Scenarios

Historical Assessments

  • Steepness: 0.7, 0.8, 0.9
  • Natural Mortality: Reference and Alternative
  • Sigma R: 0.2, 0.4 and 0,6

Projections

  • Status Quo
  • Regime shift: change M & growth for 2020 onwards
  • Regime shift: change in Virgin Biomass (\(B_0\)) or \(R_0\) from 2020 onwards

These are then run these with and without a shock, i.e. increase M in 2020 for 1 season.

Management, i.e. catchs

  • As advised 65K tonnes
  • As realised 86K tonnes

Figure 1 Natural Mortality assessment hypotheses.

Figure 2 Bigeye time series of \(SSB\) relative to \(B_{MSY}\).

Figure 3 Bigeye time series of \(F\) relative to \(F_{MSY}\).

Figure 4 Kobe phase plot showing current status in 2018 relative to \(MSY\) benchmarks.

Stock recruitment relationships

Recruitent is by year, unit & season, just provide the estimated recruitments,Perform a projection for a TAC for 65K tons

Figure 5 Stock and recruitment relationships.

Status Quo with a TAC of 65K tonnes

Figure 6 Base Case projections for 65K tonnes

Figure 7 Projections for all scenarios with a catch of 65K tonnes.

Status Quo with a TAC of 85K tonnes

Figure 8 Base Case projections for 85K tonnes

Figure 9 Projections for all scenarios with a catch of 65K tonnes.

Status Quo with catch of 65K tonnes and shock.

Figure 10 Base Case projections for Status Quo with shock for catch of 65K tonnes

Figure 11 Projections for Status Quo with shock for catch of 65K tonnes

Status Quo with catch of 85K tonnes and shock.

Figure 12 Base Case projections for Status Quo with shock for catch of 85K tonnes

Figure 13 Projections for Status Quo with shock for catch of 85K tonnes

Regime Shift in growth and M with catch of 65K tonnes

Figure 14 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in growth and M for catch of 65K tonnes

Figure 15 Projections for Regime Shift in growth and M for catch of 65K tonnes

Regime Shift in growth and M with catch of 85K tonnes

Figure 16 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in growth and M for catch of 85K tonnes

Figure 17 Projections for Regime Shift in growth and M for catch of 85K tonnes

Regime Shift in growth and M with catch of 65K tonnes with shock

Figure 18 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in growth and M with shock for catch of 65K tonnes

Figure 19 Projections for Regime Shift in growth and M with shock for catch of 65K tonnes

Regime Shift in growth and M with catch of 85K tonnes with shock

Figure 20 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in growth and M with shock for catch of 65K tonnes

Figure 21 Projections for Regime Shift in growth and M with shock for catch of 65K tonnes

Regime Shift in \(B_0\) and catch of 65K tonnes

Figure 22 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) for catch of 65K tonnes

Figure 23 Projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) for catch of 65K tonnes

Regime Shift in \(B_0\) and catch of 85K tonnes

Figure 24 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) for catch of 85K tonnes

{r}pAll( bet.M.shift) pAll( bet.v.shift)

Figure 25 Projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) for catch of 85K tonnes

Regime Shift in \(R_0\), catch of 65K tonnes with shock

Figure 26 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) with shock for catch of 65K tonnes

Figure 27 Projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) with shock for catch of 65K tonnes

Regime Shift in \(R_0\), catch of 85K tonnes with shock

Figure 28 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) with shock for catch of 85K tonnes

Figure 29 Projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) with shock for catch of 85K tonnes