In this document I am attempting to detail forecasts created using Soccerbase data for forthcoming seasons.
I’m loading the data directly, but it is constructed using Soccerbase’s past results, squad details, manager details, and transfer history.
Here are the main variables of interest:
## just.promotion just.relegation squad.size age
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. : 1.00 Min. : 11.97
## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.: 25.00 1st Qu.: 24.19
## Median :0.0000 Median :0.0000 Median : 32.00 Median : 25.10
## Mean :0.0949 Mean :0.0982 Mean : 30.07 Mean : 25.45
## 3rd Qu.:0.0000 3rd Qu.:0.0000 3rd Qu.: 37.00 3rd Qu.: 26.11
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :125.00 Max. :104.58
## NA's :2653 NA's :2653 NA's :32
## player.total.apps player.total.goals manager.full.experience manager.all.wins
## Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.0 Min. : 0.00
## 1st Qu.: 18.48 1st Qu.: 1.483 1st Qu.: 12.0 1st Qu.: 1.00
## Median : 64.13 Median : 6.088 Median : 103.0 Median : 35.00
## Mean : 70.22 Mean : 7.516 Mean : 199.8 Mean : 78.22
## 3rd Qu.:112.97 3rd Qu.:11.917 3rd Qu.: 291.0 3rd Qu.:112.50
## Max. :258.29 Max. :37.935 Max. :1535.0 Max. :858.00
##
## cplayed continuing seasons.at.team full.pos.1
## Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 1.000 Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.: 1.00 1st Qu.:10.00 1st Qu.: 1.667 1st Qu.: 26.00
## Median : 37.00 Median :16.00 Median : 2.030 Median : 54.00
## Mean : 78.78 Mean :15.15 Mean : 2.102 Mean : 54.55
## 3rd Qu.: 100.00 3rd Qu.:20.00 3rd Qu.: 2.468 3rd Qu.: 82.00
## Max. :1446.00 Max. :49.00 Max. :10.000 Max. :116.00
## NA's :2986We then run the regression of final league position on a number of explanatory variables.
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = position ~ just.promotion + just.relegation + squad.size +
## age + player.total.apps + player.total.goals + manager.full.experience +
## manager.all.wins + cplayed + continuing + seasons.at.team +
## full.pos.1 + team, data = squad.stats)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -15.5079 -4.0797 -0.0169 3.9682 20.2662
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 1.300e+01 3.218e+00 4.041 5.46e-05 ***
## just.promotion 2.784e+00 3.523e-01 7.902 3.84e-15 ***
## just.relegation -3.240e+00 3.486e-01 -9.294 < 2e-16 ***
## squad.size 3.709e-01 2.334e-02 15.891 < 2e-16 ***
## age 2.302e-01 1.032e-01 2.231 0.025773 *
## player.total.apps -2.132e-03 6.328e-03 -0.337 0.736191
## player.total.goals -1.668e-01 5.085e-02 -3.280 0.001051 **
## manager.full.experience 5.186e-03 2.039e-03 2.543 0.011035 *
## manager.all.wins -1.275e-02 4.984e-03 -2.558 0.010562 *
## cplayed -8.536e-04 9.641e-04 -0.885 0.376019
## continuing -2.848e-01 3.752e-02 -7.590 4.26e-14 ***
## seasons.at.team -1.240e+00 3.173e-01 -3.910 9.45e-05 ***
## full.pos.1 -1.281e-01 7.806e-03 -16.410 < 2e-16 ***
## teamafc w'bledon 2.539e+00 2.236e+00 1.136 0.256228
## teamaldershot 1.107e+00 1.976e+00 0.560 0.575490
## teamalfreton 3.011e+00 3.578e+00 0.842 0.400127
## teamaltrincham 1.007e+01 2.726e+00 3.693 0.000226 ***
## teamarsenal -1.242e+01 1.814e+00 -6.846 9.19e-12 ***
## teamaston villa -7.695e+00 1.841e+00 -4.179 3.02e-05 ***
## teambarnet 2.823e+00 1.779e+00 1.586 0.112740
## teambarnsley -2.540e+00 1.824e+00 -1.392 0.163918
## teambarrow 2.865e+00 2.373e+00 1.207 0.227377
## teambath city 1.328e+01 5.883e+00 2.257 0.024100 *
## teambirmingham -4.811e+00 1.833e+00 -2.625 0.008707 **
## teamblackburn -6.064e+00 1.867e+00 -3.248 0.001175 **
## teamblackpool -2.962e+00 1.804e+00 -1.641 0.100812
## teambolton -5.078e+00 1.853e+00 -2.741 0.006169 **
## teamboreham w 2.686e+00 2.933e+00 0.916 0.359793
## teamboston utd -1.305e+00 2.728e+00 -0.479 0.632314
## teambournemouth -1.359e+00 1.800e+00 -0.755 0.450403
## teambradford -2.266e+00 1.803e+00 -1.257 0.208895
## teambraintree -1.500e+00 2.917e+00 -0.514 0.607257
## teambrentford -6.424e+00 1.808e+00 -3.553 0.000386 ***
## teambrighton -2.081e+00 1.799e+00 -1.157 0.247305
## teambristol c -3.180e+00 1.818e+00 -1.749 0.080331 .
## teambristol r 2.268e-01 1.785e+00 0.127 0.898868
## teambromley -4.886e-01 2.917e+00 -0.167 0.867005
## teamburnley -2.336e+00 1.836e+00 -1.272 0.203328
## teamburton 9.307e-02 1.953e+00 0.048 0.961988
## teambury -7.790e-01 1.812e+00 -0.430 0.667311
## teamcambridge u 1.356e+00 1.779e+00 0.762 0.446248
## teamcanvey isl. 4.493e+00 5.889e+00 0.763 0.445495
## teamcardiff -4.562e+00 1.827e+00 -2.497 0.012572 *
## teamcarlisle 2.554e-01 1.782e+00 0.143 0.886029
## teamcharlton -5.033e+00 1.815e+00 -2.773 0.005584 **
## teamchelsea -1.195e+01 1.902e+00 -6.284 3.80e-10 ***
## teamcheltenham 1.320e+00 1.853e+00 0.712 0.476368
## teamchester 3.435e+00 1.890e+00 1.818 0.069230 .
## teamchesterfield 5.377e-01 1.781e+00 0.302 0.762733
## teamcolchester 1.951e-01 1.791e+00 0.109 0.913258
## teamcoventry -3.142e+00 1.820e+00 -1.727 0.084345 .
## teamcrawley 2.622e-01 2.017e+00 0.130 0.896567
## teamcrewe 2.041e+00 1.772e+00 1.152 0.249513
## teamcrystal palace -4.581e+00 1.836e+00 -2.495 0.012647 *
## teamdag & red 1.530e+00 1.899e+00 0.806 0.420583
## teamdarlington 3.088e-01 1.926e+00 0.160 0.872613
## teamdartford 1.179e+01 4.271e+00 2.762 0.005789 **
## teamderby -5.299e+00 1.856e+00 -2.856 0.004325 **
## teamdoncaster -1.751e+00 1.788e+00 -0.979 0.327565
## teamdover 1.238e+00 2.372e+00 0.522 0.601857
## teameastbourne 1.082e+01 4.266e+00 2.537 0.011244 *
## teameastleigh 4.069e+00 2.761e+00 1.474 0.140665
## teamebbsfleet 4.029e+00 2.292e+00 1.758 0.078812 .
## teameverton -7.380e+00 1.835e+00 -4.022 5.91e-05 ***
## teamexeter 2.876e+00 1.775e+00 1.620 0.105290
## teamfarnborough 1.981e-02 3.210e+00 0.006 0.995076
## teamfleetwood -5.825e+00 2.298e+00 -2.535 0.011290 *
## teamforest green 1.949e+00 1.891e+00 1.031 0.302803
## teamfulham -6.120e+00 1.841e+00 -3.325 0.000895 ***
## teamfylde 4.564e+00 4.273e+00 1.068 0.285619
## teamgateshead 1.295e+00 2.373e+00 0.546 0.585278
## teamgillingham -1.387e+00 1.797e+00 -0.772 0.440289
## teamgrays -2.462e+00 3.227e+00 -0.763 0.445504
## teamgrimsby 1.450e+00 1.778e+00 0.815 0.414941
## teamguiseley 1.071e+01 4.281e+00 2.501 0.012445 *
## teamhalifax 2.848e+00 2.048e+00 1.390 0.164499
## teamharrogate 3.491e-01 4.270e+00 0.082 0.934845
## teamhartlepool 3.706e+00 1.785e+00 2.076 0.037943 *
## teamhayes 4.196e-01 3.189e+00 0.132 0.895331
## teamhayes & y 2.589e+00 4.290e+00 0.604 0.546212
## teamhednesford 4.984e+00 3.606e+00 1.382 0.167119
## teamhiston 3.752e+00 3.581e+00 1.048 0.294728
## teamhuddersfield -2.539e+00 1.816e+00 -1.398 0.162206
## teamhull -2.128e+00 1.811e+00 -1.175 0.240282
## teamhyde 1.155e+01 5.872e+00 1.967 0.049288 *
## teamipswich -6.284e+00 1.817e+00 -3.457 0.000553 ***
## teamkettering 1.673e+00 2.936e+00 0.570 0.568763
## teamkidderminster 9.625e-01 1.953e+00 0.493 0.622187
## teamkingstonian -1.768e+00 4.290e+00 -0.412 0.680276
## teamleeds -8.935e+00 1.815e+00 -4.923 9.01e-07 ***
## teamleicester -7.024e+00 1.855e+00 -3.787 0.000155 ***
## teamleigh genesis 1.832e+00 3.223e+00 0.568 0.569771
## teamleyton orient 1.808e+00 1.781e+00 1.016 0.309929
## teamlincoln 3.977e-01 1.782e+00 0.223 0.823399
## teamliverpool -1.293e+01 1.796e+00 -7.203 7.44e-13 ***
## teamluton -1.535e+00 1.771e+00 -0.867 0.385937
## teammacclesfield 3.468e+00 1.868e+00 1.857 0.063434 .
## teammaidenhead 1.040e+01 3.584e+00 2.901 0.003753 **
## teammaidstone 5.289e+00 4.277e+00 1.236 0.216376
## teamman city -9.416e+00 1.875e+00 -5.022 5.41e-07 ***
## teamman utd -1.159e+01 1.843e+00 -6.291 3.62e-10 ***
## teammansfield 1.799e-01 1.782e+00 0.101 0.919588
## teammargate 1.946e+00 4.293e+00 0.453 0.650294
## teammiddlesbrough -6.152e+00 1.855e+00 -3.316 0.000924 ***
## teammillwall -3.242e+00 1.819e+00 -1.782 0.074860 .
## teammk dons -3.308e+00 2.023e+00 -1.635 0.102118
## teammorecambe 3.704e+00 1.870e+00 1.980 0.047765 *
## teamnewcastle -7.399e+00 1.881e+00 -3.934 8.55e-05 ***
## teamnewport co 3.529e-01 2.293e+00 0.154 0.877704
## teamnorthampton 1.362e-01 1.788e+00 0.076 0.939286
## teamnorthwich 3.373e+00 2.481e+00 1.359 0.174191
## teamnorwich -5.236e+00 1.818e+00 -2.880 0.004007 **
## teamnottm forest -5.188e+00 1.776e+00 -2.921 0.003515 **
## teamnotts co 4.420e-01 1.795e+00 0.246 0.805542
## teamnuneaton 2.762e+00 2.934e+00 0.942 0.346456
## teamoldham -7.531e-01 1.784e+00 -0.422 0.672948
## teamoxford -1.754e+00 1.778e+00 -0.987 0.323887
## teampeterborough -1.926e+00 1.785e+00 -1.079 0.280781
## teamplymouth -1.144e+00 1.795e+00 -0.637 0.524127
## teamport vale 5.021e-01 1.781e+00 0.282 0.777999
## teamportsmouth -3.546e+00 1.831e+00 -1.937 0.052796 .
## teampreston -4.726e+00 1.821e+00 -2.595 0.009517 **
## teamqpr -4.189e+00 1.823e+00 -2.298 0.021628 *
## teamreading -5.679e+00 1.834e+00 -3.096 0.001980 **
## teamrochdale 3.987e-01 1.775e+00 0.225 0.822249
## teamrotherham -3.014e-01 1.796e+00 -0.168 0.866720
## teamrushden -6.247e-01 2.120e+00 -0.295 0.768253
## teamsalford -5.814e+00 4.280e+00 -1.358 0.174447
## teamsalisbury -5.533e-01 4.274e+00 -0.129 0.896997
## teamscarborough 9.531e-01 2.132e+00 0.447 0.654932
## teamscunthorpe -2.611e-01 1.778e+00 -0.147 0.883290
## teamsheff utd -8.236e+00 1.845e+00 -4.463 8.38e-06 ***
## teamsheff wed -3.717e+00 1.833e+00 -2.028 0.042693 *
## teamshrewsbury 6.485e-01 1.781e+00 0.364 0.715759
## teamsolihull m -1.111e+00 3.191e+00 -0.348 0.727612
## teamsouthampton -5.076e+00 1.848e+00 -2.746 0.006066 **
## teamsouthend 6.945e-01 1.779e+00 0.390 0.696214
## teamsouthport 4.519e+00 2.179e+00 2.074 0.038173 *
## teamstafford 7.198e+00 5.886e+00 1.223 0.221468
## teamstevenage -3.103e+00 1.852e+00 -1.675 0.093976 .
## teamstockport -6.685e-01 1.894e+00 -0.353 0.724174
## teamstoke -4.976e+00 1.837e+00 -2.710 0.006778 **
## teamsunderland -4.692e+00 1.826e+00 -2.569 0.010254 *
## teamsutton utd -1.456e+00 3.186e+00 -0.457 0.647797
## teamswansea -3.399e+00 1.818e+00 -1.869 0.061702 .
## teamswindon -2.603e+00 1.802e+00 -1.444 0.148713
## teamtamworth 4.811e+00 2.600e+00 1.850 0.064414 .
## teamtelford 5.040e+00 2.489e+00 2.025 0.042953 *
## teamtorquay 2.636e+00 1.806e+00 1.460 0.144506
## teamtottenham -9.308e+00 1.808e+00 -5.148 2.81e-07 ***
## teamtranmere -2.037e+00 1.792e+00 -1.137 0.255788
## teamwalsall -5.523e-01 1.797e+00 -0.307 0.758566
## teamwatford -4.665e+00 1.821e+00 -2.562 0.010445 *
## teamwelling 8.965e+00 3.187e+00 2.813 0.004939 **
## teamwest brom -4.719e+00 1.862e+00 -2.534 0.011335 *
## teamwest ham -8.164e+00 1.835e+00 -4.449 8.95e-06 ***
## teamweymouth 2.946e+00 4.290e+00 0.687 0.492305
## teamwigan -5.419e+00 1.830e+00 -2.961 0.003088 **
## teamwimbledon -4.904e+00 2.243e+00 -2.187 0.028822 *
## teamwoking 3.861e+00 1.976e+00 1.954 0.050836 .
## teamwolves -7.441e+00 1.819e+00 -4.091 4.42e-05 ***
## teamwrexham 1.142e+00 1.771e+00 0.645 0.519084
## teamwycombe 1.360e+00 1.800e+00 0.756 0.449897
## teamyeovil -1.121e+00 1.848e+00 -0.607 0.544193
## teamyork 1.989e+00 1.833e+00 1.085 0.278110
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 5.695 on 2940 degrees of freedom
## (3174 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.3264, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2889
## F-statistic: 8.688 on 164 and 2940 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16We now create the forecasts: