Political_Impact

Document History

Original Publish Date: 18th April, 2021

Updated on: 27 April, 2021

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TURNOUT AE LEVEL(1974-2007)

• Turnout was considered for next year
• dynast variable for previous year

	Dependent variable:
	turnout_percentage_next
	OLS
dyn_cum_2	0.626
	(0.421)
margin_percentage_next	-0.068***
	(0.021)
enop_next	-0.517***
	(0.181)
n_cand_next	-0.128***
	(0.032)
constituency_new_type1	-5.992***
	(0.375)
recontest_next1	0.520*
	(0.275)
factor(incumbent_next)1	-0.341
	(0.301)
Year fixed effects	Yes
District Fixed Effects	Yes
Observations	3,591
R2	0.530
Adjusted R2	0.518
Residual Std. Error	6.125 (df = 3501)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

TURNOUT AE LEVEL NEW DYNAST VARIABLE(1974-2007)

• Turnout was considered for next year
• dynast variable for previous year

	Dependent variable:
	turnout_percentage_next
	OLS
dyn_cum_2_new	0.296
	(0.470)
margin_percentage_next	-0.068***
	(0.021)
enop_next	-0.523***
	(0.181)
n_cand_next	-0.128***
	(0.032)
constituency_new_type1	-6.004***
	(0.376)
recontest_next1	0.494*
	(0.275)
factor(incumbent_next)1	-0.387
	(0.305)
Year fixed effects	Yes
District Fixed Effects	Yes
Observations	3,591
R2	0.530
Adjusted R2	0.518
Residual Std. Error	6.127 (df = 3501)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

ENOP AE LEVEL(1974-2007)

	Dependent variable:
	enop_next
	OLS
dyn_cum_2	-0.075
	(0.063)
dyn_next1	-0.140***
	(0.049)
turnout_percentage_prev	-0.005
	(0.003)
turnout_percentage_next	-0.008**
	(0.004)
close_election1	0.514***
	(0.038)
constituency_new_type1	-0.341***
	(0.056)
Year fixed effects	Yes
District fixed effects	Yes
Observations	3,591
R2	0.325
Adjusted R2	0.308
Residual Std. Error	0.879 (df = 3502)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

ENOP AE LEVEL (1974-2007)[DYNASTY NEW VARIABLE]

	Dependent variable:
	enop_next
	OLS
dyn_cum_2_new	-0.060
	(0.076)
turnout_percentage_prev	-0.005
	(0.003)
turnout_percentage_next	-0.008**
	(0.004)
dyn_next1	-0.089*
	(0.050)
close_election1	0.515***
	(0.038)
constituency_new_type1	-0.337***
	(0.056)
Year fixed effects	Yes
District fixed effects	Yes
Observations	3,591
R2	0.323
Adjusted R2	0.306
Residual Std. Error	0.880 (df = 3502)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

NUMBER OF CANDIDATES AE LEVEL(1974-2007)

	Dependent variable:
	n_cand_next
	OLS
dyn_cum_2	-0.263
	(0.395)
n_cand_prev	0.328***
	(0.029)
factor(recontest_next)1	0.053
	(0.248)
factor(close_election)1	0.215
	(0.141)
factor(constituency_new_type)1	-3.138***
	(0.206)
factor(incumbent_next)1	-0.112
	(0.271)
Year fixed effects	Yes
District Fixed Effects	Yes
Observations	3,591
R2	0.562
Adjusted R2	0.551
Residual Std. Error	4.678 (df = 3502)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

NUMBER OF CANDIDATES AE LEVEL(1974-2007)NEW DYNAST VARIABLE

	Dependent variable:
	n_cand_next
	OLS
dyn_cum_2_new	-0.175
	(0.495)
n_cand_prev	0.328***
	(0.029)
factor(recontest_next)1	0.055
	(0.250)
factor(close_election)1	0.215
	(0.141)
factor(incumbent_next)1	-0.134
	(0.273)
factor(constituency_new_type)1	-3.135***
	(0.205)
Year fixed effects	Yes
District Fixed Effects	Yes
Observations	3,591
R2	0.562
Adjusted R2	0.551
Residual Std. Error	4.678 (df = 3502)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

MARGIN OF VICTORY AE LEVEL(1974-2007)

	Dependent variable:
	margin_percentage_next
	OLS
dyn_cum_2	0.358
	(0.548)
turnout_percentage_prev	-0.007
	(0.026)
factor(recontest_next)1	-0.235
	(0.338)
factor(close_election)1	-12.645***
	(0.320)
factor(incumbent_next)1	0.983**
	(0.413)
factor(constituency_new_type)1	0.748*
	(0.386)
Year fixed effects	Yes
District Fixed Effects	Yes
Observations	3,591
R2	0.421
Adjusted R2	0.407
Residual Std. Error	8.272 (df = 3502)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

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MARGIN OF VICTORY AE LEVEL(1974-2007) DYNAST VARIABLE

	Dependent variable:
	margin_percentage_next
	OLS
dyn_cum_2	0.358
	(0.548)
turnout_percentage_prev	-0.007
	(0.026)
factor(recontest_next)1	-0.235
	(0.338)
factor(close_election)1	-12.645***
	(0.320)
factor(incumbent_next)1	0.983**
	(0.413)
factor(constituency_new_type)1	0.748*
	(0.386)
Year fixed effects	Yes
District Fixed Effects	Yes
Observations	3,591
R2	0.421
Adjusted R2	0.407
Residual Std. Error	8.272 (df = 3502)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

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TURNOUT AT GE LEVEL ALL INDIA

	Dependent variable:
	turnout_percentage_next
	OLS
dyn	-0.115
	(0.256)
turnout_percentage_prev	0.754***
	(0.017)
margin_percentage_next	-0.008
	(0.012)
recontest_final	-0.439*
	(0.234)
enop_next	-0.723**
	(0.283)
Year fixed effects	Yes
State fixed effects	Yes
Observations	1,085
R2	0.881
Adjusted R2	0.877
Residual Std. Error	3.612 (df = 1043)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

TURNOUT AT GE LEVEL ALL INDIA WITH ADR VARIABLES

	Dependent variable:
	turnout_percentage_next
	OLS
dyn	-0.148
	(0.304)
criminalcases	0.022
	(0.017)
turnout_percentage_prev	0.789***
	(0.020)
log(total_assets_next)	-0.170*
	(0.092)
Year fixed effects	Yes
State fixed effects	Yes
Observations	820
R2	0.876
Adjusted R2	0.869
Residual Std. Error	3.810 (df = 780)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

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