A (Sometimes) Monthly Analysis of Isabella County Strava (Cycling) Segments*

Data accessed July 1, 2021 (previous access June 1, 2021)

Isabella County is a 578 square mile area in the center of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula with an estimated population of 70,000 people and is home to Central Michigan University, the Isabella Indian Reservation, and is the former home of one of Katy Perry’s yachts. Every month (or so), I run a program that accesses the ten fastest bicycling performances for all of the Strava segments that I know of in the county and do some calculations to see what has been going on with some of my mid-pack friends in our tiny corner of the world.

The Basics: I developed a list of Strava bicycling segments that either start or finish within the county boundaries. Strava has segment search and explore tools but they are not particularly useful for finding all of the segments within a specific geographic area and so building the list took considerably more time and effort than I would have originally predicted and I have to add to the list as I become aware of existing segments or as new segments are created. As of the most recent analysis, my list is at 255 cycling segments. I wanted to limit any analyses to segments that met some minimum threshold of competitiveness so I have defined a segment as “real” if: 1. it has attempts by at least ten unique riders and 2. the time of the 10th fastest person is no slower than twice that of the fastest person. I have also removed segments where it is evident that the leader(s) are travelling in a car. Using these criteria, the county is left with 218 “real” segments. The map below shows each segment as a point between its start and finish with a size scaled to the average adjusted velocity of its top 10 riders (more on that below) and colored according to its geographic category. Scroll down to the bottom of the page for sortable tables of all of the segments used in this analysis.

Fig 1: Map of Segments that Begin and/or End in Isabella County colored by geographic group, sized by average adjusted speed of top 10 riders

General Classification (Yellow Jersey): Top-20 riders based on a sum of rankings from “real” segments. Each KOM gets a rider 12 points, 2nd place is worth 9 points down to 1 point for 10th place.

rank	rider	points	gravel	trail	paved	last month	difference	KOMs	top-10s
1	michael ring	900	572	123	205	880	(+20)	24	119
2	paul fox	886	572	260	54	882	(+4)	38	104
3	Paul L.	570	420	82	68	546	(+24)	11	90
4	Adam Grifka	518	353	56	109	495	(+23)	16	72
5	Grant Clarkson	451	282	107	62	411	(+40)	1	80
6	Brad Wheeler	383	307	-	76	375	(+8)	2	65
7	Jonathon Russell	373	243	41	89	350	(+23)	1	77
8	Darth Y'all -(T. Moore)	359	122	-	237	299	(+60)	13	53
9	Kevin D.	336	36	16	284	336	(0)	11	45
10	Ben Kalis	331	180	41	110	292	(+39)	9	48
11	Ross Miller	287	268	14	5	286	(+1)	4	55
12	Gabe R.	278	75	53	150	271	(+7)	5	47
13	Charlie Harrison	276	192	25	59	261	(+15)	3	49
14	Scott Daigle	268	112	20	136	237	(+31)	2	54
15	Patrick Richards	232	142	86	4	231	(+1)	1	53
16	michael seaman	227	7	13	207	206	(+21)	8	32
16	Rick T.	227	143	-	84	227	(0)	15	21
18	Lance Ferden	202	130	40	32	202	(0)	-	43
19	Jeff Scofield	184	136	14	34	173	(+11)	-	44
20	Ryan Hackett	150	-	-	150	144	(+6)	4	21
Table 1: General Clasification (Yellow Jersey). Ranking based on analysis of 227 real segments

Other Jerseys: The Polka Dot Jersey considers only segments with >=+2% average grade (yes, that is hilly in these parts) and the score weighted using climb categorization points. The Green Jersey considers only segments that are <=600 meters (0.37 miles). It does not include stop ahead sign sprints (sorry, Jeff). The White Jersey goes to the best young rider. While the pro tours might use a cut off of 23 years, this only considers riders with a known age of less than 40. The Black Jersey, on the other hand, only considers riders with a known age of 50 or greater. The Brown Jersey considers only segments that are gravel roads or dirt trails. Finally, the Clydesdale Jersey goes to the fastest rider with a known weight of 200 or more pounds.

rank	polka dot			green			white		black		brown		clydsdale
	rider	points	n	rider	points	n	rider	points	rider	points	rider	points	rider	points
1	paul fox	353K	18	michael ring	144	18	Adam Grifka	518	Scott Daigle	268	paul fox	886	Brad Wheeler	383
2	michael ring	324K	19	paul fox	135	16	Brad Wheeler	383	Patrick Richards	232	michael ring	900	Ross Miller	287
3	Paul L.	278K	15	Gabe R.	100	13	Ben Kalis	331	Lance Ferden	202	Paul L.	570	Patrick Richards	232
4	Ross Miller	211K	15	Darth Y'all -(T. Moore)	68	8	Gabe R.	278	Jeff Scofield	184	Adam Grifka	518	Incomplete Podium	-
5	Adam Grifka	210K	8	Adam Grifka	53	7	Ryan Hackett	150	EastWestDoc Vogel	120	Grant Clarkson	451	Not Even Podium	-
Polka Dot Jersey: 35 segments with at least 2 percent grade
Green Jersey: 30 segments up to 600 meters long
White Jersey: Only riders who are super young (under 40)
Black Jersey: Only riders who are super old (over 50)
Brown Jersey: dirt (gravel and trail) segments only
Clydesdale Jersey: known weight of at least 200 pounds

New KOMs: This table identifies the changes in KOMs since the last time that the records were accessed. It does not recognize new ties at the KOM position and does not, unfortunately, capture any changes during the interim period.

rank	segment	new KOM	old KOM	new time	old time	drop	%
1	What are you doing out here	Ben Kalis	paul fox	1:56	2:26	0:30	79.5
2	Boneless Wing	Adam Grifka	Darth Y'all -(T. Moore)	2:07	2:21	0:14	90.1
3	The Great MT Pleasant Salt Flats	Brad Wheeler	michael ring	2:03	2:16	0:13	90.4
4	Curvy Johnson	Darth Y'all -(T. Moore)	michael ring, michael seaman	2:16	2:30	0:14	90.7
5	Maple Creek	Darth Y'all -(T. Moore)	Kris James	1:17	1:19	0:02	97.5
6	The Bundy Blitz	Ross Miller	Ross Miller	35:49	36:13	0:24	98.9
Table 3: New KOMs

Most Improved Segments: The ten segments whose aggregated top 10 times have dropped the most (measured as a % of the previous aggregated sum) since the last time that the records were accessed.

rank	segment	drop	%
1	Boneless Wing	4:42	85.2
2	Amish Dune Buggy	4:00	89.9
3	What are you doing out here	1:30	94.3
4	Little upward curve	0:50	96.2
4	Punch	0:15	96.2
6	Climb this little thing	0:16	97.1
7	Curvy Johnson	0:42	97.4
8	The Great MT Pleasant Salt Flats	0:23	98.6
9	dodge the walkers	0:21	98.7
10	Bundy Hill	0:34	99.1
Table 4: Ten most improved segments

“New” segments: Segments added to this list since the last update including segments that have been created recently and segments whose existence I discovered recently.

segment	surface	type	geo	real?
Curve du jort	dirt	road	BL	yes
Gotta Pay the Troll Toll	paved	road	NORTHPAVED	yes
One hit two hit	paved	road	NORTHPAVED	yes
Real Big Johnson	dirt	road	BL	yes
The Holy Sprint	paved	road	NORTHPAVED	yes
Table 5: Segments added to this list since the last update

“Fastest” and “Slowest” Segments: I have conjured up several different methods for trying to figure out how to make effective comparisons between segments and I don’t really like any of them. My least unfavorite one is a method that uses an adjusted average velocity of the top 10 for a segment. The adjustment comes from two aspects of a segment that Strava measures: distance and slope. All other things being equal, riders ride more slowly on longer segments and segment that are steeper (uphill). After separating segments into categories of paved, gravel, and trail, I used a linear model to correct for distance and then slope. It’s not a perfect method (or even a good one) but it’s a start… Anyway, using this method, here are the 10 “fastest” and 10 “slowest” segments in the county.

paved				gravel				trail
rank	segment	ave (mpg)	adj (mph)	rank	segment	ave (mpg)	adj (mph)	rank	segment	ave (mpg)	adj (mph)
1	l Climbed Mount Pleasant	34.0	36.4	1	Final Push To Bike League Hill	26.9	27.5	1	The Sands of Time	21.0	21.4
2	TTT Mini-Route	31.4	31.4	2	The Dipshit Bomb	29.0	25.9	2	Sled Zeppelin	21.7	21.0
3	Le Tour de Mont Pleasant Criterium	30.9	31.0	3	The Thighmaster	24.5	25.7	3	Get there	19.6	19.8
4	Three Leaves Cruise	30.5	30.9	4	The Juicy Sprint	28.6	25.6	4	Faster Slower Medium Pace	18.6	18.8
5	Last Mile	30.8	30.5	5	Crybaby Hill	19.1	25.3	5	kcarT elpirT	17.6	17.9
6	Eisenhower to Jackson	30.6	30.2	6	GurskyMannschafts Dirty Dump	30.2	25.1	6	Le Frost Cross	16.8	17.4
7	2015 3 Lane Sprint Finish	30.0	30.1	7	Get me to the Church on Time	22.7	25.0	7	Gursky Mannschaft Segment of Doom	17.0	17.4
8	TdMP 2012 Crit Lap	30.1	30.1	8	Slap Earl In Dz Nutz	24.3	24.7	8	Little snot rocket	17.1	17.3
9	Denison Jaunt	28.4	30.0	9	Sofa King Tired	25.9	24.4	9	The equalizer	14.4	17.2
10	Descent into Sheperd	30.9	29.8	10	WTF	22.4	24.2	10	The epic descents of Willi Feisterbut	17.7	17.0
90	Mount Pleasant Commute	18.6	18.8	88	Not-a-waa-to-start	16.0	17.8	22	The Shawk	14.1	15.1
91	Pere Marquette RT Clare to Leaton	18.1	18.4	89	The Ol In Out	15.6	17.7	23	Shea Vinnerbushs Rowdy Ridge	13.9	14.6
92	Peoples to Wyman	17.8	18.3	90	Malleys West	16.8	17.3	24	Muddy loop	13.6	14.2
93	Island Park to Nelson Park 12127203	17.0	18.3	91	Big Dipper	15.8	17.0	25	Anita Mannschaft Segment of Hills	13.2	13.8
94	Rolland Hill Number 1	15.8	17.9	92	Elohyek	13.8	16.9	26	North Clockwise Vogelwald 11 2020	13.1	13.8
95	Rollan Hills	16.6	17.3	93	Dont Tread on Me	13.4	16.6	27	Woody Climb	12.3	13.0
96	Nelson Park to Chipp A Water	15.9	16.4	94	Amish Dune Buggy	13.0	16.4	28	The Iguanas Claw	13.7	13.0
97	My Camino is Grande er	15.4	16.0	95	Rollercoaster into Blanchard	14.3	15.6	29	slliH fo tnemgeS tfahcsnnaM atinA	9.6	10.2
98	dodge the walkers	14.8	15.4	96	The Wooded Wormhole	15.0	13.4	30	South Clockwise Vogelwald 11 2020	8.6	9.0
99	Rip by the Chipp	14.2	15.0	97	Nottawa Deerfield to Bluegrass	11.3	8.8	31	OPPs Carousel	9.0	8.9
Table 6: Fastest (and slowest) segments by mean velocity adjusted for distance and slope

Table 7: Sortable, searchable list of all known “real” segment in Isabella County.

Table 7: Sortable, searchable list of all known non-“real” segment in Isabella County.

Figure 2: Sankey diagram showing segment categorizations. For the slope categories: “climb” is 2% or greater “up” is between 0 and 2% “flat” is 0% “down” is between 0 and -2% “dump” is -2% or greater.