The SWE Covid 19 epidemic appears to be ending.

However headline case data has exploded upwards. This is not reflected in excess deaths or headline daily deaths and is likely due to greatly increased testing. Cases have never had a statistically robust relationship to deaths, both headline reported (JHU) and excess deaths. It has been a constant mistake of salacious media and polticos to see cases/ testing and infections as one and the same.

SWE did not pursue a Covid 19 public health policy of suppression but rather one of mitigation.

There were 2 waves/surges - the last one commenced in December 2020 and appears to have been imported from heavy suppression border countries in the EU.

The headline data (this report uses John Hopkins University data), is not in synch with excess mortality. The first surge was under reported and the second phase is overstated based on comparison to excess deaths.

Furthermore the headline death data - most use the series provided by John Hopkins UNiversity, seems to have been presented in as dramatic way possible.

When comparing Sweden to the United Kingdom, Germany or France, there appears to be no significant gain from suppression strategies versus the mitigation of Sweden.

The SWE daily reported case data has surged, which has been reported as an indication of the SWE mitigation strategy.

However, this increase in cases has not shown in excess deaths and headline deaths (JHU).

Daily cases (JHU) is smoothed and then lagged 18 days, consensus on severity of time to death.

It appears the increase of cases is from increased testing and not a surge in Covid 19.

This surge in cases seems to be from greatly increased testing and is not a resurgence of Covid 19 as is being experienced in Germany and other EU countries.

Cases are lagged 18 days and have a .5% Infected Fatality Rate, then compared to daily excess deaths and headline reported deaths (JHU).

SWE never had undue pressure on the health system.

Hospitalization is derived from excess deaths and headline deaths using consensus severity of 3.9% Infected Hospitalization Rate and a .5% Infection Fatality Rate.

Using excess deaths and headline death data (JHU), the percentage of Swedes cumulatively infected is given.

Sweden has applied a different vaccine rollout than other countries, providing the elderly vaccination first and then through lower age groups. They did not put health workers and so called front line workers first.

Currently the percentage of Swedish populace vaccinated is 24% which given the above means effective percentage vaccinated is comparable to 40% or more based on consensus severity of Covid 19 based upon age cohorts.

This must be added to the below percentage of cumulative infected.

Sweden has reached at least 50% immunity if not higher and with light mitigation has reached Smith Dietz HIT (herd immunnity threshold) and thereby ending the epidemic for the most in Sweden.

Two SIR models are shown based on death data using a consensus severity of .5% Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and 18 days to death once infected.

The SIR models are useful to understand the large differences between public perception given reported deaths and excess deaths.

Excess deaths are from the mortality tables of www.mortality.org, The Human Mortality Data Base.