The USA Covid 19 epidemic concludes.

Note how spurious headline deaths (JHU used below) are in comparison to smoothed headline daily deaths and NCHS/CDC excess mortality disaggregated to daily.

There never was a second or third surge. There were three geographies of the NE (in the main NY), Florida and SE, then California.

A major focus in Covid 19 reporting and analysis was hospitalizations which in the main was from the Atlantic Monthly COVID Tracking Project. In hindsight it is obvious that the data was fabricated or erroneously derived from positive test results, or cases.

That the COVID Tracking Project started this data series a month before the November election was very convenient for the Biden election campaign.

Since the beginning of the epidemic the CDC established a statitically relevant nation wide hopsitalization survelliance system called COVID-NET. This depicted the reality of Covid hospitalizations.

The COVID-NET system depicts the triage of the elderly in the NE/NY which resulted in low hospitalizations, then the growth of hopsitalization as Covid 19 hit the west

At some point the COVID Tracking Project should be held accountable for this falsehood but this does not seem likely. The COVID Tracking Project was an incredible con.

The COVID Tracking Project implied severity of cases currently hospitalized is 60%.

Consensus on cases hospitalization rate (CHR) is 4%. The LoS (lenght of stay) hospitalized would have to be 60/4, or 15 days to calibrate to the COVID Tracking Project 60% CHR.

Consensus severity for CHR LoS is 5 days. The COVID Tracking Project hopsitalization data is 3 times to 4 times over stated. While this might be naive, it is so large and appears just before the November election it suggests a politically motivated fabrication.

Headline deaths (CTP,JHU and NYT) were overstated since October when compared to excess deaths (CDC/NCHS) and state reported deaths.

Until the end of Jan 2021 headline deaths were the implied deaths from cases (JHU) assuming a 1.2% case fatality rate (CFR).

During January ,to February 2021, headline daily deaths seem fabricated.

Excess deaths turned down from the 2nd to 3rd week of December. This implies the third and final phase of US Covid occurred a month plus prior to the headlines.

Since normalized daily deaths using excess deaths peaked at 4 and turned down (with 4 sigma being 95% of the daily deaths rate) the epidemic is over.

USing CDC Excess Mortality deaths and a IFR of .5%, over 35% of the US has been cumulatively infected.

Using headline reported deaths, about 33% of the US has been cumulatively infected.

Headline case data has less than 10% of the US cunulative infected showing how case data is risible.

The above percentage of the US infected is plotted against the deaths, both actual and normalized.

As normalized data is units of sigma, or one standard deviation, 4 sigma, if the deaths have a normal or regular distribution will cover 95% of the past death rates. Therefore a 4 sigma indicates the end of that phase of deaths.

The US is clearly past the 4 sigma peak indicating the end of the Covid epidemic.

Over 600,000 CDC cumulative excess deaths during the epidemic, and over 550,000 reported cumulative deaths.

A super majority of the dead were elderly.

Covid 19 is strangely near benign for the young.

SIR models Using CDC/NCHS excess deaths and headline daily deaths (JHu) to derive active “Infections” and thereby “Susceptible” and “Resolved”.

The R(0) is given from both death series.

The general perception of how Covid 19 has progressed is not reality as the epidemic reality. The epidemic was fierce in March to April then having two phases, first in August as F_lorida and A_rizona peaked, then in November to January as the Upper Midwest, Eastern Rockies, and now concluding with Cal_ifornia.

A 40% sUSceptible is used to build the SIR models.