As of 14 July 2021 the inshore run is 5,034,971 of which 3,653,135 is harvest, 781,836 is escapement and an additional 600,000 fish estimated to be between the fleet and the counting tower. As of 14 July 2021 R-square for an on time run is 0.84; Fig. 1). The 2021 pre-season forecast for Ugashik district calls for a total run of 6,660,000 sockeye.
Projections are made by regressing the total run to date against the final total run of the historical data where \(R\) is the run to date and \(F\) is the final total run for the district. The regression of
\((F) = Rx + \theta\)
is applied to the current run to date to project the final total run of the current run.
The current projection for one day late is 6,904,565 sockeye.
The current projection for an on time run is 6,602,241 sockeye.
The current projection for one day early is 6,278,204 sockeye.
Figure 1. Run to date (X-axis) regressed again final inshore run (y-axis). Red line indicates current run to date.
Figure 2. Total Run to date (black line) and forecasted total run given the minimum and maximum timing range used in this set of projections (red lines). (note: What is plotted here is catch + escapement with escapement lagged back to catch by estimated travel time between the fishing district and the escapement counting project. The regression model above includes estimated inriver abundance. These inriver estimates are not included in this graph.)
[Note: Hovering your mouse over data points will show data and year.]