Riding Wide Analysis

The graphs below in this section include all votes. This includes votes with an associated identifiable location (votes from polls on election day, mobile polls, and advanced polls) and votes without an associated identifiable location (i.e. votes from the ‘Special Voting Rules’ or SVR Category; commonly referred to as mail in or special ballots). SVR includes vote by mail, voting at elections canada offices, voting from a hospital, voting from a correctional facility, and a member of the Canadian Forces Voting at a military poll. More info on SVR can be found here: https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=vote&dir=spe&document=index&lang=e

There were a total of 63,234 votes in 2021. This corresponds to:

Election Results

Raw Vote Totals

year lpc cpc ndp gpc ppc Year Total
2019 22673 17359 9027 14579 1010 64648
2021 21500 19062 16265 4108 2299 63234

Advanced Polls vs. Election day

In 2021 we see that in the advanced polls, the tories won with the liberals slightly behind. On election day, the NDP came in second.

By Region

The graphs below do not include all votes; it excludes votes without an associated identifiable location (i.e. only includes election day & advanced polls). This means that it excludes SVR votes (defined above).

The total number of votes included in the regional analysis is 55,6733 or 89.7% of all votes.

We can note however, that the distribution of SVR is very similar to the distribution of all the votes, signalling that there is likely no dramatic difference between those who chose to vote SVR vs. those who voted in person. Of course there might be regional effects that do not appear in this aggregate analysis but it seems like there’s a good chance that non-SVR geographical analyses are representative of all votes.

Comparisons

Regional vote share

If we look at the riding by vote share, we see that West-Vancouver is the largest bloc, with almost 30% of the 2021 vote (18,000 votes). Squamish at 17.2% brings in 10,853. We see that the Liberals actually didn’t “win” many of the regions—they just got second place in most places but altogether that was enough votes to win.

In 2019, we see essentially the same regional vote share breakdown but the “regional winner” is quite different from 2021. The raw number of votes for both 2019 and 2021 and percent change in votes has been included in a table below however, these numbers are qualified by the pandemic and how that may have affected SVR vs. non-SVR voting. For context, 2019 had 64,648 votes in total with 3,896 SVR and 60,752 non SVR votes (94% of the total votes). 2021 votes had a significant increase in SVR voting and any comparison between years must take that into account.

Pandemic Turnout & NDP Vote Share

The table below outlines the changes in vote amounts between years for each region. This helps us outline how the regional vote shares have changed between years and can give us insight into whether voters switched to the NDP, vote share simply increased but the proportion of NDP voters remained the same, and whether we mobilized an entirely different group of non-voters who supported the NDP in 2021. We can assume that had the proportion of SVR votes remained the same in 2021 as they were in 2019, that it would be additive; each region would have more votes represented regionally and the change in vote share would be greater than is represented below. Thus, for proportions where the change is relatively lower, say less than +/- 5%, we can assume that the vote share hasn’t significantly changed and in those regions an NDP increase corresponds to people switching their votes. On the other hand, if there’s a dramatic change, say above +/- 20% we can assume that there is something beyond SVR votes influencing this change (could be campaigns but could also be other pandemic related factors). Note that many of the regions have a smaller number of votes so the statistical signifance of shifts is a lot less meaningful.

Potential interesting features:

  • West Vancouver: The turn out increased slightly and the NDP vote increased quite dramatically, signalling that many WV voters switched their vote

  • Sechelt: Possible that a new group of voters were mobilized as the turnout has jumped quite significantly in 2021 as compared to 2019

  • Bowen Island: Seems like there was a genuine and dramatic increase in NDP votes from people switching their votes

  • Whistler & Gibsons: Potentially a lot fewer people voted this year but NDP support still increased. This could signal areas for further campaigning, especially Gibsons. I.e. if we got more people out to vote, they would vote in higher proportion for the NDP

location 2019 NDP Vote 2019 Turnout 2021 NDP Vote 2021 Turnout % Change NDP votes % Turnout Change
West Vancouver 924 17291 1828 18165 49.5% 5.1%
Squamish 2030 11867 3516 10853 42.3% -8.5%
Sechelt 952 4368 2161 6121 55.9% 40.1%
Whistler 732 6350 1243 5161 41.1% -18.7%
Gibsons 1316 5902 1895 4914 30.6% -16.7%
Bowen Island 299 2280 711 2178 57.9% -4.5%
Roberts Creek 418 1725 807 1657 48.2% -3.9%
Pemberton 250 1665 411 1430 39.2% -14.1%
Mount Currie 154 330 325 957 52.6% 190.0%
Halfmoon Bay 127 735 315 813 59.7% 10.6%
Lions Bay 90 1686 111 598 18.9% -64.5%
Capilano 5 330 969 233 591 -41.6% -39.0%
Irvines Landing 116 687 86 309 -34.9% -55.0%
Langdale 83 278 94 248 11.7% -10.8%
Tuwanek 76 396 62 163 -22.6% -58.8%
D’Arcy 48 238 47 158 -2.1% -33.6%
Egmont 24 113 54 131 55.6% 15.9%
Donnely Landing 85 373 44 119 -93.2% -68.1%
Granthams Landing 34 138 40 107 15.0% -22.5%

By Each Region

West Vancouver

Here, it seems like the decrease in green votes went both to the Cons and the NDP.

Squamish

Whistler

Gibsons

Sechelt

Roberts Creek

Bowen Island

Pemberton

Mount Currie

Lions Bay

Capilano 5