As of 11 July 2021 the inshore run is 165,443 of which 129,395 is harvest, 36,048 is escapement and an additional 0 fish estimated to be between the fleet and the counting tower. As of 11 July 2021 The R-square for an on time run is 0.56(Fig. 1). The 2021 pre-season forecast for Togiak district calls for a total run of 200,000 sockeye.
The current projection for one day late is 527,628.8 sockeye.
The current projection for an on time run is 491,408.2 sockeye.
The current projection for nine day early is 461,576 sockeye.
Figure 1. Run to date (X-axis) regressed again final inshore run (y-axis). Red line indicates current run to date.
Figure 2. Total Run to date (black line) and forecasted total run given the minimum and maximum timing range used in this set of projections (red lines). (note: What is plotted here is catch + escapement with escapement lagged back to catch by estimated travel time between the fishing district and the escapement counting project. The regression model above includes estimated inriver abundance. These inriver estimates are not included in this graph.)
[Note: Hovering your mouse over data points will show data and year.]