Factores determinantes de tener una calificación financiera perfecta

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# Factores determinantes de tener una calificación financiera perfecta
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## **Modelo Logístico de regresión**
### Juan Carlos Hernandez Bernal, Miguel Angel Herrera Arevalo, Diego Alejandro Jaramillo Guzmán
### 25/09/2021

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name: hola
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#  Estimación de modelo logit

## Probabilidad de tener una calificación financiera perfecta

[Correo Juan Carlos](jchernandezber@ut.edu.co)<br/>
[Correo Diego Alejandro](dajaramillog@ut.edu.co)<br/>
[Correo Miguel Angel](mangelherrera@ut.edu.co)

???
¡Hola! Esperemos que esto funcione.

---

name: listas
# Contenido

En el desarrollo de la presentación encontraremos:

* Supuesto económico.

* Antecedentes.

* Minería de datos y ejecución de codigo.

* Descripción de variablas relevantes

* Consideración de efectos

--
* Conclusiones

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.pull-left[
# Supuesto económico
]
.pull-right[
![](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Antonio-Afonso-3/publication/256069934/figure/tbl1/AS:669695690690584@1536679303921/S-P-Moodys-and-Fitch-rating-systems-and-linear-transformations_W640.jpg)]

----

.footnote[
Fuente: https://www.researchgate.net]

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.pull-left[
# Supuesto económico
- Particularmente en la base de datos se tienen variables socioeconómicas, cuantitativas y otras cualitativas, por lo cual el objetivo planteado será significativo estadísticamente hablando, a su vez será útil para verificar la causalidad que tienen factores independientes para explicar que una persona tenga una calificación  financiera positiva en las diferentes centrales de información.

![](https://i.giphy.com/media/UuZ2HkKJQftTVuHDV7/giphy.webp)
]

.pull-right[
# Antecedentes
- (Fernández, Perez, 2005)  nos desribe cómo el uso de un modelo eficiente puede marcar la diferencia dentro de alguna entidad financiera a la hora de otorgar créditos a sus respectivos clientes, en donde deben “evaluar la probabilidad de que el cliente devuelva el dinero, lo cual será un hecho positivo para la entidad, o bien que el cliente llegue a ser moroso, y esto será un hecho negativo para la entidad.”

![](https://i.giphy.com/media/s6OiiampNcye4/giphy.webp)
]

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# Ruta de trabajo

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.pull-left[

Se pretende construir un modelo que muestre de qué depende que una persona tenga “calificación perfecta” o no.

La cual se definió que ocurre cuando una persona tiene calificación interna y externa igual a “A".

]

.pull-right[

.left[
Para ello, se utilizan variables como: 
1. [Ingresos](#listas)

2. [Pasivos](#tablas-citas)

3. [Activos](#resaltando-lineas)

4. [Género, entre otras](#adios)
]

]

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.pull-left[
# Llamar la base de datos

`Se llama la base logit`
```
base1 = read.csv("C:/Users/juan1/Documents/modulo2/B.D/01 PlanoR.csv", header = T, sep= ";", stringsAsFactors =  T )
```
]

.pull-right[

]

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name: tablas-citas
# Tablas descriptivas

### Tabla

`Base financiera`

La base de datos financiera llamada `base1` posee información de riesgo financiera apta para evaluar un posible préstamo.

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    <tr>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">ID</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">INGRESOS</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">EGRESOS</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">ACTIVOS</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">PASIVOS</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">APORTES.SOCIALES</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">SALDO_AHORRO_CONTRACTUAL</th>
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      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">ANTIGUEDAD_ENTIDAD</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">DEPARTAMENTO</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">PERSONAS_CARGO</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">GENERO</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">PROPIEDAD_VIVIENDA</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">SALDO_INTERNO</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">MORA_MAX_12M</th>
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      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">CALIFICACION_EXTERNA</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">SCORE_EXTERNO</th>
      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">ENDEUDAMIENTO_TOTAL</th>
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<td class="gt_row gt_right">7126566</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4700000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">117676500</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">118656000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1480668</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">EMPLEADO_PUBLICO</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">TOLIMA</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">MASCULINO</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">PROPIA</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">3931308</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">A</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">A</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">787</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">86577305</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">PERSONAL</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center"> -   </td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td></tr>
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<td class="gt_row gt_right">2242820</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2409000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">58838250</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">43646000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">10127389</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">7112235</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">EMPLEADO_PUBLICO</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">12</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">TOLIMA</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">FEMENINO</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">PROPIA</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1771318</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">A</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">A</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">916</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">45058517</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">PERSONAL</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center"> -   </td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td></tr>
    <tr><td class="gt_row gt_right">903998</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1747013</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">490000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">110772812</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4067254</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">3676132</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">EMPLEADO_PUBLICO</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">18</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">TOLIMA</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">MASCULINO</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">PROPIA</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1126510</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">20</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">A</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">A</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">889</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">7722309</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">PERSONAL</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center"> -   </td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td></tr>
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<td class="gt_row gt_right">3171401</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2805000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">138697445</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">17377000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">7221654</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">6110352</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">MICROEMPRESARIO</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">18</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">TOLIMA</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">3</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">FEMENINO</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">PROPIA</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">6474374</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">A</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">A</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">928</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">17623337</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">PERSONAL</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center"> -   </td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td></tr>
    <tr><td class="gt_row gt_right">779498</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4968563</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">3721000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">8047169</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">14390000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">692164</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">3675111</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">MICROEMPRESARIO</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">18</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">TOLIMA</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">MASCULINO</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">PROPIA</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2918888</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">A</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">A</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">953</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">19494131</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center">PERSONAL</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_center"> -   </td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td></tr>
  </tbody>
  
  
</table>
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---
name: tablas-citas
# Tablas descriptivas

### Tabla

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      <th class="gt_col_heading gt_columns_bottom_border gt_right" rowspan="1" colspan="1">n</th>
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    <tr><td class="gt_row gt_right">1</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1998</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">3.210671e+07</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">5.370694e+07</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">12257761</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2.035310e+07</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.744243e+07</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">780658000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">780658000</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4.3101941</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">33.3869233</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.201525e+06</td></tr>
    <tr><td class="gt_row gt_right">2</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1998</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4.227315e+06</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">3.204681e+06</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4077278</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4.106953e+06</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4.335023e+06</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">9983810</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">9983810</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0.1480500</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">-1.2857553</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">7.169471e+04</td></tr>
    <tr><td class="gt_row gt_right">3</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1998</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2.992333e+06</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4.936963e+06</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2129050</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2.300409e+06</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.375524e+06</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">420184</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">162950964</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">162530780</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">18.7503310</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">558.1157272</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.104491e+05</td></tr>
    <tr><td class="gt_row gt_right">4</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1998</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">3.467467e+00</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.041306e+00</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">3.560625e+00</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.482600e+00</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">5</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">-0.8018075</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0.3772876</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2.329597e-02</td></tr>
    <tr><td class="gt_row gt_right">5</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1998</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.471471e+00</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">4.993104e-01</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.464375e+00</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0.000000e+00</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0.1142145</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">-1.9879493</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.117051e-02</td></tr>
    <tr><td class="gt_row gt_right">6</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1998</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.259448e+08</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.331952e+08</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">88649630</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1.026069e+08</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">9.591391e+07</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">0</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1049674380</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">1049674380</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2.3941595</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">8.3344628</td>
<td class="gt_row gt_right">2.979826e+06</td></tr>
  </tbody>
  
  
</table>
</div>

---
class: center
## Transformando las variables

- base1$PROPIEDAD_VIVIENDA = factor(base1$PROPIEDAD_VIVIENDA)

- base1$ACTIVIDAD_ECONOMICA = factor(base1$ACTIVIDAD_ECONOMICA)

- base1$GENERO = factor(base1$GENERO)

- base1$DEPARTAMENTO = factor(base1$DEPARTAMENTO)

---
# Transformando variables con ifelse

- base1$ACTIVIDAD_ECONOMICA1 = ifelse(base1$ACTIVIDAD_ECONOMICA != "EMPLEADO_PUBLICO"  & base1$ACTIVIDAD_ECONOMICA != "PENSIONADO", "OTRASACTIVIDADES", "PUBLICOYPENSIONADO")

- base1$NUEVACAL= ifelse(base1$CALIFICACION_INTERNA== "A" & base1$CALIFICACION_EXTERNA== "A",  "CALIFICACIÓN PERFECTA","CALIFICACIÓN NO PERFECTA")

* Se le asigna un valor de 1 si cumple la condición, y de 0 si no la cumple.

- base1$NUEVACAL= ifelse(base1$NUEVACAL== "CALIFICACIÓN PERFECTA",1,0)

--
* Se continúa generando condicionales para ajustar el modelo a una categoria binaria.

- base1$GENERO1 = ifelse(base1$GENERO == "FEMENINO", 0, 1)
---
class: center, middle
name: tablas-citas
# Estimación del modelo

```
##                           (Intercept)                              INGRESOS 
##                  "-1.689362119551547"                  "-0.000000035806551" 
##                               PASIVOS                               ACTIVOS 
##                  "-0.000000004971434"                  " 0.000000003209351" 
##              SALDO_AHORRO_CONTRACTUAL   ACTIVIDAD_ECONOMICAEMPLEADO_PUBLICO 
##                  " 0.000000525794112"                  "-0.071380125993904" 
##    ACTIVIDAD_ECONOMICAMICROEMPRESARIO         ACTIVIDAD_ECONOMICAPENSIONADO 
##                  "-0.204785628688441"                  " 0.853813960905172" 
## ACTIVIDAD_ECONOMICAPROFESION LIBERAL                     ANTIGUEDAD_ENTIDAD 
##                  " 0.007995212705432"                  " 0.021556349362360" 
##                               GENERO1                        PERSONAS_CARGO 
##                  " 0.073284162785042"                  " 0.903184420477470"
```

---
class: middle, center

## **Considerando efectos**

.left[El hecho de tener mayores pasivos...] .right[...disminuye la probabilidad de tener calificación perfecta.]

.left[El hecho de tener mayo Ahorro contractual...] .right[...aumenta la probabilidad de tener calificación perfecta.]

.left[El hecho de tener vivienda propia...] .right[...disminuye la probabilidad de tener calificación perfecta.]

.left[El hecho de tener la actividad economica publico o pensionado...] .right[...aumenta la probabilidad de tener puntaje perfecto.]

.left[El hecho de tener más años de antiguedad en la entidad...] .right[...aumenta la probabilidad de tener puntaje perfecto.]

.left[El hecho de tener más personas a cargo...] .right[aumenta la probabilidad de tener puntaje perfecto.]

---
class: middle

## Conclusiones

--
- "La calificación perfecta" o "NUEVACAL" tiene ligada una causalidad directa con los ingresos de las personas, sus deudas, bienes y activos , ahorros, actividad económica,
personas a cargo y el genero. 
--

- Se concluye que tener mayores pasivos, disminuye la probabilidad de tener calificación perfecta.

- En el presente informe se obtuvo, que en efecto la información contenida en la base de datos no solamente brinda información de las condiciones socioeconómicas
sino también condiciones demográficas y geográficas de cada una de las personas analizadas.

-----
.footnote[
Mas detalles en: https://rpubs.com/jchernandezbernal/810838
]

---
name: adios
class: middle, inverse

.pull-left[
# **¡Gracias por su atención!**
]

.pull-right[
.right[
<img style="border-radius: 50%;"
src="http://medios.ut.edu.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/logout2021.png"
width="160px" />

[Correo Juan Carlos](jchernandezber@ut.edu.co)<br/>
[Correo Diego Alejandro](dajaramillog@ut.edu.co)<br/>
[Correo Miguel Angel](mangelherrera@ut.edu.co)
]
]