Text in bold to be manually edited.

Profile for Ethiopia

Recent evolution of relevant indicators, including but not limited to SDG2

Ethiopia is a landlocked country in Eastern Africa, with a population of approximately 112.08 million people in 2019. The country has a tropical climate with variable temperatures, but with a relatively high elevation ranging from 800-1200m, cooler temperatures are experienced the most. Agriculture forms the basis of the Malawian economy, representing over 33.52% of GDP and employs over 66.63% of the labor force. So agricultural remains highly inefficient in generating income: value added per worker in agriculture is about of what prevails in the rest of the Ethiopia economy. Approximately 70% of agricultural production comes from smallholder farmers (GoM, 2021).

Poverty remains high in Ethiopia compared to Africa South of the Sahara (30.8 versus 42% in 2016) (World Bank, Development Research Group 2021). The prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) is similar to the level in the region. In 2018, the prevalence undernourishment was 19.7 in Ethiopia versus an average of 18% in Africa South of the Sahara (FAO 2021). At the same time, food insecurity remains average especially in rural areas, with 14.1% of the population experiencing severe food insecurity in 2018, versus 21% on average in Africa South of the Sahara for the same year (FAO 2021). These numbers reflect the story that many of the poor in Ethiopia are farmers, who, while producing sufficient calories at the annual level (as reflected by the PoU) face a high burden from crop failures and the hungry season covering the time between planting and harvesting (as reflected by the prevalence of severe food insecurity). Poverty and food security indicators for Ethiopia are shown in Figure 1 below. As undernourishment has remained roughly constant over the last decade and population has grown, the volume of agricultural production has increased.

Figure 1. Prevalence of Poverty and Hunger in Ethiopia

Figure 1. Prevalence of Poverty and Hunger

Figure 1. Prevalence of Poverty and Hunger

Sources: Poverty is poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 per day (2011 PPP) (% of population), from PovcalNet via World Bank Open Data (World Bank, Development Research Group 2021). Undernourishment is the prevalence of undernourishment (percent) from FAOSTAT (FAO 2021). Severe Food Insecurity is the prevalence of severe food insecurity in the total population (percent) from FAOSTAT (FAO 2021).

– Section on diet to add?. we could make it automatic too–

Figure 2. Nutrition in Ethiopia by selected population groups

Source: Wasting is the percentage of children under 5 years affected by wasting (percent), 2018. Stunting is the percentage of children under 5 years of age who are stunted (percent), 2018. Anemia is the prevalence of anemia among women of reproductive age (15-49 years), 2016. All indicators are sourced from FAOSTAT (FAO 2021).

In terms of specific groups of population, 7.2 percent of children under 5 are affected by wasting and 36.8 percent are affected by stunting (Figure 2). While wasting rates have remained variable over the last decade, stunting has decreased on average, from NA to 36.8 percent in 2019. Anemia affects one in 4 women of reproductive age, slightly lower than the average for Africa South of the Sahara. Prevalence of obesity is very low in the country (4 percent in 2008 to 6 percent in 2016, FAO 2021). In other countries, overnutrition has often risen with economic development leading to a double burden of malnutrition and overnutrition (WHO 2017). Ethiopia might avoid the double burden by adopting policies to promote healthy and sufficient diets.

Ethiopia devotes over 70% of all arable land to maize production, which covers almost half of the Ethiopian diet consists of maize. The country is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly in the agriculture and water sector. -With approximately 97.92% of all cultivated land in the country under rain-fed agricultural production, thus the vulnerability of agricultural sector is very sensitive to climate change and weather variability (see Section 3).

Baseline results regarding a Business-as-Usual situation based on modelling results

Existing projections, based on the Ceres2030 model, and without considering additional investments are summarized in Table 1. As we see, Ethiopia remains one of the country with the strongest demographic pressure, with an annual population growth rate of about xx% in the next decade. Because of the low GDP per capita in the country, even with the relatively strong economic growth projected at xx% per year, the GDP per capita income will remain among the lowest in the world.

To be added base on GDX

The agricultural sector will continue to develop to answer the increase in local food demand, in particular in animal products. This will lead to a significant increase in production emissions, by 4.4%. Land use change from forestry to agriculture will continue to grow leading to a reduction in forested area by about 10% in the next 10 years. Both trends show the need to take important measures, in particular in terms of sustainable intensification to allow the country to achieve its environmental objectives. Finally, the economic growth and the expansion of agricultural production will contribute to a consistent trend in the reduction of chronic hunger and extreme poverty. While eliminating the former appears to be within reach, as shown in the Ceres2030 project, the poverty level will remain extremely high even in 2030.

ODA profile

Core contents

Finally, the country’s strategy to promote resilience and sustainability recognizes the role of official development assistance (ODA). In total, 1,377.8 million constant 2018 USD was disbursed to projects directly affecting the food system in Ethiopia on average annually from 2014-2018, accounting for 50% of ODA grants and philanthropic donations (OECD 2021). The United States accounted for 36% of this disbursement, making it by far the top donor to projects in the food system in Ethiopia The next nine donors account for a further 724.7 million constant 2018 USD (Table 6). In this context, the country’s resilience strategy (GOM, 2018) stresses the importance of foreign assistance by for example agreements such as the Grand Bargain reached at the World Humanitarian Summit, the New Alliance for Food and Nutrition Security, the Scaling up Nutrition Movement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, and the United Convention to Combat Desertification. The strategy also recognizes the responsibility of the country to implement effective measures to prevent recurrent and predictable seasonable shocks from becoming recurrent crises.

Table 6 – Top 10 Donors by Average Annual Disbursement, 2014-2018
DonorName Average Annual ODA
United States 492.3
United Kingdom 222.4
EU Institutions 158.6
Canada 81.2
Germany 72.0
Netherlands 50.4
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation 39.9
Sweden 36.2
Norway 35.8
Japan 28.1

Finally, an extensive list of programs and initiatives funded by GIZ, the EU and USAID which are relevant to the nexus on climate change, food security and nutrition is presented in Appendix 2. This list demonstrates that there are projects that link agriculture and food systems with climate change resilience and adaptation, projects that link agriculture and food systems to nutrition diversification, but very few that link all three components of the nexus in one project. Additional projects were identified during the on-going consultations with key stakeholders in the country.

Additional materials

Overall picture for Food security relevant spendings.

Or a treemap version - to get the big picture

By navigating the overall ODA allocation through a treemap surface:

MAlawi highly depends on ODA grants to support its agricultural programs:

Or how the support to has evolved overtime: