South ural state university, Chelyabinsk, Russian federation
#Import
library(fpp2)
## Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
## method from
## as.zoo.data.frame zoo
## -- Attaching packages ---------------------------------------------- fpp2 2.4 --
## v ggplot2 3.3.2 v fma 2.4
## v forecast 8.13 v expsmooth 2.3
##
library(forecast)
library(ggplot2)
library("readxl")
library(moments)
library(forecast)
require(forecast)
require(tseries)
## Loading required package: tseries
require(markovchain)
## Loading required package: markovchain
## Package: markovchain
## Version: 0.8.5-3
## Date: 2020-12-03
## BugReport: https://github.com/spedygiorgio/markovchain/issues
require(data.table)
## Loading required package: data.table
library(Hmisc)
## Loading required package: lattice
## Loading required package: survival
## Loading required package: Formula
##
## Attaching package: 'Hmisc'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
##
## format.pval, units
library(ascii)
##Global vriable##
Full_original_data <- read.csv("data.csv") # path of your data ( time series data)
original_data<-Full_original_data$cases
y_lab <- "Forecast Third wave infection cases in Russia" # input name of data
Actual_date_interval <- c("2020/03/01","2021/06/30")
Forecast_date_interval <- c("2021/07/01","2021/07/30")
validation_data_days <-120
frequency<-"days"
Number_Neural<-15 # Number of Neural For model NNAR Model
NNAR_Model<- FALSE #create new model (TRUE/FALSE) #create new model (TRUE/FALSE)
frequency<-"days"
# Data Preparation & calculate some of statistics measures
summary(original_data) # Summary your time series
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 0 5159 8706 10119 14207 29935
# calculate standard deviation
data.frame(kurtosis=kurtosis(original_data)) # calculate Cofficient of kurtosis
## kurtosis
## 1 2.770659
data.frame(skewness=skewness(original_data)) # calculate Cofficient of skewness
## skewness
## 1 0.7578623
data.frame(Standard.deviation =sd(original_data))
## Standard.deviation
## 1 7986.47
#processing on data (input data)
rows <- NROW(original_data) # calculate number of rows in time series (number of days)
training_data<-original_data[1:(rows-validation_data_days)] # Training data
testing_data<-original_data[(rows-validation_data_days+1):rows] #testing data
AD<-fulldate<-seq(as.Date(Actual_date_interval[1]),as.Date(Actual_date_interval[2]), frequency) #input range for actual date
FD<-seq(as.Date(Forecast_date_interval[1]),as.Date(Forecast_date_interval[2]), frequency) #input range forecasting date
N_forecasting_days<-nrow(data.frame(FD)) #calculate number of days that you want to forecasting
validation_dates<-tail(AD,validation_data_days) # select validation_dates
validation_data_by_name<-weekdays(validation_dates) # put names of validation dates
forecasting_data_by_name<-weekdays(FD) # put names of Forecasting dates
#NNAR Model
if(NNAR_Model==TRUE){
data_series<-ts(training_data)
model_NNAR<-nnetar(data_series, size = Number_Neural)
saveRDS(model_NNAR, file = "model_NNAR.RDS")
my_model <- readRDS("model_NNAR.RDS")
accuracy(model_NNAR) # accuracy on training data #Print Model Parameters
model_NNAR
}
if(NNAR_Model==FALSE){
data_series<-ts(training_data)
#model_NNAR<-nnetar(data_series, size = Number_Numeral)
model_NNAR <- readRDS("model_NNAR.RDS")
accuracy(model_NNAR) # accuracy on training data #Print Model Parameters
model_NNAR
}
## Series: data_series
## Model: NNAR(22,15)
## Call: nnetar(y = data_series, size = Number_Neural)
##
## Average of 20 networks, each of which is
## a 22-15-1 network with 361 weights
## options were - linear output units
##
## sigma^2 estimated as 52109
# Testing Data Evaluation
forecasting_NNAR <- forecast(model_NNAR, h=N_forecasting_days+validation_data_days)
validation_forecast<-head(forecasting_NNAR$mean,validation_data_days)
MAPE_Per_Day<-round( abs(((testing_data-validation_forecast)/testing_data)*100) ,3)
paste ("MAPE % For ",validation_data_days,frequency,"by using NNAR Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE % For 120 days by using NNAR Model for ==> Forecast Third wave infection cases in Russia"
MAPE_Mean_All<-paste(round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3),"% MAPE ",validation_data_days,frequency,y_lab,sep=" ")
MAPE_Mean_All_NNAR<-round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3)
MAPE_NNAR<-paste(round(MAPE_Per_Day,3),"%")
MAPE_NNAR_Model<-paste(MAPE_Per_Day ,"%")
paste (" MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for ",validation_data_days," days in NNAR Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] " MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for 120 days in NNAR Model for ==> Forecast Third wave infection cases in Russia"
paste(MAPE_Mean_All,"%")
## [1] "19.635 % MAPE 120 days Forecast Third wave infection cases in Russia %"
paste ("MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for ",validation_data_days," days in NNAR Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for 120 days in NNAR Model for ==> Forecast Third wave infection cases in Russia"
print(ascii(data.frame(date_NNAR=validation_dates,validation_data_by_name,actual_data=testing_data,forecasting_NNAR=validation_forecast,MAPE_NNAR_Model)), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | | date_NNAR | validation_data_by_name | actual_data | forecasting_NNAR | MAPE_NNAR_Model |
## +=====+============+=========================+=============+==================+=================+
## | 1 | 2021-03-03 | Wednesday | 10535.00 | 10218.84 | 3.001 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 2 | 2021-03-04 | Thursday | 11385.00 | 10307.84 | 9.461 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 3 | 2021-03-05 | Friday | 11024.00 | 10339.70 | 6.207 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 4 | 2021-03-06 | Saturday | 11022.00 | 10138.96 | 8.012 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 5 | 2021-03-07 | Sunday | 10595.00 | 10198.57 | 3.742 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 6 | 2021-03-08 | Monday | 10253.00 | 9793.81 | 4.479 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 7 | 2021-03-09 | Tuesday | 9445.00 | 9613.03 | 1.779 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 8 | 2021-03-10 | Wednesday | 9079.00 | 9720.10 | 7.061 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 9 | 2021-03-11 | Thursday | 9270.00 | 9511.82 | 2.609 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 10 | 2021-03-12 | Friday | 9794.00 | 9486.25 | 3.142 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 11 | 2021-03-13 | Saturday | 9908.00 | 9369.62 | 5.434 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 12 | 2021-03-14 | Sunday | 10083.00 | 9221.09 | 8.548 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 13 | 2021-03-15 | Monday | 9437.00 | 9177.46 | 2.75 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 14 | 2021-03-16 | Tuesday | 9393.00 | 8811.25 | 6.193 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 15 | 2021-03-17 | Wednesday | 8998.00 | 8568.81 | 4.77 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 16 | 2021-03-18 | Thursday | 9803.00 | 8481.34 | 13.482 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 17 | 2021-03-19 | Friday | 9699.00 | 8486.72 | 12.499 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 18 | 2021-03-20 | Saturday | 9632.00 | 8468.30 | 12.082 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 19 | 2021-03-21 | Sunday | 9299.00 | 8445.10 | 9.183 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 20 | 2021-03-22 | Monday | 9284.00 | 8077.78 | 12.992 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 21 | 2021-03-23 | Tuesday | 8457.00 | 7849.34 | 7.185 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 22 | 2021-03-24 | Wednesday | 8861.00 | 7683.30 | 13.291 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 23 | 2021-03-25 | Thursday | 9221.00 | 7549.36 | 18.129 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 24 | 2021-03-26 | Friday | 9167.00 | 7490.86 | 18.285 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 25 | 2021-03-27 | Saturday | 8885.00 | 7408.56 | 16.617 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 26 | 2021-03-28 | Sunday | 9088.00 | 7281.34 | 19.88 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 27 | 2021-03-29 | Monday | 8711.00 | 7176.49 | 17.616 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 28 | 2021-03-30 | Tuesday | 8277.00 | 7004.29 | 15.376 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 29 | 2021-03-31 | Wednesday | 8275.00 | 6879.21 | 16.868 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 30 | 2021-04-01 | Thursday | 9169.00 | 6782.53 | 26.028 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 31 | 2021-04-02 | Friday | 8792.00 | 6754.85 | 23.171 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 32 | 2021-04-03 | Saturday | 9021.00 | 6723.51 | 25.468 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 33 | 2021-04-04 | Sunday | 8817.00 | 6681.05 | 24.225 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 34 | 2021-04-05 | Monday | 8646.00 | 6558.04 | 24.149 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 35 | 2021-04-06 | Tuesday | 8328.00 | 6448.15 | 22.573 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 36 | 2021-04-07 | Wednesday | 8294.00 | 6379.02 | 23.089 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 37 | 2021-04-08 | Thursday | 8672.00 | 6391.06 | 26.302 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 38 | 2021-04-09 | Friday | 9150.00 | 6412.84 | 29.914 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 39 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 8704.00 | 6413.67 | 26.314 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 40 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 8702.00 | 6367.33 | 26.829 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 41 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 8320.00 | 6282.47 | 24.49 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 42 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 8173.00 | 6227.57 | 23.803 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 43 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 8326.00 | 6192.36 | 25.626 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 44 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 8944.00 | 6175.72 | 30.951 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 45 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 8995.00 | 6191.83 | 31.164 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 46 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 9321.00 | 6190.75 | 33.583 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 47 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 8632.00 | 6164.36 | 28.587 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 48 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 8589.00 | 6117.09 | 28.78 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 49 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 8164.00 | 6048.52 | 25.912 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 50 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 8271.00 | 6010.67 | 27.328 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 51 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 8996.00 | 6005.80 | 33.239 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 52 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 8840.00 | 6020.96 | 31.89 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 53 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 8828.00 | 6019.12 | 31.818 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 54 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 8780.00 | 6002.89 | 31.63 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 55 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 8803.00 | 5960.92 | 32.285 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 56 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 8053.00 | 5933.61 | 26.318 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 57 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 7848.00 | 5927.05 | 24.477 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 58 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 9284.00 | 5946.42 | 35.95 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 59 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 8731.00 | 5965.89 | 31.67 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 60 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 9270.00 | 5984.71 | 35.44 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 61 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 8697.00 | 5987.40 | 31.156 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 62 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 8489.00 | 5982.72 | 29.524 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 63 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 7770.00 | 5989.35 | 22.917 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 64 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 7975.00 | 6010.23 | 24.637 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 65 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 7639.00 | 6047.33 | 20.836 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 66 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 8386.00 | 6100.82 | 27.25 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 67 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 8329.00 | 6144.02 | 26.233 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 68 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 8419.00 | 6178.81 | 26.609 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 69 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 8465.00 | 6212.75 | 26.607 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 70 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 8115.00 | 6254.55 | 22.926 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 71 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 8217.00 | 6321.86 | 23.064 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 72 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 8380.00 | 6411.02 | 23.496 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 73 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 9462.00 | 6511.90 | 31.178 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 74 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 8790.00 | 6614.51 | 24.75 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 75 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 8554.00 | 6727.26 | 21.355 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 76 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 9328.00 | 6850.75 | 26.557 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 77 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 8183.00 | 7004.95 | 14.396 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 78 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 7920.00 | 7195.23 | 9.151 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 79 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 9232.00 | 7424.40 | 19.58 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 80 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 8937.00 | 7687.36 | 13.983 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 81 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 8709.00 | 7988.76 | 8.27 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 82 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 8951.00 | 8323.81 | 7.007 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 83 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 8406.00 | 8698.66 | 3.482 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 84 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 7884.00 | 9113.14 | 15.59 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 85 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 8373.00 | 9552.38 | 14.086 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 86 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 9039.00 | 9996.46 | 10.593 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 87 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 9252.00 | 10426.87 | 12.699 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 88 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 9289.00 | 10830.37 | 16.594 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 89 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 9694.00 | 11208.60 | 15.624 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 90 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 8475.00 | 11565.86 | 36.47 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 91 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 9500.00 | 11908.47 | 25.352 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 92 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 8832.00 | 12244.22 | 38.635 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 93 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 8933.00 | 12580.96 | 40.837 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 94 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | 8947.00 | 12921.68 | 44.425 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 95 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | 9145.00 | 13265.70 | 45.06 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 96 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | 9163.00 | 13612.21 | 48.556 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 97 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | 9429.00 | 13963.70 | 48.093 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 98 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | 9977.00 | 14321.30 | 43.543 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 99 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | 10407.00 | 14676.47 | 41.025 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 100 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | 11699.00 | 15018.05 | 28.37 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 101 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | 12505.00 | 15335.72 | 22.637 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 102 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | 13510.00 | 15624.55 | 15.652 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 103 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | 14723.00 | 15886.95 | 7.906 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 104 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | 13721.00 | 16130.67 | 17.562 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 105 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | 14185.00 | 16361.80 | 15.346 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 106 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | 13397.00 | 16583.69 | 23.787 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 107 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | 14057.00 | 16798.33 | 19.502 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 108 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | 17262.00 | 17005.59 | 1.485 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 109 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | 17906.00 | 17205.30 | 3.913 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 110 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | 17611.00 | 17403.32 | 1.179 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 111 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | 17378.00 | 17609.06 | 1.33 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 112 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | 16715.00 | 17832.56 | 6.686 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 113 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | 17594.00 | 18081.44 | 2.77 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 114 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | 20182.00 | 18357.64 | 9.04 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 115 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | 20393.00 | 18656.39 | 8.516 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 116 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | 21665.00 | 18970.34 | 12.438 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 117 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | 20538.00 | 19293.12 | 6.061 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 118 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | 21650.00 | 19621.41 | 9.37 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 119 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | 20616.00 | 19954.32 | 3.21 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 120 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | 21042.00 | 20291.35 | 3.567 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_NNAR=tail(forecasting_NNAR$mean,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_NNAR |
## +====+============+=================+=====================+
## | 1 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | 20630.50 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 2 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | 20965.60 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 3 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | 21289.07 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 4 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | 21599.84 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 5 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | 21904.95 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 6 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | 22214.06 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 7 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | 22533.43 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 8 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | 22861.95 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 9 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | 23191.05 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 10 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | 23512.16 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 11 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | 23825.86 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 12 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | 24140.57 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 13 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | 24464.52 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 14 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | 24799.52 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 15 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | 25139.12 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 16 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | 25471.46 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 17 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | 25787.36 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 18 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | 26087.25 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 19 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | 26379.92 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 20 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | 26674.22 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 21 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | 26971.73 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 22 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | 27265.11 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 23 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | 27542.22 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 24 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | 27795.18 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 25 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | 28027.34 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 26 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | 28250.29 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 27 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | 28474.09 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 28 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | 28699.47 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 29 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | 28917.89 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 30 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | 29118.27 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
plot(forecasting_NNAR,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
x1_test <- ts(testing_data, start =(rows-validation_data_days+1) )
lines(x1_test, col='red',lwd=2)
graph1<-autoplot(forecasting_NNAR,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
graph1+scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::comma)+
forecast::autolayer(forecasting_NNAR$mean, series="NNAR Model",size = 0.7) +
guides(colour=guide_legend(title="Forecasts"),fill = "black")+
theme(legend.position="bottom")+
theme(legend.background = element_rect(fill="white",
size=0.7, linetype="solid",
colour ="gray"))
