Экономическая Теория

# Экономическая Теория
## Часть 2<br />Бизнес
### Александр Шеметев
### РАНХиГС
### 2021/09/07 (updated: 2021-09-21)

---

# темы на сегодня:

1) О бизнесе и предпринимательстве в экономике

дополнительная тема: Кривые стоимости

2) Максимизация прибыли в экономической теории

3) Уменьшение прибыли и производственная функция

4) Экономика масштабов

5) Прибыль

---

# 4 Факта о предпринимателях в мире

---

1) В мире 582 млн. предпринимателей (MARKINBLOG, 2020)

Это сопоставимо с 50% аудитории Инстаграм в мире в 2021 году

background-image: url(data:image/png;base64,#Q1.jpg)
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background-size: contain

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# 4 Факта о предпринимателях в мире

1) В мире 582 млн. предпринимателей (MARKINBLOG, 2020)

2) 252 миллиона предпринимателей в мире - женщины (GEM Consortium, 2019)

Это каждый 28 человек на планете

3) 67.7% самых богатых людей в мире<sup>1</sup> "сделали себя сами" (CNBC, 2019)

[1] Имеются в виду люди с чистым состоянием (за вычетом долгов) более 30 млн.$

4) 18.7% бизнесов в мире так или иначе являются семейными (GEM Consortium, 2019)

---

# 6 Фактов о предпринимателях в США

1) В США открывается чуть меньше 800 000 новых бизнесов в год (Statista, 2019)

2) 78% бизнесов в США являются официально прибыльными (Guidant Financial, 2020)

3) 72% бизнесов, ведомыми афроамериканцами в США являются прибыльными (Guidant Financial, 2020)

4) Более 50% бизнесов, открытыми за последние 10 лет в США, держат меньшинства (SBC, 2020)

5) За последний год число людей, желающих начать свое дело из-за разочарования в "Корпоративной Америке" выросло на 27% (Guidant Financial, 2020).

6) 15.6% всего взрослого населения США являются предпринимателями (Entrepreneurship.babson.edu, 2019); это более 27 млн. чел.

---

# 6 Фактов о предпринимателях в России [(Контур, 2020)](https://kontur.ru/articles/803)

1) Средний возраст действующих предпринимателей — 36 лет

2) Официально Личный доход предпринимателей чаще всего не превышает 100 000 руб. в месяц (56,6 %)

3) 9,6% предпринимателей ничего не зарабатывают

4) 47,4 % предпринимателей желают пассивного ведения бизнеса (получать деньги и ничего не делать)

5) Желаемая среднемесячная выручка у трети опрошенных — от 500 000 до 3 млн руб. (31,4 %), личный доход — от 100 000 до 300 000 руб. (32,5 %)

6) Нежелание попробовать себя в качестве предпринимателя чаще всего вызвано удовлетворенностью текущей работой (30,8 %), отсутствием стартового капитала (26,8 %) и необходимых знаний (16,9 %)

---

# Возможно, Вы тоже начнете однажды свой бизнес

Но как тогда считать Прибыль?

---

# дополнительная тема: Кривые стоимости

Важнейшая тема в экономике!

---

# Абсолютные издержки

1) Fixed Costs (Постоянные Издержки) - не изменяются от объема производства

2) Variable Costs (VC) - изменяются от объема производства

3) Total Costs (TC) = FC + VC

4) Marginal Costs - Дополнительная стоимость за 1 дополнительную единицу выпуска продукции

`$$MC=\frac{\Delta TC}{\Delta Q}=\frac{Изменение_в ТС}{Изменение_в Выпуске}$$`

---

# Издержки на единицу продукции

1) Average Variable Costs (AVC) - Средние переменные издержки:

`$$AVC=\frac{VC}{Q}$$`
--

2) Average Fixed Costs (AFC) - Средние Постоянные Издержки

`$$AFC=\frac{FC}{Q}$$`
--

3) Average Total Costs (ATC) - Средние Валовые Издержки

`$$ATC=\frac{TC}{Q}$$`

---

# Пример:

Table: Production

| Q |  VC  | FC  | TC | MC |
|:-:|:----:|:---:|:--:|:--:|
| 0 |  0$  | 10$ |    | -  |
| 1 | 10$  |     |    |    |
| 2 | 17$  |     |    |    |
| 3 | 25$  |     |    |    |
| 4 | 40$  |     |    |    |
| 5 | 60$  |     |    |    |
| 6 | 110$ |     |    |    |

Заполните недостающие данные в таблице (выпишите у себя значения)

Inspired by [(Clifford, 2014)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucJBO9UTmwo)

---

# Время на решение задачи (заполнение таблицы)

---

# Пример: заполняем FC

Table: Production

| Q |  VC  | FC  | TC | MC |
|:-:|:----:|:---:|:--:|:--:|
| 0 |  0$  | 10$ |    | -  |
| 1 | 10$  | 10$ |    |    |
| 2 | 17$  | 10$ |    |    |
| 3 | 25$  | 10$ |    |    |
| 4 | 40$  | 10$ |    |    |
| 5 | 60$  | 10$ |    |    |
| 6 | 110$ | 10$ |    |    |

---

# Пример: заполняем ТC

Table: Production

| Q |  VC  | FC  | TC  | MC |
|:-:|:----:|:---:|:---:|:--:|
| 0 |  0$  | 10$ | 10$ | -  |
| 1 | 10$  | 10$ |     |    |
| 2 | 17$  | 10$ |     |    |
| 3 | 25$  | 10$ |     |    |
| 4 | 40$  | 10$ |     |    |
| 5 | 60$  | 10$ |     |    |
| 6 | 110$ | 10$ |     |    |

---

# Пример: заполняем ТC

Table: Production

| Q |  VC  | FC  |  TC  | MC |
|:-:|:----:|:---:|:----:|:--:|
| 0 |  0$  | 10$ | 10$  | -  |
| 1 | 10$  | 10$ | 20$  |    |
| 2 | 17$  | 10$ | 27$  |    |
| 3 | 25$  | 10$ | 35$  |    |
| 4 | 40$  | 10$ | 50$  |    |
| 5 | 60$  | 10$ | 70$  |    |
| 6 | 110$ | 10$ | 120$ |    |

---

# Пример: заполняем МC

Table: Production

| Q |  VC  | FC  |  TC  | MC  |
|:-:|:----:|:---:|:----:|:---:|
| 0 |  0$  | 10$ | 10$  |  -  |
| 1 | 10$  | 10$ | 20$  | 10$ |
| 2 | 17$  | 10$ | 27$  |     |
| 3 | 25$  | 10$ | 35$  |     |
| 4 | 40$  | 10$ | 50$  |     |
| 5 | 60$  | 10$ | 70$  |     |
| 6 | 110$ | 10$ | 120$ |     |

---

# Пример: заполняем МC

Table: Production

| Q |  VC  | FC  |  TC  | MC  |
|:-:|:----:|:---:|:----:|:---:|
| 0 |  0$  | 10$ | 10$  |  -  |
| 1 | 10$  | 10$ | 20$  | 10$ |
| 2 | 17$  | 10$ | 27$  | 7$  |
| 3 | 25$  | 10$ | 35$  | 8$  |
| 4 | 40$  | 10$ | 50$  | 15$ |
| 5 | 60$  | 10$ | 70$  | 20$ |
| 6 | 110$ | 10$ | 120$ | 50$ |

---

# Задание Ч1: рассчитайте самостоятельно

1) ATC для 6 единиц

2) ATC для 5 единиц

3) AFC для 2 единиц

4) AFC для 5 единиц

5) AVC для 4 единиц

6) AVC для 5 единиц

7) ATC для 1 единицы

Ответа пришлите в Чат по алгоритму: "Задание Ч1, 1 - Х, 2 - Х, 3 - Х, 4 - Х, 5 - Х, 6 - Х, 7 - Х", где вместо Х впишите свои ответы

---

# Пример: заполняем средние издержки

Table: Production

| Q |  VC  | FC  |  TC  | MC  |  AVC  | AFC  |  ATC  |
|:-:|:----:|:---:|:----:|:---:|:-----:|:----:|:-----:|
| 0 |  0$  | 10$ | 10$  |  -  |   -   |  -   |   -   |
| 1 | 10$  | 10$ | 20$  | 10$ |  10$  | 10$  |  20$  |
| 2 | 17$  | 10$ | 27$  | 7$  | 8.5$  |  5$  | 13.5$ |
| 3 | 25$  | 10$ | 35$  | 8$  | 8.3$  | 3.3$ | 11.7$ |
| 4 | 40$  | 10$ | 50$  | 15$ |  10$  | 2.5$ | 12.5$ |
| 5 | 60$  | 10$ | 70$  | 20$ |  12$  |  2$  |  14$  |
| 6 | 110$ | 10$ | 120$ | 50$ | 18.3$ | 1.7$ |  20$  |

---

# Задание Ч1: рассчитайте самостоятельно

1) ATC для 6 единиц = <font color = "red">20$</font>

2) ATC для 5 единиц = <font color = "red">14$</font>

3) AFC для 2 единиц = <font color = "red">5$</font>

4) AFC для 5 единиц = <font color = "red">2$</font>

5) AVC для 4 единиц = <font color = "red">10$</font>

6) AVC для 5 единиц = <font color = "red">12$</font>

7) ATC для 1 единицы = <font color = "red">20$</font>

---

# Построение графика: издержки

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#График: издержки

---

# Почему кривые себестоимости выглядят именно так

FC->VC->TC->MC

MC->AFC->AVC->ATC

---

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# Чтение графика:

Представьте себе, что Вас спрашивают: какова себестомисть производства 5 изделий (по графику)?

---

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---

# Чтение графика:

Какова общая себестоимость производства 5 единиц изделия (по графику)?

---

<div id="htmlwidget-e40f572f3c1fc1881a70" style="width:504px;height:504px;" class="plotly html-widget"></div>
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---

# Чтение графика:

Каков общий размер переменных издержек производства 5 единиц изделия (по графику)?

---

<div id="htmlwidget-e87aa1b7b2817dde9737" style="width:504px;height:504px;" class="plotly html-widget"></div>
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---

# Чтение графика:

Каков общий размер постоянных издержек производства 5 единиц изделия (по графику)?

---

<div id="htmlwidget-0d78681f66b589380340" style="width:504px;height:504px;" class="plotly html-widget"></div>
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---

# Самые важные кривые себестоимости в экономике

---

<div id="htmlwidget-447195e40bec7ed0fb2d" style="width:504px;height:504px;" class="plotly html-widget"></div>
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---

# Объем производства, обеспечивающий максимальную экономическую выгоду

Оптимальное Q*: Кривая МС (Marginal Costs - Предельные Издержки)

---

background-image: url(data:image/png;base64,#Q2.jpg)
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Опимальный объём производства соответствует 10 пиццам

Тогда Фирма получит максимальную экономическую выгоду

---

# ПРАВИЛО: MR=MC

Предельные Издержки = Предельной Прибыли

---

# Определение размера максимальной прибыли

Необходима новая кривая: АТС - Средние Полные Издержки

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# Правило MR=MC Максимизирует прибыль

---

# Правило закрытия бизнеса

Необходима новая кривая: АVС - Средние Переменные Издержки

---

Представим себе светофор:

background-image: url(data:image/png;base64,#Q4.jpg)
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Перевернем его

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---

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---

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# Правило светофора в экономической теории

---

# Правило MR=MC => Минимизирует убытки

Если бизнес - убыточный и Вы в желтой зоне

# Правило MR=MC => Максимизирует Прибыль

Если Вы - в зелёной зоне

---

# Почему AVC является барьером межды красной и желтой зонами:

`$$ATC-AVC=AFC$$`
--

То есть, желтая зона - это когда Вы покрываете все свои VC (переменные издержки), а также часть FC (постоянные издержки)

AVC - это граница между красной и желтой зонами!

---

# Бизнес в условиях идеального рынка

Условие: Свободный доступ для всех участников (нет серъезных барьеров)

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# Бизнес в условиях идеального рынка

---

# Принцип нулевой прибыли:

1) Нулевая прибыль означает покрытие всех издержек:

а) Бухгалтерских издержек (accounting costs)

б) Opportunity costs (стоимость Ваших упущенных возможностей)

(б) означает, что Вы не заработаете больше, если пойдете работать по специальности/квалификации

---

# Принцип нулевой прибыли:

2) Если бизнес эффективен и ушел в желтую зону:

а) часть конкурентов должны уйти с рынка и бизнес вернется в условие 0 прибыли

3) Если бизнес эффективен и ушел в красную зону:

а) имеет смысл временно остановить деятельность, пока конкуренция на рынке не ослабится

* Вы должны быть всегда НЕ МЕНЕЕ эффективными, чем Ваши конкуренты!

* Иначе идеальный рынок санирует именно Вас

---

# Практические задания

---

# Задача 1:

Фирма печет пышки. MR = 20 RUB; MC = 25 RUB; AVC = 15 RUB. Фирма максимизирует свою приыль. Что ей делать? 
Пусть Q - объем выпуска.

а) Увеличивать Q

б) Уменьшать Q

в) Поддерживать текущий уровень выпуска

г) Закрыться в краткосрочном периоде

д) Закрыться в долгосровном периоде

* Напишите ответ (букву) в чате как "Задача 1. Ответ: *", где вместо маски поставьте букву.

---

# Задача 2:

Фирма минимизирует свои убытки. Когда ей лучше закрыться? 
Пусть TR - total revenue - общая выручка; TC - total costs - валовые издержки; MC - marginal costs - предельные издержки; MR - marginal revenue - предельный доход; АТС - средние валовые издержки; Р - цена.

а) TR<TC

б) MC<ATC

в) MC<MR

г) P<ATC

д) P<AVC

* Напишите ответ (букву) в чате как "Задача 2. Ответ: *", где вместо маски поставьте букву.

---

# Задача 3:

Фирма максимизирует свою приыль в условиях идеального рынка; при этом, P>ATC. Что из нижеследующего является правдой? 
Пусть TR - total revenue - общая выручка; TC - total costs - валовые издержки; MC - marginal costs - предельные издержки; MR - marginal revenue - предельный доход; АТС - средние валовые издержки; Р - цена; Q - объем выпуска.

а) Фирме нужнот покинуть рынок в долгосрочной перспективе

б) Другие фирмы прийдут на рынок при низких входных барьерах

в) ATC<AVC

г) Фирме нужно больше производить

д) Цена вырастет в долгосрочной перспективе

е) Фирме нужнот покинуть рынок в краткосрочной перспективе

* Напишите ответ (букву) в чате как "Задача 3. Ответ: *", где вместо маски поставьте букву.

---

# Практикум: определение MR=MC

---

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1) Сколько пицц нужно испечь, чтобы получить максимальную прибыль?

2) Какова выручка при данном количестве?

3) Какова прибыль при данном количестве?

---

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1) Сколько пицц нужно испечь, чтобы получить максимальную прибыль?

2) Какова выручка при данном количестве?

3) Какова прибыль при данном количестве?

---

background-image: url(data:image/png;base64,#Q9_5.jpg)
class: inverse, bottom, inverse
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# Правило: MR=MC

---

# Бизнес и отрасль

---

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# Фирма и отрасль (совершенная конкуренция)

---

# Самостоятельная работа №1: определение MR=MC

---

1) Сколько пицц нужно испечь, чтобы получить максимальную прибыль?

2) Какова выручка при данном количестве?

3) Какова прибыль при данном количестве?

- Ответ напишите в чат по аглоритму: СР1, 1 - Х; 2 - Х; 3 - Х, где вместо Х поставьте числа.

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1) Сколько пицц нужно испечь, чтобы получить максимальную прибыль?

2) Какова выручка при данном количестве?

3) Какова прибыль при данном количестве?

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# Самостоятельная работа №2: бизнес

1) Сколько Q нужно произвести, чтобы получить максимальную прибыль?

2) Какова выручка при данном количестве?

3) Какова прибыль при данном количестве?

- Ответ напишите в чат по аглоритму: СР2, 1 - Х; 2 - Х; 3 - Х, где вместо Х поставьте числа.

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# Тема: Уменьшение прибыли и производственная функция

Diminishing Returns and the Production Function

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# Что случится с производительностью труда при добавлении рабочих?

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Какова будет производиельность труда при добавлении работников?

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Насколько эффективны данные рабочие?

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# Эксперимент: сколько напечатают рабочие руки за 2 секунды?

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Сколько рабочих рук напечатало больше текста?

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# Закон убывающей предельной производительности

По мере добавления переменных ресурсов к постоянным ресурсам

Ваша дополнительная производительность от переменных ресурсов

будет постепенно сокращаться

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Больше рабочих, но меньше предельная производительность

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# С какого работника начинает действовать закон убывающей предельной производительности?

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# Графическое представление закона убывающей предельной производительности

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# Тема: Экономика масштабов

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# Тема: Краткий срок VS долгий срок

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# Тема: В Краткосрочный период работает закон Убывающей предельной производительности

См. предыдущую тему

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# Тема: В долгий срок нет постоянных ресурсов

Все ресурсы переменные

Вы можете купить больше печей, заводов, пароходов, ....

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Производительность при эффекте масштаба

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# Тема: Себестоимость в условиях эффекта масштаба

Мы поговорили о производительности при эффекте масштаба

Настало время поговорить о Себестоимости

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Себестоимость оборудования выше на большой фабрике

При этом, себестоимость на единицу продукции намного меньше на большой фабрике

Это и есть эффект масштаба (по Себестоимости)

Долгосрочная средняя стоимость единицы продукции падает, когда производим больше

=> быть больше - значит дешевле!

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Большие компании могут позволить себе высокопроизводительные машины

И могут покупать ресурсы большими партиями

Пусть и общая стоимость будет выше

Но средняя себестоимость единицы продукции будет меньше

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# Производство и эффект масштаба

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# Бонус: Себестоимость в условиях эффекта масштаба

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В условиях эффекта масштаба фирмы смотрят не только на себестоимость

Но они смотрят и на спрос (см. презентацию из Темы 1)

Фирма не хочет произвести максимум дешевой и никому не нужной продукции

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# Бонус: Себестоимость и жизненный цикл компании в условиях эффекта масштаба

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# [Себестоимость и жизненный цикл компании в условиях эффекта масштаба](https://books.google.ru/books?id=dq0sUIpiGuAC&printsec=frontcover&hl=ru&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false)

ЖЦИП - жизненный цикл продуктов

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# Как найти постоянные и переменные бухгалтерские издержки в балансе?

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# [Постоянные и переменные бухгалтерские издержки в балансе](https://books.google.ru/books?id=dq0sUIpiGuAC&printsec=frontcover&hl=ru&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false)

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# Прибыль

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# Новости про получение прибыли

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## Бизнес-идея Кевина: мороженное

(The Office: Kevin's Loan, 2008)

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# Калькуляция:

1) FC (За Место + ИП) = <font face="arial" color="#e8154a">7 500 рублей</font>

2) Покупка Лотка Мороженого: <font face="arial" color="#e8154a">35 000 рублей</font>

3) Вафельный Стаканчик = <font face="arial" color="#e8154a">25 рублей/шт.</font>

4) Стоимость мороженного = <font face="arial" color="#e8154a">25 рублей / шт.</font>

5) Продал 400 рожков по <font face="arial" color="#e8154a">135 рублей / штука</font>

Кевин мог бы за это время заработать не менее 7 000 рублей, работая офис-менеджером :)

Посчитайте прибыльность бизнеса Кевина!

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# Мнение о малом бизнесе:

всегда ли плохо иметь 0 экономическую прибыль?

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# Пример: Фермер Иван выращивает картофель

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# Фермер Иван выращивает картофель

1) Его TC<sup>1</sup> = 150 000 рублей / месяц

2) Его TR<sup>2</sup> = 150 000 рублей / месяц

3) Оцените деятельность фермера Ивана!

а) с позиций бухгалтерской прибыли

б) с позиций экономической прибыли

[1] TC - Общие издержки (включая упущенную выгоду)

[2] TR - Выручка с продажи картофеля

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# Практикум: Задание 1

Маша решает отказаться от должности государственного служащего с зарплатой 960 000 рублей в год.

Она начинает полиграфический бизнес

У нее есть свободная квартира в Санкт-Петербурге, которую можно было бы сдавать за 35 000 рублей в месяц (за вычетом КУ)

Материалы + аренда оборудования (лизинг) + зарплата рабочего = 125 000 рублей в месяц

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# За первый месяц она заработала 220 000 рублей. Следовательно, за первый месяц:

А) Ее экономическая прибыль составила +95 000 руб.

Б) Ее экономическая прибыль составила -20 000 руб.

В) Ее экономическая прибыль составила +30 000 руб.

Г) Ее экономическая прибыль составила - 95 000 руб.

Д) Ее экономическая прибыль составила +20 000 руб.

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# Практикум: Задание 2

Иван Васильев заработал в 2020 году ровно столько, чтобы покрыть все экономические расходы

Что из перечисленного правда:

А) Его бухгалтерские расходы больше экономических

Б) Его бухгалтерская прибыль меньше неявных расходов (упущенной выгоды)

В) Бухгалтерские издержки равны упущенной выгоде

Г) Неявные расходы выше постоянных издержек

Д) Бухгалтерская прибыль больше 0

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# Практикум: Задание 3

Что из перечисленного правда?

А) Бухгалтерская прибыль = TR - явные издержки

Б) В условиях совершенной конкуренции экономическая прибыль стремится к 0

В) Экономическая прибыль > 0, если TR > суммы явных и неявных издержек

Г) Бухгалтерская прибыль > 0 если TR > явные издержки

Д) Бухгалтерская прибыль < 0 если TR < суммы явных и неявных издержек

Е) Экономическая себестоимость включает в себя явные и неявные издержки