Five Realities of Climate Change: a Closer Look at Albuquerque, NM
Table of Contents:
Note: This publication is a work-in-progress. It remains incomplete.
Intro
More coming soon.
(1) Climate Change is Real
Climate is nothing more than the average condition of the weather over a period of years as exhibited by temperature, wind velocity, and precipitation. Change is simply the observation of how those variables shift over time. Taken together, climate change is the measurement and identification of weather-related trends throughout time. When the average global temperature warms, we call this global warming. You can probably guess that global cooling occurs when global temperatures trend colder.
Today, global warming is occurring all around the world. In Albuquerque, NM, temperatures have been rising since at least the early 1970s, and likely since the beginning of the 20th Century (NOAA, 2021). To demonstrate this point, the Average Annual Temperature for Albuquerque is shown in Figure 1 below. The orange line highlights how global warming increases temperatures across the Duke City (Appendix 1).
Figure 1
These temperature increases have serious consequences, which we’ll return to shortly. But first, let’s examine the difference between natural and human -induced climate change.
(2) Human Activity Makes it Worse
The Earth is an marvelous planet supporting all kinds of life. One of the most important occurrences that supports livable temperatures is the Greenhouse Gas Effect. This natural feature of the atmosphere moderates temperatures by trapping heat near Earth’s surface while filtering out harmful rays from the sun. Without the greenhouse gas effect, life on earth would not exist as we know it.
However, humans are disrupting the system by introducing heat-trapping gases to that natural cycle. And, this disruption occurs faster than the planet can naturally react. By adding these gases, the effect becomes supercharged in one direction: warmer.
So, how do we know that humans are the cause of increasing greenhouse gases? And, how do we know that this increase isn’t part of the natural cycle? The brief video below explains how we know human activity is the problem.
As the video highlights, several factors, such as volcanoes or the sun, can significantly impact the climate. But, the conclusion is clear that more than any other contributor, greenhouse gases are driving warming. This relatively simple idea and its conclusion is supported by nearly everyone who researches the topic. But, how do we know that scientists agree? Basically, the same way we measure public opinions on controversial topics as you’ll see below.
(3) Experts Agree
There are scientists working around the globe, investigating these topics. Many of them spend their entire careers and lives investigating and understanding the complexity involved with climate change.
Then, there are other researchers who happen to study the professional opinions of environmental and climate scientists. Dr. John Cook is one of those researchers.
Dr. Cook, and others, studied the beliefs of scientists across the globe. The results, shown in Figure 2, indicate that there is nearly a consensus between scientists affirming that climate change is real and that humans are making it worse (Cook et al. 2013).
Likewise, other researchers have reached very similar conclusions through their own independent studies (Doran and Zimmerman 2009; Anderegg et al. 2010).
Figure 2
As the figure highlights, over 98 percent of scientists agree, which is fairly high when you consider that nothing in science can ever achieve 100 percent certainty.
Now, knowing that humans are driving rising temperatures, the obvious question becomes: how bad are the impacts, and what should we do about it?
(4) The Impacts Are Bad!
More coming soon.
The heat is sure to have negative effects on the health of Burqueños, the productivity of agriculture, the quantity and quality of water resources, and the seerity of wildfires.
Heatwaves:
When extreme heatwaves swing across a region, humans are at greater risk of serious illness and death. Below, Figure 3 shows some common impacts (CDC, 2021).
Figure 3
Unfortunately, more extreme heatwaves are expected in Albuquerque as Figure 4 demonstrates (States at Risk, 2021). This reality means that the impacts to human health mentioned above will only worsen unless we take action.
Figure 4
Ag and Water Resources:
In the Middle Rio Grande River Valley (Figure 5), agriculture is essential to the culture and values of New Mexicans. For over a millennia, locals have farmed the region to support their livelihoods (Paradox et al. 2014). Yet, heatwaves can degrade agriculture productivity, threatening agrarian lifestyles and jeopardizing the existence of small farms.
Figure 5
Credit: Jim Bartolino, US Geological Survey. Public domain.
Likewise, warm temperatures can reduce water availability and degrade water quality.
Figure 5
# (temporal changes in snow melt & total changes in snow accumulation)Wildfires:
Conchas Fire in 2011. The fire burned 156,000 acres during what was New Mexico’s most extensive wildfire season. 
(5) There is Hope!
More coming soon.
There are two primary ways that humans must manage climate change:
reduce emissions, and
plan, prepare, and adapt.
Reducing Emissions:
Often called, “mitigation”, this strategy seeks to mitigate the source of the problem. Common strategies include:
- switching the electricity grid from coal-fired power plants to renewable energy sources,
- switching from gasoline-powered transportation to electric vehicles,
- reducing electricity demand and increasing efficiency,
- removing emission from the atmosphere (technically possible with modern technology, but also by planting vegetation such as trees),
- etc.
Planning, Preparing, & Adapting:
As its name implies, this strategy seeks to adapt to climate change impacts. Since impacts vary greatly, based on local factors, solutions depend on local response. Common strategies include:
- building sea-walls,
- planting more trees to provide shade from heat-waves,
- building cities in ways to reduce flood hazards,
- altering crop varieties or agriculture practices to account for drought, floods, and/or heat,
- facilitating adaptive management techniques in natural resource management,
- practicing conservation biology techniques in land-use planning,
- etc.
Conclusion
More coming soon.
Appendices
Appendix 1 - Figure 1 Data Characteristics:
- Source: NOAA, 2021.
- Date Range: 1932 - 2020
- Climate Station:
- Albuquerque International Airport
- 35.0419, -106.6155 (lat, long)
- Gray Line: observed annual average temperature at the climate station
- Orange Line: 10-year Simple Moving Average of the Gray Line
Appendix 2 - Figure 2 Data Characteristics:
- Recreated from Cook et al., 2013.
Sources:
Anderegg W R L, Prall J W, Harold J, and Schneider S H. 2010. “Expert credibility in climate change” Proceedings from the National Academy of Science. USA 107 12107-9. Retrieved on 2021-05-19 from https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Anderegg+W+R+L%2C+Prall+J+W%2C+Harold+J+and+Schneider+S+H+2010+Expert+credibility+in+climate+change+Proc.+Natl+Acad.+Sci.+USA+107+12107%E2%80%939
CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). 2021. “Climate Effects on Health.” Climate and Health. Retrieved on 2021-05-19 from https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/effects/default.htm
Cook J, Nuccitelli D, Green S A, Richardson M, Winkler B, Painting R, Way R, Jacobs P, and Skuce A. 2013. “Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature.” Environmental Research Letters 8 024024. Retrieved on 2021-05-19 from https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Cook+J%2C+Nuccitelli+D%2C+Green+S+A%2C+Richardson+M%2C+Winkler+B%2C+Painting+R%2C+Way+R%2C+Jacobs+P+and+Skuce+A+2013+Quantifying+the+consensus+on+anthropogenic+global+warming+in+the+scientific+literature+Environ.+Res.+Lett.+8+024024
Doran P T and Zimmerman M K. 2009. “Examining the scientific consensus on climate change.” Eos 90 22-3. Retrieved on 2021-05-20 from https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Doran+P+T+and+Zimmerman+M+K+2009+Examining+the+scientific+consensus+on+climate+change+Eos+90+22%E2%80%933
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), National Centers for Environmental Information. 2021. Climate Data Online. Retrieved on 2021-05-19 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/.
Paradox, A., Holmes, T., Demouche, L., & Skaggs, R. (2014). The South Valley—A Look at Small Farm Practices and Objectives Near Albuquerque, New Mexico’s Largest City. Research Report, 786, 8. Retrieved on 2021-07-17 from https://aces.nmsu.edu/pubs/research/economics/RR786/welcome.html.
States at Risk. 2021. “New Mexico Extreme Heat.” Retrieved on 2021-06-28 from https://statesatrisk.org/new-mexico/extreme-heat
Additional Readings:
Katharine Hayhoe & David Fenton, May 11, 2021 “How to make the climate emergency clear from Biden’s bully pulpit.” THE HILL. Opinion | Energy & Environment.
by Kolt H. Vaughn | 2021-07-17
The Five Realities of Climate Change by Kolt H. Vaughn is licensed under CC BY 4.0
