First Stop, 60-40: Latest Update

Based on MOH’s open data on GitHub.

Dr Saiful Safuan Md Sani https://saifulsafuan.com (Clinical Research Centre & Department of Medicine Hospital Kuala Lumpur)
2021-08-10

Table of Contents

A recent article, based on data from the United Kingdom, suggests that by reaching the thresholds of 60% and 40% of at least one dose vaccination and being fully vaccinated, respectively, hospitalisation rates and death rates will remarkably reduce.
If the same is true for Klang Valley, when will states in Klang Valley reach it?

WPKL At Least One Dose

June 11, 2021, was when the UK reached the threshold of 60% of its population vaccinated with at least one dose. We in WPKL were only three weeks behind. Based on MOH’s data everyone in WPKL has now received at least one dose of vaccination.

Figure 1: Click on the chart to engage its interactive mode. Hover cursor along the scatterplot below to search for a date.

WPKL Full Vaccination

However, we were six weeks behind the UK in reaching the 40% threshold of a fully vaccinated population in WPKL. We reached the 40% threshold of fully vaccinated population in WPKL on July 24, 2021.

Figure 2: Click on the chart to engage its interactive mode. Hover cursor along the scatterplot below to search for a date.

Selangor At Least One Dose

By the assumption that the vaccination rate remains linear from July 11 - July 24, 2021, Selangor will reach the 60% threshold of vaccinating its population with at least one dose of a vaccine by August 10, 2021.

Figure 3: Click on the chart to engage its interactive mode. Hover cursor along the scatterplot below to search for a date.

If only adult population is considered, Selangor has reached the 60% threshold of at least one dose of vaccination on July 30, 2021.

Figure 4: Click on the chart to engage its interactive mode. Hover cursor along the scatterplot below to search for a date.

Selangor Full Vaccination

By the assumption that the vaccination rate remains linear from July 11 - July 24, 2021, Selangor will reach the 40% threshold of a fully vaccinated population by September 26, 2021. The current rate shows that with ramped up vaccination rate in the state, this thresold will be reached by mid-August.

Figure 5: Click on the chart to engage its interactive mode. Hover cursor along the scatterplot below to search for a date.

When only adult population is considered, the 40% threshold will be reached even earlier.

Figure 6: Click on the chart to engage its interactive mode. Hover cursor along the scatterplot below to search for a date.

Conclusion

By September 26, 2021, we may see a significant reduction in hospitalisation and death in COVID-19 cases in Klang Valley, or even as soon as mid-August 2021.

Source of data:
Ministry of Health Malaysia: CPRC, CPRC Hospital System, MKAK, and MySejahtera. Official data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia. (2021) - “Open data on COVID-19 in Malaysia”. Published online at github.com. Retrieved from: ‘https://github.com/MoH-Malaysia/covid19-public?s=08’ [Online Resource]
References
Trust the Vaccines