Scenarios

Historical Assessments

  • Steepness: 0.8, 0.9
  • Fleets: Annual, Seasonal

Projections

  • Status Quo
  • Regime shift: change M & growth for 2020 onwards
  • Regime shift: change in Virgin Biomass (\(B_0\)) or \(R_0\) from 2020 onwards

These are then run these with and without a shock, i.e. increase M in 2020 for 1 season.

Management, i.e. catchs

  • As advised 110K tonnes
  • As realised 130K tonnes

Get the SS3 outputs for all scenarios and create OMs.

Figure 1 Yellowfin time series of \(SSB\) relative to \(B_{MSY}\).

Figure 2 Yellowfin time series of \(F\) relative to \(F_{MSY}\).

Figure 3 Kobe phase plot showing current status in 2018 relative to \(MSY\) benchmarks.

Recruitment is by year, unit & season, just provide the estimated recruitments

Perform a projection for a TAC for 110K tons

Figure 4 Stock and recruitment relationships.

Status Quo with a TAC of 110K tonnes

Figure 5 Base Case projections for 110K tonnes

Figure 6 Projections for all scenarios with a catch of 110K tonnes.

Status Quo with a TAC of 135K tonnes

Figure 7 Base Case projections for 135K tonnes

Figure 8 Projections for all scenarios with a catch of 110K tonnes.

Status Quo with catch of 110K tonnes and shock.

Figure 9 Base Case projections for Status Quo with shock for catch of 110K tonnes

Figure 10 Projections for Status Quo with shock for catch of 110K tonnes

Status Quo with catch of 135K tonnes and shock.

Figure 11 Base Case projections for Status Quo with shock for catch of 135K tonnes

Figure 12 Projections for Status Quo with shock for catch of 135K tonnes

Regime Shift in growth and M with catch of 110K tonnes

Figure 13 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in growth and M for catch of 110K tonnes

Figure 14 Projections for Regime Shift in growth and M for catch of 110K tonnes

Regime Shift in growth and M with catch of 135K tonnes

Figure 15 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in growth and M for catch of 135K tonnes

Figure 16 Projections for Regime Shift in growth and M for catch of 135K tonnes

Regime Shift in growth and M with catch of 110K tonnes with shock

Figure 17 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in growth and M with shock for catch of 110K tonnes

Figure 18 Projections for Regime Shift in growth and M with shock for catch of 110K tonnes

Regime Shift in growth and M with catch of 135K tonnes with shock

Figure 19 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in growth and M with shock for catch of 110K tonnes

Figure 20 Projections for Regime Shift in growth and M with shock for catch of 110K tonnes

Regime Shift in \(B_0\) and catch of 110K tonnes

Figure 21 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) for catch of 110K tonnes

Figure 22 Projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) for catch of 110K tonnes

Regime Shift in \(B_0\) and catch of 135K tonnes

Figure 23 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) for catch of 135K tonnes

Figure 24 Projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) for catch of 135K tonnes

Regime Shift in \(R_0\), catch of 110K tonnes with shock

Figure 25 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) with shock for catch of 110K tonnes

Figure 26 Projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) with shock for catch of 110K tonnes

Regime Shift in \(R_0\), catch of 135K tonnes with shock

Figure 27 Base Case projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) with shock for catch of 135K tonnes

Figure 28 Projections for Regime Shift in \(R_0\) with shock for catch of 135K tonnes

Scenarios