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Profile for Ethiopia

Recent evolution of relevant indicators, including but not limited to SDG2

Ethiopia is a landlocked country in Eastern Africa, with a population of approximately 112 million people in 2019. The country has a tropical climate with high variation based on topography. Elevation is high, ranging from 1290-3000m. Agriculture accounts for the majority of employment in the Ethiopian economy, employing over 67% of the labor force and representing over 34% of GDP. So, agricultural is highly inefficient in generating income: value added per worker in agriculture is about 0.25 of what prevails in the rest of the Ethiopian economy.

Poverty is lower in Ethiopia than in Africa South of the Sahara on average (31% versus 42% in 2016, World Bank, Development Research Group 2021). The prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) is similar to the average in the region: in 2018, the prevalence undernourishment was 20% in Ethiopia versus an average of 18% in Africa South of the Sahara (FAO 2021). Food insecurity is slightly lower than average for the region, with 14% of the population experiencing severe food insecurity in 2018 versus 21% on average in Africa South of the Sahara for the same year (FAO 2021). Poverty and food security indicators for Ethiopia are shown in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Prevalence of Poverty and Hunger in Ethiopia

Figure 1. Prevalence of Poverty and Hunger

Figure 1. Prevalence of Poverty and Hunger

Sources: Poverty is poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 per day (2011 PPP) (% of population), from PovcalNet via World Bank Open Data (World Bank, Development Research Group 2021). Undernourishment is the prevalence of undernourishment (percent) from FAOSTAT (FAO 2021). Severe Food Insecurity is the prevalence of severe food insecurity in the total population (percent) from FAOSTAT (FAO 2021).

Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly in the agriculture and water sector. With approximately 98% of all cultivated land in the country under rain-fed agricultural production, the agricultural sector is very sensitive to climate change and weather variability (see Section 3).

Baseline results regarding a Business-as-Usual situation based on modelling results

Existing projections, based on the Ceres2030 model, and without considering additional investments are summarized in Table 1. As we see, Ethiopia remains one of the country with the strongest demographic pressure, with an annual population growth rate of about xx% in the next decade. Because of the low GDP per capita in the country, even with the relatively strong economic growth projected at xx% per year, the GDP per capita income will remain among the lowest in the world.

To be added base on GDX

The agricultural sector will continue to develop to answer the increase in local food demand, in particular in animal products. This will lead to a significant increase in production emissions, by 4.4%. Land use change from forestry to agriculture will continue to grow leading to a reduction in forested area by about 10% in the next 10 years. Both trends show the need to take important measures, in particular in terms of sustainable intensification to allow the country to achieve its environmental objectives. Finally, the economic growth and the expansion of agricultural production will contribute to a consistent trend in the reduction of chronic hunger and extreme poverty. While eliminating the former appears to be within reach, as shown in the Ceres2030 project, the poverty level will remain extremely high even in 2030.

ODA profile

Core contents

In total, 1,377.8 million constant 2018 USD was disbursed to projects directly affecting the food system in Ethiopia on average annually from 2014-2018, accounting for 50% of ODA grants and philanthropic donations (OECD 2021). The United States accounted for 36% of this disbursement, making it the top donor to projects in the food system, followed by the United Kingdom and EU Institutions. The top 10 donors account for 1217 million constant 2018 USD (Table 6).

Table 6 – Top 10 Donors by Average Annual Disbursement, 2014-2018
Donor Average Annual ODA (million constant 2018 USD)
United States 492
United Kingdom 222
EU Institutions 159
Canada 81
Germany 72
Netherlands 50
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation 40
Sweden 36
Norway 36
Japan 28

Appendix - Nutrition indicators

In terms of specific groups of population, 7 percent of children under 5 are affected by wasting and 37 percent are affected by stunting. While wasting rates have remained variable over the last decade, stunting has decreased on average, from 44 percent in 2011 to 37 percent in 2019. Anemia affects one in 4 women of reproductive age, slightly lower than the average for Africa South of the Sahara. Prevalence of obesity is very low in the country (3 percent in 2008 versus 5 percent in 2016, FAO 2021). In other countries, overnutrition has often risen with economic development leading to a double burden of malnutrition and overnutrition (WHO 2017). Ethiopia might avoid the double burden by adopting policies to promote diets that are both sufficient and healthy.

Additional materials

Overall picture for Food security relevant spendings.

Or a treemap version - to get the big picture

By navigating the overall ODA allocation through a treemap surface:

MAlawi highly depends on ODA grants to support its agricultural programs:

Or how the support to has evolved overtime: