Portfólios Long & Short

L&S - Gráfico

L&S - Heterocedast. e Correl. Serial - 36_Anual

regres_36_anual <- lm(backtest_36_anual  ~ IBRX_Rf)
bptest(regres_36_anual)
## 
##  studentized Breusch-Pagan test
## 
## data:  regres_36_anual
## BP = 4.0176, df = 1, p-value = 0.04503
bgtest(regres_36_anual)
## 
##  Breusch-Godfrey test for serial correlation of order up to 1
## 
## data:  regres_36_anual
## LM test = 10.284, df = 1, p-value = 0.001342

L&S - Heterocedast. e Correl. Serial - 12_Anual

regres_12_anual <- lm(backtest_12_anual  ~ IBRX_Rf)
bptest(regres_12_anual)
## 
##  studentized Breusch-Pagan test
## 
## data:  regres_12_anual
## BP = 3.4086, df = 1, p-value = 0.06486
bgtest(regres_12_anual)
## 
##  Breusch-Godfrey test for serial correlation of order up to 1
## 
## data:  regres_12_anual
## LM test = 9.6707, df = 1, p-value = 0.001872

L&S - Heterocedast. e Correl. Serial - 36_Tri.

regres_36_tri <- lm(backtest_36_tri  ~ IBRX_Rf)
bptest(regres_36_tri)
## 
##  studentized Breusch-Pagan test
## 
## data:  regres_36_tri
## BP = 1.6156, df = 1, p-value = 0.2037
bgtest(regres_36_tri)
## 
##  Breusch-Godfrey test for serial correlation of order up to 1
## 
## data:  regres_36_tri
## LM test = 13.093, df = 1, p-value = 0.0002963

L&S - Heterocedast. e Correl. Serial - 12_Tri.

regres_12_tri <- lm(backtest_12_tri  ~ IBRX_Rf)
bptest(regres_12_tri)
## 
##  studentized Breusch-Pagan test
## 
## data:  regres_12_tri
## BP = 13.306, df = 1, p-value = 0.0002645
bgtest(regres_12_tri)
## 
##  Breusch-Godfrey test for serial correlation of order up to 1
## 
## data:  regres_12_tri
## LM test = 23.473, df = 1, p-value = 1.267e-06

L&S - Correção da Estat. de Teste - Anual

coeftest(regres_36_anual, vcov = vcovHAC)
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.00040998  0.00018256  2.2457   0.02481 *  
## IBRX_Rf     -0.13346059  0.01938991 -6.8830 7.403e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
coeftest(regres_12_anual, vcov = vcovHAC)
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.00026413  0.00018230  1.4489    0.1475    
## IBRX_Rf     -0.10417139  0.02406612 -4.3285 1.561e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

L&S - Correção da Estat. de Teste - Tri.

coeftest(regres_36_tri, vcov = vcovHAC)
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.00067127  0.00019846  3.3824 0.0007298 ***
## IBRX_Rf     -0.14020544  0.02204435 -6.3602 2.393e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
coeftest(regres_12_tri, vcov = vcovHAC)
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##                Estimate  Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.00061113  0.00019604  3.1174  0.001845 ** 
## IBRX_Rf     -0.14181798  0.02960408 -4.7905 1.762e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

L&S - Estat. dos retornos

36 - Anual 12 - Anual 36 - Tri. 12 - Tri. DI
Retorno Anual. 9.36% 5.55% 16.60% 14.84% 9.08%
Desvio-Padrão 14.36% 13.99% 15.39% 15.41% 0.20%
Alfa 10.88% 6.88% 18.42% 16.64% -
Beta -0.13 -0.1 -0.14 -0.14 -
Máx. Drawdown 36.51% 47.08% 22.91% 29.40% -
Drwadown Médio 3.19% 2.74% 3.42% 2.89% -

L&S - Modelo de três fatores de Fama & French

36 - Anual 12 - Anual 36 - Tri. 12 - Tri.
Alfa 10.37% 6.04% 18.36% 15.94%
p-valor (Alfa) 1.40% 17.00% 0.02% 0.18%
Beta -0.07*** -0.08*** -0.08*** -0.12***
Size -0.08* -0.13*** -0.01 -0.10**
Value -0.46*** -0.22*** -0.45*** -0.20***

Signif. codes: *** < 0.001; ** < 0.01; * < 0.05; . < 0.1; "" < 1

L&S - Modelo de quatro fatores de Cahart

36 - Anual 12 - Anual 36 - Tri. 12 - Tri.
Alfa 2.89% -2.71% 7.52% 2.90%
p-valor (Alfa) 42.79% 44.95% 6.86% 44.76%
Beta -0.07** -0.07*** -0.07* -0.11***
Size -0.03 -0.07* 0.06. -0.02
Value -0.30*** -0.02 -0.22*** 0.08**
Momentum 0.39*** 0.48*** 0.54*** 0.67***

Signif. codes: *** < 0.001; ** < 0.01; * < 0.05; . < 0.1; "" < 1

Portfólios Long Only

Long Only - Gráfico

Long Only - Correção da Estat. de Teste - Anual

coeftest(regres_36_anual, vcov = vcovHAC)
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.00026513 0.00012797  2.0719  0.03838 *  
## IBRX_Rf     0.87460173 0.02137962 40.9082  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
coeftest(regres_12_anual, vcov = vcovHAC)
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.00012787 0.00012193  1.0487   0.2944    
## IBRX_Rf     0.89480235 0.02809849 31.8452   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Long Only - Correção da Estat. de Teste - Tri.

coeftest(regres_36_tri, vcov = vcovHAC)
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##               Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.00038765 0.00013075  2.9649  0.003057 ** 
## IBRX_Rf     0.88241764 0.01892254 46.6331 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
coeftest(regres_12_tri, vcov = vcovHAC)
## 
## t test of coefficients:
## 
##               Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 0.00036558 0.00011907  3.0704  0.002161 ** 
## IBRX_Rf     0.87890713 0.03118834 28.1806 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Long Only - Estat. dos retornos

36 - Anual 12 - Anual 36 - Tri. 12 - Tri. IBRX
Retorno Anual. 16.05% 12.06% 19.65% 19.03% 8.69%
Desvio-Padrão 23.34% 23.73% 23.56% 23.36% 24.24%
Alfa 6.91% 3.27% 10.26% 9.65% 0
Beta 0.87 0.89 0.88 0.88 1
Máx. Drawdown 47.25% 47.68% 47.25% 47.68% 46.73%
Drwadown Médio 3.31% 4.35% 3.06% 3.19% 4.37%

Long Only - Modelo de três fatores de Fama & French

36 - Anual 12 - Anual 36 - Tri. 12 - Tri.
Alfa 8.74% 4.90% 12.35% 11.38%
p-valor (Alfa) 0.33% 8.91% 0.00% 0.01%
Beta 0.92*** 0.92*** 0.93*** 0.91***
Size 0.29*** 0.26*** 0.32*** 0.26***
Value -0.25*** -0.14*** -0.25*** -0.13***

Signif. codes: *** < 0.001; ** < 0.01; * < 0.05; . < 0.1; "" < 1

Long Only - Modelo de quatro fatores de Cahart

36 - Anual 12 - Anual 36 - Tri. 12 - Tri.
Alfa 5.98% 1.72% 8.31% 6.36%
p-valor (Alfa) 3.39% 52.69% 0.28% 1.57%
Beta 0.92*** 0.93*** 0.93*** 0.91***
Size 0.30*** 0.28*** 0.34*** 0.30***
Value -0.19*** -0.07** -0.17*** -0.03
Momentum 0.14*** 0.17*** 0.21*** 0.26***

Signif. codes: *** < 0.001; ** < 0.01; * < 0.05; . < 0.1; "" < 1