The USA Covid 19 epidemic has ended.

The USA Covid 19 epidemic is concluding.

There were 2 waves/surges - the last one commenced in December 2020 from the B 117 variant.

The headline data (this report uses John Hopkins University data), is not in synch with excess mortality. The first surge was underreported and the B117 surge in deaths was overstated. A steady progression of Covid 19 throughout the summer and into winter was not reported in headline data.

Hopsitalizations from December 2020 to March 2021 were overstated and the system was never stresed to beyond capacity. ‘Protect the NHS’ meme was propoganda.

Using a .5% IFR, R(0) over time is derived from daily excess deaths and headline daily deaths (JHU).

Given the percentage of the population that are immune, fully vaccinated (JHU) and derived cumulative infected from headline daily deaths (JHU) and excess deaths, a R(0) boundary is derived over time based on Smith Deitz herd immunity threshold (HIT) formula of 1 - 1(current R(0)).

This shows the threshold or how much R(0) can increase before the epidemic resurges.

Two SIR models are shown based on death data using a consensus severity of .5% Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and 18 days to death once infected.

The SIR models are useful to understand the large differences between public perception given reported deaths and excess deaths.

Excess deaths were much larger than the reported deaths in the first phase.

Excess deaths are from the mortality tables of www.mortality.org, The Human Mortality Data Base.

United States is mapped against Swe_den. Swe_den is the ‘base case’ with only mitigation and little to suppression such as quarantine or lock-downs. Given the relentless infectiousness of Covid 19 there are little signs of suppression ending with better results than the Swedish model.