Original Publish Date: 14 July, 2021
Updated on: 03:07 PM – 18 July, 2021
In this section we are using NES data set to asses who and what contributes to Congress’ vote loss.
Q1a. (If Voted) Whom did you vote for? I am giving you this slip which has names and election symbols of all the candidates that you saw on the voting machine. On this slip please put a mark in front of the same symbol against which you pressed the button. (Supply WHITE dummy ballot and explain procedure) ___________________________ 99. Not voted
Q1e. (If Voted) Would you say that the party/candidate you voted for was the one you really wanted to vote, or you voted for a party/candidate other than the one you really liked because you did not want a particuler party/candidate to win the election?
Q5. What was the single most important issue for you while voting in this election? (Record first answer and consult code book for coding later) ________________________________________________________________98. DK/CS/NR
Q5a. In your opinion,which party in this election has raised issues and problems youconsider most important? (Consult the code book for party code) 98. Can’t say 99. NA
Q7. People have different considerations while deciding whom to vote for. What mattered to you more while deciding whom to vote for in the recent election - party or candidate?
Q11. Is there any political party you particularly feel close to? 2. Yes 1. No
Q11a. (If Yes) Which party? (Consult the code book for party codes) 99. NA
Q12. Are you a member of any political party? 2. Yes 1. No Q12a. (If Yes) Which party? (Consult the code book for party codes) 99. NA
Q7a. (If ’Party’in Q7) What was the most important consideration in favour of the party? (Don’t Read Answer Categories)
Q27. Thinking of how you (or your family, in the case of first time voters) have voted in the last few elections, how would you describe yourself? Which party’s traditional supporter are you? (Record exact name & consult party codes) 97. Not a supporter of any one party 98. DK/CS/NR
Q29. Let us assume that in this election Narendra Modi was not the PM candidate of the BJP/NDA. In such a situation, would you have voted for some other party instead of the party you have voted for or this would have made no difference on your decision?
| party_vote | count | prop |
|---|---|---|
| BJP | 7009 | 0.32 |
| INC | 4563 | 0.21 |
| NA | 2075 | 0.10 |
| Others | 8167 | 0.37 |
Q11. Is there any political party you particularly feel close to? 2. Yes 1. No
Q11a. (If Yes) Which party? (Consult the code book for party codes) 99. NA
| party_close | count | prop |
|---|---|---|
| BJP | 1955 | 0.09 |
| INC | 1646 | 0.08 |
| NA | 15018 | 0.69 |
| Others | 3195 | 0.15 |
| party_member | count | prop |
|---|---|---|
| BJP | 465 | 0.02 |
| INC | 441 | 0.02 |
| NA | 19552 | 0.90 |
| Others | 1356 | 0.06 |
| party_support | count | prop |
|---|---|---|
| BJP | 3615 | 0.17 |
| INC | 3792 | 0.17 |
| No support/dk | 10451 | 0.48 |
| Others | 3956 | 0.18 |
Q5. What was the single most important issue for you while voting in this election? (Record first answer and consult code book for coding later) ________________________________________________________________98. DK/CS/NR
Q5a. In your opinion,which party in this election has raised issues and problems you consider most important? (Consult the code book for party code) 98. Can’t say 99. NA
| party_issues | count | prop |
|---|---|---|
| BJP | 5506 | 0.25 |
| INC | 3230 | 0.15 |
| NA | 2319 | 0.11 |
| Others | 10759 | 0.49 |
Question: people who are congress supporters but voted for non-congress allies
| inc_supporter_vote_lost | Freq |
|---|---|
| 0 | 20701 |
| 1 | 1113 |
| Var1 | Freq |
|---|---|
| Do not want to reveal | 6566 |
| Other party sopporters | 3962 |
| BJP Supporter | 3615 |
| INC Supporter | 3792 |
| No response | 3879 |
Model
| Dependent variable: | |||
| inc_supporter_vote_lost | |||
| All party supporters | All party supporters- NAs/DK/not revealed removed | Ran among INC supporters only | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |
| caste1: Upper Caste | 0.019** | 0.024 | 0.117** |
| (0.007) | (0.019) | (0.055) | |
| caste2: OBC | 0.025* | 0.033 | 0.089 |
| (0.012) | (0.022) | (0.056) | |
| caste3: SC | 0.028* | 0.040 | 0.073 |
| (0.015) | (0.028) | (0.065) | |
| caste4: ST | 0.036* | 0.058 | 0.119 |
| (0.020) | (0.037) | (0.094) | |
| caste5: Muslims | |||
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| urban | -0.00004 | 0.007 | 0.067** |
| (0.008) | (0.013) | (0.032) | |
| education2: Upto Primary | -0.004 | -0.008 | -0.046** |
| (0.006) | (0.009) | (0.021) | |
| education3: Upto Matric | -0.001 | -0.002 | -0.037 |
| (0.008) | (0.013) | (0.029) | |
| education4: College and above | -0.002 | 0.002 | -0.020 |
| (0.009) | (0.012) | (0.025) | |
| female | -0.006 | -0.006 | -0.025 |
| (0.003) | (0.007) | (0.018) | |
| age | -0.00003 | -0.0001 | -0.001** |
| (0.0001) | (0.0001) | (0.0004) | |
| religionChristian | -0.006 | -0.025 | -0.117** |
| (0.019) | (0.045) | (0.052) | |
| religionHindu | -0.029* | -0.051 | -0.115 |
| (0.015) | (0.039) | (0.074) | |
| religionMuslim | -0.003 | -0.026 | -0.179*** |
| (0.017) | (0.042) | (0.051) | |
| log(income) | 0.0002 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| (0.003) | (0.004) | (0.012) | |
| media_exposure | 0.002 | -0.001 | 0.007 |
| (0.002) | (0.004) | (0.010) | |
| bjp_inc_contest | 0.010 | 0.007 | -0.123** |
| (0.014) | (0.024) | (0.053) | |
| turnout | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.003) | |
| State fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constituency fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Clustered Error | Constituency level | Constituency level | Constituency level |
| Observations | 18,275 | 9,891 | 3,263 |
| R2 | 0.051 | 0.090 | 0.210 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.049 | 0.086 | 0.200 |
| Residual Std. Error | 0.193 (df = 18232) | 0.252 (df = 9848) | 0.376 (df = 3220) |
| Note: | p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01 | ||