Transit Oriented Development Project (Queens, NY)
Juliana Zhou (Collaborator: Julian Hartwell)
September 25, 2020
1 Introduction
For development policy experts, Queens makes for an interesting and unique case study because it contains both extremely dense urban areas along the subway lines, as well as more suburban neighborhoods that do not have easy access to subway transit. Additionally, from a sociological perspective, development in Queens is interesting because the county is one of the most diverse in the United States.
In this report, I attempt to determine the influence of transit-oriented development in Queens, NY by evaluating the differences between TOD and non-TOD areas across time. Due to New York City’s density, the TOD area will be defined as Census tracts within 1/4 mile of a subway station. The specific analyses I will conduct are listed below.1
* Mapping TOD differences for 2009 and 2016 in – + Population + Median rent + Bachelor degree holders (% of population) + Poverty (% of population) * Grouped bar plot of the above values across time and space for comparison purposes * Table of the above data for interpretability purposes * Graduate symbol maps showing differences across time in population and median rent within 1/4 mile of each subway station in Queens, for 2009 and 2016 * Line graph of median rent by distance from station, for 2009 and 2016 * Point-level robbery data in 2016, and its relationship to transit access and median rent
1.0.1 Preparing ACS and Map Data
The below maps show the MTA stations (Figure 1.1) used create a transit TOD buffer sone (Figure 1.2), and finally, the TOD tract areas that will be used to analyze our 4 key indicators.
2 Transit Oriented Development Indicator Maps
Using the data that were gathered and cleaned in Part 1, I map the four key indicators at the tract level, showing the outline of the TOD area for visual comparison.
2.1 Indicator 1: Population
Between 2009 and 2016, there has been a population increase within the TOD area, and a slight decrease in population in Northeastern Queens, far outside the TOD area, there the communites are much more suburban. In addition, there has also been a population increase along the western border of Queens, just across the East River from Manhattan.
2.2 Indicator 2: Median Rent
As expected, as the population within the TOD area has increased, median rent as increased with it, even in far-flung neighborhoods like Far Rockaway (southernmost TOD area). Interestingly, although the population has decreased in the northeastern neighborhoods of Flushing, Bayside, Hollis, and Jamaica, median rent has risen. This may be due in part to increased rental activity in the area, where previously homeownership has been the norm.
2.3 Indicator 3: Poverty Rate
There has been a clear increase in the poverty rate between 2009 and 2016, most notably within the TOD are of central Queens (not Far Rockaway). In fact, the distribution of poverty appears to have shifted toward transit resources over this time span.
2.4 Indicator 4: Bachelor Degree Holders
The percent of residents with bachelor degrees has largely remained steady in much of Queens, with two exceptions. First, in the neighborhoods of Astoria and Long Island City, which are closest to midtown Manhattan, the percentage of bachelor degree holders has increased since 2009. Second, there has been a decrease in bachelor degree holders in the northeastern suburbs, coinciding with a decrease in population in that area as well.
3 Grouped Bar Plots
The bar plot shown below allows for comparison of aggregated TOD and non-TOD areas on the four key indicators. The percent of bachelor degree holders, while previously equal between TOD and non-TOD areas, has increased since 2009, but only near transit lines. Poverty, median rent, and population have all increased at a similar rate in both TOD and non-TOD areas.
4 Indicator Table
Adjusting for inflation, the median rent has increased by approximately $300 since 2009 in both TOD and non-TOD areas (in 2009 dollars).
| TOD | year | Median_Rent | Total_Pop | Percent_Bach | Percent_Poverty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-TOD | 2009 | 1101.831 | 2979.685 | 0.0116029 | 0.0778717 |
| Non-TOD | 2016 | 1351.549 | 3001.824 | 0.0108520 | 0.0982078 |
| TOD | 2009 | 1056.311 | 3641.672 | 0.0112169 | 0.1396740 |
| TOD | 2016 | 1313.169 | 3723.713 | 0.0138662 | 0.1570449 |
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| Table 4.0 |
5 Population and Median Rent at Each Transit Stop
The below graduated symbol maps how the population and median income within a quarter mile of each MTA station. The most densely populated parts of the TOD area are in central Queens, possibly due to the relatively lower rent as compared to neighborhood that are closer to Manhattan. The graduated symbol map for median rent, however, shows a clear winner: Long Island City. The subway stops in this neighborhood, which are conveniently located to both Manhattan and Brooklyn, show median rents of over $2000.
6 Median Rent by Distance from TOD Area
Interestingly, contrary to the general understanding of how TOD affects local rent, on Queen the median rent increases as one travels farther from the subway station. Again, this may be due in part to the larger homes that exist in the more suburban neighborhoods of inner and eastern Queens. Future analyses may choose to control for property size by mapping median rent per square foot.
7 Robbery, Transit, and Median Rent
Robbery complaints to the NYPD in 2016 shows a clear geographic correlation with transit access, and less of an assocation with median rent. The neighborhoods with the lowest rates of robbery, unsurprisingly, are in the more suburban parts of Queens, where there is little or no subway and bus access.
Data Sources:
- Tract-level data from American Community Survey, 5-year estimates
- MTA station data from NYC Open Data
- 2016 robbery complaint data from NYC Open Data