As of 13 July 2021 the inshore run is 56,871,683 of which 35,066,296 is harvest, 21,005,387 is escapement and an additional 800,000 fish estimated to be between the fleet and the counting towers/sonar. The R-square for an on time run is 0.92 (Fig. 1). The 2021 pre-season forecast for Bristol Bay predicts a total run of 51,060,000 sockeye.
Projections are made by regressing the total run to date against the final total run of the historical data where \(R\) is the run to date and \(F\) is the final total run for the district. The regression of
\((F) = Rx + \theta\)
is applied to the current run to date to project the final total run of the current run.
The current projection for one day late is 74,362,649 sockeye.
The current projection for an on time run is 71,328,417 sockeye.
The current projection for one day early is 68,911,662 sockeye.
Figure 1. Total run (y-axis) regressed against run to date (x-axis). Red line indicates current run to date.
Figure 2. Total Run to date (black line) and forecasted total run given the minimum and maximum timing range used in this set of projections (red lines).
[Note: Hovering your mouse over data points will show data and year.]