21 June 2021

Agenda

  • 10.30-10.40 : Welcome
  • 10.40-10.55 : Presentation of the Project, Farid FLICI
  • 10.55-11.05 : Healthy Life Expectancy in Algeria, Meryem CHINOUNE
  • 11.05-11.15 : Modeling Survivors’ Pensions Benefits : The effect of Nuptiality and Fertility, Hafida ASSAS
  • 11.15-11.25 : Regional Inequalities in Longevity, Amina Boukhalfa
  • 11.25-11.55 : Q & A
  • 11.55-12.00 : Concluding Remarks

    • General overview of the Project

    • Duration : 2 years (January 2021 – December 2022);
    • Funding : CREAD;

    Aim

    • Maintaining the long term sustainability of social security (SS) schemes returns at evaluating the different risks that it covers and to predict their future evolutin.

    • In this sense, longevity, aging and health are the main risk factors to be measured in order to strengthen the long term sustainability of the system.

    • This project aims at modeling these risks within the Algerian context and to estimate the impact of their expected evolution on the sustainability of the Algeria social security system.

    Axes

    • Population Ageing: Anticipate futur trends in population aging based on population projections and evaluate its impact on the financial sustainability of the Algerian retirement system;
    • Longevity: Expect futur trends of mortality for the global population, the population of retirees and that of people covered by social security;
    • Health: Estimate Healthy Life Expectancy (Disability & Chronic Diseases free life expectancy) for the Algerian population based on MICS and Censuses data and to design a model allowing to deduce its future evolution based on the projected life expectancy.

    Members

    • Farid FLICI, Ph.D, Project Manager, CREAD.
    • Meryem CHINOUNE, PhD Student / Research assistant, CREAD.
    • Hafida ASSAS, PhD Student, ENSSEA.
    • Amina BOUKHALFA, PhD Student, ENSSEA.
    • Yasmine HANNANI, Actuary, CNR.
    • Ahmed LAKEHAL, Actuary, CASNOS.

    Mortality and Longevity

    • Global population mortality forecasting;
    • National Mortality data quality assessement;
    • Longevity Vs. Poverty;
    • Regional Mortality in Algeria;
    • Mortality modeling and forecasting for the population of retirees;
    • Life Insurance and Social Security Life Tables;

    Global Population Mortality Forecasting

    Theoretical Contribution

    • Coherent mortality modeling : The kappa nested mortality model;
    • An R package for time series segmentation ( application to life expectancy at birth in Algeria)

    Mortality projections for the Algerian population

    • Publishing a methodology document to guide population projections for Algeria
    • Codes
    • Datafiles

    Mortality Forecasting - Retirees

    • Direct Pensions Life Tables;
    • Survivors Pensions Life Tables;
    • Mortality projections for the Algerian population of retirees;

    Ageing

    Mortality

    Fertility

    • Expert-opinion based projections
    • Measuring Fertility Intensions using social media

    Health

    • Disability Free Life Expectancy
    • Chronic Diseases Free Life Expectancy
    • Healthy Life Expectancy
    • Estimation and Projection
    • Impact of Social Security expanditures

    Recap

    — Levels Estimates, past and future trends Implication on Social Security Implication on Life Insurance
    Longevity
    • LHistorical Mortality Improvement in Algeria: Data Quality problems;
    • Mortality Forecasting for Algeria, by Poverty quintile, … etc.
    • Retirees’ Life Tables / forecasts
    • Coherent Models
    • Life tables based on the market experience
    • Impact on life insurance products pricing and reserving
    Health Disease-Free, Disability-Free, Healthy Life Expectancy
    • Effects on Social Security Expenditures
    • Social security data based estimates of Healthy life expectancy
    		Effect on Health Insurance pricing
    Ageing
    • Population projections for Algeria, Methodological reports, codes and data files
    • Expert opinion based fertility projection
    • Effect on retirement sustainability,
    • The effect of fertility & nuptiality on survivor benefits
    		———

    What’s already done

  • Flici, F. and Hammouda, N.E. (2021). Mortality Evolution in Algeria: What Can We Learn About Data Quality?, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 19: tbd. doi: https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2021.res1.3
  • FLICI, F. and PLANCHET, F. (2020). Financial Sustainability of the Algerian System: a perspective analysis of the 50 coming years. In “Economic Challenges of Pension Systems- A saistainability and International Management Perspective”, Springer Nature, Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37912-4_13
  • FLICI, F. (2020). “Closing-Out the Algerian Life Tables: for More Accuracy and Adequacy at Old-Age.” Acturial Research Clearing House, 2020(2), 2.
  • FLICI, F. and PLANCHET, F. (2019). “Experience Prospective Life-Tables for the Algerian Retirees”, Risks, 7(2), 38, doi:https://doi;org/10.3390/risks7020038
  • FLICI, F. (2021). " Coherent Mortality Forecasting for the Algerian Population." Insurance and Risk Management Journal 87 (3-4): 209-31.DOI: https://doi.org/10.7202/1076125ar
  • FLICI, F. (2020). " Analyzing the Trend of Life Expectancy Evolution in Algeria from 1962 to 2018: The S-logistic Segmentation with Jumps." Population Review 59(1): 56-72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2020.0002

    • Aging & retirement sustainability in Algeria

    Population Projection Simulator

    Multi-Scenarios population projection for Algeria

    …

    Questions & Remarks