Review/Overview
Big questions
- Should I recommend buying or selling this stock and why?
- What has the performance of the company been?
- What should I forecast for future performance and at what horizon?
- How risky are the forecasts and valuation?
Some details
- Summary of company, its strategies, industry, etc.
- Company and industry ROE and ROE decomposition
- History of ROE and its components
- Models for ROE and its components
- Models for value
- Models for returns
- Models for risk
- Textual extraction and analysis
- Interpretation of models and data
Questions
Dashboard
Does the dashboard include components for each of the topics covered in the course (see “Some details”)? (20 pts)
Are the analyses and models done correctly? (20 pts)
Are models carefully designed with variables that seem appropriate and that have been carefully prepared? (10 pts)
Are insights from the data and the models presented in a way that allow for easy interpretation? (5 pts)
Can a user that would like more information find and understand what the dashboard provider has done? (5 pts)
Did the team demonstrate an ability to move beyond or meaningfully adapt the dashboard and model code examples already given to them? (20 pts)
Presentation
Is the team able to make some inferences from what they have learned about the company that might help with the big questions? (20 pts)
Did the team correctly and meaningfully interpret their models? (10 pts)
Did the team correctly and meaningfully interpret their forecasts and other outputs? (10 points)
Summary
Column
Highlights
Growth forecasts
E[SGR 1YR] 11.3%
E[SGR 3YR] 4.9%
E[SGR 3YR] 4.6%
E[AGR 1YR] 10.1%Forecast interval
E[SGR 1YR] Range
-17.5 to 40.2%Change in manager sentiment (10-K)
0.31%Manager sentiment versus peers (10-K)
-4.1%2019 Key Variables
| SGR | 0.15 |
| AGR | 0.15 |
| LAT | 10.44 |
| ATO | 0.83 |
| PM | 0.06 |
| BM | 0.09 |
| EP | 0.02 |
| CHATO | 0.08 |
| CHPM | 0.02 |
Column
Business description
We design, develop, manufacture and sell high-performance fully electric vehicles (“EVs”) and energy generation and storage systems, and also install and maintain such energy systems and sell solar electricity. We are the world’s first vertically integrated sustainable energy company, offering end-to-end clean energy products, including generation, storage and consumption. We have established and continue to grow a global network of stores, galleries, vehicle service centers, Mobile Service technicians, body shops, Supercharger stations and Destination Chargers to accelerate the widespread adoption of our products, and we continue to develop self-driving capability in order to improve vehicle safety. Our sustainable energy products, engineering expertise, intense focus to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, and business model differentiate us from other companies.
Recent events
| date.filed | event.info |
|---|---|
| 2020-12-08 | Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2020-12-08 | Other Events |
| 2020-09-24 | Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders |
| 2020-09-08 | Other Events |
| 2020-09-01 | Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2020-09-01 | Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2020-09-01 | Other Events |
| 2020-08-11 | Other Events |
| 2020-07-02 | Regulation FD Disclosure |
| 2020-03-19 | Regulation FD Disclosure |
| 2020-02-19 | Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2020-02-19 | Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders |
| 2020-02-19 | Other Events |
| 2020-01-03 | Regulation FD Disclosure |
| 2019-12-26 | Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2019-12-26 | Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2019-12-26 | Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant |
| 2019-10-02 | Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2019-10-02 | Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant |
| 2019-10-02 | Regulation FD Disclosure |
| 2019-06-12 | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers |
| 2019-06-12 | Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders |
| 2019-05-13 | Other Events |
| 2019-05-03 | Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2019-05-03 | Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders |
| 2019-05-03 | Other Events |
| 2019-04-19 | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers |
| 2019-04-19 | Other Events |
| 2019-03-14 | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers |
| 2019-03-11 | Regulation FD Disclosure |
| 2019-03-07 | Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2019-03-07 | Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant |
| 2019-03-01 | Regulation FD Disclosure |
| 2019-02-01 | Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers |
| 2019-02-01 | Other Events |
| 2019-01-18 | Regulation FD Disclosure |
| 2019-01-04 | Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2019-01-04 | Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement |
| 2019-01-04 | Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant |
| 2019-01-02 | Regulation FD Disclosure |
Column
Market capitalization ($Billions)
ROA components (vs Industry)
Risk
Probability of market loss
Loss model
Call:
lm(formula = LOSS ~ SGR + AGR + LAT + ATO + PM + BM + EP + CHATO +
CHPM, data = estset)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.7265 -0.3695 -0.3315 0.6139 0.7850
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.4672625 0.0140300 33.304 < 2e-16 ***
SGR 0.0723235 0.0110900 6.521 7.05e-11 ***
AGR 0.0666519 0.0097223 6.856 7.21e-12 ***
LAT -0.0139187 0.0015990 -8.704 < 2e-16 ***
ATO 0.0005524 0.0032724 0.169 0.865939
PM -0.0618325 0.0163136 -3.790 0.000151 ***
BM 0.0114504 0.0071899 1.593 0.111265
EP -0.1113660 0.0303111 -3.674 0.000239 ***
CHATO -0.0431482 0.0090958 -4.744 2.11e-06 ***
CHPM 0.0429718 0.0282750 1.520 0.128575
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Residual standard error: 0.4797 on 39345 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.009965, Adjusted R-squared: 0.009738
F-statistic: 44 on 9 and 39345 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16Tesla estimated probability of loss
[1] "33.6%"Multiple year sales decline model (0 is low [good] 3 is high [bad])
Sales decline model
Call:
lm(formula = DECL ~ SGR + AGR + LAT + ATO + PM + BM + EP + CHATO +
CHPM, data = estset)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-1.70725 -0.68679 0.03179 0.38754 2.84780
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.103143 0.031102 3.316 0.000914 ***
SGR -0.016218 0.024978 -0.649 0.516165
AGR -0.165996 0.021847 -7.598 3.13e-14 ***
LAT 0.078580 0.003473 22.628 < 2e-16 ***
ATO -0.058326 0.007080 -8.238 < 2e-16 ***
PM -0.282853 0.041339 -6.842 8.00e-12 ***
BM 0.281935 0.018318 15.391 < 2e-16 ***
EP 0.914194 0.076301 11.981 < 2e-16 ***
CHATO 0.043741 0.019701 2.220 0.026408 *
CHPM -0.141874 0.071050 -1.997 0.045858 *
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Residual standard error: 0.773 on 21939 degrees of freedom
(17406 observations deleted due to missingness)
Multiple R-squared: 0.07745, Adjusted R-squared: 0.07707
F-statistic: 204.6 on 9 and 21939 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16Tesla estimated sales decline
[1] "0.9"Industry
Industry PM x ATO
| conm | PM | ATO |
|---|---|---|
Reference info
Identifiers
| ID name | ID |
|---|---|
| Ticker | TSLA |
| PERMNO | 93436 |
| CONM | TESLAINC |
| GVKEY | 184996 |
| CIK | 0001318605 |
| SIC | 3711 |
1 YR Sales growth model
Call:
lm(formula = SGR_ld1 ~ SGR + AGR + LAT + BM + EP, data = estset)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-1.24257 -0.09690 -0.02296 0.06091 2.24653
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.2551790 0.0069566 36.682 < 2e-16 ***
SGR 0.0593145 0.0057874 10.249 < 2e-16 ***
AGR 0.1943359 0.0052982 36.680 < 2e-16 ***
LAT -0.0163067 0.0008652 -18.848 < 2e-16 ***
BM -0.0266354 0.0041015 -6.494 8.47e-11 ***
EP -0.4290711 0.0157500 -27.243 < 2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Residual standard error: 0.2508 on 34880 degrees of freedom
(4469 observations deleted due to missingness)
Multiple R-squared: 0.123, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1229
F-statistic: 978.6 on 5 and 34880 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-163 YR Sales growth model
Call:
lm(formula = SGR_ld3 ~ SGR + AGR + LAT + BM + EP, data = estset)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.81322 -0.09587 -0.01915 0.06583 1.45243
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.2434764 0.0069552 35.006 < 2e-16 ***
SGR 0.0546241 0.0058968 9.263 < 2e-16 ***
AGR 0.0170862 0.0053652 3.185 0.00145 **
LAT -0.0194670 0.0008603 -22.629 < 2e-16 ***
BM 0.0072659 0.0042758 1.699 0.08927 .
EP -0.1545842 0.0165102 -9.363 < 2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Residual standard error: 0.2211 on 27590 degrees of freedom
(11759 observations deleted due to missingness)
Multiple R-squared: 0.03397, Adjusted R-squared: 0.0338
F-statistic: 194.1 on 5 and 27590 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-165 YR Sales growth model
Call:
lm(formula = SGR_ld5 ~ SGR + AGR + LAT + BM + EP, data = estset)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.66381 -0.08785 -0.01439 0.06474 1.19308
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.1994203 0.0071609 27.849 < 2e-16 ***
SGR 0.0226482 0.0061166 3.703 0.000214 ***
AGR 0.0199844 0.0056042 3.566 0.000363 ***
LAT -0.0151017 0.0008862 -17.041 < 2e-16 ***
BM 0.0029493 0.0046065 0.640 0.522021
EP -0.1372706 0.0179065 -7.666 1.85e-14 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Residual standard error: 0.203 on 21943 degrees of freedom
(17406 observations deleted due to missingness)
Multiple R-squared: 0.02296, Adjusted R-squared: 0.02274
F-statistic: 103.1 on 5 and 21943 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-161 YR asset growth model
Call:
lm(formula = AGR_ld1 ~ SGR + AGR + LAT + BM + EP, data = estset)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.85544 -0.12715 -0.04796 0.04791 2.09428
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.359504 0.007944 45.252 < 2e-16 ***
SGR 0.127873 0.006609 19.348 < 2e-16 ***
AGR 0.027276 0.006051 4.508 6.56e-06 ***
LAT -0.025859 0.000988 -26.172 < 2e-16 ***
BM -0.105567 0.004684 -22.538 < 2e-16 ***
EP -0.084706 0.017986 -4.709 2.49e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
Residual standard error: 0.2864 on 34880 degrees of freedom
(4469 observations deleted due to missingness)
Multiple R-squared: 0.06954, Adjusted R-squared: 0.06941
F-statistic: 521.4 on 5 and 34880 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16Variable descriptions
Here should probably be a list of all of the variables and their descriptions.