1 Changes from previous version

  • Dropped the pre-coverage variable from the coverage regressions
  • Look at correlation between average benefit (spending / coverage) and coverage
  • Look at correlation between average benefit (spending / coverage) and coverage and gdp per capita

2 Coverage regressions

Dependent variable:
coverage
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
rGDPg2020 -0.023*** -0.019*** -0.011** -0.010*
(0.006) (0.006) (0.005) (0.005)
log_deaths 0.032 0.030 0.003 0.031
(0.020) (0.020) (0.019) (0.021)
dig_id 0.334*** 0.343***
(0.080) (0.095)
dig_reg 0.377*** 0.413*** 0.357*** 0.245***
(0.062) (0.063) (0.055) (0.072)
eap 0.285*** 0.313***
(0.090) (0.102)
log_gdp 0.091**
(0.042)
regionECA -0.206***
(0.078)
regionLAC 0.017
(0.084)
regionMENA -0.135
(0.092)
regionSAR 0.031
(0.105)
regionSSA
Constant 0.240*** 0.207** 0.033 -0.016 0.097*** 0.108 0.065** -0.726**
(0.033) (0.088) (0.052) (0.068) (0.031) (0.066) (0.025) (0.300)
Observations 83 89 83 83 83 83 83 82
R2 0.151 0.039 0.283 0.220 0.470 0.439 0.577 0.648
Adjusted R2 0.140 0.028 0.265 0.200 0.457 0.425 0.561 0.609
Residual Std. Error 0.293 (df = 81) 0.317 (df = 87) 0.271 (df = 80) 0.283 (df = 80) 0.233 (df = 80) 0.240 (df = 80) 0.209 (df = 79) 0.198 (df = 73)
F Statistic 14.375*** (df = 1; 81) 3.569* (df = 1; 87) 15.789*** (df = 2; 80) 11.254*** (df = 2; 80) 35.530*** (df = 2; 80) 31.311*** (df = 2; 80) 35.990*** (df = 3; 79) 16.789*** (df = 8; 73)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

3 Spending regressions

Dependent variable:
spending
(1) (2) (3) (4)
pre_spending 0.003*** 0.002*** 0.003** 0.002
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
expansion 0.020*** 0.021***
(0.005) (0.005)
non_ct_spending 0.038 0.073
(0.067) (0.058)
Constant 0.005*** 0.001 0.004** 0.0002
(0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001)
Observations 61 60 61 60
R2 0.156 0.405 0.162 0.428
Adjusted R2 0.142 0.384 0.133 0.398
Residual Std. Error 0.008 (df = 59) 0.007 (df = 57) 0.008 (df = 58) 0.007 (df = 56)
F Statistic 10.896*** (df = 1; 59) 19.426*** (df = 2; 57) 5.618*** (df = 2; 58) 13.988*** (df = 3; 56)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

4 Average benefit

Dependent variable:
avg_ben
(1) (2)
log_gdp -0.006** -0.006*
(0.003) (0.003)
coverage -0.002
(0.008)
Constant 0.076*** 0.073**
(0.026) (0.028)
Observations 61 61
R2 0.089 0.090
Adjusted R2 0.073 0.058
Residual Std. Error 0.018 (df = 59) 0.018 (df = 58)
F Statistic 5.755** (df = 1; 59) 2.860* (df = 2; 58)
Note: p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01