Objective and summary

I was curious if there is a statistically significant correlation between trust in government and vaccination level in various countries. The data I’ve taken from worldindata and OECD.

Apparently results are not statistically significant.

Model

First model is just vaccination level to trust.

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = covid_per_100 ~ trust, data = df)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -43.163  -7.014   1.259   9.503  24.153 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  48.8798     7.0170   6.966 2.74e-08 ***
## trust         0.2085     0.1360   1.533    0.134    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 14.04 on 38 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.05824,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.03346 
## F-statistic:  2.35 on 1 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.1336

Chart

Model for vaccinations vs trust + GDP + Earnings

Second model is including earnings as a second variable. Didn’t help.

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = covid_per_100 ~ trust + GDP + Earnings, data = df)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -18.399  -6.245   1.420   5.053  27.424 
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 52.0825806  8.7517113   5.951  1.6e-06 ***
## trust       -0.0032887  0.1468896  -0.022    0.982    
## GDP          0.0001172  0.0002426   0.483    0.633    
## Earnings     0.0001433  0.0003269   0.439    0.664    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 10.65 on 30 degrees of freedom
##   (6 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.1424, Adjusted R-squared:  0.05666 
## F-statistic: 1.661 on 3 and 30 DF,  p-value: 0.1965

Plot

Vaccination vs GDP/capita

Model for vaccines vs log from (GDP per capita).

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = covid_per_100 ~ log(GDP), data = filter(df, iso_code != 
##     "ZAF"))
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -18.537  -6.134  -0.318   5.351  28.412 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  -56.436     24.841  -2.272    0.029 *  
## log(GDP)      11.324      2.407   4.704  3.5e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 10.15 on 37 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.3743, Adjusted R-squared:  0.3574 
## F-statistic: 22.13 on 1 and 37 DF,  p-value: 3.502e-05

Plot for GDP vs vaccination. However not sure it shows more than access to vaccines.