Y 2026 Cote d’Ivoire 2,346,612.2 0.0697 0.0037 8,626 10,830 222,001 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.1895 0.0037 23,471 29,468 251,469 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.0900 0.0037 11,140 13,986 265,455 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.1277 0.0037 15,811 19,851 285,306 NA
Y 2026 Nigeria 13,833,379.4 0.4106 0.0037 50,848 63,841 349,147 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0234 0.0037 2,897 3,637 352,784 NA
Y 2026 Tanzania 3,002,891.7 0.0891 0.0037 11,038 13,858 366,642 NA
Y 2027 Cote d’Ivoire 2,398,120.8 0.0689 0.0041 9,917 12,451 379,093 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.1868 0.0041 26,887 33,757 412,850 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.0895 0.0041 12,880 16,171 429,021 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.1273 0.0041 18,321 23,002 452,023 NA
Y 2027 Nigeria 14,364,858.4 0.4128 0.0041 59,402 74,580 526,603 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0238 0.0041 3,428 4,304 530,907 NA
Y 2027 Tanzania 3,161,179.9 0.0908 0.0041 13,072 16,412 547,319 NA
Y 2028 Cote d’Ivoire 2,449,202.7 0.0681 0.0046 11,253 14,128 561,447 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.1844 0.0046 30,449 38,229 599,676 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.0890 0.0046 14,704 18,461 618,137 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.1269 0.0046 20,961 26,317 644,454 NA
Y 2028 Nigeria 14,909,580.6 0.4148 0.0046 68,505 86,009 730,463 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0242 0.0046 4,002 5,025 735,488 NA
Y 2028 Tanzania 3,324,866.0 0.0925 0.0046 15,277 19,181 754,669 NA
Y 2029 Cote d’Ivoire 2,499,839.4 0.0673 0.0051 12,635 15,863 770,532 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.1821 0.0051 34,162 42,891 813,423 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.0886 0.0051 16,616 20,862 834,285 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.1265 0.0051 23,735 29,800 864,085 NA
Y 2029 Nigeria 15,467,721.1 0.4167 0.0051 78,176 98,151 962,236 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0246 0.0051 4,623 5,804 968,040 NA
Y 2029 Tanzania 3,494,047.6 0.0941 0.0051 17,659 22,171 990,211 NA
Y 2030 Cote d’Ivoire 2,550,013.5 0.0665 0.0055 14,060 17,653 1,007,864 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.1800 0.0055 38,033 47,751 1,055,615 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.0881 0.0055 18,616 23,373 1,078,988 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.1261 0.0055 26,648 33,457 1,112,445 NA
Y 2030 Nigeria 16,039,455.9 0.4185 0.0055 88,435 111,032 1,223,477 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0250 0.0055 5,292 6,644 1,230,121 NA
Y 2030 Tanzania 3,668,822.7 0.0957 0.0055 20,228 25,397 1,255,518 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  1,255,518"

Rwanda Alpha

  • Rwanda Alpha = RW1-Actual / RW1-Target
  • Rwanda Alpha = 3574 / 512
  • Rwanda Alpha = 6.98

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  6,980,470"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0005 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0005 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ghana NA NA 0.0005 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 NA 0.0005 1,613 11,259 11,259 1,851
Y 2019 Nigeria NA NA 0.0005 NA NA 11,259 NA
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 NA 0.0005 336 2,345 13,604 NA
Y 2019 Tanzania NA NA 0.0005 NA NA 13,604 NA
Y 2020 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 13,604 NA
Y 2020 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 13,604 NA
Y 2020 Ghana NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 13,604 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 NA 0.0009 3,291 22,973 36,577 4,884
Y 2020 Nigeria NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 36,577 NA
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 NA 0.0009 512 3,574 40,151 3,574
Y 2020 Tanzania NA NA 0.0009 NA NA 40,151 NA
Y 2021 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0014 NA NA 40,151 NA
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0014 NA NA 40,151 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0014 NA NA 40,151 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0014 5,094 35,559 75,710 3,510
Y 2021 Nigeria NA NA 0.0014 NA NA 75,710 NA
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0014 834 5,822 81,532 NA
Y 2021 Tanzania NA NA 0.0014 NA NA 81,532 NA
Y 2022 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 81,532 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0018 11,050 77,134 158,666 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 158,666 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0018 7,005 48,898 207,564 NA
Y 2022 Nigeria NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 207,564 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0018 1,175 8,202 215,766 NA
Y 2022 Tanzania NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 215,766 NA
Y 2023 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0023 NA NA 215,766 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 NA 0.0023 13,993 97,678 313,444 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 NA 0.0023 6,405 44,710 358,154 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 NA 0.0023 9,029 63,027 421,181 NA
Y 2023 Nigeria NA NA 0.0023 NA NA 421,181 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 NA 0.0023 1,549 10,813 431,994 NA
Y 2023 Tanzania NA NA 0.0023 NA NA 431,994 NA
Y 2024 Cote d’Ivoire 2,242,396.4 NA 0.0028 6,182 43,153 475,147 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 NA 0.0028 17,035 118,912 594,059 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 NA 0.0028 7,905 55,181 649,240 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 NA 0.0028 11,169 77,965 727,205 NA
Y 2024 Nigeria NA NA 0.0028 NA NA 727,205 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 NA 0.0028 1,960 13,682 740,887 NA
Y 2024 Tanzania NA NA 0.0028 NA NA 740,887 NA
Y 2025 Cote d’Ivoire 2,294,696.9 NA 0.0032 7,380 51,516 792,403 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 NA 0.0032 20,190 140,936 933,339 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 NA 0.0032 9,482 66,189 999,528 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 NA 0.0032 13,429 93,741 1,093,269 NA
Y 2025 Nigeria NA NA 0.0032 NA NA 1,093,269 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 NA 0.0032 2,409 16,816 1,110,085 NA
Y 2025 Tanzania 2,849,904.3 NA 0.0032 9,166 63,983 1,174,068 NA
Y 2026 Cote d’Ivoire 2,346,612.2 0.0697 0.0037 8,626 60,214 1,234,282 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.1895 0.0037 23,471 163,839 1,398,121 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.0900 0.0037 11,140 77,762 1,475,883 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.1277 0.0037 15,811 110,368 1,586,251 NA
Y 2026 Nigeria 13,833,379.4 0.4106 0.0037 50,848 354,943 1,941,194 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0234 0.0037 2,897 20,222 1,961,416 NA
Y 2026 Tanzania 3,002,891.7 0.0891 0.0037 11,038 77,050 2,038,466 NA
Y 2027 Cote d’Ivoire 2,398,120.8 0.0689 0.0041 9,917 69,225 2,107,691 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.1868 0.0041 26,887 187,684 2,295,375 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.0895 0.0041 12,880 89,908 2,385,283 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.1273 0.0041 18,321 127,889 2,513,172 NA
Y 2027 Nigeria 14,364,858.4 0.4128 0.0041 59,402 414,654 2,927,826 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0238 0.0041 3,428 23,929 2,951,755 NA
Y 2027 Tanzania 3,161,179.9 0.0908 0.0041 13,072 91,249 3,043,004 NA
Y 2028 Cote d’Ivoire 2,449,202.7 0.0681 0.0046 11,253 78,551 3,121,555 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.1844 0.0046 30,449 212,548 3,334,103 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.0890 0.0046 14,704 102,641 3,436,744 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.1269 0.0046 20,961 146,318 3,583,062 NA
Y 2028 Nigeria 14,909,580.6 0.4148 0.0046 68,505 478,197 4,061,259 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0242 0.0046 4,002 27,936 4,089,195 NA
Y 2028 Tanzania 3,324,866.0 0.0925 0.0046 15,277 106,641 4,195,836 NA
Y 2029 Cote d’Ivoire 2,499,839.4 0.0673 0.0051 12,635 88,198 4,284,034 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.1821 0.0051 34,162 238,467 4,522,501 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.0886 0.0051 16,616 115,987 4,638,488 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.1265 0.0051 23,735 165,681 4,804,169 NA
Y 2029 Nigeria 15,467,721.1 0.4167 0.0051 78,176 545,705 5,349,874 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0246 0.0051 4,623 32,271 5,382,145 NA
Y 2029 Tanzania 3,494,047.6 0.0941 0.0051 17,659 123,268 5,505,413 NA
Y 2030 Cote d’Ivoire 2,550,013.5 0.0665 0.0055 14,060 98,145 5,603,558 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.1800 0.0055 38,033 265,488 5,869,046 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.0881 0.0055 18,616 129,948 5,998,994 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.1261 0.0055 26,648 186,016 6,185,010 NA
Y 2030 Nigeria 16,039,455.9 0.4185 0.0055 88,435 617,318 6,802,328 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0250 0.0055 5,292 36,941 6,839,269 NA
Y 2030 Tanzania 3,668,822.7 0.0957 0.0055 20,228 141,201 6,980,470 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  6,980,470"

1M Engagement Target

To arrive at 1M engagement BHAG, we need to oversample the number of targeted registered learners by 30%

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,576"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target engagement_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0006 2,204 3,149 3,149 3,510
Y 2021 Nigeria NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 3,149 NA
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0006 361 516 3,665 NA
Y 2021 Tanzania NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 3,665 NA
Y 2022 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 3,665 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0012 7,171 10,244 13,909 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 13,909 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0012 4,546 6,494 20,403 NA
Y 2022 Nigeria NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 20,403 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0012 762 1,089 21,492 NA
Y 2022 Tanzania NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 21,492 NA
Y 2023 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 21,492 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 NA 0.0018 10,896 15,566 37,058 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 NA 0.0018 4,988 7,126 44,184 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 NA 0.0018 7,031 10,044 54,228 NA
Y 2023 Nigeria NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 54,228 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 NA 0.0018 1,206 1,723 55,951 NA
Y 2023 Tanzania NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 55,951 NA
Y 2024 Cote d’Ivoire 2,242,396.4 NA 0.0024 5,349 7,641 63,592 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 NA 0.0024 14,739 21,056 84,648 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 NA 0.0024 6,839 9,770 94,418 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 NA 0.0024 9,664 13,806 108,224 NA
Y 2024 Nigeria NA NA 0.0024 NA NA 108,224 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 NA 0.0024 1,696 2,423 110,647 NA
Y 2024 Tanzania NA NA 0.0024 NA NA 110,647 NA
Y 2025 Cote d’Ivoire 2,294,696.9 NA 0.0030 6,842 9,774 120,421 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 NA 0.0030 18,717 26,739 147,160 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 NA 0.0030 8,790 12,557 159,717 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 NA 0.0030 12,449 17,784 177,501 NA
Y 2025 Nigeria NA NA 0.0030 NA NA 177,501 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 NA 0.0030 2,233 3,190 180,691 NA
Y 2025 Tanzania 2,849,904.3 NA 0.0030 8,497 12,139 192,830 NA
Y 2026 Cote d’Ivoire 2,346,612.2 0.0697 0.0036 8,396 11,994 204,824 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.1895 0.0036 22,846 32,637 237,461 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.0900 0.0036 10,843 15,490 252,951 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.1277 0.0036 15,391 21,987 274,938 NA
Y 2026 Nigeria 13,833,379.4 0.4106 0.0036 49,494 70,706 345,644 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0234 0.0036 2,820 4,029 349,673 NA
Y 2026 Tanzania 3,002,891.7 0.0891 0.0036 10,744 15,349 365,022 NA
Y 2027 Cote d’Ivoire 2,398,120.8 0.0689 0.0042 10,010 14,300 379,322 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.1868 0.0042 27,141 38,773 418,095 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.0895 0.0042 13,001 18,573 436,668 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.1273 0.0042 18,494 26,420 463,088 NA
Y 2027 Nigeria 14,364,858.4 0.4128 0.0042 59,962 85,660 548,748 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0238 0.0042 3,460 4,943 553,691 NA
Y 2027 Tanzania 3,161,179.9 0.0908 0.0042 13,195 18,850 572,541 NA
Y 2028 Cote d’Ivoire 2,449,202.7 0.0681 0.0048 11,684 16,691 589,232 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.1844 0.0048 31,614 45,163 634,395 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.0890 0.0048 15,267 21,810 656,205 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.1269 0.0048 21,763 31,090 687,295 NA
Y 2028 Nigeria 14,909,580.6 0.4148 0.0048 71,126 101,609 788,904 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0242 0.0048 4,155 5,936 794,840 NA
Y 2028 Tanzania 3,324,866.0 0.0925 0.0048 15,861 22,659 817,499 NA
Y 2029 Cote d’Ivoire 2,499,839.4 0.0673 0.0054 13,416 19,166 836,665 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.1821 0.0054 36,276 51,823 888,488 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.0886 0.0054 17,643 25,204 913,692 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.1265 0.0054 25,204 36,006 949,698 NA
Y 2029 Nigeria 15,467,721.1 0.4167 0.0054 83,012 118,589 1,068,287 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0246 0.0054 4,909 7,013 1,075,300 NA
Y 2029 Tanzania 3,494,047.6 0.0941 0.0054 18,752 26,789 1,102,089 NA
Y 2030 Cote d’Ivoire 2,550,013.5 0.0665 0.0060 15,206 21,723 1,123,812 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.1800 0.0060 41,134 58,763 1,182,575 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.0881 0.0060 20,134 28,763 1,211,338 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.1261 0.0060 28,820 41,171 1,252,509 NA
Y 2030 Nigeria 16,039,455.9 0.4185 0.0060 95,645 136,636 1,389,145 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0250 0.0060 5,724 8,177 1,397,322 NA
Y 2030 Tanzania 3,668,822.7 0.0957 0.0060 21,878 31,254 1,428,576 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,576"

Target Projection | Phased roll-out for 7 countries | Reset weights for each country

If the other 5 countries were rolled out in phases as from 2022 with baseline weights for each country i.e:

  • Ethiopia: 2022
  • Ghana: 2023
  • Nigeria: 2024
  • Cote d’ivoire: 2025
  • Tanzania: 2026

Model Benchmark

  • Progressively weight the student population per year & per country
  • Reset weights for each country and increase weight by + 0.0008
  • [0.08% (2021) to different weights for each country]
  • Start with 0.08% of the population per country in 2021
  • End with country specific weights of the population in 2030

## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0000 NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0008 3,128 3,128 3,510
Y 2021 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA 3,128 NA
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0008 512 3,640 NA
Y 2021 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA 3,640 NA
Y 2022 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA 3,640 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0008 5,089 8,729 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA 8,729 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0017 6,452 15,181 NA
Y 2022 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA 15,181 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0017 1,082 16,263 NA
Y 2022 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA 16,263 NA
Y 2023 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA 16,263 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 NA 0.0017 10,310 26,573 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 NA 0.0008 2,360 28,933 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 NA 0.0025 9,979 38,912 NA
Y 2023 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA 38,912 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 NA 0.0025 1,712 40,624 NA
Y 2023 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA 40,624 NA
Y 2024 Cote d’Ivoire 2,242,396.4 NA 0.0000 0 40,624 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 NA 0.0025 15,689 56,313 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 NA 0.0017 4,854 61,167 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 NA 0.0034 13,716 74,883 NA
Y 2024 Nigeria NA NA 0.0008 NA 74,883 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 NA 0.0034 2,407 77,290 NA
Y 2024 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA 77,290 NA
Y 2025 Cote d’Ivoire 2,294,696.9 NA 0.0008 1,942 79,232 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 NA 0.0034 21,252 100,484 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 NA 0.0025 7,486 107,970 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 NA 0.0042 17,669 125,639 NA
Y 2025 Nigeria NA NA 0.0017 NA 125,639 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 NA 0.0042 3,169 128,808 NA
Y 2025 Tanzania 2,849,904.3 NA 0.0000 0 128,808 NA
Y 2026 Cote d’Ivoire 2,346,612.2 0.0697 0.0017 3,972 132,780 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.1895 0.0042 27,021 159,801 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.0900 0.0034 10,260 170,061 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.1277 0.0051 21,844 191,905 NA
Y 2026 Nigeria 13,833,379.4 0.4106 0.0025 35,124 227,029 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0234 0.0051 4,002 231,031 NA
Y 2026 Tanzania 3,002,891.7 0.0891 0.0008 2,542 233,573 NA
Y 2027 Cote d’Ivoire 2,398,120.8 0.0689 0.0025 6,089 239,662 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.1868 0.0051 33,018 272,680 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.0895 0.0042 13,180 285,860 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.1273 0.0059 26,248 312,108 NA
Y 2027 Nigeria 14,364,858.4 0.4128 0.0034 48,631 360,739 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0238 0.0059 4,911 365,650 NA
Y 2027 Tanzania 3,161,179.9 0.0908 0.0017 5,351 371,001 NA
Y 2028 Cote d’Ivoire 2,449,202.7 0.0681 0.0034 8,292 379,293 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.1844 0.0059 39,262 418,555 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.0890 0.0051 16,251 434,806 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.1269 0.0068 30,889 465,695 NA
Y 2028 Nigeria 14,909,580.6 0.4148 0.0042 63,094 528,789 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0242 0.0068 5,898 534,687 NA
Y 2028 Tanzania 3,324,866.0 0.0925 0.0025 8,442 543,129 NA
Y 2029 Cote d’Ivoire 2,499,839.4 0.0673 0.0042 10,579 553,708 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.1821 0.0068 45,766 599,474 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.0886 0.0059 19,477 618,951 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.1265 0.0076 35,772 654,723 NA
Y 2029 Nigeria 15,467,721.1 0.4167 0.0051 78,547 733,270 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0246 0.0076 6,967 740,237 NA
Y 2029 Tanzania 3,494,047.6 0.0941 0.0034 11,829 752,066 NA
Y 2030 Cote d’Ivoire 2,550,013.5 0.0665 0.0051 12,949 765,015 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.1800 0.0076 52,543 817,558 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.0881 0.0068 22,861 840,419 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.1261 0.0085 40,905 881,324 NA
Y 2030 Nigeria 16,039,455.9 0.4185 0.0059 95,026 976,350 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0250 0.0085 8,124 984,474 NA
Y 2030 Tanzania 3,668,822.7 0.0957 0.0042 15,526 1,000,000 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative:  1,000,000"

Kenya Alpha

  • Kenya Alpha is an average of KE1 alpha and KE2 alpha
  • Kenya Alpha = {(KE1-Actual/KE1-Target ) + (KE1-Actual/KE2-Target ) } / 2
  • Kenya Alpha = ((1851/2,089 )+ (4,884/3582))/2
  • Kenya Alpha = 1.033156

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  1,016,142"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 NA 0.0006 2,089 2,123 2,123 1,851
Y 2019 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 2,123 NA
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 NA 0.0006 436 443 2,566 NA
Y 2019 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 2,566 NA
Y 2020 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 2,566 NA
Y 2020 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 2,566 NA
Y 2020 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 2,566 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 NA 0.0012 4,261 4,330 6,896 4,884
Y 2020 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 6,896 NA
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 NA 0.0012 662 673 7,569 3,574
Y 2020 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 7,569 NA
Y 2021 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 7,569 NA
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 7,569 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 7,569 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0018 6,595 6,701 14,270 3,510
Y 2021 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 14,270 NA
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0018 1,080 1,097 15,367 NA
Y 2021 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 15,367 NA
Y 2022 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 15,367 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0018 10,730 10,903 26,270 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 26,270 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0024 9,070 9,216 35,486 NA
Y 2022 Nigeria NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 35,486 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0024 1,521 1,546 37,032 NA
Y 2022 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 37,032 NA
Y 2023 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 37,032 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 NA 0.0024 14,493 14,727 51,759 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 NA 0.0018 4,976 5,056 56,815 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 NA 0.0030 11,691 11,880 68,695 NA
Y 2023 Nigeria NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 68,695 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 NA 0.0030 2,006 2,038 70,733 NA
Y 2023 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 70,733 NA
Y 2024 Cote d’Ivoire 2,242,396.4 NA 0.0012 2,668 2,711 73,444 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 NA 0.0030 18,379 18,676 92,120 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 NA 0.0024 6,823 6,933 99,053 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 NA 0.0036 14,461 14,694 113,747 NA
Y 2024 Nigeria NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 113,747 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 NA 0.0036 2,538 2,579 116,326 NA
Y 2024 Tanzania NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 116,326 NA
Y 2025 Cote d’Ivoire 2,294,696.9 NA 0.0018 4,095 4,161 120,487 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 NA 0.0036 22,406 22,768 143,255 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 NA 0.0030 8,769 8,911 152,166 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 NA 0.0042 17,387 17,668 169,834 NA
Y 2025 Nigeria NA NA 0.0024 NA NA 169,834 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 NA 0.0042 3,118 3,168 173,002 NA
Y 2025 Tanzania 2,849,904.3 NA 0.0012 3,391 3,446 176,448 NA
Y 2026 Cote d’Ivoire 2,346,612.2 0.0697 0.0024 5,584 5,674 182,122 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.1895 0.0042 26,590 27,019 209,141 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.0900 0.0036 10,817 10,992 220,133 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.1277 0.0048 20,472 20,802 240,935 NA
Y 2026 Nigeria 13,833,379.4 0.4106 0.0030 41,146 41,810 282,745 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0234 0.0048 3,751 3,812 286,557 NA
Y 2026 Tanzania 3,002,891.7 0.0891 0.0018 5,359 5,445 292,002 NA
Y 2027 Cote d’Ivoire 2,398,120.8 0.0689 0.0030 7,133 7,248 299,250 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.1868 0.0048 30,944 31,443 330,693 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.0895 0.0042 12,970 13,179 343,872 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.1273 0.0054 23,721 24,104 367,976 NA
Y 2027 Nigeria 14,364,858.4 0.4128 0.0036 51,272 52,100 420,076 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0238 0.0054 4,438 4,510 424,586 NA
Y 2027 Tanzania 3,161,179.9 0.0908 0.0024 7,522 7,643 432,229 NA
Y 2028 Cote d’Ivoire 2,449,202.7 0.0681 0.0036 8,742 8,883 441,112 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.1844 0.0054 35,481 36,054 477,166 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.0890 0.0048 15,230 15,476 492,642 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.1269 0.0059 27,139 27,577 520,219 NA
Y 2028 Nigeria 14,909,580.6 0.4148 0.0042 62,086 63,088 583,307 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0242 0.0059 5,182 5,266 588,573 NA
Y 2028 Tanzania 3,324,866.0 0.0925 0.0030 9,890 10,050 598,623 NA
Y 2029 Cote d’Ivoire 2,499,839.4 0.0673 0.0042 10,410 10,578 609,201 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.1821 0.0059 40,210 40,859 650,060 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.0886 0.0054 17,601 17,885 667,945 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.1265 0.0065 30,731 31,227 699,172 NA
Y 2029 Nigeria 15,467,721.1 0.4167 0.0048 73,612 74,800 773,972 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0246 0.0065 5,986 6,083 780,055 NA
Y 2029 Tanzania 3,494,047.6 0.0941 0.0036 12,471 12,672 792,727 NA
Y 2030 Cote d’Ivoire 2,550,013.5 0.0665 0.0048 12,136 12,332 805,059 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.1800 0.0065 45,138 45,867 850,926 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.0881 0.0059 20,086 20,410 871,336 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.1261 0.0071 34,501 35,058 906,394 NA
Y 2030 Nigeria 16,039,455.9 0.4185 0.0054 85,874 87,260 993,654 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0250 0.0071 6,852 6,963 1,000,617 NA
Y 2030 Tanzania 3,668,822.7 0.0957 0.0042 15,278 15,525 1,016,142 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (KE Alpha):  1,016,142"

Rwanda Alpha

  • Rwanda Alpha = RW1-Actual / RW1-Target
  • Rwanda Alpha = 3574 / 436
  • Rwanda Alpha = 6.98

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  8,197,250"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target alpha_target cum_target actual
Y 2019 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2019 Kenya 3,511,130.5 NA 0.0006 2,089 17,124 17,124 1,851
Y 2019 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 17,124 NA
Y 2019 Rwanda 732,104.0 NA 0.0006 436 3,574 20,698 NA
Y 2019 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 20,698 NA
Y 2020 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 20,698 NA
Y 2020 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 20,698 NA
Y 2020 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 20,698 NA
Y 2020 Kenya 3,581,780.0 NA 0.0012 4,261 34,928 55,626 4,884
Y 2020 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 55,626 NA
Y 2020 Rwanda 556,624.7 NA 0.0012 662 5,427 61,053 3,574
Y 2020 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 61,053 NA
Y 2021 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 61,053 NA
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 61,053 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 61,053 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0018 6,595 54,061 115,114 3,510
Y 2021 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 115,114 NA
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0018 1,080 8,853 123,967 NA
Y 2021 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 123,967 NA
Y 2022 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 123,967 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0018 10,730 87,956 211,923 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 211,923 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0024 9,070 74,349 286,272 NA
Y 2022 Nigeria NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 286,272 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0024 1,521 12,468 298,740 NA
Y 2022 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 298,740 NA
Y 2023 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 298,740 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 NA 0.0024 14,493 118,803 417,543 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 NA 0.0018 4,976 40,790 458,333 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 NA 0.0030 11,691 95,834 554,167 NA
Y 2023 Nigeria NA NA 0.0012 NA NA 554,167 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 NA 0.0030 2,006 16,444 570,611 NA
Y 2023 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 570,611 NA
Y 2024 Cote d’Ivoire 2,242,396.4 NA 0.0012 2,668 21,870 592,481 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 NA 0.0030 18,379 150,657 743,138 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 NA 0.0024 6,823 55,930 799,068 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 NA 0.0036 14,461 118,540 917,608 NA
Y 2024 Nigeria NA NA 0.0018 NA NA 917,608 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 NA 0.0036 2,538 20,805 938,413 NA
Y 2024 Tanzania NA NA 0.0006 NA NA 938,413 NA
Y 2025 Cote d’Ivoire 2,294,696.9 NA 0.0018 4,095 33,568 971,981 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 NA 0.0036 22,406 183,668 1,155,649 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 NA 0.0030 8,769 71,882 1,227,531 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 NA 0.0042 17,387 142,526 1,370,057 NA
Y 2025 Nigeria NA NA 0.0024 NA NA 1,370,057 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 NA 0.0042 3,118 25,559 1,395,616 NA
Y 2025 Tanzania 2,849,904.3 NA 0.0012 3,391 27,797 1,423,413 NA
Y 2026 Cote d’Ivoire 2,346,612.2 0.0697 0.0024 5,584 45,773 1,469,186 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.1895 0.0042 26,590 217,965 1,687,151 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.0900 0.0036 10,817 88,670 1,775,821 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.1277 0.0048 20,472 167,814 1,943,635 NA
Y 2026 Nigeria 13,833,379.4 0.4106 0.0030 41,146 337,284 2,280,919 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0234 0.0048 3,751 30,748 2,311,667 NA
Y 2026 Tanzania 3,002,891.7 0.0891 0.0018 5,359 43,929 2,355,596 NA
Y 2027 Cote d’Ivoire 2,398,120.8 0.0689 0.0030 7,133 58,471 2,414,067 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.1868 0.0048 30,944 253,656 2,667,723 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.0895 0.0042 12,970 106,318 2,774,041 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.1273 0.0054 23,721 194,447 2,968,488 NA
Y 2027 Nigeria 14,364,858.4 0.4128 0.0036 51,272 420,289 3,388,777 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0238 0.0054 4,438 36,379 3,425,156 NA
Y 2027 Tanzania 3,161,179.9 0.0908 0.0024 7,522 61,660 3,486,816 NA
Y 2028 Cote d’Ivoire 2,449,202.7 0.0681 0.0036 8,742 71,660 3,558,476 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.1844 0.0054 35,481 290,847 3,849,323 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.0890 0.0048 15,230 124,844 3,974,167 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.1269 0.0059 27,139 222,465 4,196,632 NA
Y 2028 Nigeria 14,909,580.6 0.4148 0.0042 62,086 508,934 4,705,566 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0242 0.0059 5,182 42,478 4,748,044 NA
Y 2028 Tanzania 3,324,866.0 0.0925 0.0030 9,890 81,071 4,829,115 NA
Y 2029 Cote d’Ivoire 2,499,839.4 0.0673 0.0042 10,410 85,333 4,914,448 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.1821 0.0059 40,210 329,611 5,244,059 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.0886 0.0054 17,601 144,280 5,388,339 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.1265 0.0065 30,731 251,910 5,640,249 NA
Y 2029 Nigeria 15,467,721.1 0.4167 0.0048 73,612 603,416 6,243,665 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0246 0.0065 5,986 49,069 6,292,734 NA
Y 2029 Tanzania 3,494,047.6 0.0941 0.0036 12,471 102,228 6,394,962 NA
Y 2030 Cote d’Ivoire 2,550,013.5 0.0665 0.0048 12,136 99,482 6,494,444 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.1800 0.0065 45,138 370,007 6,864,451 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.0881 0.0059 20,086 164,650 7,029,101 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.1261 0.0071 34,501 282,813 7,311,914 NA
Y 2030 Nigeria 16,039,455.9 0.4185 0.0054 85,874 703,930 8,015,844 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0250 0.0071 6,852 56,168 8,072,012 NA
Y 2030 Tanzania 3,668,822.7 0.0957 0.0042 15,278 125,238 8,197,250 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (RW Alpha):  8,197,250"

1M Engagement Target

To arrive at 1M engagement BHAG, we need to oversample the number of targeted registered learners by 30%

## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,573"
Year Country student_pop prop weight min_target engagement_target cum_target actual
Y 2021 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ethiopia NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 0 NA
Y 2021 Kenya 3,695,520.0 NA 0.0008 3,128 4,469 4,469 3,510
Y 2021 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 4,469 NA
Y 2021 Rwanda 605,253.1 NA 0.0008 512 731 5,200 NA
Y 2021 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 5,200 NA
Y 2022 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 5,200 NA
Y 2022 Ethiopia 6,012,530.4 NA 0.0008 5,089 7,270 12,470 NA
Y 2022 Ghana NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 12,470 NA
Y 2022 Kenya 3,811,709.1 NA 0.0017 6,452 9,217 21,687 NA
Y 2022 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 21,687 NA
Y 2022 Rwanda 639,178.1 NA 0.0017 1,082 1,546 23,233 NA
Y 2022 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 23,233 NA
Y 2023 Cote d’Ivoire NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 23,233 NA
Y 2023 Ethiopia 6,090,861.6 NA 0.0017 10,310 14,729 37,962 NA
Y 2023 Ghana 2,788,099.9 NA 0.0008 2,360 3,371 41,333 NA
Y 2023 Kenya 3,930,381.1 NA 0.0025 9,979 14,256 55,589 NA
Y 2023 Nigeria NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 55,589 NA
Y 2023 Rwanda 674,400.3 NA 0.0025 1,712 2,446 58,035 NA
Y 2023 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 58,035 NA
Y 2024 Cote d’Ivoire 2,242,396.4 NA 0.0000 0 0 58,035 NA
Y 2024 Ethiopia 6,179,162.5 NA 0.0025 15,689 22,413 80,448 NA
Y 2024 Ghana 2,867,360.7 NA 0.0017 4,854 6,934 87,382 NA
Y 2024 Kenya 4,051,565.4 NA 0.0034 13,716 19,594 106,976 NA
Y 2024 Nigeria NA NA 0.0008 NA NA 106,976 NA
Y 2024 Rwanda 710,949.8 NA 0.0034 2,407 3,439 110,415 NA
Y 2024 Tanzania NA NA 0.0000 NA NA 110,415 NA
Y 2025 Cote d’Ivoire 2,294,696.9 NA 0.0008 1,942 2,774 113,189 NA
Y 2025 Ethiopia 6,277,444.3 NA 0.0034 21,252 30,360 143,549 NA
Y 2025 Ghana 2,948,186.7 NA 0.0025 7,486 10,694 154,243 NA
Y 2025 Kenya 4,175,291.5 NA 0.0042 17,669 25,241 179,484 NA
Y 2025 Nigeria NA NA 0.0017 NA NA 179,484 NA
Y 2025 Rwanda 748,857.6 NA 0.0042 3,169 4,527 184,011 NA
Y 2025 Tanzania 2,849,904.3 NA 0.0000 0 0 184,011 NA
Y 2026 Cote d’Ivoire 2,346,612.2 0.0697 0.0017 3,972 5,674 189,685 NA
Y 2026 Ethiopia 6,385,297.4 0.1895 0.0042 27,021 38,601 228,286 NA
Y 2026 Ghana 3,030,596.2 0.0900 0.0034 10,260 14,657 242,943 NA
Y 2026 Kenya 4,301,589.2 0.1277 0.0051 21,844 31,206 274,149 NA
Y 2026 Nigeria 13,833,379.4 0.4106 0.0025 35,124 50,177 324,326 NA
Y 2026 Rwanda 788,154.5 0.0234 0.0051 4,002 5,717 330,043 NA
Y 2026 Tanzania 3,002,891.7 0.0891 0.0008 2,542 3,631 333,674 NA
Y 2027 Cote d’Ivoire 2,398,120.8 0.0689 0.0025 6,089 8,699 342,373 NA
Y 2027 Ethiopia 6,502,069.5 0.1868 0.0051 33,018 47,169 389,542 NA
Y 2027 Ghana 3,114,607.3 0.0895 0.0042 13,180 18,829 408,371 NA
Y 2027 Kenya 4,430,488.0 0.1273 0.0059 26,248 37,497 445,868 NA
Y 2027 Nigeria 14,364,858.4 0.4128 0.0034 48,631 69,473 515,341 NA
Y 2027 Rwanda 828,871.9 0.0238 0.0059 4,911 7,016 522,357 NA
Y 2027 Tanzania 3,161,179.9 0.0908 0.0017 5,351 7,644 530,001 NA
Y 2028 Cote d’Ivoire 2,449,202.7 0.0681 0.0034 8,292 11,846 541,847 NA
Y 2028 Ethiopia 6,626,985.1 0.1844 0.0059 39,262 56,089 597,936 NA
Y 2028 Ghana 3,200,238.3 0.0890 0.0051 16,251 23,216 621,152 NA
Y 2028 Kenya 4,562,017.9 0.1269 0.0068 30,889 44,127 665,279 NA
Y 2028 Nigeria 14,909,580.6 0.4148 0.0042 63,094 90,134 755,413 NA
Y 2028 Rwanda 871,041.6 0.0242 0.0068 5,898 8,426 763,839 NA
Y 2028 Tanzania 3,324,866.0 0.0925 0.0025 8,442 12,060 775,899 NA
Y 2029 Cote d’Ivoire 2,499,839.4 0.0673 0.0042 10,579 15,113 791,012 NA
Y 2029 Ethiopia 6,759,225.8 0.1821 0.0068 45,766 65,380 856,392 NA
Y 2029 Ghana 3,287,507.4 0.0886 0.0059 19,477 27,824 884,216 NA
Y 2029 Kenya 4,696,208.6 0.1265 0.0076 35,772 51,103 935,319 NA
Y 2029 Nigeria 15,467,721.1 0.4167 0.0051 78,547 112,210 1,047,529 NA
Y 2029 Rwanda 914,695.6 0.0246 0.0076 6,967 9,953 1,057,482 NA
Y 2029 Tanzania 3,494,047.6 0.0941 0.0034 11,829 16,899 1,074,381 NA
Y 2030 Cote d’Ivoire 2,550,013.5 0.0665 0.0051 12,949 18,499 1,092,880 NA
Y 2030 Ethiopia 6,897,980.6 0.1800 0.0076 52,543 75,061 1,167,941 NA
Y 2030 Ghana 3,376,433.2 0.0881 0.0068 22,861 32,659 1,200,600 NA
Y 2030 Kenya 4,833,090.2 0.1261 0.0085 40,905 58,436 1,259,036 NA
Y 2030 Nigeria 16,039,455.9 0.4185 0.0059 95,026 135,751 1,394,787 NA
Y 2030 Rwanda 959,866.3 0.0250 0.0085 8,124 11,606 1,406,393 NA
Y 2030 Tanzania 3,668,822.7 0.0957 0.0042 15,526 22,180 1,428,573 NA 
## [1] "Cumulative (Model):  1,000,000  |  Cumulative (Engagement Target):  1,428,573"