1 Changes from previous version

  • Replaced existing data on digital ID coverage with new data from Robert
  • Added data on whether a digital ID cross check was performed using data from Robert
  • Added several regression specifications

2 Table 2 - Coverage regressions

The dependent variable is the share of the population in a household that received a COVID-19 cash transfer.

Dependent variable:
coverage
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
rGDPg2020 -0.020*** -0.011** -0.010* -0.006 -0.010* -0.008 -0.005
(0.006) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.006)
dig_id 0.002**
(0.001)
dig_reg 0.377*** 0.357*** 0.260***
(0.062) (0.055) (0.076)
eap 0.285*** 0.240*** 0.305*** 0.252***
(0.090) (0.091) (0.083) (0.089)
log_gdp 0.096** 0.081*
(0.039) (0.043)
dig_xcheck 0.375*** 0.380*** 0.282***
(0.063) (0.053) (0.084)
Constant 0.077 0.097*** 0.065** -0.687** 0.123*** 0.083*** -0.550*
(0.071) (0.031) (0.025) (0.286) (0.030) (0.025) (0.318)
Observations 82 83 83 82 82 82 81
R2 0.224 0.470 0.577 0.618 0.468 0.590 0.615
Adjusted R2 0.204 0.457 0.561 0.599 0.455 0.575 0.594
Residual Std. Error 0.275 (df = 79) 0.233 (df = 80) 0.209 (df = 79) 0.200 (df = 77) 0.228 (df = 79) 0.201 (df = 78) 0.197 (df = 76)
F Statistic 11.406*** (df = 2; 79) 35.530*** (df = 2; 80) 35.990*** (df = 3; 79) 31.206*** (df = 4; 77) 34.769*** (df = 2; 79) 37.489*** (df = 3; 78) 30.305*** (df = 4; 76)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

3 Table 3 - Average benefit regressions

The dependent variable is the average benefit size divided by GDP (calculated by dividing spending as a share of GDP divided by coverage).

Dependent variable:
avg_ben
(1) (2) (3) (4)
coverage -0.012 -0.014
(0.008) (0.010)
rGDPg2020 -0.0001 -0.0003
(0.001) (0.001)
log_gdp -0.006** -0.007**
(0.003) (0.003)
Constant 0.027*** 0.027*** 0.076*** 0.083***
(0.005) (0.005) (0.026) (0.029)
Observations 61 60 61 60
R2 0.041 0.044 0.089 0.095
Adjusted R2 0.024 0.010 0.073 0.063
Residual Std. Error 0.018 (df = 59) 0.019 (df = 57) 0.018 (df = 59) 0.018 (df = 57)
F Statistic 2.493 (df = 1; 59) 1.301 (df = 2; 57) 5.755** (df = 1; 59) 2.977* (df = 2; 57)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

4 Table 4 - Spending regressions

The dependent variable is spending as a share of GDP.

Dependent variable:
spending
(1) (2) (3) (4)
dig_id -0.00002
(0.00004)
dig_reg -0.002 -0.002
(0.003) (0.003)
log_gdp 0.004*** 0.004** 0.004**
(0.001) (0.002) (0.002)
non_ct_spending 0.088 0.093 0.093
(0.073) (0.076) (0.079)
rGDPg2020 -0.0003** 0.00000
(0.0002) (0.0002)
Constant -0.024*** 0.006*** -0.027** -0.027**
(0.007) (0.001) (0.012) (0.013)
Observations 60 60 60 60
R2 0.200 0.046 0.199 0.199
Adjusted R2 0.157 0.029 0.156 0.141
Residual Std. Error 0.008 (df = 56) 0.008 (df = 58) 0.008 (df = 56) 0.008 (df = 55)
F Statistic 4.668*** (df = 3; 56) 2.789 (df = 1; 58) 4.634*** (df = 3; 56) 3.414** (df = 4; 55)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01