04/02/2021

Overview

  • Data Cleaning
  • Calculations
  • Outcome
  • Conclusion

Variables Created

  • Organic Growth Pre-Covid (’17 to ’19)

  • Organic Growth from ’17 to ’20

  • Potential Growth for 2021

    • Covid 19 Penalty

Volume

Volume Tables

  • Organic Growth before Covid

  • Organic Growth during Covid

  • Potential Organic Growth for 2021

Volume Tables

Organic Growth from ’17 to ’19

PREMISE CATEGORY Total
OFF SPIRITS 0.06
OFF WINE -0.03
ON SPIRITS 0.04
ON WINE 0.01

Organic Growth with Covid

PREMISE CATEGORY Total
OFF SPIRITS 0.10
OFF WINE 0.02
ON SPIRITS -0.14
ON WINE -0.16
  • Off Premise Spirits increased 4% while Wine increased 5% in the pandemic.
  • On Premise numbers suffered significantly

Possible Projections for 2021

PREMISE CATEGORY Total
OFF SPIRITS 0.06
OFF WINE 0.01
ON SPIRITS -0.07
ON WINE -0.09

  • The year 2020 affected On Premise Business tremendously, but it is unlikely to face a similar year in 2021

  • With mass vaccinations, the On premise business should start improving.

  • The highs in Off premise should reach normal levels as well

Nielsen Numbers in Volume for ’21

  • Nielsen

    Premise Category Total
    OFF Spirits 8.00%
    OFF Wine 3.00%
    ON Spirits N/A
    ON Wine N/A

  • Slightly better than our numbers for 2021

Revenue

Revenue Tables

Organic Growth from ’17 to ’19

PREMISE CATEGORY Total
OFF SPIRITS 0.05
OFF WINE -0.02
ON SPIRITS 0.04
ON WINE 0.03

Organic Growth with Covid

PREMISE CATEGORY Total
OFF SPIRITS 0.10
OFF WINE 0.07
ON SPIRITS -0.14
ON WINE -0.13
  • Off Premise Spirits increased 5% while Wine increased 9% in the pandemic.
  • On Premise also suffered in terms of revenue, yet to a lesser degree than volume

Possible Projections for 2021

  • On Premise revenue will improve, especially in the second half of the year

  • Off Premise mania, will decrease from the pick on the pandemic

PREMISE CATEGORY Total
OFF SPIRITS 0.07
OFF WINE 0.03
ON SPIRITS -0.07
ON WINE -0.07

Nielsen Numbers in Revenue for ’21

Premise Category Total
OFF Spirits 7.25%
OFF Wine 11.5%
ON Spirits N/A
ON Wine N/A
  • The Spirits number are really close to Nielsen’s
  • The wine number, however, are not similar

Conclusions

Final Thoughts

  • Revenue Numbers were similar to Volume numbers, yet Revenue is slightly better

  • Nielsen numbers were close to SG Spirits line, yet not within the Wine line

  • The estimations are heavily depended on the Covid responses and customer behavior, which seem to be heading on a positive trend

  • It would be interesting too see the number from the first quarter of 2021 and check our estimates

Visuals

Visuals II