Talent Ratings: 2021 NFL Week 07

This file uses Madden 22 player ratings to create custom offensive and defensive power ratings. Subscribe to my Substack newsletter, Monte Carlo Football Picks, to learn more about the logic behind these calculations.

Load packages

library(tidyverse)
library(tidyquant)

Load files

madden22 <- read_csv("Week 07/inputs/madden_base.csv")
names <- read_csv("Week 07/inputs/names.csv", col_names = FALSE)
pos <- read_csv("Week 07/inputs/positions.csv")

Add position groups and full team names

madden <- madden22 %>%
  left_join(names, by = c("Team" = "X1")) %>%
  left_join(pos, by = "Position") %>%
  select("Full Name", X2, Position, Pos_group, Archetype, Injured, Benched, Overall) %>%
  rename(Name = "Full Name", Team = X2) %>%
  filter(Team != "FA")

head(madden, 10)

Set weights for positions

olw <- 0.35
qbw <- 0.45
wrw <- 0.2

cbw <- 0.4
bzw <- 0.4
buw <- 0.2

Create groupings of players: OL, QB, WR, CB, Blitzer, DEF

#group and sort offensive linemen; return 5th best OL on each team
OL <- madden %>%
  filter(Pos_group == "OL" & Injured == 0) %>%
  group_by(Team) %>%
  arrange(desc(Overall), .by_group = TRUE)  %>%
  slice(seq(0, 5, by = 5)) %>%
  mutate(role = "OL", rating_group = "OFF", OA_wt = Overall * olw)
  
#return top QB on each team
QB <- madden %>%
  filter(Position == "QB" & Injured == 0 & Benched == 0) %>%
  group_by(Team) %>%
  arrange(desc(Overall), .by_group = TRUE) %>%
  slice(seq(1, n(), by = 5)) %>%
  mutate(role = "QB", rating_group = "OFF", OA_wt = Overall * qbw) %>%
  ungroup()
  
#return top Receiver (WR or TE) on each team 
WR <- madden %>%
  filter(Pos_group == "REC" & Injured == 0) %>%
  group_by(Team) %>%
  arrange(desc(Overall), .by_group = TRUE) %>%
  slice(seq(1, n(), by = 25)) %>%
  mutate(role = "WR", rating_group = "OFF", OA_wt = Overall * wrw)

#return top CB on each team
CB <- madden %>%
  filter(Position == "CB" & Injured == 0) %>%
  group_by(Team) %>%
  arrange(desc(Overall), .by_group = TRUE) %>%
  slice(seq(1, n(), by = 15)) %>%
  mutate(role = "CB", rating_group = "DEF", OA_wt = Overall * cbw)

#return top pass rusher on each team
Blitz <- madden %>%
  filter(Archetype == "DT_PowerRusher" | Archetype == "DT_SpeedRusher" | Archetype == "DE_SmallerSpeedRusher" |
           Archetype == "DE_PowerRusher" | Archetype == "OLB_PowerRusher" | Archetype == "OLB_SpeedRusher") %>%
  filter(Injured == 0) %>%
  group_by(Team) %>%
  arrange(desc(Overall), .by_group = TRUE) %>%
  slice(seq(1, n(), by = 15)) %>%
  mutate(role = "BZ", rating_group = "DEF", OA_wt = Overall * bzw)

#return 12th best defensive player
Scrub <- madden %>%
  filter(Pos_group != "ST") %>%
  filter(Pos_group != "OL") %>%
  filter(Pos_group != "QB") %>%
  filter(Pos_group != "RB") %>%
  filter(Pos_group != "REC") %>%
  filter(Injured == 0) %>%
  group_by(Team) %>%
  arrange(desc(Overall), .by_group = TRUE) %>%
  slice(seq(12, n(), by = 100)) %>%
  mutate(role = "BU", rating_group = "DEF", OA_wt = Overall * buw)

Combine and save dataset

talent <- bind_rows(OL, QB, CB,WR, Blitz, Scrub) %>%
  arrange(desc(Team)) %>%
  select(Name, Team, Position, role, rating_group, Overall, OA_wt)
  
head(talent, 10)

Sum OA_wt by team, Offense and Defense

off_ratings <- talent %>%
  filter(rating_group == "OFF") %>%
  group_by(Team) %>%
  summarize(Rating = sum(OA_wt)) %>%
  mutate(scaled = scale(Rating, center = TRUE, scale = TRUE)) %>%
  mutate(off_rating = 25 + scaled * sd(Rating)) %>%
  select(Team, off_rating)

def_ratings <- talent %>%
  filter(rating_group == "DEF") %>%
  group_by(Team) %>%
  summarize(Rating = sum(OA_wt)) %>%
  mutate(scaled = scale(Rating, center = TRUE, scale = TRUE)) %>%
  mutate(def_rating = 50 - (25 + scaled * sd(Rating))) %>%
  select(Team, def_rating)

talent_ratings <- full_join(off_ratings, def_ratings, by = "Team")

write.csv(x = talent_ratings, file = "Week 07/talent_ratings.csv")

talent_ratings

NA