South ural state university, Chelyabinsk, Russian federation
#Import
library(fpp2)
## Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
## method from
## as.zoo.data.frame zoo
## -- Attaching packages ---------------------------------------------- fpp2 2.4 --
## v ggplot2 3.3.2 v fma 2.4
## v forecast 8.13 v expsmooth 2.3
##
library(forecast)
library(ggplot2)
library("readxl")
library(moments)
library(forecast)
require(forecast)
require(tseries)
## Loading required package: tseries
require(markovchain)
## Loading required package: markovchain
## Package: markovchain
## Version: 0.8.5-3
## Date: 2020-12-03
## BugReport: https://github.com/spedygiorgio/markovchain/issues
require(data.table)
## Loading required package: data.table
library(Hmisc)
## Loading required package: lattice
## Loading required package: survival
## Loading required package: Formula
##
## Attaching package: 'Hmisc'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
##
## format.pval, units
library(ascii)
library(pander)
##
## Attaching package: 'pander'
## The following object is masked from 'package:ascii':
##
## Pandoc
##Global vriable##
Full_original_data <- read.csv("data.csv") # path of your data ( time series data)
original_data<-Full_original_data$daily.infection
y_lab <- "Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk" # input name of data
Actual_date_interval <- c("2020/03/12","2021/04/09")
Forecast_date_interval <- c("2021/04/10","2021/07/30")
validation_data_days <-30
frequency<-"day"
Number_Neural<-5 # Number of Neural For model NNAR Model
NNAR_Model<- FALSE #create new model (TRUE/FALSE)
frequency<-"days"
Population <-1130319 # population in England for SIR Model
country.name <- "Chelyabinsk"
# Data Preparation & calculate some of statistics measures
summary(original_data) # Summary your time series
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 0.0 71.0 130.0 143.4 217.2 317.0
# calculate standard deviation
data.frame(kurtosis=kurtosis(original_data)) # calculate Cofficient of kurtosis
## kurtosis
## 1 2.065293
data.frame(skewness=skewness(original_data)) # calculate Cofficient of skewness
## skewness
## 1 0.3784112
data.frame(Standard.deviation =sd(original_data))
## Standard.deviation
## 1 94.52591
#processing on data (input data)
rows <- NROW(original_data) # calculate number of rows in time series (number of days)
training_data<-original_data[1:(rows-validation_data_days)] # Training data
testing_data<-original_data[(rows-validation_data_days+1):rows] #testing data
AD<-fulldate<-seq(as.Date(Actual_date_interval[1]),as.Date(Actual_date_interval[2]), frequency) #input range for actual date
FD<-seq(as.Date(Forecast_date_interval[1]),as.Date(Forecast_date_interval[2]), frequency) #input range forecasting date
N_forecasting_days<-nrow(data.frame(FD)) #calculate number of days that you want to forecasting
validation_dates<-tail(AD,validation_data_days) # select validation_dates
validation_data_by_name<-weekdays(validation_dates) # put names of validation dates
forecasting_data_by_name<-weekdays(FD) # put names of Forecasting dates
#NNAR Model
if(NNAR_Model==TRUE){
data_series<-ts(training_data)
model_NNAR<-nnetar(data_series, size = Number_Neural)
saveRDS(model_NNAR, file = "model_NNAR.RDS")
my_model <- readRDS("model_NNAR.RDS")
accuracy(model_NNAR) # accuracy on training data #Print Model Parameters
model_NNAR
}
if(NNAR_Model==FALSE){
data_series<-ts(training_data)
#model_NNAR<-nnetar(data_series, size = Number_Numeral)
model_NNAR <- readRDS("model_NNAR.RDS")
accuracy(model_NNAR) # accuracy on training data #Print Model Parameters
model_NNAR
}
## Series: data_series
## Model: NNAR(6,5)
## Call: nnetar(y = data_series, size = Number_Neural)
##
## Average of 20 networks, each of which is
## a 6-5-1 network with 41 weights
## options were - linear output units
##
## sigma^2 estimated as 70.96
# Testing Data Evaluation
forecasting_NNAR <- forecast(model_NNAR, h=N_forecasting_days+validation_data_days)
validation_forecast<-head(forecasting_NNAR$mean,validation_data_days)
MAPE_Per_Day<-round( abs(((testing_data-validation_forecast)/testing_data)*100) ,3)
paste ("MAPE % For ",validation_data_days,frequency,"by using NNAR Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE % For 30 days by using NNAR Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
MAPE_Mean_All<-paste(round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3),"% MAPE ",validation_data_days,frequency,y_lab,sep=" ")
MAPE_Mean_All_NNAR<-round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3)
MAPE_NNAR<-paste(round(MAPE_Per_Day,3),"%")
MAPE_NNAR_Model<-paste(MAPE_Per_Day ,"%")
paste (" MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for ",validation_data_days," days in NNAR Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] " MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for 30 days in NNAR Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
paste(MAPE_Mean_All,"%")
## [1] "6.984 % MAPE 30 days Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk %"
paste ("MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for ",validation_data_days," days in NNAR Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for 30 days in NNAR Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(date_NNAR=validation_dates,validation_data_by_name,actual_data=testing_data,forecasting_NNAR=validation_forecast,MAPE_NNAR_Model)), type = "rest")
##
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | | date_NNAR | validation_data_by_name | actual_data | forecasting_NNAR | MAPE_NNAR_Model |
## +====+============+=========================+=============+==================+=================+
## | 1 | 2021-03-11 | Thursday | 145.00 | 147.14 | 1.476 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 2 | 2021-03-12 | Friday | 142.00 | 145.90 | 2.746 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 3 | 2021-03-13 | Saturday | 141.00 | 144.82 | 2.708 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 4 | 2021-03-14 | Sunday | 139.00 | 144.42 | 3.898 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 5 | 2021-03-15 | Monday | 138.00 | 143.41 | 3.922 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 6 | 2021-03-16 | Tuesday | 140.00 | 142.90 | 2.075 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 7 | 2021-03-17 | Wednesday | 137.00 | 142.46 | 3.983 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 8 | 2021-03-18 | Thursday | 136.00 | 142.15 | 4.523 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 9 | 2021-03-19 | Friday | 138.00 | 142.06 | 2.945 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 10 | 2021-03-20 | Saturday | 141.00 | 141.79 | 0.559 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 11 | 2021-03-21 | Sunday | 140.00 | 141.70 | 1.216 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 12 | 2021-03-22 | Monday | 139.00 | 141.58 | 1.856 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 13 | 2021-03-23 | Tuesday | 138.00 | 141.54 | 2.565 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 14 | 2021-03-24 | Wednesday | 137.00 | 141.56 | 3.328 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 15 | 2021-03-25 | Thursday | 136.00 | 141.53 | 4.064 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 16 | 2021-03-26 | Friday | 135.00 | 141.57 | 4.863 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 17 | 2021-03-27 | Saturday | 136.00 | 141.58 | 4.1 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 18 | 2021-03-28 | Sunday | 135.00 | 141.63 | 4.909 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 19 | 2021-03-29 | Monday | 134.00 | 141.69 | 5.741 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 20 | 2021-03-30 | Tuesday | 133.00 | 141.75 | 6.579 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 21 | 2021-03-31 | Wednesday | 131.00 | 141.83 | 8.27 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 22 | 2021-04-01 | Thursday | 130.00 | 141.91 | 9.159 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 23 | 2021-04-02 | Friday | 129.00 | 142.00 | 10.078 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 24 | 2021-04-03 | Saturday | 128.00 | 142.10 | 11.015 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 25 | 2021-04-04 | Sunday | 125.00 | 142.20 | 13.76 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 26 | 2021-04-05 | Monday | 123.00 | 142.31 | 15.702 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 27 | 2021-04-06 | Tuesday | 122.00 | 142.43 | 16.743 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 28 | 2021-04-07 | Wednesday | 121.00 | 142.55 | 17.812 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 29 | 2021-04-08 | Thursday | 120.00 | 142.68 | 18.902 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 30 | 2021-04-09 | Friday | 119.00 | 142.82 | 20.016 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_NNAR=tail(forecasting_NNAR$mean,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_NNAR |
## +=====+============+=================+=====================+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 142.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 143.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 143.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 143.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 143.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 143.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 143.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 144.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 144.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 144.63 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 144.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 145.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 145.37 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 145.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 145.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 146.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 146.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 146.88 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 147.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 147.60 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 147.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 148.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 148.83 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 149.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 149.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 150.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 150.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 151.37 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 151.97 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 152.60 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 153.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 154.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 154.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 155.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 156.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 157.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 158.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 159.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 160.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 162.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 163.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 165.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 167.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 169.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 171.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 174.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 177.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 181.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 185.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 190.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 195.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 200.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 206.35 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 212.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 218.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | 225.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | 232.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | 239.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | 247.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | 255.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | 263.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | 270.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | 278.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | 284.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | 290.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | 295.79 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | 300.36 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | 304.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | 307.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | 309.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | 311.38 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | 312.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | 312.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | 312.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | 311.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | 310.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | 308.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | 306.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | 303.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | 299.83 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | 295.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | 291.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | 286.36 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | 280.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | 273.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | 264.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | 253.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | 239.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | 221.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | 202.63 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | 183.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | 166.16 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | 154.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | 148.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | 143.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | 136.88 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | 133.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | 131.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | 130.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | 129.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | 128.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | 127.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | 126.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | 125.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | 125.48 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | 124.86 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | 124.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | 123.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | 123.25 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | 122.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | 122.25 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | 121.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
plot(forecasting_NNAR,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
x1_test <- ts(testing_data, start =(rows-validation_data_days+1) )
lines(x1_test, col='red',lwd=2)
graph1<-autoplot(forecasting_NNAR,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
graph1
##bats model
# Data Modeling
data_series<-ts(training_data) # make your data to time series
autoplot(data_series ,xlab=paste ("Time in", frequency, sep=" "), ylab = y_lab, main=paste ("Actual Data :", y_lab, sep=" "))
model_bats<-bats(data_series)
accuracy(model_bats) # accuracy on training data
## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
## Training set 0.5123292 11.7685 6.817079 -Inf Inf 1.023831 -0.004398545
# Print Model Parameters
model_bats
## BATS(1, {0,0}, -, -)
##
## Call: bats(y = data_series)
##
## Parameters
## Alpha: 0.793167
##
## Seed States:
## [,1]
## [1,] 1.782241
##
## Sigma: 11.7685
## AIC: 3945.395
#ploting BATS Model
plot(model_bats,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "))
# Testing Data Evaluation
forecasting_bats <- predict(model_bats, h=N_forecasting_days+validation_data_days)
validation_forecast<-head(forecasting_bats$mean,validation_data_days)
MAPE_Per_Day<-round( abs(((testing_data-validation_forecast)/testing_data)*100) ,3)
paste ("MAPE % For ",validation_data_days,frequency,"by using bats Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE % For 30 days by using bats Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
MAPE_Mean_All.bats_Model<-round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3)
MAPE_Mean_All.bats<-paste(round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3),"% MAPE ",validation_data_days,frequency,y_lab,sep=" ")
MAPE_bats<-paste(round(MAPE_Per_Day,3),"%")
MAPE_bats_Model<-paste(MAPE_Per_Day ,"%")
paste (" MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for ",validation_data_days," days in bats Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] " MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for 30 days in bats Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
paste(MAPE_Mean_All.bats,"%")
## [1] "12.378 % MAPE 30 days Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk %"
paste ("MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for ",validation_data_days," days in bats Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for 30 days in bats Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(date_bats=validation_dates,validation_data_by_name,actual_data=testing_data,forecasting_bats=validation_forecast,MAPE_bats_Model)), type = "rest")
##
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | | date_bats | validation_data_by_name | actual_data | forecasting_bats | MAPE_bats_Model |
## +====+============+=========================+=============+==================+=================+
## | 1 | 2021-03-11 | Thursday | 145.00 | 149.70 | 3.24 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 2 | 2021-03-12 | Friday | 142.00 | 149.70 | 5.421 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 3 | 2021-03-13 | Saturday | 141.00 | 149.70 | 6.169 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 4 | 2021-03-14 | Sunday | 139.00 | 149.70 | 7.697 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 5 | 2021-03-15 | Monday | 138.00 | 149.70 | 8.477 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 6 | 2021-03-16 | Tuesday | 140.00 | 149.70 | 6.927 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 7 | 2021-03-17 | Wednesday | 137.00 | 149.70 | 9.269 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 8 | 2021-03-18 | Thursday | 136.00 | 149.70 | 10.072 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 9 | 2021-03-19 | Friday | 138.00 | 149.70 | 8.477 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 10 | 2021-03-20 | Saturday | 141.00 | 149.70 | 6.169 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 11 | 2021-03-21 | Sunday | 140.00 | 149.70 | 6.927 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 12 | 2021-03-22 | Monday | 139.00 | 149.70 | 7.697 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 13 | 2021-03-23 | Tuesday | 138.00 | 149.70 | 8.477 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 14 | 2021-03-24 | Wednesday | 137.00 | 149.70 | 9.269 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 15 | 2021-03-25 | Thursday | 136.00 | 149.70 | 10.072 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 16 | 2021-03-26 | Friday | 135.00 | 149.70 | 10.888 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 17 | 2021-03-27 | Saturday | 136.00 | 149.70 | 10.072 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 18 | 2021-03-28 | Sunday | 135.00 | 149.70 | 10.888 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 19 | 2021-03-29 | Monday | 134.00 | 149.70 | 11.715 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 20 | 2021-03-30 | Tuesday | 133.00 | 149.70 | 12.555 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 21 | 2021-03-31 | Wednesday | 131.00 | 149.70 | 14.273 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 22 | 2021-04-01 | Thursday | 130.00 | 149.70 | 15.152 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 23 | 2021-04-02 | Friday | 129.00 | 149.70 | 16.045 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 24 | 2021-04-03 | Saturday | 128.00 | 149.70 | 16.952 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 25 | 2021-04-04 | Sunday | 125.00 | 149.70 | 19.759 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 26 | 2021-04-05 | Monday | 123.00 | 149.70 | 21.706 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 27 | 2021-04-06 | Tuesday | 122.00 | 149.70 | 22.703 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 28 | 2021-04-07 | Wednesday | 121.00 | 149.70 | 23.718 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 29 | 2021-04-08 | Thursday | 120.00 | 149.70 | 24.749 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 30 | 2021-04-09 | Friday | 119.00 | 149.70 | 25.797 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_bats=tail(forecasting_bats$mean,N_forecasting_days),lower=tail(forecasting_bats$lower,N_forecasting_days),Upper=tail(forecasting_bats$lower,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_bats | lower.80. | lower.95. | Upper.80. | Upper.95. |
## +=====+============+=================+=====================+===========+===========+===========+===========+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 149.70 | 82.46 | 46.87 | 82.46 | 46.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 149.70 | 81.41 | 45.26 | 81.41 | 45.26 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 149.70 | 80.37 | 43.67 | 80.37 | 43.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 79.34 | 42.10 | 79.34 | 42.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 78.33 | 40.56 | 78.33 | 40.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 149.70 | 77.34 | 39.03 | 77.34 | 39.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 149.70 | 76.36 | 37.53 | 76.36 | 37.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 149.70 | 75.39 | 36.05 | 75.39 | 36.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 149.70 | 74.43 | 34.59 | 74.43 | 34.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 149.70 | 73.49 | 33.14 | 73.49 | 33.14 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 72.55 | 31.71 | 72.55 | 31.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 71.63 | 30.30 | 71.63 | 30.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 149.70 | 70.72 | 28.91 | 70.72 | 28.91 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 149.70 | 69.82 | 27.53 | 69.82 | 27.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 149.70 | 68.93 | 26.17 | 68.93 | 26.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 149.70 | 68.05 | 24.82 | 68.05 | 24.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 149.70 | 67.17 | 23.49 | 67.17 | 23.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 66.31 | 22.17 | 66.31 | 22.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 65.46 | 20.86 | 65.46 | 20.86 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 149.70 | 64.61 | 19.57 | 64.61 | 19.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 149.70 | 63.78 | 18.29 | 63.78 | 18.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 149.70 | 62.95 | 17.02 | 62.95 | 17.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 149.70 | 62.13 | 15.77 | 62.13 | 15.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 149.70 | 61.31 | 14.53 | 61.31 | 14.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 60.51 | 13.29 | 60.51 | 13.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 59.71 | 12.07 | 59.71 | 12.07 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 149.70 | 58.92 | 10.86 | 58.92 | 10.86 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 149.70 | 58.13 | 9.66 | 58.13 | 9.66 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 149.70 | 57.35 | 8.47 | 57.35 | 8.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 149.70 | 56.58 | 7.29 | 56.58 | 7.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 149.70 | 55.82 | 6.12 | 55.82 | 6.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 55.06 | 4.96 | 55.06 | 4.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 54.31 | 3.81 | 54.31 | 3.81 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 149.70 | 53.56 | 2.67 | 53.56 | 2.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 149.70 | 52.82 | 1.53 | 52.82 | 1.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 149.70 | 52.08 | 0.41 | 52.08 | 0.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 149.70 | 51.35 | -0.71 | 51.35 | -0.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 149.70 | 50.63 | -1.82 | 50.63 | -1.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 49.91 | -2.92 | 49.91 | -2.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 49.19 | -4.01 | 49.19 | -4.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 149.70 | 48.48 | -5.10 | 48.48 | -5.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 149.70 | 47.78 | -6.17 | 47.78 | -6.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 149.70 | 47.08 | -7.24 | 47.08 | -7.24 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 149.70 | 46.38 | -8.31 | 46.38 | -8.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 149.70 | 45.69 | -9.36 | 45.69 | -9.36 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 45.01 | -10.41 | 45.01 | -10.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 44.33 | -11.45 | 44.33 | -11.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 149.70 | 43.65 | -12.49 | 43.65 | -12.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 149.70 | 42.98 | -13.52 | 42.98 | -13.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 149.70 | 42.31 | -14.54 | 42.31 | -14.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 149.70 | 41.64 | -15.56 | 41.64 | -15.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 149.70 | 40.98 | -16.57 | 40.98 | -16.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 40.33 | -17.57 | 40.33 | -17.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 39.68 | -18.57 | 39.68 | -18.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 149.70 | 39.03 | -19.56 | 39.03 | -19.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | 149.70 | 38.38 | -20.54 | 38.38 | -20.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | 149.70 | 37.74 | -21.52 | 37.74 | -21.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | 149.70 | 37.10 | -22.50 | 37.10 | -22.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | 149.70 | 36.47 | -23.47 | 36.47 | -23.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 35.84 | -24.43 | 35.84 | -24.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 35.21 | -25.39 | 35.21 | -25.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | 149.70 | 34.59 | -26.34 | 34.59 | -26.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | 149.70 | 33.97 | -27.29 | 33.97 | -27.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | 149.70 | 33.35 | -28.23 | 33.35 | -28.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | 149.70 | 32.74 | -29.17 | 32.74 | -29.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | 149.70 | 32.13 | -30.11 | 32.13 | -30.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 31.52 | -31.03 | 31.52 | -31.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 30.92 | -31.96 | 30.92 | -31.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | 149.70 | 30.32 | -32.88 | 30.32 | -32.88 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | 149.70 | 29.72 | -33.79 | 29.72 | -33.79 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | 149.70 | 29.13 | -34.70 | 29.13 | -34.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | 149.70 | 28.53 | -35.61 | 28.53 | -35.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | 149.70 | 27.95 | -36.51 | 27.95 | -36.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 27.36 | -37.40 | 27.36 | -37.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 26.78 | -38.30 | 26.78 | -38.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | 149.70 | 26.19 | -39.18 | 26.19 | -39.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | 149.70 | 25.62 | -40.07 | 25.62 | -40.07 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | 149.70 | 25.04 | -40.95 | 25.04 | -40.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | 149.70 | 24.47 | -41.82 | 24.47 | -41.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | 149.70 | 23.90 | -42.70 | 23.90 | -42.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 23.33 | -43.56 | 23.33 | -43.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 22.77 | -44.43 | 22.77 | -44.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | 149.70 | 22.20 | -45.29 | 22.20 | -45.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | 149.70 | 21.64 | -46.14 | 21.64 | -46.14 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | 149.70 | 21.09 | -47.00 | 21.09 | -47.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | 149.70 | 20.53 | -47.85 | 20.53 | -47.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | 149.70 | 19.98 | -48.69 | 19.98 | -48.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 19.43 | -49.53 | 19.43 | -49.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 18.88 | -50.37 | 18.88 | -50.37 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | 149.70 | 18.33 | -51.21 | 18.33 | -51.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | 149.70 | 17.79 | -52.04 | 17.79 | -52.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | 149.70 | 17.25 | -52.87 | 17.25 | -52.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | 149.70 | 16.71 | -53.69 | 16.71 | -53.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | 149.70 | 16.17 | -54.51 | 16.17 | -54.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 15.64 | -55.33 | 15.64 | -55.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 15.11 | -56.14 | 15.11 | -56.14 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | 149.70 | 14.58 | -56.95 | 14.58 | -56.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | 149.70 | 14.05 | -57.76 | 14.05 | -57.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | 149.70 | 13.52 | -58.57 | 13.52 | -58.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | 149.70 | 13.00 | -59.37 | 13.00 | -59.37 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | 149.70 | 12.47 | -60.17 | 12.47 | -60.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 11.95 | -60.96 | 11.95 | -60.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 11.43 | -61.76 | 11.43 | -61.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | 149.70 | 10.92 | -62.55 | 10.92 | -62.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | 149.70 | 10.40 | -63.33 | 10.40 | -63.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | 149.70 | 9.89 | -64.12 | 9.89 | -64.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | 149.70 | 9.38 | -64.90 | 9.38 | -64.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | 149.70 | 8.87 | -65.68 | 8.87 | -65.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 8.36 | -66.45 | 8.36 | -66.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 7.86 | -67.23 | 7.86 | -67.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | 149.70 | 7.35 | -68.00 | 7.35 | -68.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | 149.70 | 6.85 | -68.76 | 6.85 | -68.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
plot(forecasting_bats)
x1_test <- ts(testing_data, start =(rows-validation_data_days+1) )
lines(x1_test, col='red',lwd=2)
graph1<-autoplot(forecasting_bats,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
graph1
## TBATS Model
# Data Modeling
data_series<-ts(training_data)
model_TBATS<-forecast:::fitSpecificTBATS(data_series,use.box.cox=FALSE, use.beta=TRUE, seasonal.periods=c(6),use.damping=FALSE,k.vector=c(2))
accuracy(model_TBATS) # accuracy on training data
## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
## Training set -0.3531564 11.60554 6.867882 NaN Inf 1.031461 0.008928272
# Print Model Parameters
model_TBATS
## TBATS(1, {0,0}, 1, {<6,2>})
##
## Call: NULL
##
## Parameters
## Alpha: 0.7567703
## Beta: 0.02411809
## Damping Parameter: 1
## Gamma-1 Values: -0.002404087
## Gamma-2 Values: 0.002106772
##
## Seed States:
## [,1]
## [1,] -6.7642380
## [2,] 0.3590139
## [3,] 1.3948142
## [4,] -0.5107553
## [5,] 0.1743808
## [6,] 0.8295535
##
## Sigma: 11.60554
## AIC: 3951.243
plot(model_TBATS,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
# Testing Data Evaluation
forecasting_tbats <- predict(model_TBATS, h=N_forecasting_days+validation_data_days)
validation_forecast<-head(forecasting_tbats$mean,validation_data_days)
MAPE_Per_Day<-round( abs(((testing_data-validation_forecast)/testing_data)*100) ,3)
paste ("MAPE % For ",validation_data_days,frequency,"by using TBATS Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE % For 30 days by using TBATS Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
MAPE_Mean_All.TBATS_Model<-round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3)
MAPE_Mean_All.TBATS<-paste(round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3),"% MAPE ",validation_data_days,frequency,y_lab,sep=" ")
MAPE_TBATS<-paste(round(MAPE_Per_Day,3),"%")
MAPE_TBATS_Model<-paste(MAPE_Per_Day ,"%")
paste (" MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for ",validation_data_days," days in TBATS Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] " MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for 30 days in TBATS Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
paste(MAPE_Mean_All.TBATS,"%")
## [1] "20.391 % MAPE 30 days Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk %"
paste ("MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for ",validation_data_days," days in TBATS Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for 30 days in TBATS Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(date_TBATS=validation_dates,validation_data_by_name,actual_data=testing_data,forecasting_TBATS=validation_forecast,MAPE_TBATS_Model)), type = "rest")
##
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | | date_TBATS | validation_data_by_name | actual_data | forecasting_TBATS | MAPE_TBATS_Model |
## +====+============+=========================+=============+===================+==================+
## | 1 | 2021-03-11 | Thursday | 145.00 | 147.84 | 1.957 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 2 | 2021-03-12 | Friday | 142.00 | 144.36 | 1.663 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 3 | 2021-03-13 | Saturday | 141.00 | 143.01 | 1.423 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 4 | 2021-03-14 | Sunday | 139.00 | 141.70 | 1.944 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 5 | 2021-03-15 | Monday | 138.00 | 135.59 | 1.744 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 6 | 2021-03-16 | Tuesday | 140.00 | 132.15 | 5.607 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 7 | 2021-03-17 | Wednesday | 137.00 | 131.39 | 4.095 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 8 | 2021-03-18 | Thursday | 136.00 | 127.91 | 5.946 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 9 | 2021-03-19 | Friday | 138.00 | 126.56 | 8.291 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 10 | 2021-03-20 | Saturday | 141.00 | 125.25 | 11.167 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 11 | 2021-03-21 | Sunday | 140.00 | 119.15 | 14.896 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 12 | 2021-03-22 | Monday | 139.00 | 115.70 | 16.761 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 13 | 2021-03-23 | Tuesday | 138.00 | 114.94 | 16.709 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 14 | 2021-03-24 | Wednesday | 137.00 | 111.47 | 18.638 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 15 | 2021-03-25 | Thursday | 136.00 | 110.11 | 19.036 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 16 | 2021-03-26 | Friday | 135.00 | 108.81 | 19.402 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 17 | 2021-03-27 | Saturday | 136.00 | 102.70 | 24.487 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 18 | 2021-03-28 | Sunday | 135.00 | 99.25 | 26.479 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 19 | 2021-03-29 | Monday | 134.00 | 98.49 | 26.497 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 20 | 2021-03-30 | Tuesday | 133.00 | 95.02 | 28.558 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 21 | 2021-03-31 | Wednesday | 131.00 | 93.66 | 28.502 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 22 | 2021-04-01 | Thursday | 130.00 | 92.36 | 28.955 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 23 | 2021-04-02 | Friday | 129.00 | 86.25 | 33.14 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 24 | 2021-04-03 | Saturday | 128.00 | 82.81 | 35.308 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 25 | 2021-04-04 | Sunday | 125.00 | 82.05 | 34.363 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 26 | 2021-04-05 | Monday | 123.00 | 78.57 | 36.122 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 27 | 2021-04-06 | Tuesday | 122.00 | 77.21 | 36.709 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 28 | 2021-04-07 | Wednesday | 121.00 | 75.91 | 37.264 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 29 | 2021-04-08 | Thursday | 120.00 | 69.80 | 41.832 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
## | 30 | 2021-04-09 | Friday | 119.00 | 66.36 | 44.237 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+-------------------+------------------+
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_TBATS=tail(forecasting_tbats$mean,N_forecasting_days),Lower=tail(forecasting_tbats$lower,N_forecasting_days),Upper=tail(forecasting_tbats$upper,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_TBATS | Lower.80. | Lower.95. | Upper.80. | Upper.95. |
## +=====+============+=================+======================+===========+===========+===========+===========+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 65.60 | 5.10 | -26.92 | 126.09 | 158.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 62.12 | 0.78 | -31.69 | 123.46 | 155.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 60.77 | -1.40 | -34.31 | 122.93 | 155.84 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 59.46 | -3.52 | -36.86 | 122.45 | 155.79 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 53.35 | -10.44 | -44.20 | 117.14 | 150.91 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 49.91 | -14.65 | -48.83 | 114.47 | 148.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 49.15 | -16.17 | -50.75 | 114.47 | 149.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 45.67 | -20.40 | -55.37 | 111.74 | 146.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 44.32 | -22.49 | -57.85 | 111.12 | 146.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 43.01 | -24.52 | -60.27 | 110.55 | 146.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 36.91 | -31.35 | -67.48 | 105.16 | 141.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 33.46 | -35.49 | -71.99 | 102.41 | 138.91 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 32.70 | -36.93 | -73.79 | 102.33 | 139.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 29.23 | -41.08 | -78.29 | 99.53 | 136.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 27.87 | -43.09 | -80.66 | 98.84 | 136.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 26.57 | -45.06 | -82.97 | 98.19 | 136.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 20.46 | -51.82 | -90.07 | 92.73 | 130.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 17.01 | -55.89 | -94.48 | 89.91 | 128.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 16.25 | -57.26 | -96.18 | 89.77 | 128.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 12.78 | -61.35 | -100.59 | 86.90 | 126.14 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 11.42 | -63.30 | -102.86 | 86.15 | 125.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 10.12 | -65.21 | -105.08 | 85.44 | 125.32 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 4.01 | -71.91 | -112.09 | 79.92 | 120.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 0.57 | -75.92 | -116.41 | 77.05 | 117.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | -0.19 | -77.24 | -118.03 | 76.85 | 117.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | -3.67 | -81.27 | -122.36 | 73.93 | 115.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | -5.03 | -83.18 | -124.55 | 73.13 | 114.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | -6.33 | -85.03 | -126.69 | 72.37 | 114.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | -12.44 | -91.68 | -133.63 | 66.80 | 108.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | -15.88 | -95.65 | -137.87 | 63.88 | 106.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | -16.64 | -96.92 | -139.41 | 63.63 | 106.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | -20.12 | -100.90 | -143.67 | 60.67 | 103.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | -21.47 | -102.76 | -145.79 | 59.81 | 102.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | -22.78 | -104.57 | -147.86 | 59.01 | 102.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | -28.89 | -111.17 | -154.73 | 53.40 | 96.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | -32.33 | -115.10 | -158.91 | 50.44 | 94.25 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | -33.09 | -116.33 | -160.39 | 50.15 | 94.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | -36.57 | -120.27 | -164.59 | 47.14 | 91.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | -37.92 | -122.09 | -166.65 | 46.25 | 90.81 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | -39.23 | -123.86 | -168.66 | 45.40 | 90.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | -45.34 | -130.42 | -175.47 | 39.75 | 84.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | -48.78 | -134.31 | -179.59 | 36.75 | 82.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | -49.54 | -135.50 | -181.01 | 36.43 | 81.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | -53.01 | -139.41 | -185.15 | 33.38 | 79.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | -54.37 | -141.20 | -187.16 | 32.46 | 78.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | -55.67 | -142.92 | -189.11 | 31.58 | 77.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | -61.78 | -149.46 | -195.87 | 25.89 | 72.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | -65.23 | -153.31 | -199.94 | 22.86 | 69.48 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | -65.99 | -154.47 | -201.31 | 22.50 | 69.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | -69.46 | -158.35 | -205.40 | 19.42 | 66.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | -70.82 | -160.10 | -207.36 | 18.46 | 65.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | -72.12 | -161.79 | -209.26 | 17.55 | 65.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | -78.23 | -168.29 | -215.97 | 11.83 | 59.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | -81.67 | -172.12 | -219.99 | 8.77 | 56.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | -82.43 | -173.25 | -221.32 | 8.38 | 56.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | -85.91 | -177.09 | -225.36 | 5.27 | 53.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | -87.27 | -178.81 | -227.28 | 4.28 | 52.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | -88.57 | -180.48 | -229.14 | 3.34 | 52.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | -94.68 | -186.95 | -235.80 | -2.40 | 46.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | -98.12 | -190.75 | -239.78 | -5.50 | 43.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | -98.88 | -191.85 | -241.07 | -5.91 | 43.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | -102.36 | -195.67 | -245.07 | -9.05 | 40.35 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | -103.71 | -197.36 | -246.94 | -10.06 | 39.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | -105.02 | -199.01 | -248.76 | -11.03 | 38.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | -111.13 | -205.45 | -255.38 | -16.80 | 33.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | -114.57 | -209.22 | -259.32 | -19.92 | 30.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | -115.33 | -210.30 | -260.57 | -20.36 | 29.91 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | -118.81 | -214.09 | -264.53 | -23.52 | 26.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | -120.16 | -215.76 | -266.37 | -24.56 | 26.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | -121.47 | -217.38 | -268.15 | -25.55 | 25.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | -127.58 | -223.80 | -274.74 | -31.35 | 19.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | -131.02 | -227.55 | -278.64 | -34.49 | 16.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | -131.78 | -228.60 | -279.85 | -34.96 | 16.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | -135.25 | -232.37 | -283.78 | -38.14 | 13.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | -136.61 | -234.02 | -285.58 | -39.20 | 12.36 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | -137.91 | -235.61 | -287.33 | -40.22 | 11.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | -144.02 | -242.01 | -293.88 | -46.03 | 5.84 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | -147.47 | -245.74 | -297.76 | -49.20 | 2.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | -148.23 | -246.77 | -298.93 | -49.69 | 2.48 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | -151.70 | -250.52 | -302.83 | -52.89 | -0.58 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | -153.06 | -252.14 | -304.60 | -53.97 | -1.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | -154.36 | -253.72 | -306.31 | -55.01 | -2.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | -160.47 | -260.10 | -312.83 | -60.85 | -8.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | -163.92 | -263.80 | -316.67 | -64.03 | -11.16 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | -164.67 | -264.81 | -317.82 | -64.54 | -11.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | -168.15 | -268.54 | -321.69 | -67.76 | -14.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | -169.51 | -270.15 | -323.42 | -68.86 | -15.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | -170.81 | -271.70 | -325.11 | -69.92 | -16.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | -176.92 | -278.06 | -331.60 | -75.78 | -22.24 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | -180.36 | -281.75 | -335.41 | -78.98 | -25.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | -181.12 | -282.74 | -336.53 | -79.51 | -25.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | -184.60 | -286.45 | -340.37 | -82.75 | -28.83 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | -185.95 | -288.04 | -342.08 | -83.87 | -29.83 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | -187.26 | -289.58 | -343.74 | -84.94 | -30.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | -193.37 | -295.92 | -350.20 | -90.82 | -36.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | -196.81 | -299.58 | -353.99 | -94.04 | -39.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | -197.57 | -300.56 | -355.08 | -94.58 | -40.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | -201.05 | -304.25 | -358.89 | -97.84 | -43.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | -202.40 | -305.83 | -360.57 | -98.98 | -44.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | -203.71 | -307.34 | -362.21 | -100.07 | -45.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | -209.82 | -313.67 | -368.64 | -105.96 | -50.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | -213.26 | -317.32 | -372.40 | -109.20 | -54.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | -214.02 | -318.28 | -373.47 | -109.76 | -54.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | -217.49 | -321.96 | -377.26 | -113.03 | -57.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | -218.85 | -323.51 | -378.92 | -114.19 | -58.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | -220.15 | -325.01 | -380.52 | -115.29 | -59.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | -226.26 | -331.32 | -386.94 | -121.20 | -65.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | -229.71 | -334.96 | -390.67 | -124.46 | -68.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | -230.47 | -335.90 | -391.72 | -125.03 | -69.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | -233.94 | -339.57 | -395.48 | -128.32 | -72.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | -235.30 | -341.11 | -397.12 | -129.49 | -73.48 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | -236.60 | -342.59 | -398.70 | -130.61 | -74.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
plot(forecasting_tbats)
x1_test <- ts(testing_data, start =(rows-validation_data_days+1) )
lines(x1_test, col='red',lwd=2)
graph2<-autoplot(forecasting_tbats,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
graph2
## Holt's linear trend
# Data Modeling
data_series<-ts(training_data)
model_holt<-holt(data_series,h=N_forecasting_days+validation_data_days,lambda = "auto")
accuracy(model_holt) # accuracy on training data
## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
## Training set -0.5283184 11.77956 6.829426 NaN Inf 1.025685 0.02781104
# Print Model Parameters
summary(model_holt$model)
## Holt's method
##
## Call:
## holt(y = data_series, h = N_forecasting_days + validation_data_days,
##
## Call:
## lambda = "auto")
##
## Box-Cox transformation: lambda= 0.8145
##
## Smoothing parameters:
## alpha = 0.7422
## beta = 0.0188
##
## Initial states:
## l = -1.8234
## b = 0.4392
##
## sigma: 5.1403
##
## AIC AICc BIC
## 3344.354 3344.521 3363.839
##
## Training set error measures:
## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
## Training set -0.5283184 11.77956 6.829426 NaN Inf 1.025685 0.02781104
# Testing Data Evaluation
forecasting_holt <- predict(model_holt, h=N_forecasting_days+validation_data_days,lambda = "auto")
validation_forecast<-head(forecasting_holt$mean,validation_data_days)
MAPE_Per_Day<-round( abs(((testing_data-validation_forecast)/testing_data)*100) ,3)
paste ("MAPE % For ",validation_data_days,frequency,"by using holt Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE % For 30 days by using holt Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
MAPE_Mean_All.Holt_Model<-round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3)
MAPE_Mean_All.Holt<-paste(round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3),"% MAPE ",validation_data_days,frequency,y_lab,sep=" ")
MAPE_holt<-paste(round(MAPE_Per_Day,3),"%")
MAPE_holt_Model<-paste(MAPE_Per_Day ,"%")
paste (" MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for ",validation_data_days," days in holt Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] " MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for 30 days in holt Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
paste(MAPE_Mean_All.Holt,"%")
## [1] "13.438 % MAPE 30 days Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk %"
paste ("MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for ",validation_data_days," days in holt Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for 30 days in holt Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(date_holt=validation_dates,validation_data_by_name,actual_data=testing_data,forecasting_holt=validation_forecast,MAPE_holt_Model)), type = "rest")
##
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | | date_holt | validation_data_by_name | actual_data | forecasting_holt | MAPE_holt_Model |
## +====+============+=========================+=============+==================+=================+
## | 1 | 2021-03-11 | Thursday | 145.00 | 147.02 | 1.39 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 2 | 2021-03-12 | Friday | 142.00 | 144.87 | 2.021 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 3 | 2021-03-13 | Saturday | 141.00 | 142.73 | 1.227 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 4 | 2021-03-14 | Sunday | 139.00 | 140.60 | 1.148 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 5 | 2021-03-15 | Monday | 138.00 | 138.47 | 0.339 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 6 | 2021-03-16 | Tuesday | 140.00 | 136.35 | 2.61 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 7 | 2021-03-17 | Wednesday | 137.00 | 134.23 | 2.022 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 8 | 2021-03-18 | Thursday | 136.00 | 132.12 | 2.852 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 9 | 2021-03-19 | Friday | 138.00 | 130.02 | 5.784 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 10 | 2021-03-20 | Saturday | 141.00 | 127.92 | 9.276 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 11 | 2021-03-21 | Sunday | 140.00 | 125.83 | 10.122 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 12 | 2021-03-22 | Monday | 139.00 | 123.75 | 10.975 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 13 | 2021-03-23 | Tuesday | 138.00 | 121.67 | 11.835 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 14 | 2021-03-24 | Wednesday | 137.00 | 119.60 | 12.704 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 15 | 2021-03-25 | Thursday | 136.00 | 117.53 | 13.58 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 16 | 2021-03-26 | Friday | 135.00 | 115.47 | 14.464 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 17 | 2021-03-27 | Saturday | 136.00 | 113.42 | 16.601 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 18 | 2021-03-28 | Sunday | 135.00 | 111.38 | 17.498 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 19 | 2021-03-29 | Monday | 134.00 | 109.34 | 18.402 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 20 | 2021-03-30 | Tuesday | 133.00 | 107.31 | 19.316 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 21 | 2021-03-31 | Wednesday | 131.00 | 105.29 | 19.628 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 22 | 2021-04-01 | Thursday | 130.00 | 103.27 | 20.561 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 23 | 2021-04-02 | Friday | 129.00 | 101.26 | 21.502 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 24 | 2021-04-03 | Saturday | 128.00 | 99.26 | 22.452 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 25 | 2021-04-04 | Sunday | 125.00 | 97.27 | 22.186 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 26 | 2021-04-05 | Monday | 123.00 | 95.28 | 22.536 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 27 | 2021-04-06 | Tuesday | 122.00 | 93.30 | 23.523 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 28 | 2021-04-07 | Wednesday | 121.00 | 91.33 | 24.52 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 29 | 2021-04-08 | Thursday | 120.00 | 89.37 | 25.527 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
## | 30 | 2021-04-09 | Friday | 119.00 | 87.41 | 26.544 % |
## +----+------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------+-----------------+
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_holt=tail(forecasting_holt$mean,N_forecasting_days),Lower=tail(forecasting_holt$lower,N_forecasting_days),Upper=tail(forecasting_holt$upper,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_holt | Lower.80. | Lower.95. | Upper.80. | Upper.95. |
## +=====+============+=================+=====================+===========+===========+===========+===========+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 85.47 | 9.44 | -17.53 | 179.94 | 234.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 83.53 | 6.74 | -21.62 | 180.28 | 236.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 81.60 | 4.23 | -25.86 | 180.64 | 238.09 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 79.67 | 1.97 | -30.24 | 180.99 | 239.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 77.76 | 0.17 | -34.76 | 181.36 | 241.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 75.86 | -1.34 | -39.40 | 181.74 | 243.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 73.96 | -3.50 | -44.15 | 182.13 | 245.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 72.07 | -5.97 | -49.02 | 182.53 | 247.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 70.19 | -8.66 | -53.98 | 182.93 | 249.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 68.33 | -11.51 | -59.05 | 183.35 | 251.24 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 66.47 | -14.51 | -64.21 | 183.78 | 253.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 64.62 | -17.64 | -69.46 | 184.22 | 255.16 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 62.78 | -20.89 | -74.80 | 184.67 | 257.15 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 60.95 | -24.23 | -80.23 | 185.13 | 259.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 59.13 | -27.68 | -85.74 | 185.61 | 261.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 57.32 | -31.21 | -91.33 | 186.09 | 263.26 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 55.52 | -34.83 | -97.00 | 186.59 | 265.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 53.73 | -38.52 | -102.75 | 187.10 | 267.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 51.95 | -42.29 | -108.58 | 187.62 | 269.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 50.19 | -46.14 | -114.48 | 188.15 | 271.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 48.43 | -50.05 | -120.46 | 188.69 | 273.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 46.69 | -54.04 | -126.50 | 189.25 | 276.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 44.96 | -58.08 | -132.62 | 189.81 | 278.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 43.24 | -62.19 | -138.81 | 190.39 | 280.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 41.54 | -66.36 | -145.06 | 190.98 | 282.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 39.84 | -70.59 | -151.39 | 191.59 | 285.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 38.16 | -74.87 | -157.78 | 192.21 | 287.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 36.50 | -79.22 | -164.24 | 192.83 | 289.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 34.84 | -83.61 | -170.76 | 193.48 | 292.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 33.21 | -88.07 | -177.35 | 194.13 | 294.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 31.58 | -92.57 | -184.00 | 194.80 | 296.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 29.98 | -97.12 | -190.72 | 195.47 | 299.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 28.38 | -101.73 | -197.49 | 196.17 | 301.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 26.81 | -106.39 | -204.33 | 196.87 | 304.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 25.25 | -111.09 | -211.24 | 197.59 | 306.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 23.71 | -115.85 | -218.20 | 198.32 | 309.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 22.19 | -120.65 | -225.22 | 199.06 | 311.66 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 20.68 | -125.50 | -232.31 | 199.81 | 314.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 19.20 | -130.39 | -239.45 | 200.58 | 316.81 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 17.74 | -135.33 | -246.65 | 201.36 | 319.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 16.30 | -140.31 | -253.91 | 202.15 | 322.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 14.88 | -145.34 | -261.23 | 202.96 | 324.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 13.49 | -150.42 | -268.61 | 203.78 | 327.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 12.12 | -155.53 | -276.04 | 204.61 | 330.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 10.78 | -160.69 | -283.53 | 205.45 | 332.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 9.48 | -165.90 | -291.08 | 206.31 | 335.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 8.20 | -171.14 | -298.69 | 207.18 | 338.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 6.96 | -176.43 | -306.35 | 208.06 | 341.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 5.76 | -181.76 | -314.06 | 208.96 | 344.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 4.61 | -187.13 | -321.83 | 209.87 | 346.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 3.50 | -192.54 | -329.66 | 210.79 | 349.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 2.46 | -197.99 | -337.54 | 211.72 | 352.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 1.50 | -203.48 | -345.48 | 212.67 | 355.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 0.64 | -209.01 | -353.47 | 213.63 | 358.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 0.00 | -214.57 | -361.52 | 214.60 | 361.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | -0.63 | -220.18 | -369.61 | 215.58 | 364.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | -1.49 | -225.83 | -377.77 | 216.58 | 367.58 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | -2.45 | -231.52 | -385.97 | 217.59 | 370.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | -3.49 | -237.24 | -394.23 | 218.62 | 373.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | -4.60 | -243.00 | -402.54 | 219.66 | 376.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | -5.75 | -248.80 | -410.90 | 220.71 | 379.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | -6.95 | -254.64 | -419.32 | 221.77 | 383.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | -8.19 | -260.51 | -427.79 | 222.84 | 386.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | -9.46 | -266.42 | -436.31 | 223.93 | 389.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | -10.77 | -272.37 | -444.88 | 225.03 | 392.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | -12.11 | -278.35 | -453.50 | 226.15 | 395.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | -13.47 | -284.38 | -462.18 | 227.28 | 399.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | -14.87 | -290.43 | -470.90 | 228.42 | 402.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | -16.28 | -296.53 | -479.68 | 229.57 | 405.91 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | -17.72 | -302.65 | -488.50 | 230.74 | 409.26 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | -19.18 | -308.82 | -497.38 | 231.92 | 412.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | -20.67 | -315.02 | -506.31 | 233.11 | 416.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | -22.17 | -321.25 | -515.29 | 234.31 | 419.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | -23.69 | -327.52 | -524.32 | 235.53 | 422.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | -25.23 | -333.83 | -533.40 | 236.76 | 426.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | -26.79 | -340.17 | -542.52 | 238.01 | 429.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | -28.37 | -346.54 | -551.70 | 239.26 | 433.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | -29.96 | -352.95 | -560.93 | 240.53 | 437.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | -31.57 | -359.40 | -570.20 | 241.82 | 440.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | -33.19 | -365.87 | -579.53 | 243.11 | 444.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | -34.83 | -372.38 | -588.90 | 244.42 | 447.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | -36.48 | -378.93 | -598.33 | 245.74 | 451.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | -38.14 | -385.51 | -607.80 | 247.08 | 455.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | -39.82 | -392.12 | -617.32 | 248.42 | 458.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | -41.52 | -398.77 | -626.89 | 249.78 | 462.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | -43.22 | -405.44 | -636.50 | 251.16 | 466.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | -44.94 | -412.16 | -646.17 | 252.54 | 470.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | -46.67 | -418.90 | -655.88 | 253.94 | 474.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | -48.41 | -425.68 | -665.64 | 255.36 | 477.88 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | -50.17 | -432.49 | -675.45 | 256.78 | 481.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | -51.93 | -439.33 | -685.30 | 258.22 | 485.63 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | -53.71 | -446.21 | -695.21 | 259.67 | 489.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | -55.50 | -453.12 | -705.16 | 261.13 | 493.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | -57.30 | -460.06 | -715.16 | 262.61 | 497.46 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | -59.11 | -467.03 | -725.20 | 264.10 | 501.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | -60.93 | -474.04 | -735.29 | 265.61 | 505.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | -62.76 | -481.07 | -745.43 | 267.12 | 509.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | -64.60 | -488.14 | -755.62 | 268.65 | 513.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | -66.45 | -495.24 | -765.85 | 270.19 | 517.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | -68.31 | -502.38 | -776.13 | 271.75 | 521.81 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | -70.17 | -509.54 | -786.45 | 273.32 | 525.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | -72.05 | -516.73 | -796.83 | 274.90 | 530.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | -73.94 | -523.96 | -807.24 | 276.49 | 534.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | -75.83 | -531.22 | -817.71 | 278.10 | 538.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | -77.74 | -538.51 | -828.22 | 279.72 | 542.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | -79.65 | -545.83 | -838.77 | 281.35 | 547.08 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | -81.58 | -553.18 | -849.38 | 283.00 | 551.38 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | -83.51 | -560.56 | -860.02 | 284.66 | 555.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | -85.44 | -567.98 | -870.72 | 286.33 | 560.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | -87.39 | -575.42 | -881.46 | 288.02 | 564.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | -89.35 | -582.89 | -892.24 | 289.72 | 568.84 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | -91.31 | -590.40 | -903.07 | 291.43 | 573.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
plot(forecasting_holt)
x1_test <- ts(testing_data, start =(rows-validation_data_days+1) )
lines(x1_test, col='red',lwd=2)
graph3<-autoplot(forecasting_holt,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
graph3
#Auto arima model
##################
require(tseries) # need to install tseries tj test Stationarity in time series
paste ("tests For Check Stationarity in series ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "tests For Check Stationarity in series ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
kpss.test(data_series) # applay kpss test
## Warning in kpss.test(data_series): p-value smaller than printed p-value
##
## KPSS Test for Level Stationarity
##
## data: data_series
## KPSS Level = 4.3109, Truncation lag parameter = 5, p-value = 0.01
pp.test(data_series) # applay pp test
##
## Phillips-Perron Unit Root Test
##
## data: data_series
## Dickey-Fuller Z(alpha) = -2.5396, Truncation lag parameter = 5, p-value
## = 0.953
## alternative hypothesis: stationary
adf.test(data_series) # applay adf test
##
## Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test
##
## data: data_series
## Dickey-Fuller = -0.52539, Lag order = 7, p-value = 0.9804
## alternative hypothesis: stationary
ndiffs(data_series) # Doing first diffrencing on data
## [1] 1
#Taking the first difference
diff1_x1<-diff(data_series)
autoplot(diff1_x1, xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab,main = "1nd differenced series")
##Testing the stationary of the first differenced series
paste ("tests For Check Stationarity in series after taking first differences in ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "tests For Check Stationarity in series after taking first differences in ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
kpss.test(diff1_x1) # applay kpss test after taking first differences
## Warning in kpss.test(diff1_x1): p-value greater than printed p-value
##
## KPSS Test for Level Stationarity
##
## data: diff1_x1
## KPSS Level = 0.29355, Truncation lag parameter = 5, p-value = 0.1
pp.test(diff1_x1) # applay pp test after taking first differences
## Warning in pp.test(diff1_x1): p-value smaller than printed p-value
##
## Phillips-Perron Unit Root Test
##
## data: diff1_x1
## Dickey-Fuller Z(alpha) = -410.76, Truncation lag parameter = 5, p-value
## = 0.01
## alternative hypothesis: stationary
adf.test(diff1_x1) # applay adf test after taking first differences
## Warning in adf.test(diff1_x1): p-value smaller than printed p-value
##
## Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test
##
## data: diff1_x1
## Dickey-Fuller = -6.3907, Lag order = 7, p-value = 0.01
## alternative hypothesis: stationary
#Taking the second difference
diff2_x1=diff(diff1_x1)
autoplot(diff2_x1, xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab ,main = "2nd differenced series")
##Testing the stationary of the first differenced series
paste ("tests For Check Stationarity in series after taking Second differences in",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "tests For Check Stationarity in series after taking Second differences in Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
kpss.test(diff2_x1) # applay kpss test after taking Second differences
## Warning in kpss.test(diff2_x1): p-value greater than printed p-value
##
## KPSS Test for Level Stationarity
##
## data: diff2_x1
## KPSS Level = 0.007832, Truncation lag parameter = 5, p-value = 0.1
pp.test(diff2_x1) # applay pp test after taking Second differences
## Warning in pp.test(diff2_x1): p-value smaller than printed p-value
##
## Phillips-Perron Unit Root Test
##
## data: diff2_x1
## Dickey-Fuller Z(alpha) = -490.97, Truncation lag parameter = 5, p-value
## = 0.01
## alternative hypothesis: stationary
adf.test(diff2_x1) # applay adf test after taking Second differences
## Warning in adf.test(diff2_x1): p-value smaller than printed p-value
##
## Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test
##
## data: diff2_x1
## Dickey-Fuller = -13.266, Lag order = 7, p-value = 0.01
## alternative hypothesis: stationary
####Fitting an ARIMA Model
#1. Using auto arima function
model1 <- auto.arima(data_series,stepwise=FALSE, approximation=FALSE, trace=T, test = c("kpss", "adf", "pp")) #applaying auto arima
##
## ARIMA(0,1,0) : 2838.591
## ARIMA(0,1,0) with drift : 2840.191
## ARIMA(0,1,1) : 2825.101
## ARIMA(0,1,1) with drift : 2826.425
## ARIMA(0,1,2) : 2827.076
## ARIMA(0,1,2) with drift : 2828.434
## ARIMA(0,1,3) : 2824.827
## ARIMA(0,1,3) with drift : 2826.031
## ARIMA(0,1,4) : 2825.288
## ARIMA(0,1,4) with drift : 2826.426
## ARIMA(0,1,5) : 2819.043
## ARIMA(0,1,5) with drift : 2820.36
## ARIMA(1,1,0) : 2824.8
## ARIMA(1,1,0) with drift : 2826.186
## ARIMA(1,1,1) : 2826.83
## ARIMA(1,1,1) with drift : 2828.231
## ARIMA(1,1,2) : 2828.819
## ARIMA(1,1,2) with drift : 2830.213
## ARIMA(1,1,3) : 2826.496
## ARIMA(1,1,3) with drift : 2827.684
## ARIMA(1,1,4) : 2821.852
## ARIMA(1,1,4) with drift : 2823.007
## ARIMA(2,1,0) : 2826.831
## ARIMA(2,1,0) with drift : 2828.231
## ARIMA(2,1,1) : 2828.191
## ARIMA(2,1,1) with drift : 2829.46
## ARIMA(2,1,2) : 2829.738
## ARIMA(2,1,2) with drift : 2831.004
## ARIMA(2,1,3) : 2819.714
## ARIMA(2,1,3) with drift : 2821.028
## ARIMA(3,1,0) : 2828.302
## ARIMA(3,1,0) with drift : 2829.656
## ARIMA(3,1,1) : 2828.245
## ARIMA(3,1,1) with drift : 2829.439
## ARIMA(3,1,2) : 2822.555
## ARIMA(3,1,2) with drift : 2823.822
## ARIMA(4,1,0) : 2818.895
## ARIMA(4,1,0) with drift : 2819.938
## ARIMA(4,1,1) : 2816.537
## ARIMA(4,1,1) with drift : 2817.701
## ARIMA(5,1,0) : 2817.177
## ARIMA(5,1,0) with drift : 2818.433
##
##
##
## Best model: ARIMA(4,1,1)
model1 # show the result of autoarima
## Series: data_series
## ARIMA(4,1,1)
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 ar2 ar3 ar4 ma1
## -0.6728 -0.1011 -0.0797 -0.1998 0.4806
## s.e. 0.1525 0.0688 0.0621 0.0522 0.1507
##
## sigma^2 estimated as 134.4: log likelihood=-1402.15
## AIC=2816.3 AICc=2816.54 BIC=2839.67
#Make changes in the source of auto arima to run the best model
arima.string <- function (object, padding = FALSE)
{
order <- object$arma[c(1, 6, 2, 3, 7, 4, 5)]
m <- order[7]
result <- paste("ARIMA(", order[1], ",", order[2], ",",
order[3], ")", sep = "")
if (m > 1 && sum(order[4:6]) > 0) {
result <- paste(result, "(", order[4], ",", order[5],
",", order[6], ")[", m, "]", sep = "")
}
if (padding && m > 1 && sum(order[4:6]) == 0) {
result <- paste(result, " ", sep = "")
if (m <= 9) {
result <- paste(result, " ", sep = "")
}
else if (m <= 99) {
result <- paste(result, " ", sep = "")
}
else {
result <- paste(result, " ", sep = "")
}
}
if (!is.null(object$xreg)) {
if (NCOL(object$xreg) == 1 && is.element("drift", names(object$coef))) {
result <- paste(result, "with drift ")
}
else {
result <- paste("Regression with", result, "errors")
}
}
else {
if (is.element("constant", names(object$coef)) || is.element("intercept",
names(object$coef))) {
result <- paste(result, "with non-zero mean")
}
else if (order[2] == 0 && order[5] == 0) {
result <- paste(result, "with zero mean ")
}
else {
result <- paste(result, " ")
}
}
if (!padding) {
result <- gsub("[ ]*$", "", result)
}
return(result)
}
bestmodel <- arima.string(model1, padding = TRUE)
bestmodel <- substring(bestmodel,7,11)
bestmodel <- gsub(" ", "", bestmodel)
bestmodel <- gsub(")", "", bestmodel)
bestmodel <- strsplit(bestmodel, ",")[[1]]
bestmodel <- c(strtoi(bestmodel[1]),strtoi(bestmodel[2]),strtoi(bestmodel[3]))
bestmodel
## [1] 4 1 1
strtoi(bestmodel[3])
## [1] 1
#2. Using ACF and PACF Function
#par(mfrow=c(1,2)) # Code for making two plot in one graph
acf(diff2_x1,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" ") , ylab=y_lab, main=paste("ACF-2nd differenced series ",y_lab, sep=" ",lag.max=20)) # plot ACF "auto correlation function after taking second diffrences
pacf(diff2_x1,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab,main=paste("PACF-2nd differenced series ",y_lab, sep=" ",lag.max=20)) # plot PACF " Partial auto correlation function after taking second diffrences
library(forecast) # install library forecast
x1_model1= arima(data_series, order=c(bestmodel)) # Run Best model of auto arima for forecasting
x1_model1 # Show result of best model of auto arima
##
## Call:
## arima(x = data_series, order = c(bestmodel))
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 ar2 ar3 ar4 ma1
## -0.6728 -0.1011 -0.0797 -0.1998 0.4806
## s.e. 0.1525 0.0688 0.0621 0.0522 0.1507
##
## sigma^2 estimated as 132.5: log likelihood = -1402.15, aic = 2816.3
paste ("accuracy of autoarima Model For ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "accuracy of autoarima Model For ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
accuracy(x1_model1) # aacuracy of best model from auto arima
## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1
## Training set 0.5733072 11.49644 6.791596 NaN Inf 1.020004 -0.0001184332
x1_model1$x # show result of best model from auto arima
## NULL
checkresiduals(x1_model1,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab) # checkresiduals from best model from using auto arima
##
## Ljung-Box test
##
## data: Residuals from ARIMA(4,1,1)
## Q* = 7.6634, df = 5, p-value = 0.1758
##
## Model df: 5. Total lags used: 10
paste("Box-Ljung test , Ljung-Box test For Modelling for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "Box-Ljung test , Ljung-Box test For Modelling for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
Box.test(x1_model1$residuals^2, lag=20, type="Ljung-Box") # Do test for resdulas by using Box-Ljung test , Ljung-Box test For Modelling
##
## Box-Ljung test
##
## data: x1_model1$residuals^2
## X-squared = 152.37, df = 20, p-value < 2.2e-16
library(tseries)
jarque.bera.test(x1_model1$residuals) # Do test jarque.bera.test
##
## Jarque Bera Test
##
## data: x1_model1$residuals
## X-squared = 1865.3, df = 2, p-value < 2.2e-16
#Actual Vs Fitted
plot(data_series, col='red',lwd=2, main="Actual vs Fitted Plot", xlab='Time in (days)', ylab=y_lab) # plot actual and Fitted model
lines(fitted(x1_model1), col='black')
#Test data
x1_test <- ts(testing_data, start =(rows-validation_data_days+1) ) # make testing data in time series and start from rows-6
forecasting_auto_arima <- forecast(x1_model1, h=N_forecasting_days+validation_data_days)
validation_forecast<-head(forecasting_auto_arima$mean,validation_data_days)
MAPE_Per_Day<-round(abs(((testing_data-validation_forecast)/testing_data)*100) ,3)
paste ("MAPE % For ",validation_data_days,frequency,"by using bats Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE % For 30 days by using bats Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
MAPE_Mean_All.ARIMA_Model<-round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3)
MAPE_Mean_All.ARIMA<-paste(round(mean(MAPE_Per_Day),3),"% MAPE ",validation_data_days,frequency,y_lab,sep=" ")
MAPE_auto_arima<-paste(round(MAPE_Per_Day,3),"%")
MAPE_auto.arima_Model<-paste(MAPE_Per_Day ,"%")
paste (" MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for ",validation_data_days," days in bats Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] " MAPE that's Error of Forecasting for 30 days in bats Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
paste(MAPE_Mean_All.ARIMA,"%")
## [1] "12.949 % MAPE 30 days Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk %"
paste ("MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for ",validation_data_days," days in bats Model for ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## [1] "MAPE that's Error of Forecasting day by day for 30 days in bats Model for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(date_auto.arima=validation_dates,validation_data_by_name,actual_data=testing_data,forecasting_auto.arima=validation_forecast,MAPE_auto.arima_Model)), type = "rest")
##
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | | date_auto.arima | validation_data_by_name | actual_data | forecasting_auto.arima | MAPE_auto.arima_Model |
## +====+=================+=========================+=============+========================+=======================+
## | 1 | 2021-03-11 | Thursday | 145.00 | 150.00 | 3.449 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 2 | 2021-03-12 | Friday | 142.00 | 150.31 | 5.852 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 3 | 2021-03-13 | Saturday | 141.00 | 150.44 | 6.695 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 4 | 2021-03-14 | Sunday | 139.00 | 150.84 | 8.518 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 5 | 2021-03-15 | Monday | 138.00 | 150.33 | 8.937 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 6 | 2021-03-16 | Tuesday | 140.00 | 150.56 | 7.544 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 7 | 2021-03-17 | Wednesday | 137.00 | 150.40 | 9.782 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 8 | 2021-03-18 | Thursday | 136.00 | 150.45 | 10.622 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 9 | 2021-03-19 | Friday | 138.00 | 150.52 | 9.069 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 10 | 2021-03-20 | Saturday | 141.00 | 150.43 | 6.689 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 11 | 2021-03-21 | Sunday | 140.00 | 150.51 | 7.507 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 12 | 2021-03-22 | Monday | 139.00 | 150.45 | 8.238 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 13 | 2021-03-23 | Tuesday | 138.00 | 150.48 | 9.04 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 14 | 2021-03-24 | Wednesday | 137.00 | 150.48 | 9.836 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 15 | 2021-03-25 | Thursday | 136.00 | 150.46 | 10.634 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 16 | 2021-03-26 | Friday | 135.00 | 150.48 | 11.467 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 17 | 2021-03-27 | Saturday | 136.00 | 150.46 | 10.636 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 18 | 2021-03-28 | Sunday | 135.00 | 150.47 | 11.463 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 19 | 2021-03-29 | Monday | 134.00 | 150.47 | 12.292 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 20 | 2021-03-30 | Tuesday | 133.00 | 150.47 | 13.135 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 21 | 2021-03-31 | Wednesday | 131.00 | 150.47 | 14.865 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 22 | 2021-04-01 | Thursday | 130.00 | 150.47 | 15.746 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 23 | 2021-04-02 | Friday | 129.00 | 150.47 | 16.645 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 24 | 2021-04-03 | Saturday | 128.00 | 150.47 | 17.555 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 25 | 2021-04-04 | Sunday | 125.00 | 150.47 | 20.377 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 26 | 2021-04-05 | Monday | 123.00 | 150.47 | 22.335 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 27 | 2021-04-06 | Tuesday | 122.00 | 150.47 | 23.337 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 28 | 2021-04-07 | Wednesday | 121.00 | 150.47 | 24.357 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 29 | 2021-04-08 | Thursday | 120.00 | 150.47 | 25.393 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
## | 30 | 2021-04-09 | Friday | 119.00 | 150.47 | 26.447 % |
## +----+-----------------+-------------------------+-------------+------------------------+-----------------------+
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_auto.arima=tail(forecasting_auto_arima$mean,N_forecasting_days),Lower=tail(forecasting_auto_arima$lower,N_forecasting_days),Upper=tail(forecasting_auto_arima$upper,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_auto.arima | Lower.80. | Lower.95. | Upper.80. | Upper.95. |
## +=====+============+=================+===========================+===========+===========+===========+===========+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 150.47 | 89.89 | 57.82 | 211.05 | 243.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 150.47 | 88.96 | 56.40 | 211.98 | 244.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 150.47 | 88.05 | 55.00 | 212.89 | 245.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 87.15 | 53.63 | 213.79 | 247.32 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 86.26 | 52.27 | 214.68 | 248.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 150.47 | 85.39 | 50.93 | 215.56 | 250.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 150.47 | 84.52 | 49.61 | 216.42 | 251.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 150.47 | 83.67 | 48.31 | 217.27 | 252.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 150.47 | 82.83 | 47.02 | 218.11 | 253.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 150.47 | 82.00 | 45.75 | 218.95 | 255.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 81.17 | 44.49 | 219.77 | 256.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 80.36 | 43.25 | 220.58 | 257.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 150.47 | 79.56 | 42.02 | 221.38 | 258.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 150.47 | 78.77 | 40.81 | 222.18 | 260.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 150.47 | 77.98 | 39.61 | 222.96 | 261.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 150.47 | 77.21 | 38.42 | 223.74 | 262.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 150.47 | 76.44 | 37.25 | 224.51 | 263.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 75.68 | 36.08 | 225.27 | 264.86 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 74.92 | 34.93 | 226.02 | 266.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 150.47 | 74.18 | 33.79 | 226.76 | 267.15 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 150.47 | 73.44 | 32.66 | 227.50 | 268.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 150.47 | 72.71 | 31.55 | 228.23 | 269.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 150.47 | 71.99 | 30.44 | 228.96 | 270.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 150.47 | 71.27 | 29.34 | 229.67 | 271.60 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 70.56 | 28.25 | 230.39 | 272.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 69.85 | 27.17 | 231.09 | 273.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 150.47 | 69.15 | 26.11 | 231.79 | 274.84 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 150.47 | 68.46 | 25.05 | 232.48 | 275.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 150.47 | 67.77 | 24.00 | 233.17 | 276.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 150.47 | 67.09 | 22.95 | 233.85 | 277.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 150.47 | 66.42 | 21.92 | 234.53 | 279.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 65.75 | 20.89 | 235.20 | 280.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 65.08 | 19.88 | 235.86 | 281.07 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 150.47 | 64.42 | 18.87 | 236.52 | 282.08 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 150.47 | 63.76 | 17.87 | 237.18 | 283.08 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 150.47 | 63.11 | 16.87 | 237.83 | 284.07 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 150.47 | 62.47 | 15.88 | 238.47 | 285.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 150.47 | 61.83 | 14.90 | 239.11 | 286.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 61.19 | 13.93 | 239.75 | 287.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 60.56 | 12.97 | 240.38 | 287.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 150.47 | 59.93 | 12.01 | 241.01 | 288.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 150.47 | 59.31 | 11.05 | 241.63 | 289.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 150.47 | 58.69 | 10.11 | 242.25 | 290.84 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 150.47 | 58.08 | 9.17 | 242.86 | 291.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 150.47 | 57.47 | 8.23 | 243.48 | 292.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 56.86 | 7.31 | 244.08 | 293.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 56.26 | 6.39 | 244.68 | 294.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 150.47 | 55.66 | 5.47 | 245.28 | 295.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 150.47 | 55.06 | 4.56 | 245.88 | 296.38 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 150.47 | 54.47 | 3.66 | 246.47 | 297.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 150.47 | 53.89 | 2.76 | 247.06 | 298.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 150.47 | 53.30 | 1.86 | 247.64 | 299.08 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 52.72 | 0.98 | 248.22 | 299.97 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 52.14 | 0.09 | 248.80 | 300.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 150.47 | 51.57 | -0.78 | 249.37 | 301.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | 150.47 | 51.00 | -1.66 | 249.94 | 302.60 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | 150.47 | 50.43 | -2.52 | 250.51 | 303.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | 150.47 | 49.87 | -3.39 | 251.07 | 304.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | 150.47 | 49.31 | -4.25 | 251.63 | 305.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 48.75 | -5.10 | 252.19 | 306.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 48.20 | -5.95 | 252.75 | 306.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | 150.47 | 47.64 | -6.79 | 253.30 | 307.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | 150.47 | 47.09 | -7.63 | 253.85 | 308.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | 150.47 | 46.55 | -8.46 | 254.39 | 309.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | 150.47 | 46.01 | -9.30 | 254.94 | 310.24 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | 150.47 | 45.47 | -10.12 | 255.48 | 311.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 44.93 | -10.94 | 256.01 | 311.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 44.39 | -11.76 | 256.55 | 312.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | 150.47 | 43.86 | -12.58 | 257.08 | 313.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | 150.47 | 43.33 | -13.38 | 257.61 | 314.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | 150.47 | 42.80 | -14.19 | 258.14 | 315.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | 150.47 | 42.28 | -14.99 | 258.66 | 315.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | 150.47 | 41.76 | -15.79 | 259.18 | 316.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 41.24 | -16.58 | 259.70 | 317.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 40.72 | -17.37 | 260.22 | 318.32 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | 150.47 | 40.21 | -18.16 | 260.73 | 319.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | 150.47 | 39.70 | -18.94 | 261.25 | 319.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | 150.47 | 39.19 | -19.72 | 261.76 | 320.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | 150.47 | 38.68 | -20.50 | 262.26 | 321.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | 150.47 | 38.17 | -21.27 | 262.77 | 322.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 37.67 | -22.04 | 263.27 | 322.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 37.17 | -22.81 | 263.77 | 323.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | 150.47 | 36.67 | -23.57 | 264.27 | 324.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | 150.47 | 36.18 | -24.33 | 264.77 | 325.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | 150.47 | 35.68 | -25.08 | 265.26 | 326.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | 150.47 | 35.19 | -25.84 | 265.75 | 326.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | 150.47 | 34.70 | -26.58 | 266.24 | 327.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 34.21 | -27.33 | 266.73 | 328.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 33.73 | -28.07 | 267.22 | 329.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | 150.47 | 33.24 | -28.81 | 267.70 | 329.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | 150.47 | 32.76 | -29.55 | 268.18 | 330.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | 150.47 | 32.28 | -30.28 | 268.66 | 331.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | 150.47 | 31.80 | -31.01 | 269.14 | 331.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | 150.47 | 31.33 | -31.74 | 269.61 | 332.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 30.85 | -32.47 | 270.09 | 333.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 30.38 | -33.19 | 270.56 | 334.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | 150.47 | 29.91 | -33.91 | 271.03 | 334.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | 150.47 | 29.44 | -34.62 | 271.50 | 335.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | 150.47 | 28.98 | -35.34 | 271.97 | 336.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | 150.47 | 28.51 | -36.05 | 272.43 | 336.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | 150.47 | 28.05 | -36.76 | 272.89 | 337.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 27.59 | -37.46 | 273.35 | 338.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 27.13 | -38.17 | 273.81 | 339.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | 150.47 | 26.67 | -38.87 | 274.27 | 339.81 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | 150.47 | 26.21 | -39.56 | 274.73 | 340.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | 150.47 | 25.76 | -40.26 | 275.18 | 341.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | 150.47 | 25.31 | -40.95 | 275.64 | 341.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | 150.47 | 24.86 | -41.64 | 276.09 | 342.58 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 24.41 | -42.33 | 276.54 | 343.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 23.96 | -43.01 | 276.98 | 343.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | 150.47 | 23.51 | -43.70 | 277.43 | 344.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | 150.47 | 23.07 | -44.38 | 277.88 | 345.32 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
plot(forecasting_auto_arima)
x1_test <- ts(testing_data, start =(rows-validation_data_days+1) )
lines(x1_test, col='red',lwd=2)
graph4<-autoplot(forecasting_auto_arima,xlab = paste ("Time in", frequency ,y_lab , sep=" "), ylab=y_lab)
graph4
MAPE_Mean_All.ARIMA
## [1] "12.949 % MAPE 30 days Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
# SIR Model
#install.packages("dplyr")
library(deSolve)
first<-rows-(validation_data_days+N_forecasting_days-1)
secondr<-rows-N_forecasting_days
vector_SIR<-original_data[first:secondr]
Infected <- c(vector_SIR)
Day <- 1:(length(Infected))
N <- Population # population of the us
SIR <- function(time, state, parameters) {
par <- as.list(c(state, parameters))
with(par, {
dS <- -beta/N * I * S
dI <- beta/N * I * S - gamma * I
dR <- gamma * I
list(c(dS, dI, dR))
})
}
init <- c(S = N-Infected[1], I = Infected[1], R = 0)
RSS <- function(parameters) {
names(parameters) <- c("beta", "gamma")
out <- ode(y = init, times = Day, func = SIR, parms = parameters)
fit <- out[ , 3]
sum((Infected - fit)^2)
}
# optimize with some sensible conditions
Opt <- optim(c(0.5, 0.5), RSS, method = "L-BFGS-B",
lower = c(0, 0), upper = c(10, 10))
Opt$message
## [1] "CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH"
Opt_par <- setNames(Opt$par, c("beta", "gamma"))
Opt_par
## beta gamma
## 2.014136 1.988490
# beta gamma
# 0.6512503 0.4920399
out <- ode(y = init, times = Day, func = SIR, parms = Opt_par)
plot(out)
plot(out, obs=data.frame(time=Day, I=Infected))
result_SIR<-data.frame(out)
validation_forecast<-result_SIR$I
MAPE_Mean_SIR<-round(mean(abs(((testing_data-validation_forecast)/testing_data)*100)),3)
## forecasting by SIR model
Infected <- c(tail(original_data,N_forecasting_days))
Day <- 1:(length(Infected))
N <- Population # population of the us
SIR <- function(time, state, parameters) {
par <- as.list(c(state, parameters))
with(par, {
dS <- -beta/N * I * S
dI <- beta/N * I * S - gamma * I
dR <- gamma * I
list(c(dS, dI, dR))
})
}
init <- c(S = N-Infected[1], I = Infected[1], R = 0)
RSS <- function(parameters) {
names(parameters) <- c("beta", "gamma")
out <- ode(y = init, times = Day, func = SIR, parms = parameters)
fit <- out[ , 3]
sum((Infected - fit)^2)
}
# optimize with some sensible conditions
Opt <- optim(c(0.5, 0.5), RSS, method = "L-BFGS-B",
lower = c(0, 0), upper = c(10, 10))
Opt$message
## [1] "CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH"
Opt_par <- setNames(Opt$par, c("beta", "gamma"))
Opt_par
## beta gamma
## 0.9602501 0.9578180
# beta gamma
# 0.6512503 0.4920399
out <- ode(y = init, times = Day, func = SIR, parms = Opt_par)
plot(out)
plot(out, obs=data.frame(time=Day, I=Infected))
result_SIR <-data.frame(out)
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_SIR=result_SIR$I)), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_SIR |
## +=====+============+=================+====================+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 317.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 317.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 318.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 318.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 319.09 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 319.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 319.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 319.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 319.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 319.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 319.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 319.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 319.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 318.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 318.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 318.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 317.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 316.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 316.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 315.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 314.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 313.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 312.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 311.08 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 309.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 308.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 307.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 305.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 304.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 302.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 301.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 299.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 297.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 295.86 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 293.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 292.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 290.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 288.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 285.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 283.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 281.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 279.35 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 277.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 274.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 272.37 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 269.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 267.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 265.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 262.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 259.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 257.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 254.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 252.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 249.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 246.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | 244.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | 241.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | 238.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | 236.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | 233.26 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | 230.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | 227.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | 224.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | 222.15 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | 219.36 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | 216.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | 213.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | 210.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | 208.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | 205.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | 202.60 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | 199.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | 197.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | 194.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | 191.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | 188.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | 186.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | 183.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | 180.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | 177.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | 175.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | 172.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | 169.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | 167.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | 164.66 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | 162.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | 159.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | 156.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | 154.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | 151.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | 149.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | 146.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | 144.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | 142.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | 139.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | 137.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | 135.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | 132.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | 130.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | 128.14 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | 125.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | 123.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | 121.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | 119.35 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | 117.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | 115.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | 113.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | 111.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | 108.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | 106.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | 105.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | 103.09 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
# Table for MAPE For counry
best_recommended_model <- min(MAPE_Mean_All_NNAR,MAPE_Mean_All.bats_Model,MAPE_Mean_All.TBATS_Model,MAPE_Mean_All.Holt_Model,MAPE_Mean_All.ARIMA_Model,MAPE_Mean_SIR)
paste("System Choose Least Error ==> ( MAPE %) of Forecasting by using bats model and BATS Model, Holt's Linear Models , and autoarima for ==> ", y_lab , sep=" ")
## [1] "System Choose Least Error ==> ( MAPE %) of Forecasting by using bats model and BATS Model, Holt's Linear Models , and autoarima for ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
best_recommended_model
## [1] 6.984
x1<-if(best_recommended_model >= MAPE_Mean_All.bats_Model) {paste("BATS Model")}
x2<-if(best_recommended_model >= MAPE_Mean_All.TBATS_Model) {paste("TBATS Model")}
x3<-if(best_recommended_model >= MAPE_Mean_All.Holt_Model) {paste("Holt Model")}
x4<-if(best_recommended_model >= MAPE_Mean_All.ARIMA_Model) {paste("ARIMA Model")}
x5<-if(best_recommended_model >= MAPE_Mean_All_NNAR) {paste("NNAR Model")}
x6<-if(best_recommended_model >= MAPE_Mean_SIR) {paste("SIR Model")}
panderOptions('table.split.table', Inf)
paste("Forecasting by using BATS Model ==> ", y_lab , sep=" ")
## [1] "Forecasting by using BATS Model ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_bats=tail(forecasting_bats$mean,N_forecasting_days),lower=tail(forecasting_bats$lower,N_forecasting_days),Upper=tail(forecasting_bats$lower,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_bats | lower.80. | lower.95. | Upper.80. | Upper.95. |
## +=====+============+=================+=====================+===========+===========+===========+===========+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 149.70 | 82.46 | 46.87 | 82.46 | 46.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 149.70 | 81.41 | 45.26 | 81.41 | 45.26 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 149.70 | 80.37 | 43.67 | 80.37 | 43.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 79.34 | 42.10 | 79.34 | 42.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 78.33 | 40.56 | 78.33 | 40.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 149.70 | 77.34 | 39.03 | 77.34 | 39.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 149.70 | 76.36 | 37.53 | 76.36 | 37.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 149.70 | 75.39 | 36.05 | 75.39 | 36.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 149.70 | 74.43 | 34.59 | 74.43 | 34.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 149.70 | 73.49 | 33.14 | 73.49 | 33.14 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 72.55 | 31.71 | 72.55 | 31.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 71.63 | 30.30 | 71.63 | 30.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 149.70 | 70.72 | 28.91 | 70.72 | 28.91 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 149.70 | 69.82 | 27.53 | 69.82 | 27.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 149.70 | 68.93 | 26.17 | 68.93 | 26.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 149.70 | 68.05 | 24.82 | 68.05 | 24.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 149.70 | 67.17 | 23.49 | 67.17 | 23.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 66.31 | 22.17 | 66.31 | 22.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 65.46 | 20.86 | 65.46 | 20.86 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 149.70 | 64.61 | 19.57 | 64.61 | 19.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 149.70 | 63.78 | 18.29 | 63.78 | 18.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 149.70 | 62.95 | 17.02 | 62.95 | 17.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 149.70 | 62.13 | 15.77 | 62.13 | 15.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 149.70 | 61.31 | 14.53 | 61.31 | 14.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 60.51 | 13.29 | 60.51 | 13.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 59.71 | 12.07 | 59.71 | 12.07 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 149.70 | 58.92 | 10.86 | 58.92 | 10.86 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 149.70 | 58.13 | 9.66 | 58.13 | 9.66 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 149.70 | 57.35 | 8.47 | 57.35 | 8.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 149.70 | 56.58 | 7.29 | 56.58 | 7.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 149.70 | 55.82 | 6.12 | 55.82 | 6.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 55.06 | 4.96 | 55.06 | 4.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 54.31 | 3.81 | 54.31 | 3.81 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 149.70 | 53.56 | 2.67 | 53.56 | 2.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 149.70 | 52.82 | 1.53 | 52.82 | 1.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 149.70 | 52.08 | 0.41 | 52.08 | 0.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 149.70 | 51.35 | -0.71 | 51.35 | -0.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 149.70 | 50.63 | -1.82 | 50.63 | -1.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 49.91 | -2.92 | 49.91 | -2.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 49.19 | -4.01 | 49.19 | -4.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 149.70 | 48.48 | -5.10 | 48.48 | -5.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 149.70 | 47.78 | -6.17 | 47.78 | -6.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 149.70 | 47.08 | -7.24 | 47.08 | -7.24 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 149.70 | 46.38 | -8.31 | 46.38 | -8.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 149.70 | 45.69 | -9.36 | 45.69 | -9.36 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 45.01 | -10.41 | 45.01 | -10.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 44.33 | -11.45 | 44.33 | -11.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 149.70 | 43.65 | -12.49 | 43.65 | -12.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 149.70 | 42.98 | -13.52 | 42.98 | -13.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 149.70 | 42.31 | -14.54 | 42.31 | -14.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 149.70 | 41.64 | -15.56 | 41.64 | -15.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 149.70 | 40.98 | -16.57 | 40.98 | -16.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 40.33 | -17.57 | 40.33 | -17.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 39.68 | -18.57 | 39.68 | -18.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 149.70 | 39.03 | -19.56 | 39.03 | -19.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | 149.70 | 38.38 | -20.54 | 38.38 | -20.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | 149.70 | 37.74 | -21.52 | 37.74 | -21.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | 149.70 | 37.10 | -22.50 | 37.10 | -22.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | 149.70 | 36.47 | -23.47 | 36.47 | -23.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 35.84 | -24.43 | 35.84 | -24.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 35.21 | -25.39 | 35.21 | -25.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | 149.70 | 34.59 | -26.34 | 34.59 | -26.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | 149.70 | 33.97 | -27.29 | 33.97 | -27.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | 149.70 | 33.35 | -28.23 | 33.35 | -28.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | 149.70 | 32.74 | -29.17 | 32.74 | -29.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | 149.70 | 32.13 | -30.11 | 32.13 | -30.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 31.52 | -31.03 | 31.52 | -31.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 30.92 | -31.96 | 30.92 | -31.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | 149.70 | 30.32 | -32.88 | 30.32 | -32.88 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | 149.70 | 29.72 | -33.79 | 29.72 | -33.79 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | 149.70 | 29.13 | -34.70 | 29.13 | -34.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | 149.70 | 28.53 | -35.61 | 28.53 | -35.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | 149.70 | 27.95 | -36.51 | 27.95 | -36.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 27.36 | -37.40 | 27.36 | -37.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 26.78 | -38.30 | 26.78 | -38.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | 149.70 | 26.19 | -39.18 | 26.19 | -39.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | 149.70 | 25.62 | -40.07 | 25.62 | -40.07 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | 149.70 | 25.04 | -40.95 | 25.04 | -40.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | 149.70 | 24.47 | -41.82 | 24.47 | -41.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | 149.70 | 23.90 | -42.70 | 23.90 | -42.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 23.33 | -43.56 | 23.33 | -43.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 22.77 | -44.43 | 22.77 | -44.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | 149.70 | 22.20 | -45.29 | 22.20 | -45.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | 149.70 | 21.64 | -46.14 | 21.64 | -46.14 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | 149.70 | 21.09 | -47.00 | 21.09 | -47.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | 149.70 | 20.53 | -47.85 | 20.53 | -47.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | 149.70 | 19.98 | -48.69 | 19.98 | -48.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 19.43 | -49.53 | 19.43 | -49.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 18.88 | -50.37 | 18.88 | -50.37 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | 149.70 | 18.33 | -51.21 | 18.33 | -51.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | 149.70 | 17.79 | -52.04 | 17.79 | -52.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | 149.70 | 17.25 | -52.87 | 17.25 | -52.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | 149.70 | 16.71 | -53.69 | 16.71 | -53.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | 149.70 | 16.17 | -54.51 | 16.17 | -54.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 15.64 | -55.33 | 15.64 | -55.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 15.11 | -56.14 | 15.11 | -56.14 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | 149.70 | 14.58 | -56.95 | 14.58 | -56.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | 149.70 | 14.05 | -57.76 | 14.05 | -57.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | 149.70 | 13.52 | -58.57 | 13.52 | -58.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | 149.70 | 13.00 | -59.37 | 13.00 | -59.37 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | 149.70 | 12.47 | -60.17 | 12.47 | -60.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 11.95 | -60.96 | 11.95 | -60.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 11.43 | -61.76 | 11.43 | -61.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | 149.70 | 10.92 | -62.55 | 10.92 | -62.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | 149.70 | 10.40 | -63.33 | 10.40 | -63.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | 149.70 | 9.89 | -64.12 | 9.89 | -64.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | 149.70 | 9.38 | -64.90 | 9.38 | -64.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | 149.70 | 8.87 | -65.68 | 8.87 | -65.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | 149.70 | 8.36 | -66.45 | 8.36 | -66.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | 149.70 | 7.86 | -67.23 | 7.86 | -67.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | 149.70 | 7.35 | -68.00 | 7.35 | -68.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | 149.70 | 6.85 | -68.76 | 6.85 | -68.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
paste("Forecasting by using TBATS Model ==> ", y_lab , sep=" ")
## [1] "Forecasting by using TBATS Model ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_TBATS=tail(forecasting_tbats$mean,N_forecasting_days),Lower=tail(forecasting_tbats$lower,N_forecasting_days),Upper=tail(forecasting_tbats$upper,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_TBATS | Lower.80. | Lower.95. | Upper.80. | Upper.95. |
## +=====+============+=================+======================+===========+===========+===========+===========+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 65.60 | 5.10 | -26.92 | 126.09 | 158.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 62.12 | 0.78 | -31.69 | 123.46 | 155.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 60.77 | -1.40 | -34.31 | 122.93 | 155.84 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 59.46 | -3.52 | -36.86 | 122.45 | 155.79 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 53.35 | -10.44 | -44.20 | 117.14 | 150.91 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 49.91 | -14.65 | -48.83 | 114.47 | 148.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 49.15 | -16.17 | -50.75 | 114.47 | 149.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 45.67 | -20.40 | -55.37 | 111.74 | 146.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 44.32 | -22.49 | -57.85 | 111.12 | 146.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 43.01 | -24.52 | -60.27 | 110.55 | 146.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 36.91 | -31.35 | -67.48 | 105.16 | 141.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 33.46 | -35.49 | -71.99 | 102.41 | 138.91 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 32.70 | -36.93 | -73.79 | 102.33 | 139.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 29.23 | -41.08 | -78.29 | 99.53 | 136.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 27.87 | -43.09 | -80.66 | 98.84 | 136.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 26.57 | -45.06 | -82.97 | 98.19 | 136.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 20.46 | -51.82 | -90.07 | 92.73 | 130.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 17.01 | -55.89 | -94.48 | 89.91 | 128.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 16.25 | -57.26 | -96.18 | 89.77 | 128.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 12.78 | -61.35 | -100.59 | 86.90 | 126.14 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 11.42 | -63.30 | -102.86 | 86.15 | 125.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 10.12 | -65.21 | -105.08 | 85.44 | 125.32 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 4.01 | -71.91 | -112.09 | 79.92 | 120.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 0.57 | -75.92 | -116.41 | 77.05 | 117.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | -0.19 | -77.24 | -118.03 | 76.85 | 117.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | -3.67 | -81.27 | -122.36 | 73.93 | 115.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | -5.03 | -83.18 | -124.55 | 73.13 | 114.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | -6.33 | -85.03 | -126.69 | 72.37 | 114.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | -12.44 | -91.68 | -133.63 | 66.80 | 108.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | -15.88 | -95.65 | -137.87 | 63.88 | 106.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | -16.64 | -96.92 | -139.41 | 63.63 | 106.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | -20.12 | -100.90 | -143.67 | 60.67 | 103.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | -21.47 | -102.76 | -145.79 | 59.81 | 102.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | -22.78 | -104.57 | -147.86 | 59.01 | 102.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | -28.89 | -111.17 | -154.73 | 53.40 | 96.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | -32.33 | -115.10 | -158.91 | 50.44 | 94.25 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | -33.09 | -116.33 | -160.39 | 50.15 | 94.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | -36.57 | -120.27 | -164.59 | 47.14 | 91.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | -37.92 | -122.09 | -166.65 | 46.25 | 90.81 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | -39.23 | -123.86 | -168.66 | 45.40 | 90.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | -45.34 | -130.42 | -175.47 | 39.75 | 84.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | -48.78 | -134.31 | -179.59 | 36.75 | 82.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | -49.54 | -135.50 | -181.01 | 36.43 | 81.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | -53.01 | -139.41 | -185.15 | 33.38 | 79.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | -54.37 | -141.20 | -187.16 | 32.46 | 78.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | -55.67 | -142.92 | -189.11 | 31.58 | 77.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | -61.78 | -149.46 | -195.87 | 25.89 | 72.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | -65.23 | -153.31 | -199.94 | 22.86 | 69.48 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | -65.99 | -154.47 | -201.31 | 22.50 | 69.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | -69.46 | -158.35 | -205.40 | 19.42 | 66.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | -70.82 | -160.10 | -207.36 | 18.46 | 65.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | -72.12 | -161.79 | -209.26 | 17.55 | 65.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | -78.23 | -168.29 | -215.97 | 11.83 | 59.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | -81.67 | -172.12 | -219.99 | 8.77 | 56.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | -82.43 | -173.25 | -221.32 | 8.38 | 56.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | -85.91 | -177.09 | -225.36 | 5.27 | 53.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | -87.27 | -178.81 | -227.28 | 4.28 | 52.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | -88.57 | -180.48 | -229.14 | 3.34 | 52.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | -94.68 | -186.95 | -235.80 | -2.40 | 46.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | -98.12 | -190.75 | -239.78 | -5.50 | 43.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | -98.88 | -191.85 | -241.07 | -5.91 | 43.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | -102.36 | -195.67 | -245.07 | -9.05 | 40.35 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | -103.71 | -197.36 | -246.94 | -10.06 | 39.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | -105.02 | -199.01 | -248.76 | -11.03 | 38.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | -111.13 | -205.45 | -255.38 | -16.80 | 33.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | -114.57 | -209.22 | -259.32 | -19.92 | 30.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | -115.33 | -210.30 | -260.57 | -20.36 | 29.91 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | -118.81 | -214.09 | -264.53 | -23.52 | 26.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | -120.16 | -215.76 | -266.37 | -24.56 | 26.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | -121.47 | -217.38 | -268.15 | -25.55 | 25.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | -127.58 | -223.80 | -274.74 | -31.35 | 19.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | -131.02 | -227.55 | -278.64 | -34.49 | 16.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | -131.78 | -228.60 | -279.85 | -34.96 | 16.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | -135.25 | -232.37 | -283.78 | -38.14 | 13.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | -136.61 | -234.02 | -285.58 | -39.20 | 12.36 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | -137.91 | -235.61 | -287.33 | -40.22 | 11.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | -144.02 | -242.01 | -293.88 | -46.03 | 5.84 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | -147.47 | -245.74 | -297.76 | -49.20 | 2.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | -148.23 | -246.77 | -298.93 | -49.69 | 2.48 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | -151.70 | -250.52 | -302.83 | -52.89 | -0.58 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | -153.06 | -252.14 | -304.60 | -53.97 | -1.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | -154.36 | -253.72 | -306.31 | -55.01 | -2.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | -160.47 | -260.10 | -312.83 | -60.85 | -8.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | -163.92 | -263.80 | -316.67 | -64.03 | -11.16 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | -164.67 | -264.81 | -317.82 | -64.54 | -11.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | -168.15 | -268.54 | -321.69 | -67.76 | -14.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | -169.51 | -270.15 | -323.42 | -68.86 | -15.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | -170.81 | -271.70 | -325.11 | -69.92 | -16.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | -176.92 | -278.06 | -331.60 | -75.78 | -22.24 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | -180.36 | -281.75 | -335.41 | -78.98 | -25.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | -181.12 | -282.74 | -336.53 | -79.51 | -25.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | -184.60 | -286.45 | -340.37 | -82.75 | -28.83 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | -185.95 | -288.04 | -342.08 | -83.87 | -29.83 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | -187.26 | -289.58 | -343.74 | -84.94 | -30.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | -193.37 | -295.92 | -350.20 | -90.82 | -36.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | -196.81 | -299.58 | -353.99 | -94.04 | -39.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | -197.57 | -300.56 | -355.08 | -94.58 | -40.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | -201.05 | -304.25 | -358.89 | -97.84 | -43.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | -202.40 | -305.83 | -360.57 | -98.98 | -44.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | -203.71 | -307.34 | -362.21 | -100.07 | -45.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | -209.82 | -313.67 | -368.64 | -105.96 | -50.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | -213.26 | -317.32 | -372.40 | -109.20 | -54.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | -214.02 | -318.28 | -373.47 | -109.76 | -54.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | -217.49 | -321.96 | -377.26 | -113.03 | -57.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | -218.85 | -323.51 | -378.92 | -114.19 | -58.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | -220.15 | -325.01 | -380.52 | -115.29 | -59.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | -226.26 | -331.32 | -386.94 | -121.20 | -65.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | -229.71 | -334.96 | -390.67 | -124.46 | -68.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | -230.47 | -335.90 | -391.72 | -125.03 | -69.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | -233.94 | -339.57 | -395.48 | -128.32 | -72.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | -235.30 | -341.11 | -397.12 | -129.49 | -73.48 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | -236.60 | -342.59 | -398.70 | -130.61 | -74.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+----------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
paste("Forecasting by using Holt's Linear Trend Model ==> ", y_lab , sep=" ")
## [1] "Forecasting by using Holt's Linear Trend Model ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_holt=tail(forecasting_holt$mean,N_forecasting_days),Lower=tail(forecasting_holt$lower,N_forecasting_days),Upper=tail(forecasting_holt$upper,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_holt | Lower.80. | Lower.95. | Upper.80. | Upper.95. |
## +=====+============+=================+=====================+===========+===========+===========+===========+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 85.47 | 9.44 | -17.53 | 179.94 | 234.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 83.53 | 6.74 | -21.62 | 180.28 | 236.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 81.60 | 4.23 | -25.86 | 180.64 | 238.09 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 79.67 | 1.97 | -30.24 | 180.99 | 239.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 77.76 | 0.17 | -34.76 | 181.36 | 241.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 75.86 | -1.34 | -39.40 | 181.74 | 243.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 73.96 | -3.50 | -44.15 | 182.13 | 245.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 72.07 | -5.97 | -49.02 | 182.53 | 247.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 70.19 | -8.66 | -53.98 | 182.93 | 249.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 68.33 | -11.51 | -59.05 | 183.35 | 251.24 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 66.47 | -14.51 | -64.21 | 183.78 | 253.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 64.62 | -17.64 | -69.46 | 184.22 | 255.16 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 62.78 | -20.89 | -74.80 | 184.67 | 257.15 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 60.95 | -24.23 | -80.23 | 185.13 | 259.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 59.13 | -27.68 | -85.74 | 185.61 | 261.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 57.32 | -31.21 | -91.33 | 186.09 | 263.26 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 55.52 | -34.83 | -97.00 | 186.59 | 265.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 53.73 | -38.52 | -102.75 | 187.10 | 267.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 51.95 | -42.29 | -108.58 | 187.62 | 269.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 50.19 | -46.14 | -114.48 | 188.15 | 271.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 48.43 | -50.05 | -120.46 | 188.69 | 273.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 46.69 | -54.04 | -126.50 | 189.25 | 276.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 44.96 | -58.08 | -132.62 | 189.81 | 278.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 43.24 | -62.19 | -138.81 | 190.39 | 280.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 41.54 | -66.36 | -145.06 | 190.98 | 282.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 39.84 | -70.59 | -151.39 | 191.59 | 285.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 38.16 | -74.87 | -157.78 | 192.21 | 287.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 36.50 | -79.22 | -164.24 | 192.83 | 289.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 34.84 | -83.61 | -170.76 | 193.48 | 292.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 33.21 | -88.07 | -177.35 | 194.13 | 294.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 31.58 | -92.57 | -184.00 | 194.80 | 296.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 29.98 | -97.12 | -190.72 | 195.47 | 299.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 28.38 | -101.73 | -197.49 | 196.17 | 301.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 26.81 | -106.39 | -204.33 | 196.87 | 304.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 25.25 | -111.09 | -211.24 | 197.59 | 306.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 23.71 | -115.85 | -218.20 | 198.32 | 309.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 22.19 | -120.65 | -225.22 | 199.06 | 311.66 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 20.68 | -125.50 | -232.31 | 199.81 | 314.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 19.20 | -130.39 | -239.45 | 200.58 | 316.81 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 17.74 | -135.33 | -246.65 | 201.36 | 319.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 16.30 | -140.31 | -253.91 | 202.15 | 322.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 14.88 | -145.34 | -261.23 | 202.96 | 324.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 13.49 | -150.42 | -268.61 | 203.78 | 327.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 12.12 | -155.53 | -276.04 | 204.61 | 330.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 10.78 | -160.69 | -283.53 | 205.45 | 332.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 9.48 | -165.90 | -291.08 | 206.31 | 335.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 8.20 | -171.14 | -298.69 | 207.18 | 338.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 6.96 | -176.43 | -306.35 | 208.06 | 341.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 5.76 | -181.76 | -314.06 | 208.96 | 344.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 4.61 | -187.13 | -321.83 | 209.87 | 346.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 3.50 | -192.54 | -329.66 | 210.79 | 349.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 2.46 | -197.99 | -337.54 | 211.72 | 352.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 1.50 | -203.48 | -345.48 | 212.67 | 355.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 0.64 | -209.01 | -353.47 | 213.63 | 358.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 0.00 | -214.57 | -361.52 | 214.60 | 361.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | -0.63 | -220.18 | -369.61 | 215.58 | 364.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | -1.49 | -225.83 | -377.77 | 216.58 | 367.58 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | -2.45 | -231.52 | -385.97 | 217.59 | 370.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | -3.49 | -237.24 | -394.23 | 218.62 | 373.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | -4.60 | -243.00 | -402.54 | 219.66 | 376.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | -5.75 | -248.80 | -410.90 | 220.71 | 379.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | -6.95 | -254.64 | -419.32 | 221.77 | 383.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | -8.19 | -260.51 | -427.79 | 222.84 | 386.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | -9.46 | -266.42 | -436.31 | 223.93 | 389.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | -10.77 | -272.37 | -444.88 | 225.03 | 392.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | -12.11 | -278.35 | -453.50 | 226.15 | 395.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | -13.47 | -284.38 | -462.18 | 227.28 | 399.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | -14.87 | -290.43 | -470.90 | 228.42 | 402.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | -16.28 | -296.53 | -479.68 | 229.57 | 405.91 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | -17.72 | -302.65 | -488.50 | 230.74 | 409.26 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | -19.18 | -308.82 | -497.38 | 231.92 | 412.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | -20.67 | -315.02 | -506.31 | 233.11 | 416.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | -22.17 | -321.25 | -515.29 | 234.31 | 419.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | -23.69 | -327.52 | -524.32 | 235.53 | 422.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | -25.23 | -333.83 | -533.40 | 236.76 | 426.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | -26.79 | -340.17 | -542.52 | 238.01 | 429.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | -28.37 | -346.54 | -551.70 | 239.26 | 433.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | -29.96 | -352.95 | -560.93 | 240.53 | 437.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | -31.57 | -359.40 | -570.20 | 241.82 | 440.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | -33.19 | -365.87 | -579.53 | 243.11 | 444.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | -34.83 | -372.38 | -588.90 | 244.42 | 447.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | -36.48 | -378.93 | -598.33 | 245.74 | 451.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | -38.14 | -385.51 | -607.80 | 247.08 | 455.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | -39.82 | -392.12 | -617.32 | 248.42 | 458.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | -41.52 | -398.77 | -626.89 | 249.78 | 462.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | -43.22 | -405.44 | -636.50 | 251.16 | 466.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | -44.94 | -412.16 | -646.17 | 252.54 | 470.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | -46.67 | -418.90 | -655.88 | 253.94 | 474.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | -48.41 | -425.68 | -665.64 | 255.36 | 477.88 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | -50.17 | -432.49 | -675.45 | 256.78 | 481.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | -51.93 | -439.33 | -685.30 | 258.22 | 485.63 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | -53.71 | -446.21 | -695.21 | 259.67 | 489.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | -55.50 | -453.12 | -705.16 | 261.13 | 493.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | -57.30 | -460.06 | -715.16 | 262.61 | 497.46 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | -59.11 | -467.03 | -725.20 | 264.10 | 501.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | -60.93 | -474.04 | -735.29 | 265.61 | 505.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | -62.76 | -481.07 | -745.43 | 267.12 | 509.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | -64.60 | -488.14 | -755.62 | 268.65 | 513.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | -66.45 | -495.24 | -765.85 | 270.19 | 517.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | -68.31 | -502.38 | -776.13 | 271.75 | 521.81 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | -70.17 | -509.54 | -786.45 | 273.32 | 525.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | -72.05 | -516.73 | -796.83 | 274.90 | 530.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | -73.94 | -523.96 | -807.24 | 276.49 | 534.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | -75.83 | -531.22 | -817.71 | 278.10 | 538.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | -77.74 | -538.51 | -828.22 | 279.72 | 542.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | -79.65 | -545.83 | -838.77 | 281.35 | 547.08 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | -81.58 | -553.18 | -849.38 | 283.00 | 551.38 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | -83.51 | -560.56 | -860.02 | 284.66 | 555.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | -85.44 | -567.98 | -870.72 | 286.33 | 560.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | -87.39 | -575.42 | -881.46 | 288.02 | 564.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | -89.35 | -582.89 | -892.24 | 289.72 | 568.84 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | -91.31 | -590.40 | -903.07 | 291.43 | 573.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
paste("Forecasting by using ARIMA Model ==> ", y_lab , sep=" ")
## [1] "Forecasting by using ARIMA Model ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_auto.arima=tail(forecasting_auto_arima$mean,N_forecasting_days),Lower=tail(forecasting_auto_arima$lower,N_forecasting_days),Upper=tail(forecasting_auto_arima$upper,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_auto.arima | Lower.80. | Lower.95. | Upper.80. | Upper.95. |
## +=====+============+=================+===========================+===========+===========+===========+===========+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 150.47 | 89.89 | 57.82 | 211.05 | 243.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 150.47 | 88.96 | 56.40 | 211.98 | 244.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 150.47 | 88.05 | 55.00 | 212.89 | 245.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 87.15 | 53.63 | 213.79 | 247.32 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 86.26 | 52.27 | 214.68 | 248.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 150.47 | 85.39 | 50.93 | 215.56 | 250.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 150.47 | 84.52 | 49.61 | 216.42 | 251.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 150.47 | 83.67 | 48.31 | 217.27 | 252.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 150.47 | 82.83 | 47.02 | 218.11 | 253.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 150.47 | 82.00 | 45.75 | 218.95 | 255.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 81.17 | 44.49 | 219.77 | 256.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 80.36 | 43.25 | 220.58 | 257.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 150.47 | 79.56 | 42.02 | 221.38 | 258.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 150.47 | 78.77 | 40.81 | 222.18 | 260.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 150.47 | 77.98 | 39.61 | 222.96 | 261.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 150.47 | 77.21 | 38.42 | 223.74 | 262.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 150.47 | 76.44 | 37.25 | 224.51 | 263.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 75.68 | 36.08 | 225.27 | 264.86 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 74.92 | 34.93 | 226.02 | 266.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 150.47 | 74.18 | 33.79 | 226.76 | 267.15 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 150.47 | 73.44 | 32.66 | 227.50 | 268.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 150.47 | 72.71 | 31.55 | 228.23 | 269.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 150.47 | 71.99 | 30.44 | 228.96 | 270.50 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 150.47 | 71.27 | 29.34 | 229.67 | 271.60 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 70.56 | 28.25 | 230.39 | 272.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 69.85 | 27.17 | 231.09 | 273.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 150.47 | 69.15 | 26.11 | 231.79 | 274.84 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 150.47 | 68.46 | 25.05 | 232.48 | 275.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 150.47 | 67.77 | 24.00 | 233.17 | 276.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 150.47 | 67.09 | 22.95 | 233.85 | 277.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 150.47 | 66.42 | 21.92 | 234.53 | 279.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 65.75 | 20.89 | 235.20 | 280.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 65.08 | 19.88 | 235.86 | 281.07 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 150.47 | 64.42 | 18.87 | 236.52 | 282.08 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 150.47 | 63.76 | 17.87 | 237.18 | 283.08 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 150.47 | 63.11 | 16.87 | 237.83 | 284.07 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 150.47 | 62.47 | 15.88 | 238.47 | 285.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 150.47 | 61.83 | 14.90 | 239.11 | 286.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 61.19 | 13.93 | 239.75 | 287.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 60.56 | 12.97 | 240.38 | 287.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 150.47 | 59.93 | 12.01 | 241.01 | 288.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 150.47 | 59.31 | 11.05 | 241.63 | 289.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 150.47 | 58.69 | 10.11 | 242.25 | 290.84 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 150.47 | 58.08 | 9.17 | 242.86 | 291.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 150.47 | 57.47 | 8.23 | 243.48 | 292.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 56.86 | 7.31 | 244.08 | 293.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 56.26 | 6.39 | 244.68 | 294.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 150.47 | 55.66 | 5.47 | 245.28 | 295.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 150.47 | 55.06 | 4.56 | 245.88 | 296.38 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 150.47 | 54.47 | 3.66 | 246.47 | 297.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 150.47 | 53.89 | 2.76 | 247.06 | 298.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 150.47 | 53.30 | 1.86 | 247.64 | 299.08 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 52.72 | 0.98 | 248.22 | 299.97 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 52.14 | 0.09 | 248.80 | 300.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 150.47 | 51.57 | -0.78 | 249.37 | 301.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | 150.47 | 51.00 | -1.66 | 249.94 | 302.60 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | 150.47 | 50.43 | -2.52 | 250.51 | 303.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | 150.47 | 49.87 | -3.39 | 251.07 | 304.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | 150.47 | 49.31 | -4.25 | 251.63 | 305.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 48.75 | -5.10 | 252.19 | 306.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 48.20 | -5.95 | 252.75 | 306.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | 150.47 | 47.64 | -6.79 | 253.30 | 307.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | 150.47 | 47.09 | -7.63 | 253.85 | 308.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | 150.47 | 46.55 | -8.46 | 254.39 | 309.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | 150.47 | 46.01 | -9.30 | 254.94 | 310.24 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | 150.47 | 45.47 | -10.12 | 255.48 | 311.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 44.93 | -10.94 | 256.01 | 311.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 44.39 | -11.76 | 256.55 | 312.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | 150.47 | 43.86 | -12.58 | 257.08 | 313.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | 150.47 | 43.33 | -13.38 | 257.61 | 314.33 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | 150.47 | 42.80 | -14.19 | 258.14 | 315.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | 150.47 | 42.28 | -14.99 | 258.66 | 315.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | 150.47 | 41.76 | -15.79 | 259.18 | 316.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 41.24 | -16.58 | 259.70 | 317.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 40.72 | -17.37 | 260.22 | 318.32 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | 150.47 | 40.21 | -18.16 | 260.73 | 319.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | 150.47 | 39.70 | -18.94 | 261.25 | 319.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | 150.47 | 39.19 | -19.72 | 261.76 | 320.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | 150.47 | 38.68 | -20.50 | 262.26 | 321.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | 150.47 | 38.17 | -21.27 | 262.77 | 322.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 37.67 | -22.04 | 263.27 | 322.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 37.17 | -22.81 | 263.77 | 323.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | 150.47 | 36.67 | -23.57 | 264.27 | 324.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | 150.47 | 36.18 | -24.33 | 264.77 | 325.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | 150.47 | 35.68 | -25.08 | 265.26 | 326.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | 150.47 | 35.19 | -25.84 | 265.75 | 326.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | 150.47 | 34.70 | -26.58 | 266.24 | 327.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 34.21 | -27.33 | 266.73 | 328.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 33.73 | -28.07 | 267.22 | 329.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | 150.47 | 33.24 | -28.81 | 267.70 | 329.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | 150.47 | 32.76 | -29.55 | 268.18 | 330.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | 150.47 | 32.28 | -30.28 | 268.66 | 331.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | 150.47 | 31.80 | -31.01 | 269.14 | 331.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | 150.47 | 31.33 | -31.74 | 269.61 | 332.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 30.85 | -32.47 | 270.09 | 333.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 30.38 | -33.19 | 270.56 | 334.13 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | 150.47 | 29.91 | -33.91 | 271.03 | 334.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | 150.47 | 29.44 | -34.62 | 271.50 | 335.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | 150.47 | 28.98 | -35.34 | 271.97 | 336.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | 150.47 | 28.51 | -36.05 | 272.43 | 336.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | 150.47 | 28.05 | -36.76 | 272.89 | 337.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 27.59 | -37.46 | 273.35 | 338.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 27.13 | -38.17 | 273.81 | 339.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | 150.47 | 26.67 | -38.87 | 274.27 | 339.81 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | 150.47 | 26.21 | -39.56 | 274.73 | 340.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | 150.47 | 25.76 | -40.26 | 275.18 | 341.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | 150.47 | 25.31 | -40.95 | 275.64 | 341.89 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | 150.47 | 24.86 | -41.64 | 276.09 | 342.58 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | 150.47 | 24.41 | -42.33 | 276.54 | 343.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | 150.47 | 23.96 | -43.01 | 276.98 | 343.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | 150.47 | 23.51 | -43.70 | 277.43 | 344.64 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | 150.47 | 23.07 | -44.38 | 277.88 | 345.32 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
paste("Forecasting by using NNAR Model ==> ", y_lab , sep=" ")
## [1] "Forecasting by using NNAR Model ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_NNAR=tail(forecasting_NNAR$mean,N_forecasting_days))), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_NNAR |
## +=====+============+=================+=====================+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 142.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 143.11 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 143.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 143.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 143.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 143.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 143.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 144.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 144.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 144.63 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 144.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 145.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 145.37 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 145.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 145.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 146.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 146.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 146.88 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 147.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 147.60 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 147.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 148.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 148.83 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 149.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 149.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 150.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 150.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 151.37 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 151.97 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 152.60 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 153.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 154.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 154.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 155.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 156.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 157.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 158.44 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 159.56 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 160.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 162.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 163.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 165.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 167.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 169.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 171.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 174.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 177.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 181.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 185.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 190.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 195.45 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 200.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 206.35 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 212.29 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 218.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | 225.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | 232.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | 239.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | 247.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | 255.62 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | 263.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | 270.92 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | 278.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | 284.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | 290.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | 295.79 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | 300.36 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | 304.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | 307.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | 309.70 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | 311.38 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | 312.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | 312.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | 312.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | 311.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | 310.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | 308.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | 306.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | 303.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | 299.83 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | 295.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | 291.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | 286.36 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | 280.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | 273.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | 264.17 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | 253.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | 239.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | 221.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | 202.63 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | 183.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | 166.16 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | 154.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | 148.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | 143.20 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | 136.88 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | 133.61 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | 131.68 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | 130.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | 129.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | 128.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | 127.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | 126.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | 125.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | 125.48 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | 124.86 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | 124.30 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | 123.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | 123.25 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | 122.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | 122.25 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | 121.73 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+---------------------+
paste("Forecasting by using SIR Model ==> ", y_lab , sep=" ")
## [1] "Forecasting by using SIR Model ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk"
print(ascii(data.frame(FD,forecating_date=forecasting_data_by_name,forecasting_by_SIR=result_SIR$I)), type = "rest")
##
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | | FD | forecating_date | forecasting_by_SIR |
## +=====+============+=================+====================+
## | 1 | 2021-04-10 | Saturday | 317.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 2 | 2021-04-11 | Sunday | 317.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 3 | 2021-04-12 | Monday | 318.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 4 | 2021-04-13 | Tuesday | 318.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 5 | 2021-04-14 | Wednesday | 319.09 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 6 | 2021-04-15 | Thursday | 319.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 7 | 2021-04-16 | Friday | 319.65 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 8 | 2021-04-17 | Saturday | 319.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 9 | 2021-04-18 | Sunday | 319.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 10 | 2021-04-19 | Monday | 319.85 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 11 | 2021-04-20 | Tuesday | 319.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 12 | 2021-04-21 | Wednesday | 319.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 13 | 2021-04-22 | Thursday | 319.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 14 | 2021-04-23 | Friday | 318.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 15 | 2021-04-24 | Saturday | 318.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 16 | 2021-04-25 | Sunday | 318.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 17 | 2021-04-26 | Monday | 317.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 18 | 2021-04-27 | Tuesday | 316.76 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 19 | 2021-04-28 | Wednesday | 316.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 20 | 2021-04-29 | Thursday | 315.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 21 | 2021-04-30 | Friday | 314.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 22 | 2021-05-01 | Saturday | 313.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 23 | 2021-05-02 | Sunday | 312.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 24 | 2021-05-03 | Monday | 311.08 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 25 | 2021-05-04 | Tuesday | 309.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 26 | 2021-05-05 | Wednesday | 308.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 27 | 2021-05-06 | Thursday | 307.23 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 28 | 2021-05-07 | Friday | 305.80 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 29 | 2021-05-08 | Saturday | 304.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 30 | 2021-05-09 | Sunday | 302.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 31 | 2021-05-10 | Monday | 301.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 32 | 2021-05-11 | Tuesday | 299.43 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 33 | 2021-05-12 | Wednesday | 297.67 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 34 | 2021-05-13 | Thursday | 295.86 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 35 | 2021-05-14 | Friday | 293.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 36 | 2021-05-15 | Saturday | 292.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 37 | 2021-05-16 | Sunday | 290.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 38 | 2021-05-17 | Monday | 288.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 39 | 2021-05-18 | Tuesday | 285.93 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 40 | 2021-05-19 | Wednesday | 283.78 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 41 | 2021-05-20 | Thursday | 281.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 42 | 2021-05-21 | Friday | 279.35 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 43 | 2021-05-22 | Saturday | 277.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 44 | 2021-05-23 | Sunday | 274.74 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 45 | 2021-05-24 | Monday | 272.37 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 46 | 2021-05-25 | Tuesday | 269.96 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 47 | 2021-05-26 | Wednesday | 267.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 48 | 2021-05-27 | Thursday | 265.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 49 | 2021-05-28 | Friday | 262.53 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 50 | 2021-05-29 | Saturday | 259.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 51 | 2021-05-30 | Sunday | 257.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 52 | 2021-05-31 | Monday | 254.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 53 | 2021-06-01 | Tuesday | 252.19 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 54 | 2021-06-02 | Wednesday | 249.54 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 55 | 2021-06-03 | Thursday | 246.87 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 56 | 2021-06-04 | Friday | 244.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 57 | 2021-06-05 | Saturday | 241.47 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 58 | 2021-06-06 | Sunday | 238.75 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 59 | 2021-06-07 | Monday | 236.01 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 60 | 2021-06-08 | Tuesday | 233.26 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 61 | 2021-06-09 | Wednesday | 230.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 62 | 2021-06-10 | Thursday | 227.72 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 63 | 2021-06-11 | Friday | 224.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 64 | 2021-06-12 | Saturday | 222.15 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 65 | 2021-06-13 | Sunday | 219.36 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 66 | 2021-06-14 | Monday | 216.57 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 67 | 2021-06-15 | Tuesday | 213.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 68 | 2021-06-16 | Wednesday | 210.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 69 | 2021-06-17 | Thursday | 208.18 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 70 | 2021-06-18 | Friday | 205.39 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 71 | 2021-06-19 | Saturday | 202.60 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 72 | 2021-06-20 | Sunday | 199.82 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 73 | 2021-06-21 | Monday | 197.04 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 74 | 2021-06-22 | Tuesday | 194.28 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 75 | 2021-06-23 | Wednesday | 191.52 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 76 | 2021-06-24 | Thursday | 188.77 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 77 | 2021-06-25 | Friday | 186.03 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 78 | 2021-06-26 | Saturday | 183.31 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 79 | 2021-06-27 | Sunday | 180.59 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 80 | 2021-06-28 | Monday | 177.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 81 | 2021-06-29 | Tuesday | 175.21 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 82 | 2021-06-30 | Wednesday | 172.55 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 83 | 2021-07-01 | Thursday | 169.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 84 | 2021-07-02 | Friday | 167.27 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 85 | 2021-07-03 | Saturday | 164.66 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 86 | 2021-07-04 | Sunday | 162.06 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 87 | 2021-07-05 | Monday | 159.49 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 88 | 2021-07-06 | Tuesday | 156.94 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 89 | 2021-07-07 | Wednesday | 154.41 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 90 | 2021-07-08 | Thursday | 151.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 91 | 2021-07-09 | Friday | 149.42 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 92 | 2021-07-10 | Saturday | 146.95 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 93 | 2021-07-11 | Sunday | 144.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 94 | 2021-07-12 | Monday | 142.10 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 95 | 2021-07-13 | Tuesday | 139.71 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 96 | 2021-07-14 | Wednesday | 137.34 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 97 | 2021-07-15 | Thursday | 135.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 98 | 2021-07-16 | Friday | 132.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 99 | 2021-07-17 | Saturday | 130.40 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 100 | 2021-07-18 | Sunday | 128.14 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 101 | 2021-07-19 | Monday | 125.90 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 102 | 2021-07-20 | Tuesday | 123.69 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 103 | 2021-07-21 | Wednesday | 121.51 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 104 | 2021-07-22 | Thursday | 119.35 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 105 | 2021-07-23 | Friday | 117.22 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 106 | 2021-07-24 | Saturday | 115.12 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 107 | 2021-07-25 | Sunday | 113.05 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 108 | 2021-07-26 | Monday | 111.00 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 109 | 2021-07-27 | Tuesday | 108.98 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 110 | 2021-07-28 | Wednesday | 106.99 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 111 | 2021-07-29 | Thursday | 105.02 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
## | 112 | 2021-07-30 | Friday | 103.09 |
## +-----+------------+-----------------+--------------------+
result<-c(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6)
table.error<-data.frame(country.name,NNAR.model=MAPE_Mean_All_NNAR, BATS.Model=MAPE_Mean_All.bats_Model,TBATS.Model=MAPE_Mean_All.TBATS_Model,Holt.Model=MAPE_Mean_All.Holt_Model,ARIMA.Model=MAPE_Mean_All.ARIMA_Model,SIR.Model=MAPE_Mean_SIR,Best.Model=result)
library(ascii)
print(ascii(table(table.error)), type = "rest")
##
## +---+--------------+------------+------------+-------------+------------+-------------+-----------+------------+------+
## | | country.name | NNAR.model | BATS.Model | TBATS.Model | Holt.Model | ARIMA.Model | SIR.Model | Best.Model | Freq |
## +===+==============+============+============+=============+============+=============+===========+============+======+
## | 1 | Chelyabinsk | 6.984 | 12.378 | 20.391 | 13.438 | 12.949 | 109.464 | NNAR Model | 1.00 |
## +---+--------------+------------+------------+-------------+------------+-------------+-----------+------------+------+
MAPE.Value<-c(MAPE_Mean_All_NNAR,MAPE_Mean_All.bats_Model,MAPE_Mean_All.TBATS_Model,MAPE_Mean_All.Holt_Model,MAPE_Mean_All.ARIMA_Model,MAPE_Mean_SIR)
Model<-c("NNAR.model","BATS.Model","TBATS.Model","Holt.Model","ARIMA.Model" ,"SIR Model")
channel_data<-data.frame(Model,MAPE.Value)
# Normally, the entire expression below would be assigned to an object, but we're
# going bare bones here.
ggplot(channel_data, aes(x = Model, y = MAPE.Value)) +
geom_bar(stat = "identity") +
geom_text(aes(label = MAPE.Value)) + # x AND y INHERITED. WE JUST NEED TO SPECIFY "label"
coord_flip() +
scale_y_continuous(expand = c(0, 0))
message("System finished Modelling and Forecasting by using BATS, TBATS, Holt's Linear Trend,ARIMA Model, and SIR Model ==>",y_lab, sep=" ")
## System finished Modelling and Forecasting by using BATS, TBATS, Holt's Linear Trend,ARIMA Model, and SIR Model ==>Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk
message(" Thank you for using our System For Modelling and Forecasting ==> ",y_lab, sep=" ")
## Thank you for using our System For Modelling and Forecasting ==> Third wave infection cases in Chelyabinsk