The Biden plan for free community college represents a huge change in how the federal government funds higher education. For the first time, the federal government will directly fund states to cover the full cost of tuition for students, using a large scale federal-state matching plan that is similar in some ways to how the federal government funds other priorities like health care or transportation.

Over the last few days I’ve been trying to answer the following questions:

Which institutions in each state will be eligible? How much will the plan provide? How much will states have to pay? What will be the effective subsidy among all college students by state? Which states will see increases or decreases in per-student funding levels under the provision of the plan? Which states will gain or lose revenues based on participating in the plan.

Below are my current provisional answers to those questions.

The basic concept of the plan is this. The federal government will provide a subsidy to each state equal to eighty percent of
(a sort of) average of nationwide community college tuition times the number of full time equivalent students enrolled in community colleges. States in return must reduce tuition to 0 for all students enrolled in community colleges for their first sixty credits (two years, assuming 15 credits/semester) and must commit to providing a matching set of funds, topping out at 20 percent after a few years.

In this writeup I describe the implications for states of the Biden free community college plan. Which states will receive more funding, which states will receive less, and why?

Defining Community Colleges

The first question is: which institutions (and then students) are eligible?

As Kevin Carey and others have noted, there’s no singular definition of a community college across the states. In fact, there are states do not have any institutions named “community colleges” Here’s how the plan defines community colleges:

“(2) COMMUNITY COLLEGE.—The term ‘community college’ means— a degree-granting public institution of higher education at which— the highest degree awarded is an associate degree; or an associate degree is the predominant degree awarded;”

Using data from the federal government’s IPEDS database of colleges and universities, I used this definition to create a list of all institutions in every state that would qualify as community colleges.

There are about 45 institutions eligible for the plan, using these criteria. The list is available in excel format

In most states institutions award either associates or bachelors degrees. In a few states there are a number of institutions that are fairly close to this cutoff. For instance, Albany State and College of Coastal GA are eligible, but just barely.

Eligibile Institutions in Georgia

stabbr instnm control sector carnegie prop_assoc
GA Albany Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Atlanta Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Augusta Technical College 1 4 40 1.0000000
GA West Georgia Technical College 1 4 40 1.0000000
GA Columbus Technical College 1 4 40 1.0000000
GA Georgia Northwestern Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Southern Crescent Technical College 1 4 40 1.0000000
GA Gwinnett Technical College 1 4 40 1.0000000
GA Lanier Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Chattahoochee Technical College 1 4 40 1.0000000
GA North Georgia Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Savannah Technical College 1 4 40 1.0000000
GA South Georgia Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Wiregrass Georgia Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Georgia State University-Perimeter College 1 4 40 1.0000000
GA Georgia Piedmont Technical College 1 4 40 1.0000000
GA Athens Technical College 1 4 40 1.0000000
GA Ogeechee Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Southeastern Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Oconee Fall Line Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Central Georgia Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Coastal Pines Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Southern Regional Technical College 1 4 -2 1.0000000
GA Georgia Military College 1 1 -2 0.9913094
GA East Georgia State College 1 1 40 0.9834437
GA Georgia Highlands College 1 1 40 0.9092105
GA Atlanta Metropolitan State College 1 1 40 0.8413978
GA South Georgia State College 1 1 -2 0.8384401
GA Gordon State College 1 1 40 0.6605042
GA Abraham Baldwin Agricultural College 1 1 40 0.6574655
GA Albany State University 1 1 21 0.5127186
GA College of Coastal Georgia 1 1 40 0.5084746

The big question about eligibility moving forward will be whether institutions that are currently Bachelor’s degree granting begin awarding associates degrees in passing. For a substantial number of institutions this could tip the balance to becoming predominantly associates degree granting.

Median Community College Tuition Across the States

The per-student subsidy for the plan will be based on an overall average of tuition across the states, specifically:

“The median resident community college tuition and fees per student in all States, not weighted for enrollment, for the most recent award year for which data are available;”

name Average State Tuition and Fees
Vermont $10,973.00
Pennsylvania $10,043.44
Illinois $9,096.04
New Hampshire $7,064.00
Maryland $6,913.31
New Jersey $6,879.84
South Dakota $6,790.00
Michigan $6,562.57
New York $5,943.76
South Carolina $5,842.50
Minnesota $5,540.03
Iowa $5,458.81
Massachusetts $5,417.00
Ohio $5,369.93
Indiana $5,287.00
Missouri $5,072.57
Virginia $5,025.79
Oregon $5,015.18
Alabama $5,003.48
Delaware $4,945.00
North Dakota $4,878.60
Utah $4,811.75
Rhode Island $4,700.00
Montana $4,662.33
Oklahoma $4,653.36
West Virginia $4,546.55
Connecticut $4,519.33
Idaho $4,495.50
Wisconsin $4,441.81
Kentucky $4,383.00
Tennessee $4,382.23
Washington $4,357.47
Kansas $4,251.79
Texas $4,153.40
Wyoming $4,135.29
Colorado $4,127.93
Louisiana $4,112.57
Maine $3,765.43
Arkansas $3,523.55
Nebraska $3,438.57
Georgia $3,394.03
Mississippi $3,372.13
Nevada $3,262.50
Hawaii $3,227.86
Florida $2,850.25
North Carolina $2,657.20
New Mexico $2,321.32
Arizona $2,224.21
California $1,262.67

Given that this says all states I’m going to assume that they mean the median of all average state tuition and required fees. That is, I take the average unweighted tuition and fees in each state, then take the median of that measure for all states. It looks like that’s Oklahoma and West Virginia , with an average in state CC tuition and fees of 4653.3571429. Part of this depends on how Alaska is handled, but something around $4,600 seems most likely. This will of course depend on what happens to community college tuitions in the next couple of years.

How much will states get?

When fully phased in, states will receive 3722.6857143 per full time equivalent student in community colleges enrolled in the first six semesters of enrollment. (Question– is this JUST enrollment at the one community college or first sixe semesters overall?)

The total amount that states receive isn’t a super interesting question. Big states will get a lot, small states not so much. Right now the best way I can think of to normalize this measure is to compare it to ALL fte in the state. Another comparison would be to all 18-24 year olds in the state.

The subsidy per ALL college students will depend crucially on the distribution of FTE enrollment by state. States with a large proportion of students in eligible institutions will get more, states with more four year enrollment, less.

Total Federal Spending for ACP by Total (not CC) FTE Enrollment

Subsidies are just basically a function of community college enrollment. So, the big winners will be Wyoming, New Mexico and California. Vermont and New Hampshire, not so much. Some big states will get pretty low per-student subsidies, notably New York, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts.

A big second order effect would be the shift in enrollment to community colleges. In states like TN that implemented some version of free or reduced price community college for a set of students, there was a fairly substantial shift away from four-year institutions toward community colleges. This would of course change the overall subsidy pattern substantially.

What will this do to tuition+state+local approps if implemented?

Here’s the basic formula for this plan again:

  • States give up tuition revenue for community college students;
  • States get 80 percent of nationwide median tuition for each fte enrolled in community college,
  • States must increase spending by 20% of the total sum spent in state (when fully phased in).

So OLD total revenues consisted of state appropriations plus local appropriations plus tuition revenues.

NEW total revenues will consist of state appropriations plus local appropriations plus federal funding (3722.6857143 per student) plus state match (930.6714286) per student once fully funded). There’s a maintenance of effort provision so states are mandated not to decrease funding.

The following table shows current education and general revenues (state and local appropriations plus tuition) per full time equivalent community college student in each states, followed by the amount of revenues from the proposal– state and local appropriations plus federal funding plus state match.

State Current EG Revenues Proposed EG Revenues Difference
California 8443.618 12112.396 3668.778142
North Carolina 9280.876 12539.245 3258.369627
New Mexico 11255.452 14269.886 3014.433623
Mississippi 6648.517 9633.496 2984.978896
Florida 5723.009 8485.328 2762.319364
Maine 7696.810 10382.969 2686.158698
Arizona 9660.513 12270.612 2610.098566
Texas 9129.323 11715.441 2586.118493
Nebraska 13031.400 15524.385 2492.985693
Kentucky 6123.819 8616.194 2492.375172
Tennessee 6816.005 9165.692 2349.686967
Arkansas 9102.380 11417.960 2315.580633
Oklahoma 7429.844 9691.258 2261.413761
Indiana 7464.700 9687.172 2222.471982
Alabama 7589.064 9799.803 2210.739197
Missouri 8101.297 10171.527 2070.229969
Nevada 7797.424 9853.556 2056.132244
Georgia 7108.511 9115.768 2007.257014
Illinois 11793.600 13648.260 1854.659770
Kansas 11081.474 12881.358 1799.884035
Louisiana 5700.377 7450.399 1750.022286
Idaho 9759.951 11466.574 1706.622430
West Virginia 7053.776 8758.282 1704.506595
Wyoming 16318.717 18008.673 1689.955810
Wisconsin 19731.767 21289.281 1557.513503
Rhode Island 8545.287 9979.538 1434.251389
Iowa 10396.025 11653.820 1257.795549
Minnesota 9097.563 10344.183 1246.619842
Ohio 9032.056 10231.502 1199.445479
New York 11677.658 12866.569 1188.910629
Washington 8350.808 9538.149 1187.341001
Hawaii 12726.260 13887.783 1161.523011
Connecticut 12280.596 13422.141 1141.545633
South Carolina 7642.403 8711.366 1068.963215
Virginia 7788.156 8828.715 1040.558800
Michigan 12680.655 13386.754 706.098520
New Jersey 7658.899 8263.765 604.866071
North Dakota 10460.956 11019.133 558.176647
Oregon 14665.255 15200.942 535.687378
Montana 11670.833 12129.797 458.963683
Utah 9825.997 10157.125 331.128564
Maryland 14653.610 14858.476 204.865714
Massachusetts 11655.007 11705.055 50.048243
Pennsylvania 8854.895 8848.107 -6.787364
Colorado 7274.973 6758.516 -516.457147
Delaware 14001.131 12990.585 -1010.546413
South Dakota 8900.340 7548.745 -1351.595319
New Hampshire 12214.546 9809.798 -2404.748371
Vermont 12688.200 7768.315 -4919.885320

It looks like California community college students stand to gain $2,800 each, while Vermont students would see a decline in per student funding of about $5,800 unless the state steps in and makes up the difference. There are 14 states where the federal plus state match would be lower than current tuition revenues.

Here’s a plot showing old and new revenues by state:

Here’s a more detailed table with all of the components that go into this calculation.

name fteug tuition_revs state_approps local_approps fed_spend state_match new_total old_total
Alabama 59154 2442.618 5097.1301 49.316090 3722.686 930.6714 9799.803 7589.064
Arizona 107670 2043.259 459.3300 7157.924584 3722.686 930.6714 12270.612 9660.513
Arkansas 30838 2337.777 5828.2290 936.374214 3722.686 930.6714 11417.960 9102.380
California 914867 958.786 3663.9302 3820.901535 3722.686 930.6714 12138.189 8443.618
Colorado 57412 5169.814 355.7966 1749.361876 3722.686 930.6714 6758.516 7274.973
Connecticut 28394 3511.812 8768.7843 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 13422.141 12280.596
Delaware 8886 5663.904 8337.2279 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 12990.585 14001.131
Florida 317456 1891.038 3831.9711 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 8485.328 5723.009
Georgia 113254 2646.100 4455.9039 6.506896 3722.686 930.6714 9115.768 7108.511
Hawaii 14819 3491.834 9234.4258 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 13887.783 12726.260
Idaho 14833 2946.735 4694.2801 2118.936560 3722.686 930.6714 11466.574 9759.951
Illinois 192124 2798.697 3373.6146 5621.288220 3722.686 930.6714 13648.260 11793.600
Indiana 63898 2430.885 5033.8146 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 9687.172 7464.700
Iowa 57303 3395.562 4322.7315 2677.731375 3722.686 930.6714 11653.820 10396.025
Kansas 51502 2853.473 3090.5343 5137.466390 3722.686 930.6714 12881.358 11081.474
Kentucky 44373 2160.982 3962.8372 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 8616.194 6123.819
Louisiana 43102 2903.335 2797.0423 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 7450.399 5700.377
Maine 9771 1967.198 5729.6114 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 10382.969 7696.810
Maryland 70820 4448.491 4343.4829 5861.635739 3722.686 930.6714 14858.476 14653.610
Massachusetts 52538 4603.309 7051.6983 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 11705.055 11655.007
Michigan 113455 3947.259 3680.7574 5052.639284 3722.686 930.6714 13386.754 12680.655
Minnesota 75223 3406.737 5690.8259 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 10344.183 9097.563
Mississippi 60910 1668.378 3765.2830 1214.855442 3722.686 930.6714 9633.496 6648.517
Missouri 57276 2583.127 2672.7122 2845.457609 3722.686 930.6714 10171.527 8101.297
Montana 4504 3696.410 5617.9869 2356.436501 3722.686 930.6714 12627.781 11670.833
Nebraska 25842 2160.371 3936.7954 6934.232683 3722.686 930.6714 15524.385 13031.400
Nevada 31134 2597.225 5200.1991 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 9853.556 7797.424
New Hampshire 9013 7058.106 5156.4407 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 9809.798 12214.546
New Jersey 99904 4048.491 1469.3545 2141.053091 3722.686 930.6714 8263.765 7658.899
New Mexico 38010 1638.924 5155.3633 4461.165114 3722.686 930.6714 14269.886 11255.452
New York 219478 3464.447 4180.4131 4032.798285 3722.686 930.6714 12866.569 11677.658
North Carolina 161004 1394.988 6331.8883 1553.999795 3722.686 930.6714 12539.245 9280.876
North Dakota 7219 4095.180 6365.7756 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 11019.133 10460.956
Ohio 133511 3370.263 4139.6968 1522.096524 3722.686 930.6714 10315.151 9032.056
Oklahoma 39828 2391.943 3465.5836 1572.317365 3722.686 930.6714 9691.258 7429.844
Oregon 57883 4117.670 6034.5134 4513.071472 3722.686 930.6714 15200.942 14665.255
Pennsylvania 84924 4365.241 3092.4890 1397.164335 3722.686 930.6714 9143.010 8854.895
Rhode Island 9333 3219.106 5326.1810 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 9979.538 8545.287
South Carolina 57574 3584.394 2747.6880 1310.321117 3722.686 930.6714 8711.366 7642.403
South Dakota 5911 6004.952 2895.3879 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 7548.745 8900.340
Tennessee 56894 2303.670 4512.3351 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 9165.692 6816.005
Texas 476713 2066.516 2749.3370 4313.469312 3722.686 930.6714 11716.163 9129.323
Utah 45446 4322.229 5503.7683 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 10157.125 9825.997
Vermont 3947 9573.242 3114.9577 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 7768.315 12688.200
Virginia 100140 3612.798 4148.1753 27.182375 3722.686 930.6714 8828.715 7788.156
Washington 144837 3466.016 4884.7915 0.000000 3722.686 930.6714 9538.149 8350.808
West Virginia 13864 2577.629 4416.0752 60.071264 3722.686 930.6714 9129.504 7053.776
Wisconsin 56907 3095.844 8782.8815 7853.041928 3722.686 930.6714 21289.281 19731.767
Wyoming 11701 2963.401 9266.1846 4089.131442 3722.686 930.6714 18008.673 16318.717

And here’s the likely distribution of revenues across the major sources by state:

From the state perspective, one way to look at this is just the simple tradeoff between new revenues from the feds minus lost revenues from tuition plus extra revenues from the state. If this is positive,then the state will be getting more from the feds in the subsidy than it will be losing from the tuition revenue it’s foregoing plus the state match it will have to spend.

name fed_spend state_match_plus_tuition_fee_revs diff
California 3722.686 1889.457 1833.228295
North Carolina 3722.686 2325.659 1397.026770
New Mexico 3722.686 2569.595 1153.090766
Mississippi 3722.686 2599.050 1123.636039
Florida 3722.686 2821.709 900.976507
Maine 3722.686 2897.870 824.815841
Arizona 3722.686 2973.930 748.755709
Texas 3722.686 2997.188 725.497975
Nebraska 3722.686 3091.043 631.642836
Kentucky 3722.686 3091.653 631.032315
Tennessee 3722.686 3234.342 488.344110
Arkansas 3722.686 3268.448 454.237776
Oklahoma 3722.686 3322.615 400.070904
Indiana 3722.686 3361.557 361.129125
Alabama 3722.686 3373.289 349.396339
West Virginia 3722.686 3508.301 214.385102
Missouri 3722.686 3513.799 208.887112
Nevada 3722.686 3527.896 194.789387
Georgia 3722.686 3576.772 145.914157
Illinois 3722.686 3729.369 -6.683087
Kansas 3722.686 3784.145 -61.458822
Louisiana 3722.686 3834.006 -111.320571
Idaho 3722.686 3877.406 -154.720427
Wyoming 3722.686 3894.073 -171.387047
Wisconsin 3722.686 4026.515 -303.829354
Rhode Island 3722.686 4149.777 -427.091468
Ohio 3722.686 4300.934 -578.248412
Iowa 3722.686 4326.233 -603.547308
Minnesota 3722.686 4337.409 -614.723015
New York 3722.686 4395.118 -672.432228
Washington 3722.686 4396.688 -674.001857
Hawaii 3722.686 4422.506 -699.819846
Connecticut 3722.686 4442.483 -719.797224
South Carolina 3722.686 4515.065 -792.379642
Virginia 3722.686 4543.470 -820.784057
Montana 3722.686 4627.081 -904.395572
Michigan 3722.686 4877.930 -1155.244337
New Jersey 3722.686 4979.163 -1256.476786
North Dakota 3722.686 5025.852 -1303.166210
Oregon 3722.686 5048.341 -1325.655479
Utah 3722.686 5252.900 -1530.214293
Pennsylvania 3722.686 5295.913 -1573.226918
Maryland 3722.686 5379.163 -1656.477143
Massachusetts 3722.686 5533.980 -1811.294615
Colorado 3722.686 6100.486 -2377.800004
Delaware 3722.686 6594.575 -2871.889270
South Dakota 3722.686 6935.624 -3212.938176
New Hampshire 3722.686 7988.777 -4266.091229
Vermont 3722.686 10503.914 -6781.228177

From this perspective, it looks like there are about 30 states that would have to increase funding for community college students in order to participate. Of these, 7 would have to increase funding by $500 or so, 10 would have to increase funding by $500-1000,

8 would have to increase funding by $1000-2000 and 5 would have to increase funding by more than $2000 if they wanted per-student subsidy levels at community colleges to remain the same.

Like I said, not sure if this is correct yet, I welcome comments and criticisms: what am I getting wrong? Code and data available here for anyone else who wants to use it.

2021-09-14: Updates!

In a previous version I did not include required fees in calculating median tuition and fees across the states. This has been updated above.

Similarly the list of institutions included an error, and the correct number is now included.