Research Introduction
Research Proposition
Each year, thousands of individuals sign up for and participate in fantasy football leagues across the country. One of the most important aspects of success in these leagues is drafting the right players.
This question will help in making decisions when selecting players for upcoming seasons of fantasy football.
Levels of Inquiry
During this analysis we will look at:
- the first teams for each of the past five years
- The best performing rookies
- What Position you should use for your Flex position
Fantasy Football Background
Fantasy Football Team Makeup
Fantasy teams are made up of a total of 16 players.
- 9 Starters
- 7 Bench Spots
For any given week, a teams starters will include the following players:
- 1 Quarterback
- 2 Running Backs
- 2 Wide Receivers
- 1 Tight End
- 1 Defensive/Special Teams Unit
- 1 Kicker
- 1 “Flex” Position
What are Fantasy Drafts and how do they work?
To select the players on your team the league you are apart of will hold a draft where each team will take turns selecting players for the various positions on each team.
How points are earned in fantasy football
Offensive Players
| Action | Points |
|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 1 point / 25 yards |
| Passing Touchdowns | 4 points |
| Passing Interceptions | -2 points |
| Rushhing Yards | 1 point / 10 yards |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 6 points |
| Receptions | 1 points (only if using PPR scoring) |
| Recieving Yards | 1 point / 10 yards |
| Recieving Towchdowns | 6 points |
| 2-pt Conversions | 2 points |
| Fumbles Lost | -2 points |
| Fumbles Recovered for Touchdown | 6 points |
Defensive Units / Special Teams
| Action | Points |
|---|---|
| Sacks | 1 point |
| Interceptions | 2 points |
| Fumbles Recovered | 2 points |
| Safties | 2 points |
| Defensive Touchdowns | 6 points |
| Kick and Punt Return TouchDowns | 6 points |
| 2-pt Conversion Returns | 2 points |
| Points Allowed (0) | 10 points |
| Points Allowed (1-6) | 7 points |
| Points Allowed (7-13) | 4 points |
| Points Allowed (14-20) | 1 points |
| Points Allowed (21-27) | 0 points |
| Points Allowed (28-34) | -1 points |
| Points Allowed (35+) | -4 points |
Kickers
| Action | Points |
|---|---|
| PAT Made | 1 point |
| FG Made (0-49 yards) | 3 points |
| FG Made (50+ yards) | 5 points |
For the simplicity of this analysis we will be strictly looking at offensive players for the previous five seasons
First Teams
2020 First Team All-Fantasy-Football
| Name | Total | Average | Position | Team | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 468 | 29.25000 | QB | 1 | 2020 |
| Travis Kelce | 201 | 13.40000 | TE | 1 | 2020 |
| Davante Adams | 239 | 17.07143 | WR | 1 | 2020 |
| Tyreek Hill | 230 | 15.33333 | WR | 1 | 2020 |
| Derrick Henry | 304 | 19.00000 | RB | 1 | 2020 |
| Dalvin Cook | 286 | 20.42857 | RB | 1 | 2020 |
| Josh Allen | 460 | 28.75000 | Flex | 1 | 2020 |
Total points scored by the 2020 First Team: 2188
2019 First Team All-Fantasy-Football
| Name | Total | Average | Position | Team | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 474 | 31.60000 | QB | 1 | 2019 |
| Travis Kelce | 151 | 9.43750 | TE | 1 | 2019 |
| Michael Thomas | 219 | 13.68750 | WR | 1 | 2019 |
| Chris Godwin | 186 | 13.28571 | WR | 1 | 2019 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 340 | 21.25000 | RB | 1 | 2019 |
| Derrick Henry | 266 | 17.73333 | RB | 1 | 2019 |
| Dak Prescott | 385 | 24.06250 | Flex | 1 | 2019 |
Total points scored by the 2019 First Team: 2021
2018 First Team All-Fantasy-Football
| Name | Total | Average | Position | Team | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 507 | 31.68750 | QB | 1 | 2018 |
| Travis Kelce | 184 | 11.50000 | TE | 1 | 2018 |
| Tyreek Hill | 229 | 14.31250 | WR | 1 | 2018 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 215 | 13.43750 | WR | 1 | 2018 |
| Todd Gurley | 302 | 21.57143 | RB | 1 | 2018 |
| Saquon Barkley | 283 | 17.68750 | RB | 1 | 2018 |
| Matt Ryan | 417 | 26.06250 | Flex | 1 | 2018 |
Total points scored by the 2018 First Team: 2137
2017 First Team All-Fantasy-Football
| Name | Total | Average | Position | Team | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 402 | 25.12500 | QB | 1 | 2017 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 152 | 11.69231 | TE | 1 | 2017 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 208 | 13.86667 | WR | 1 | 2017 |
| Antonio Brown | 204 | 14.57143 | WR | 1 | 2017 |
| Todd Gurley | 304 | 20.26667 | RB | 1 | 2017 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 242 | 16.13333 | RB | 1 | 2017 |
| Tom Brady | 352 | 22.00000 | Flex | 1 | 2017 |
Total points scored by the 2017 First Team: 1864
2016 First Team All-Fantasy-Football
| Name | Total | Average | Position | Team | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 449 | 28.06250 | QB | 1 | 2016 |
| Travis Kelce | 133 | 8.31250 | TE | 1 | 2016 |
| Jordy Nelson | 201 | 12.56250 | WR | 1 | 2016 |
| Mike Evans | 200 | 12.50000 | WR | 1 | 2016 |
| David Johnson | 316 | 19.75000 | RB | 1 | 2016 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 281 | 18.73333 | RB | 1 | 2016 |
| Matt Ryan | 412 | 25.75000 | Flex | 1 | 2016 |
Total points scored by the 2016 First Team: 1992
Best Performing Rookies
One of the hard things to factor into drafting players is how rookies will preform when entering the league. Although it is hard to make these predictions without any previous knowledge like we have in this data set we can work with their performance during their rookie year to see if that is any indication of their performance moving forward.
To begin we first need to know the average Total points for players in the NFL.
Now that we know players on average score just around 60 points per season we can look at the top performing rookies of the 2019 season.
2019 Best Performing Rookies in 2019
| Year | Name | Total | GamesPlayed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | 311 | 16 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew | 265 | 14 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones | 263 | 13 |
| 2019 | Darren Waller | 252 | 32 |
| 2019 | Josh Jacobs | 164 | 13 |
| 2019 | A.J. Brown | 158 | 16 |
| 2019 | Miles Sanders | 157 | 16 |
| 2019 | David Montgomery | 135 | 16 |
| 2019 | Mason Rudolph | 128 | 10 |
| 2019 | Terry McLaurin | 128 | 14 |
| Year | Name | Total | GamesPlayed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Kyler Murray | 418 | 16 |
| 2020 | Darren Waller | 332 | 32 |
| 2020 | Daniel Jones | 198 | 14 |
| 2020 | David Montgomery | 198 | 15 |
| 2020 | Gardner Minshew | 187 | 9 |
| 2020 | Josh Jacobs | 184 | 15 |
| 2020 | A.J. Brown | 167 | 14 |
| 2020 | Miles Sanders | 135 | 12 |
| 2020 | Terry McLaurin | 131 | 15 |
| 2020 | Mason Rudolph | 22 | 4 |
2019 Best Performing Rookies in 2020
| Year | Name | Total | GamesPlayed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Kyler Murray | 418 | 16 |
| 2020 | Darren Waller | 332 | 32 |
| 2020 | Daniel Jones | 198 | 14 |
| 2020 | David Montgomery | 198 | 15 |
| 2020 | Gardner Minshew | 187 | 9 |
| 2020 | Josh Jacobs | 184 | 15 |
| 2020 | A.J. Brown | 167 | 14 |
| 2020 | Miles Sanders | 135 | 12 |
| 2020 | Terry McLaurin | 131 | 15 |
| 2020 | Mason Rudolph | 22 | 4 |
As we can see the mostly every player who performed well above average in 2019 also performed well above average in 2020 with the exception of Mason Rudolph who lost the starting position to the more experienced Ben Roethlisberger who was coming back from injury.
Knowing this we can then go into the 2021 season expecting the standout 2020 rookies to have a similar trend of continued success in the league during the 2021 season.
2020 Best Performing Rookies
| Name | AveragePoints | Points | GamesPlayed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 25.60000 | 384 | 15 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 13.73333 | 206 | 15 |
| Joe Burrow | 19.60000 | 196 | 10 |
| James Robinson | 13.42857 | 188 | 14 |
| Justin Jefferson | 11.18750 | 179 | 16 |
| Antonio Gibson | 11.28571 | 158 | 14 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 14.90000 | 149 | 10 |
| Chase Claypool | 9.06250 | 145 | 16 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 9.40000 | 141 | 15 |
| D’Andre Swift | 10.38462 | 135 | 13 |
Flex Position
Another consideration when playing fantasy football is what player you should place in the flex position. As this can be any player or position, it leaves the question as to what position would most consistently get the most points.
To better understand how each position compares to the average points their players get each week lets break the data down by position and calculate the average points scored each week.
From this graph it is obvious that the quarterback position by in large out scores every other position in average points points week.
Another consideration would be the number of players available at a given position ad given that there are generally fewer quarterbacks than lets say wide receivers, we also need to make sure that there would be enough quarterbacks playing earning this many points as there may be a few high scorers pulling up the average.
Quarterbacks averaging over 17 points per week and played 10+ weeks
| Name | Avg | gamesplayed |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29.26667 | 15 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 29.25000 | 16 |
| Josh Allen | 28.75000 | 16 |
| Russell Wilson | 26.75000 | 16 |
| Deshaun Watson | 26.31250 | 16 |
| Kyler Murray | 26.12500 | 16 |
| Justin Herbert | 25.60000 | 15 |
| Tom Brady | 25.50000 | 16 |
| Lamar Jackson | 25.00000 | 15 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 24.62500 | 16 |
| Kirk Cousins | 23.12500 | 16 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21.73333 | 15 |
| Drew Brees | 21.25000 | 12 |
| Matt Ryan | 20.43750 | 16 |
| Derek Carr | 20.25000 | 16 |
| Matthew Stafford | 18.81250 | 16 |
| Carson Wentz | 18.58333 | 12 |
| Jared Goff | 18.33333 | 15 |
| Baker Mayfield | 17.93750 | 16 |
| Philip Rivers | 17.56250 | 16 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 17.46667 | 15 |
| Cam Newton | 17.06667 | 15 |
As we can see there are upwards of 20 quarterbacks who averaged over 17 points per week and played more than 10 games in the 2020 season. So unless there are more than 10 or so participants in your league it is probably a good idea to get one or two back up quarterbacks, one to start, one for the flex position, and one in case of injury.
Further Analysis
To continue this analysis, we would want to bring not only the data from offensive players, but also that of the defensive/special teams units and the kickers. This will allow for a more comprehensive picture of how fantasy football teams score their points.
You would also want to factor in the effects that bye weeks have on the seasons.
Finally you could potentially set up and optimization problem that based on previous stats, and current season schedules would select the best players you could draft as well as giving the second and third choices given availability during the drafting process.