South ural state university, Chelyabinsk, Russian federation
#Import
library(fpp2)
## Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
## method from
## as.zoo.data.frame zoo
## -- Attaching packages ---------------------------------------------- fpp2 2.4 --
## v ggplot2 3.3.2 v fma 2.4
## v forecast 8.13 v expsmooth 2.3
##
library(forecast)
library(ggplot2)
library("readxl")
library(moments)
library(forecast)
require(forecast)
require(tseries)
## Loading required package: tseries
require(markovchain)
## Loading required package: markovchain
## Package: markovchain
## Version: 0.8.5-3
## Date: 2020-12-03
## BugReport: https://github.com/spedygiorgio/markovchain/issues
require(data.table)
## Loading required package: data.table
library(Hmisc)
## Loading required package: lattice
## Loading required package: survival
## Loading required package: Formula
##
## Attaching package: 'Hmisc'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
##
## format.pval, units
library(ascii)
##Global vriable##
Full_original_data <- read.csv("data.csv") # path of your data ( time series data)
original_data<-Full_original_data$cases
y_lab <- "Forecast Third wave infection cases in Russia" # input name of data
Actual_date_interval <- c("2020/03/01","2021/06/30")
Forecast_date_interval <- c("2021/07/01","2021/07/30")
validation_data_days <-120
frequency<-"days"
Number_Neural<-15 # Number of Neural For model NNAR Model
NNAR_Model<- FALSE #create new model (TRUE/FALSE)
frequency<-"days"
number_bootstrapped<-3
# Data Preparation & calculate some of statistics measures
summary(original_data) # Summary your time series
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 0 5159 8706 10119 14207 29935
# calculate standard deviation
data.frame(kurtosis=kurtosis(original_data)) # calculate Cofficient of kurtosis
## kurtosis
## 1 2.770659
data.frame(skewness=skewness(original_data)) # calculate Cofficient of skewness
## skewness
## 1 0.7578623
data.frame(Standard.deviation =sd(original_data))
## Standard.deviation
## 1 7986.47
#processing on data (input data)
rows <- NROW(original_data) # calculate number of rows in time series (number of days)
training_data<-original_data[1:(rows-validation_data_days)] # Training data
testing_data<-original_data[(rows-validation_data_days+1):rows] #testing data
AD<-fulldate<-seq(as.Date(Actual_date_interval[1]),as.Date(Actual_date_interval[2]), frequency) #input range for actual date
FD<-seq(as.Date(Forecast_date_interval[1]),as.Date(Forecast_date_interval[2]), frequency) #input range forecasting date
N_forecasting_days<-nrow(data.frame(FD)) #calculate number of days that you want to forecasting
validation_dates<-tail(AD,validation_data_days) # select validation_dates
validation_data_by_name<-weekdays(validation_dates) # put names of validation dates
forecasting_data_by_name<-weekdays(FD) # put names of Forecasting dates
## Bootstrapping and bagging NNAR model
model_NNAR <- baggedModel(original_data,bootstrapped_series= bld.mbb.bootstrap(original_data,number_bootstrapped), fn = nnetar,size = Number_Neural)
forecasting_NNAR <- forecast(model_NNAR,N_forecasting_days+validation_data_days)
validation_forecast<-head(forecasting_NNAR$mean,validation_data_days)
MAPE_Per_Day<-round( abs(((testing_data-validation_forecast)/testing_data)*100) ,3)
paste ("MAPE % For ",validation_data_days,frequency,"by using NNAR Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE % For 120 days by using NNAR Model for ==> Forecast Third wave infection cases in Russia"
MAPE_Mean_All<-paste(round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3),"% MAPE ",validation_data_days,frequency,y_lab,sep=" ")
MAPE_Mean_All_NNAR<-round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3)
MAPE_NNAR<-paste(round(MAPE_Per_Day,3),"%")
MAPE_NNAR_Model<-paste(MAPE_Per_Day ,"%")
paste (" MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for ",validation_data_days," days in NNAR Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] " MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for 120 days in NNAR Model for ==> Forecast Third wave infection cases in Russia"
paste(MAPE_Mean_All,"%")
## [1] "154.279 % MAPE 120 days Forecast Third wave infection cases in Russia %"
paste ("MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for ",validation_data_days," days in NNAR Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for 120 days in NNAR Model for ==> Forecast Third wave infection cases in Russia"
print(ascii(data.frame(date_NNAR=validation_dates,validation_data_by_name,actual_data=testing_data,forecasting_NNAR=validation_forecast,MAPE_NNAR_Model)), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | | date_NNAR | validation_data_by_name | actual_data | forecasting_NNAR | MAPE_NNAR_Model |
## +=====+============+=========================+=============+==================+=================+
## | 1 | 2021-03-03 | Wednesday | 10535.00 | 21595.73 | 104.99 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 2 | 2021-03-04 | Thursday | 11385.00 | 21683.17 | 90.454 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 3 | 2021-03-05 | Friday | 11024.00 | 21766.41 | 97.446 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 4 | 2021-03-06 | Saturday | 11022.00 | 21791.24 | 97.707 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 5 | 2021-03-07 | Sunday | 10595.00 | 21807.26 | 105.826 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 6 | 2021-03-08 | Monday | 10253.00 | 21716.46 | 111.806 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 7 | 2021-03-09 | Tuesday | 9445.00 | 21947.87 | 132.376 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 8 | 2021-03-10 | Wednesday | 9079.00 | 22320.30 | 145.845 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 9 | 2021-03-11 | Thursday | 9270.00 | 22485.20 | 142.559 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 10 | 2021-03-12 | Friday | 9794.00 | 22587.01 | 130.621 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 11 | 2021-03-13 | Saturday | 9908.00 | 22629.00 | 128.391 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 12 | 2021-03-14 | Sunday | 10083.00 | 22612.51 | 124.264 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 13 | 2021-03-15 | Monday | 9437.00 | 22536.99 | 138.815 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 14 | 2021-03-16 | Tuesday | 9393.00 | 22729.33 | 141.982 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 15 | 2021-03-17 | Wednesday | 8998.00 | 23029.33 | 155.938 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 16 | 2021-03-18 | Thursday | 9803.00 | 23222.00 | 136.887 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 17 | 2021-03-19 | Friday | 9699.00 | 23330.47 | 140.545 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 18 | 2021-03-20 | Saturday | 9632.00 | 23389.87 | 142.835 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 19 | 2021-03-21 | Sunday | 9299.00 | 23360.64 | 151.217 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 20 | 2021-03-22 | Monday | 9284.00 | 23266.33 | 150.607 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 21 | 2021-03-23 | Tuesday | 8457.00 | 23393.38 | 176.616 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 22 | 2021-03-24 | Wednesday | 8861.00 | 23665.64 | 167.076 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 23 | 2021-03-25 | Thursday | 9221.00 | 23855.96 | 158.713 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 24 | 2021-03-26 | Friday | 9167.00 | 23961.58 | 161.39 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 25 | 2021-03-27 | Saturday | 8885.00 | 24027.68 | 170.43 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 26 | 2021-03-28 | Sunday | 9088.00 | 24014.77 | 164.247 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 27 | 2021-03-29 | Monday | 8711.00 | 23912.52 | 174.51 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 28 | 2021-03-30 | Tuesday | 8277.00 | 23965.65 | 189.545 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 29 | 2021-03-31 | Wednesday | 8275.00 | 24196.68 | 192.407 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 30 | 2021-04-01 | Thursday | 9169.00 | 24363.48 | 165.716 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 31 | 2021-04-02 | Friday | 8792.00 | 24449.94 | 178.093 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 32 | 2021-04-03 | Saturday | 9021.00 | 24505.44 | 171.649 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 33 | 2021-04-04 | Sunday | 8817.00 | 24516.69 | 178.062 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 34 | 2021-04-05 | Monday | 8646.00 | 24450.13 | 182.791 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 35 | 2021-04-06 | Tuesday | 8328.00 | 24461.31 | 193.724 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 36 | 2021-04-07 | Wednesday | 8294.00 | 24623.62 | 196.885 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 37 | 2021-04-08 | Thursday | 8672.00 | 24743.50 | 185.326 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 38 | 2021-04-09 | Friday | 9150.00 | 24799.68 | 171.035 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 39 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 8704.00 | 24831.09 | 185.284 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 40 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 8702.00 | 24846.45 | 185.526 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 41 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 8320.00 | 24823.53 | 198.36 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 42 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 8173.00 | 24844.61 | 203.984 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 43 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 8326.00 | 24941.52 | 199.562 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 44 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 8944.00 | 25004.52 | 179.568 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 45 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 8995.00 | 25025.97 | 178.221 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 46 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 9321.00 | 25035.34 | 168.591 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 47 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 8632.00 | 25041.21 | 190.097 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 48 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 8589.00 | 25037.99 | 191.512 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 49 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 8164.00 | 25067.10 | 207.044 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 50 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 8271.00 | 25116.46 | 203.669 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 51 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 8996.00 | 25135.10 | 179.403 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 52 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 8840.00 | 25131.87 | 184.297 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 53 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 8828.00 | 25128.37 | 184.644 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 54 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 8780.00 | 25127.30 | 186.188 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 55 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 8803.00 | 25130.46 | 185.476 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 56 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 8053.00 | 25150.34 | 212.31 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 57 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 7848.00 | 25165.50 | 220.661 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 58 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 9284.00 | 25160.74 | 171.012 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 59 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 8731.00 | 25150.38 | 188.058 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 60 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 9270.00 | 25146.56 | 171.268 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 61 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 8697.00 | 25148.26 | 189.16 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 62 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 8489.00 | 25156.24 | 196.339 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 63 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 7770.00 | 25168.62 | 223.92 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 64 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 7975.00 | 25173.35 | 215.653 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 65 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 7639.00 | 25171.82 | 229.517 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 66 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 8386.00 | 25174.67 | 200.199 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 67 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 8329.00 | 25185.66 | 202.385 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 68 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 8419.00 | 25201.67 | 199.343 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 69 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 8465.00 | 25220.91 | 197.943 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 70 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 8115.00 | 25239.60 | 211.024 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 71 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 8217.00 | 25254.50 | 207.345 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 72 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 8380.00 | 25269.14 | 201.541 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 73 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 9462.00 | 25287.66 | 167.255 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 74 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 8790.00 | 25309.21 | 187.932 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 75 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 8554.00 | 25330.73 | 196.127 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 76 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 9328.00 | 25350.58 | 171.769 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 77 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 8183.00 | 25367.21 | 209.999 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 78 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 7920.00 | 25380.75 | 220.464 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 79 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 9232.00 | 25393.56 | 175.06 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 80 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 8937.00 | 25406.98 | 184.29 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 81 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 8709.00 | 25419.70 | 191.879 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 82 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 8951.00 | 25430.14 | 184.104 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 83 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 8406.00 | 25437.81 | 202.615 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 84 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 7884.00 | 25442.76 | 222.714 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 85 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 8373.00 | 25445.97 | 203.905 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 86 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 9039.00 | 25448.71 | 181.543 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 87 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 9252.00 | 25451.09 | 175.087 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 88 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 9289.00 | 25452.11 | 174.003 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 89 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 9694.00 | 25451.27 | 162.547 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 90 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 8475.00 | 25448.89 | 200.282 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 91 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 9500.00 | 25445.63 | 167.849 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 92 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 8832.00 | 25442.33 | 188.07 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 93 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 8933.00 | 25439.49 | 184.781 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 94 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | 8947.00 | 25436.86 | 184.306 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 95 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | 9145.00 | 25434.06 | 178.12 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 96 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | 9163.00 | 25431.27 | 177.543 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 97 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | 9429.00 | 25429.07 | 169.69 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 98 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | 9977.00 | 25428.03 | 154.866 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 99 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | 10407.00 | 25428.48 | 144.34 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 100 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | 11699.00 | 25430.39 | 117.372 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 101 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | 12505.00 | 25433.41 | 103.386 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 102 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | 13510.00 | 25437.37 | 88.285 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 103 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | 14723.00 | 25442.36 | 72.807 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 104 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | 13721.00 | 25448.50 | 85.471 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 105 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | 14185.00 | 25455.71 | 79.455 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 106 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | 13397.00 | 25463.69 | 90.07 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 107 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | 14057.00 | 25472.00 | 81.205 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 108 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | 17262.00 | 25480.21 | 47.609 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 109 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | 17906.00 | 25488.10 | 42.344 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 110 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | 17611.00 | 25495.62 | 44.771 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 111 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | 17378.00 | 25502.65 | 46.753 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 112 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | 16715.00 | 25509.04 | 52.612 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 113 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | 17594.00 | 25514.57 | 45.019 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 114 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | 20182.00 | 25519.03 | 26.445 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 115 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | 20393.00 | 25522.35 | 25.152 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 116 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | 21665.00 | 25524.56 | 17.815 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 117 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | 20538.00 | 25525.74 | 24.285 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 118 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | 21650.00 | 25525.93 | 17.903 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 119 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | 20616.00 | 25525.12 | 23.812 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 120 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | 21042.00 | 25523.33 | 21.297 % |
## +-----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_NNAR=tail(forecasting_NNAR$mean,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_NNAR |
## +====+============+=================+=====================+
## | 1 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | 25520.60 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 2 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | 25517.08 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 3 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | 25512.94 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 4 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | 25508.34 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 5 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | 25503.42 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 6 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | 25498.28 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 7 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | 25493.08 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 8 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | 25487.98 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 9 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | 25483.19 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 10 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | 25478.87 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 11 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | 25475.15 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 12 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | 25472.12 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 13 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | 25469.85 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 14 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | 25468.39 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 15 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | 25467.78 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 16 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | 25468.00 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 17 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | 25468.99 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 18 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | 25470.66 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 19 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | 25472.84 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 20 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | 25475.41 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 21 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | 25478.21 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 22 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | 25481.10 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 23 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | 25483.91 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 24 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | 25486.51 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 25 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | 25488.75 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 26 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | 25490.53 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 27 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | 25491.75 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 28 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | 25492.36 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 29 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | 25492.31 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 30 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | 25491.58 |
## +----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
plot(forecasting_NNAR,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
x1_test <- ts(testing_data, start =(rows-validation_data_days+1) )
lines(x1_test, col='red',lwd=2)
graph1<-autoplot(forecasting_NNAR,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
graph1+scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::comma)+
forecast::autolayer(forecasting_NNAR$mean, series="NNAR Model",size = 0.7) +
guides(colour=guide_legend(title="Forecasts"),fill = "black")+
theme(legend.position="bottom")+
theme(legend.background = element_rect(fill="white",
size=0.7, linetype="solid",
colour ="gray"))
