---
title: "ANLY 512 Lab 2"
author: "Nischal Bondalapati"
output: 
  flexdashboard::flex_dashboard:
    storyboard: true
    social: menu
    source: embed
---

### Introduction

**Scenario**

How real is Climate Change?

In order to answer this question, I want to look at the following historical trends:

1. Annual Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels
2. Annual Global Temperature Trends
3. Annual National Average Temperatures in the US
4. Annual Residential Energy Trends in the US
5. Annual Lower Tropospheric Global Temperature Anomalies
6. Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

```{r setup, include=FALSE}
library(flexdashboard)
library(maps)
library(ggmap)
library(dplyr)
library(ggplot2)
library(maptools)
library(reshape2)
library(lubridate)
library(scales)
```

### Annual Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels

```{r co2}
co<-read.csv("co2-mm-mlo_csv.csv")
co_sub<-subset(co[,2:3],co$Decimal.Date>1899)
plot(co_sub, type="o", main = "Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels 1900-2021", xlab = "Year", ylab="Total carbon emissions (MM Tons)")
```

***

The global carbon emissions increased by 25% over the last century and seem to be on an upward trend unless serious actions are taken to limit them.

### Annual Global Temperature Trends

```{r temperature}
tp<-read.csv("monthly_csv.csv")
names(tp)[names(tp) == "Date"] <- "Year"
tp$Year<-year(tp$Year)
tp_sub<-subset(tp[2:3],tp$Source=="GCAG"&tp$Year>1899&tp$Year<2022)
p<-ggplot()+
  geom_line(data=tp_sub,aes(x = Year, y = Mean),color = "blue")+
  xlab("Year")+
  ylab("Annual Global Temperature Change in Degrees Celsius")+
  ggtitle("Annual Global Temperature Change Time Series 1900-2021")
p
```

***

The Global Temperatures on an average have increased by 1 degree Celsius over the last century. Although, this looks like a small change, this is an average number and there can be regions where the temperature is already on the higher end, where the new changes can be much more than the average, causing enormous damage to flora, fauna, and in some cases to human habitat as well.

### Annual National Average Temperatures in the US

```{r}
avgTemp = read.csv(url("https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/time-series/110-tavg-1-6-1900-2021.csv?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1900&endbaseyear=2021"), skip=4) 

avgTemp$Date = substr(avgTemp$Date, 0, 4) 
avgTemp$Date = as.numeric(avgTemp$Date) 

ggplot( avgTemp, aes( x = Date, y = Value, group = 1)) +
geom_line(color = "#09557f") +
geom_smooth(method='lm', se=FALSE, color='black') +
labs(title="Annual National Average Temperatures in the US", x="Year", y="Temperature (F)")
```

***

We can notice that the Annual National Average Temperatures in the US between 1900 to 2021 have been steadily increasing over time (almost by 2 degrees Farnheit, which is ~1 degree celsius, the World's Increase in Average Annual Temperature over the last century).

### Annual Residential Energy Trends in the US

```{r}
REDTI_data = read.csv(url("https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/societal-impacts/redti/USA/jun/1-month/data.csv"),skip=1)


ggplot(REDTI_data,aes(x=Date,y=REDTI)) +
  geom_area(color = "black" ,fill = "gray")+ 
  scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0, 100))+
  geom_smooth(method='lm',se=FALSE)+
  labs(title="Annual Residential Energy Trends in the US",x="Year",y="Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index [REDTI]")
```

***

The Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI) is based on population weighted heating and cooling degree days, and as such, is a valuable tool for explaining year-to-year fluctuations in energy demand for residential heating and cooling.

This chart shows the REDTI between 1900 to 2020. From the graph we can see that the residential energy demand is gradually increasing over this period. REDTI index has increased almost 12 points in last 100 years. This trend also correlates with that of the Annual National Average Temperatures in the US.

### Annual Lower Tropospheric Global Temperature Anomalies

```{r}
LTGP_data <- read.csv(url("https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/msu/global/lt/dec/ytd/data.csv"),skip=1)

LTGP_data_melted <- reshape2::melt(LTGP_data, id.var='Date')

ggplot(LTGP_data_melted, aes(x=Date, y=value, col=variable)) +
geom_line() +
labs(title="Annual Lower Tropospheric Global Temperature Anomalies", 
      x = "Year",
      y = "Anomalies", 
      color=NULL)
```

***

Lower Tropospheric Global Temperature is the most common index to measure the earth's global warming. The graph shows the Annual Lower Tropospheric Global Temperature Anomalies between 1979 to 2021. The overall trend of the Annual Lower Tropospheric Global Temperature Anomalies has been increasing significantly from the past two decades.

### Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

```{r}
NHSI_data <- read.csv(url("https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/sea-ice/N/8.csv"),skip=3)

ggplot(NHSI_data,aes(x=Date,y=Value))+
  geom_point(color = "brown")+
  geom_smooth(method = 'lm', color = "tomato")+
  labs(title="Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent (1979-2021)",x="Year",y="million square km")
```

***

This graph shows the Sea Ice content of Northern Hemisphere. This graph shows the data between 1979 and 2021. We can see from the graph that Sea Ice is slowly decreasing over the time.

### Observations and Conclusion

**Observations**

Every single trend observed has not been positive towards Earth and Climate:

1. The Annual Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels have been steadily increasing. They have increased by 25% over the last century and seem to be on an upward trend unless serious actions are taken to limit them.
2. The Annual Global Temperatures on an average have increased by 1 degree celsius over the last century. Although, this looks like a small change, this is an average number and there can be regions where the temperature is already on the higher end, where the new changes can be much more than the average, causing enormous damage to flora, fauna, and in some cases to human habitat as well.
3. The Annual National Average Temperatures in the US between 1900 to 2021 have been steadily increasing over time (almost by 2 degrees Farnheit, which is an increase of ~1 degree Celsius, the World's Increase in Average Annual Temperature over the last century).
4. The Annual Residential Energy Demand in the US has been gradually increasing over the last century, very much in correlation to the Annual National Average Temperature Trends.
5. The overall trend of the Annual Lower Tropospheric Global Temperature Anomalies has been increasing significantly from the past two decades. This negative phenomenon is going to accelerate the Global Warming.
6. The Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent has reduced by almost 40% in the last four decades.

**Conclusion**

Thus by looking at all the above trends, it's very much evident and telltale that Climate Change and Global Warming are real. Although it's hard to completely make the negative trends go away in a short amount of time, it's crucial to control them in a short amount of time to avoid further damage to the environment, which in turn impacts the flora, fauna, and the mankind alike.